强对流临近预警中集合预报成员的即时分析——以陇东一次暴雨过程ECMWF集合预报应用为例
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摘要
2015年5月31日甘肃陇东地区出现一次暴雨天气过程,ECMWF集合预报系统的降水预报只有1个成员(简称EM-p)预报出暴雨,并且EM-p对预报暴雨落区、量级和降水时段的预报与观测实况基本接近。本文通过对EM-p和集合预报系统控制成员预报效果的对比分析,以及EM-p与实况的对比分析表明,EM-p对产生暴雨的对流参数预报完全符合本地经验指标,虽然对低层急流预报出现一定程度偏差,但对低层辐合区(暴雨落区)位置的预报与观测实况极为接近,因此EM-p成员能够为暴雨的短时预报和临近预警提供可靠的定量依据,可有效提前暴雨预警时间。通过分析,期望为如何利用ECMWF集合预报有效判断低概率但高影响天气的发生提供一些有益的思路。
As for the heavy rain occurred in the eastern Gansu on 31 May 2015,only one ensemble-member( shorten as EM-p) of ECMWF ensemble forecast system predicted this heavy rain process accurately. The data of the predicted precipitation area,intensity,and rainfall time by EM-p are closer to that of the observation. In this paper,a comparative analysis of the forecast of EM-p,the forecast of control ensemble-member,and observation was conducted. The result indicated that the predicted convection parameters of the heavy rain by EM-p are consistent with the local experience. EM-p can accurately predict the location of the lower-level convergence area( the heavy rain area) although with a deviation in the prediction of lower-level jet. Therefore,EM-p can provide a reliable basis for the short-term forecast and warning of heavy rain,which can also advance the heavy rain warning time effectively. It is hoped to provide a reference for howto improve the forecasting ability of lowprobability but high impact weather by using the ECMWF ensemble forecast system by analyzing this case.
As for the heavy rain occurred in the eastern Gansu on 31 May 2015,only one ensemble-member( shorten as EM-p) of ECMWF ensemble forecast system predicted this heavy rain process accurately. The data of the predicted precipitation area,intensity,and rainfall time by EM-p are closer to that of the observation. In this paper,a comparative analysis of the forecast of EM-p,the forecast of control ensemble-member,and observation was conducted. The result indicated that the predicted convection parameters of the heavy rain by EM-p are consistent with the local experience. EM-p can accurately predict the location of the lower-level convergence area( the heavy rain area) although with a deviation in the prediction of lower-level jet. Therefore,EM-p can provide a reliable basis for the short-term forecast and warning of heavy rain,which can also advance the heavy rain warning time effectively. It is hoped to provide a reference for howto improve the forecasting ability of lowprobability but high impact weather by using the ECMWF ensemble forecast system by analyzing this case.
引文
Andersson E,Anders P,Tsonevsky I,2015.User Guide to ECMWFForecast Products(version 1.2)[M].ECMWF,Reading,UK.
Brooks H E,Doswell C A,1993.New technology and numerical weather prediction:A wasted opportunity[J].Weather,48:173-177.
Buizza R,Milleer M,Palmer T N,1999.Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,125(560):2887-2908.DOI:10.1002/qj.49712556006.
Doswell C A,1996a.Short-range ensemble forecasting:concepts for application to severe thunderstorms[C].5th Australian Severe Thunderstorm Conference.
Doswell C A,Brooks H E,Maddox R A,1996b.Flash flood forecasting:An ingredients-based methodology[J].Wea Forecasting,11:560-581.DOI:10.1175/1520-0434(1996)011<0560:FFFAIB>2.0.CO;2.
Molteni F,Plamer T N,Buizza R,et al,1996.The ECMWF ensemble prediction system methodology and verification[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,122:73-121.DOI:10.1256/smsqj.52904.
Nedjeljka Z,Buizza R,2015.A three-dimensional multivariate modal analysis of atmospheric predictability with application to the ECMWFensemble[J].J Atmos Sci,72(11):4423-4444.DOI:10.1175/JAS-D-15-0061.1.
Palmer T,Buizza R,Doblas-Reyes F,et al,2009.Stochastic parametrization and model uncertainty[M].Tech Memo 598,ECMWF,Reading,UK.
Stensrud D J,Bao J,Werner T,2000.Using initial condition and model physics perturbation in short-rang ensemble simulation of mesoscale connective system[J].Mon Wea Rev,128:2077-2107.
Tsonevsky I,2015.User guide to ECMWF forecast products(V1.2)[M].ECMWF,Reading,UK.
