石化基地生态环境系统脆弱性演化机理——以连云港为例
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摘要
通过梳理国内外文献,挖掘脆弱性本质,提出普遍适用于生态系统脆弱性的PIR理论框架,并从人-环境耦合角度构建演化模型探究石化基地生态环境系统脆弱性演化机理。研究发现:生态系统脆弱性来源于压力扰动,体现在暴露性与敏感性的联合效应,而最终取决于弹性应对影响的状态。石化基地是一个多层次闭环系统,在压力影响下,暴露性、敏感性及弹性彼此间的双重导向作用决定着脆弱性的演化进程;内外部人文与环境因素变化是脆弱性的潜在驱动力,而压力源增多、暴露比例扩大、敏感性上升、弹性退化以及缺乏环境治理能力是加剧脆弱性的具体表征。以欠发达地区连云港石化基地为例,模拟其系统脆弱性演化过程,并从压力、暴露性、敏感性、自我恢复能力和人工修复能力方面构建评价指标体系。结论与建议不仅对石化基地所在欠发达地区的可持续发展具有启示意义,还为其生态环境系统脆弱性的进一步评价提供理论依据。
Based on reviewing the previous literature and excavating the essence of vulnerability, this paper proposed a theoretical framework that is generally applicable to ecosystem vulnerability, and then the evolution model was constructed from the perspective of the coupling between human and environment to explore the evolution mechanism of eco-environmental system vulnerability in petrochemical bases. The study finds that ecosystem vulnerability is derived from pressure disturbance. It is reflected in the combined effects of exposure and sensitivity, and ultimately depends on the state that resilience copes with impact. As a multi-level closed-loop system, petrochemical base is disturbed by various pressures, and the interactions among exposure, sensitivity and resilience determine the evolution of system vulnerability. Internal and external human and environmental factors are potential drivers of vulnerability, and the increase in pressure sources, exposure ratio and sensitivity, the degradation of resilience and lack of environmental governance capacity are concrete features that exacerbate vulnerability. Finally, taking Lianyungang petrochemical base as an example, the evolution process of system vulnerability is simulated, and the evaluation index system is built from the aspects of pressure, exposure, sensitivity, self-recovery and artificial repair capacity. The conclusions and suggestions in this paper not only have implications significance for the sustainable development of underdeveloped areas where the petrochemical base is located, but also provide theoretical basis for the further evaluation of the eco-environmental system vulnerability.
Based on reviewing the previous literature and excavating the essence of vulnerability, this paper proposed a theoretical framework that is generally applicable to ecosystem vulnerability, and then the evolution model was constructed from the perspective of the coupling between human and environment to explore the evolution mechanism of eco-environmental system vulnerability in petrochemical bases. The study finds that ecosystem vulnerability is derived from pressure disturbance. It is reflected in the combined effects of exposure and sensitivity, and ultimately depends on the state that resilience copes with impact. As a multi-level closed-loop system, petrochemical base is disturbed by various pressures, and the interactions among exposure, sensitivity and resilience determine the evolution of system vulnerability. Internal and external human and environmental factors are potential drivers of vulnerability, and the increase in pressure sources, exposure ratio and sensitivity, the degradation of resilience and lack of environmental governance capacity are concrete features that exacerbate vulnerability. Finally, taking Lianyungang petrochemical base as an example, the evolution process of system vulnerability is simulated, and the evaluation index system is built from the aspects of pressure, exposure, sensitivity, self-recovery and artificial repair capacity. The conclusions and suggestions in this paper not only have implications significance for the sustainable development of underdeveloped areas where the petrochemical base is located, but also provide theoretical basis for the further evaluation of the eco-environmental system vulnerability.
引文
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[4] Kumar K S K,Parikh J.Indian agriculture and climate sensitivity.Global Environmental Change,2001,11(2):147-154.
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[6] 曹雪琴.加快城市化与生态环境系统建设.经济经纬,2001,(6):67-69.
[7] Yoo G,Kim A R,Hadi S.A methodology to assess environmental vulnerability in a coastal city:application to Jakarta,Indonesia.Ocean & Coastal Management,2014,102:169-177.
[8] Nandy S,Singh C,Das K K,Kingma N C,Kushwaha S P S.Environmental vulnerability assessment of eco-development zone of Great Himalayan National Park,Himachal Pradesh,India.Ecological Indicators,2015,57:182-195.
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[11] Celikyilmaz A G.Vulnerability of the Black Sea to the impacts of climate change.Environmental security in watersheds:the Sea of Azov.Netherlands:Springer-Dordrecht,2012:173-180.
[12] Trueba S,Pouteau R,Lens F,Feild T S,Isnard S,Olson M E,Delzon S.Vulnerability to xylem embolism as a major correlate of the environmental distribution of rain forest species on a tropical island.Plant Cell and Environment,2017,40(2):277-289.
[13] Al-Kalbani M S,Price M F,Abahussain A,Ahmed M,O′Higgins T.Vulnerability assessment of environmental and climate change impacts on water resources in Al Jabal Al Akhdar,Sultanate of Oman.Water (Switzerland),2014,6(10):3118-3135.
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[16] 胡静涛.化工园区危险脆弱性分析[D].哈尔滨理工大学,2014.
[17] 朱卫东.核电厂安全事故应急管理的脆弱性评估研究[D].哈尔滨工程大学,2011.
[18] 刘玒玒,解建仓,张建龙.陕北能源化工基地生态脆弱性评价.黑龙江大学工程学报,2012,3(1):61-64.
[19] 李风军,冯晓秀,陆桂琴.宁东能源化工基地生态环境脆弱性评价研究.生态科学,2014,33(5):1017-1022.
[20] Aretano R,Semeraro T,Petrosillo I,De Marco A,Pasimeni M R,Zurlini G.Mapping ecological vulnerability to fire for effective conservation management of natural protected areas.Ecological Modelling,2015,295:163-175.
[21] Aslam A Q,Ahmad S R,Ahmad I,Hussain Y,Hussain M S.Vulnerability and impact assessment of extreme climatic event:a case study of southern Punjab,Pakistan.Science of the Total Environment,2017,580:468-481.
[22] Xu Y,Shen Z H,Ying L X,Ciais P,Liu H Y,Piao S L,Wen C,Jiang Y X.The exposure,sensitivity and vulnerability of natural vegetation in China to climate thermal variability (1901-2013):an indicator-based approach.Ecological Indicators,2016,63:258-272.
[23] Hong W Y,Jiang R R,Yang C Y,Zhang F F,Su M,Liao Q.Establishing an ecological vulnerability assessment indicator system for spatial recognition and management of ecologically vulnerable areas in highly urbanized regions:a case study of Shenzhen,China.Ecological Indicators,2016,69:540-547.
[24] Pandey R,Bardsley D K.Social-ecological vulnerability to climate change in the Nepali Himalaya.Applied Geography,2015,64:74-86.
[25] Ogiea R I,Dunnb S,Holdernessa T,Turpin,E.Assessing the vulnerability of pumping stations to trash blockage in coastal mega-cities of developing nations.Sustainable Cities and Society,2017,28:53-66.
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[28] 王志杰,苏嫄.南水北调中线汉中市水源地生态脆弱性评价与特征分析.生态学报,2018,38(02):432-442.
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