遵义市旅游与新型城镇化耦合协调发展分析及预测研究
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摘要
将"旅游"和"新型城镇化"视为具有共生关系的系统,研究其耦合协调度有利于正确认知两者关系,为两者协调发展提供依据。文章以遵义市2008年至2017年间旅游和新型城镇化发展数据为支撑,通过耦合协调模型和灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对"旅游-新型城镇化"系统耦合协调度进行分析和预测,结果发现:(1)遵义市旅游和新型城镇化发展均呈上升趋势,其中旅游上升幅度更大;(2)遵义市旅游和新型城镇化发展相关性随时间逐年增强;(3)遵义市"旅游-新型城镇化"系统耦合协调度整体上升,两者关系由拮抗转为促进;(4)未来三年,遵义市旅游和新型城镇化耦合协调发展关系将进一步优化。最后,文章从产业发展、结构转型等方面提出了遵义市旅游和城镇化发展建议。
"Tourism" and "new-type urbanization" are regarded as a symbiotic system, and the study of their coupling coordination degree is conducive to a correct cognition of the relationship between the two, providing a basis for their coordinated development. Based on the relevant data of Zunyi city from 2008 to 2017, a coupling coordination model and a grey forecast model was built respectively to analyze and forecast the coupling coordination degree of "tourism & new-type urbanization" system. It was found that:(1) there is a general uptrend in both tourism and new-type urbanization of Zunyi, between which the one of tourism is greater.(2) the correlation between the development of tourism and new-type urbanization has been increasing year by year.(3) the coupling and coordination degree of the "tourism & new-type urbanization" system has been going up year by year; besides, the relationship between the two has changed from antagonism to promotion.(4) in the next 3 years, the relationship between the two will be further optimized. Finally, suggestions on the development of tourism and new-type urbanization were put forward from the aspects of industrial development and structural transformation.
"Tourism" and "new-type urbanization" are regarded as a symbiotic system, and the study of their coupling coordination degree is conducive to a correct cognition of the relationship between the two, providing a basis for their coordinated development. Based on the relevant data of Zunyi city from 2008 to 2017, a coupling coordination model and a grey forecast model was built respectively to analyze and forecast the coupling coordination degree of "tourism & new-type urbanization" system. It was found that:(1) there is a general uptrend in both tourism and new-type urbanization of Zunyi, between which the one of tourism is greater.(2) the correlation between the development of tourism and new-type urbanization has been increasing year by year.(3) the coupling and coordination degree of the "tourism & new-type urbanization" system has been going up year by year; besides, the relationship between the two has changed from antagonism to promotion.(4) in the next 3 years, the relationship between the two will be further optimized. Finally, suggestions on the development of tourism and new-type urbanization were put forward from the aspects of industrial development and structural transformation.
引文
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[12]何学海.基于区位熵理论的贵州省旅游产业集聚度研究[J].遵义师范学院学报,2017,19(1):45-49.
[13]刘珊珊,郭旭,孙龙建.遵义市旅游产业现状及发展战略选择[J].贵州商学院学报,2016,29(4):19-26.
[14]陈茹茜.基于游客满意度的遵义乡村旅游发展策略探讨[J].遵义师范学院学报,2015,17(4):39-42.
[15]黄冬梅,何学海.遵义市旅游-经济-生态环境耦合协调研究[J].遵义师范学院学报,2018,20(4):41-44,52.
[16]廖重斌.环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系[J].热带地理, 1999,19(2):171-177.
[2]余凤龙,黄震方,曹芳东,等.中国城镇化进程对旅游经济发展的影响[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(08):1297-1309.
[3]黄震方,陆林,苏勤,等.新型城镇化背景下的乡村旅游发展——理论反思与困境突破[J].地理研究,2015,34(08):1409-1421.
[4]麻学锋,崔盼盼.集中连片特困区城镇化对旅游产业成长响应的实证分析-以大湘西为例[J].中央民族大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,45(01):66-75.
[5]李志飞,曹珍珠.旅游引导的新型城镇化:一个多维度的中外比较研究[J].旅游学刊,2015,30(07):16-25.
[6]王华.旅游引导的新型农村城镇化研究——以丹霞山瑶塘村与断石村为例[J].地理科学,2016,36(06):863-870.
[7]王琴梅,方妮.乡村生态旅游促进新型城镇化的实证分析——以西安市长安区为例[J].旅游学刊,2017,32(01):77-88.
[8]徐洁,华钢,胡平.城市化水平与旅游发展之关系初探——基于我国改革开放三十年的时间序列动态计量分析[J].人文地理,2012,112(2):85-90.
[9]王恩旭,吴燕,谷云华.中国旅游产业与城镇化耦合协调发展评价研究[J].旅游论坛,2015,8(1):7-12.
[10]王坤,黄震方.区域旅游经济与城镇化耦合协调发展空间格局及驱动机制——以长三角地区为例[J].南京师大学报(自然科学版),2016,39(01):101-107+116.
[11]赵陈,宋雪茜,方一平.四川省旅游与城镇化耦合协调度及其空间差异[J].山地学报,2017,35(03):369-379.
[12]何学海.基于区位熵理论的贵州省旅游产业集聚度研究[J].遵义师范学院学报,2017,19(1):45-49.
[13]刘珊珊,郭旭,孙龙建.遵义市旅游产业现状及发展战略选择[J].贵州商学院学报,2016,29(4):19-26.
[14]陈茹茜.基于游客满意度的遵义乡村旅游发展策略探讨[J].遵义师范学院学报,2015,17(4):39-42.
[15]黄冬梅,何学海.遵义市旅游-经济-生态环境耦合协调研究[J].遵义师范学院学报,2018,20(4):41-44,52.
[16]廖重斌.环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系[J].热带地理, 1999,19(2):171-177.