白晓平,王式功,赵璐,等,2016.西北地区东部短时强降水概念模型[J].高原气象,35(5):1248-1256.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00102.
蔡沅辰,闵锦忠,庄潇然,2017.不同随机物理扰动方案在一次暴雨集合预报中的对比研究[J].高原气象,36(2):407-423.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00024.
陈博宇,郭云谦,代刊,等,2016.面向台风暴雨的集合预报成员优选订正技术研究及应用试验[J].气象,42(12):1465-1475.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.12.004.
陈茂钦,徐海明,2011.江淮锋面和华南暖区两次暴雨过程可预报性对比[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),3(2):118-127.
丑纪范,2011.天气和气候的可预报性[J].气象科技进展,1(2):11-14.
丁一汇,2005.高等天气学[M].北京:气象出版社,324-325.
董全,金荣花,代刊,等,2016.ECMWF集合预报和确定性预报对淮河流域暴雨预报的对比分析[J].气象,42(9):1146-1153.
杜均,Grumm R H,邓国,2014.预报异常极端高影响天气的“集合异常预报法”:以北京2012年7月21日特大暴雨为例[J].大气科学,38(4):685-699.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13218.
杜钧,陈静,2010.单一值预报向概率预报转变的基础:谈谈集合预报及其带来的变革[J].气象,36(11):1-11.
康岚,郝丽萍,蒲吉光,等,2016.对两次持续性暴雨过程落区预报的探讨[J].高原气象,35(6):1540-1550.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00101.
李俊,杜均,王明欢,等,2009.中尺度暴雨集合预报系统研发中的初值扰动试验[J].高原气象,28(6):1365-1375.
李俊,廖移山,张兵,等,2007.集合数值预报方法在山洪预报中的初步应用[J].高原气象,26(4):854-861.
李晓霞,尚大成,谌芸,等,2013.甘肃陇南两次不同强度暴雨天气的中尺度特征分析[J].高原气象,32(5):1389-1399.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00130.
潘留杰,张宏芳,侯建忠,等,2015.弱天气系统强迫下黄土高原强对流云的初生及演变[J].高原气象,34(4):982-990.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00015.
漆梁波,2015.高分辨率数值模式在强对流天气预警中的业务应用进展[J].气象,41(6):661-673.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2015.06.001.
石岚,徐丽娜,郝玉珠,2017.多模式风速融合预报应用研究[J].高原气象,36(4):1022-1028.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00021.
谭燕,陈葆德,2014.多种扰动组合的热带气旋路径集合预报技术研究[J].高原气象,33(4):1012-1021.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00068.
王宝鉴,孔祥伟,傅朝,等,2016.甘肃陇东南一次大暴雨的中尺度特征分析[J].高原气象,35(6):1551-1564.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00114.
王晨稀,姚建群,2008.对一次局地短时强降水过程的集合预报研究[J].高原气象,27(6):1229-1239.
王毅,何立富,代刊,等,2017.集合敏感性方法在高原涡和西南涡引发暴雨过程中的应用[J].高原气象,36(5):1245-1256.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00102.
肖玉华,何光碧,陈静,等,2011.区域集合预报增长模繁殖扰动方法研究[J].高原气象,30(1):94-102.
许东蓓,许爱华,肖玮,等,2015.中国西北四省区强对流天气形势配置及特殊性综合分析[J].高原气象,34(4):973-981.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00102.
张小玲,陶诗言,孙建华,2010.基于“配料”的暴雨预报[J].大气科学,34(4):754-756.
赵庆云,傅朝,刘新伟,等,2017.西北东部暖区大暴雨中尺度系统演变特征[J].高原气象,36(3):697-704.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00140.
Brooks H E,Doswell C A,1993.New technology and numerical weather prediction:A wasted opportunity[J].Weather,48:173-177.
Buizza R,Milleer M,Palmer T N,1999.Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,125(560):2887-2908.DOI:10.1002/qj.49712556006.
Doswell C A,1996a.Short-range ensemble forecasting:concepts for application to severe thunderstorms[C].5th Australian Severe Thunderstorm Conference.
Doswell C A,Brooks H E,Maddox R A,1996b.Flash flood forecasting:An ingredients-based methodology[J].Wea Forecasting,11:560-581.DOI:10.1175/1520-0434(1996)011<0560:FFFAIB>2.0.CO;2.
Molteni F,Plamer T N,Buizza R,et al,1996.The ECMWF ensemble prediction system methodology and verification[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,122:73-121.DOI:10.1256/smsqj.52904.
Nedjeljka Z,Buizza R,2015.A three-dimensional multivariate modal analysis of atmospheric predictability with application to the ECMWFensemble[J].J Atmos Sci,72(11):4423-4444.DOI:10.1175/JAS-D-15-0061.1.
Palmer T,Buizza R,Doblas-Reyes F,et al,2009.Stochastic parametrization and model uncertainty[M].Tech Memo 598,ECMWF,Reading,UK.
Stensrud D J,Bao J,Werner T,2000.Using initial condition and model physics perturbation in short-rang ensemble simulation of mesoscale connective system[J].Mon Wea Rev,128:2077-2107.
Tsonevsky I,2015.User guide to ECMWF forecast products(V1.2)[M].ECMWF,Reading,UK.
白晓平,王式功,赵璐,等,2016.西北地区东部短时强降水概念模型[J].高原气象,35(5):1248-1256.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00102.
蔡沅辰,闵锦忠,庄潇然,2017.不同随机物理扰动方案在一次暴雨集合预报中的对比研究[J].高原气象,36(2):407-423.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00024.
陈博宇,郭云谦,代刊,等,2016.面向台风暴雨的集合预报成员优选订正技术研究及应用试验[J].气象,42(12):1465-1475.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.12.004.
陈茂钦,徐海明,2011.江淮锋面和华南暖区两次暴雨过程可预报性对比[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),3(2):118-127.
丑纪范,2011.天气和气候的可预报性[J].气象科技进展,1(2):11-14.
丁一汇,2005.高等天气学[M].北京:气象出版社,324-325.
董全,金荣花,代刊,等,2016.ECMWF集合预报和确定性预报对淮河流域暴雨预报的对比分析[J].气象,42(9):1146-1153.
杜均,Grumm R H,邓国,2014.预报异常极端高影响天气的“集合异常预报法”:以北京2012年7月21日特大暴雨为例[J].大气科学,38(4):685-699.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2013.13218.
杜钧,陈静,2010.单一值预报向概率预报转变的基础:谈谈集合预报及其带来的变革[J].气象,36(11):1-11.
康岚,郝丽萍,蒲吉光,等,2016.对两次持续性暴雨过程落区预报的探讨[J].高原气象,35(6):1540-1550.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00101.
李俊,杜均,王明欢,等,2009.中尺度暴雨集合预报系统研发中的初值扰动试验[J].高原气象,28(6):1365-1375.
李俊,廖移山,张兵,等,2007.集合数值预报方法在山洪预报中的初步应用[J].高原气象,26(4):854-861.
李晓霞,尚大成,谌芸,等,2013.甘肃陇南两次不同强度暴雨天气的中尺度特征分析[J].高原气象,32(5):1389-1399.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2012.00130.
潘留杰,张宏芳,侯建忠,等,2015.弱天气系统强迫下黄土高原强对流云的初生及演变[J].高原气象,34(4):982-990.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00015.
漆梁波,2015.高分辨率数值模式在强对流天气预警中的业务应用进展[J].气象,41(6):661-673.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2015.06.001.
石岚,徐丽娜,郝玉珠,2017.多模式风速融合预报应用研究[J].高原气象,36(4):1022-1028.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2017.00021.
谭燕,陈葆德,2014.多种扰动组合的热带气旋路径集合预报技术研究[J].高原气象,33(4):1012-1021.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2013.00068.
王宝鉴,孔祥伟,傅朝,等,2016.甘肃陇东南一次大暴雨的中尺度特征分析[J].高原气象,35(6):1551-1564.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2015.00114.
王晨稀,姚建群,2008.对一次局地短时强降水过程的集合预报研究[J].高原气象,27(6):1229-1239.
王毅,何立富,代刊,等,2017.集合敏感性方法在高原涡和西南涡引发暴雨过程中的应用[J].高原气象,36(5):1245-1256.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00102.
肖玉华,何光碧,陈静,等,2011.区域集合预报增长模繁殖扰动方法研究[J].高原气象,30(1):94-102.
许东蓓,许爱华,肖玮,等,2015.中国西北四省区强对流天气形势配置及特殊性综合分析[J].高原气象,34(4):973-981.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2014.00102.
张小玲,陶诗言,孙建华,2010.基于“配料”的暴雨预报[J].大气科学,34(4):754-756.
赵庆云,傅朝,刘新伟,等,2017.西北东部暖区大暴雨中尺度系统演变特征[J].高原气象,36(3):697-704.DOI:10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2016.00140.