旅游业集聚与城镇化的非线性效应——基于面板平滑转换回归模型的实证分析
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摘要
文章基于旅游业集聚影响城镇化的理论机制的阐述,利用中国30个省级单元1999—2013年面板数据,以旅游业集聚水平作为转换变量,采用面板平滑转换回归模型,对旅游业集聚与城镇化之间的非线性关系进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:首先,旅游业集聚对城镇化存在显著正向影响;其次,以旅游业集聚作为转换变量,旅游业集聚的城镇化效应存在显著的门槛特征;最后,旅游业集聚与旅游业集聚的城镇化效应之间显著正相关,在旅游业集聚的初始阶段,旅游业集聚的城镇化效应处于低机制,当旅游业集聚跨越门槛值后,旅游业集聚的城镇化效应则缓慢平滑地转换为高机制,并且旅游业集聚水平的提升会强化其对城镇化正向影响的边际效应。
The article first explains the theoretical mechanism of tourism agglomeration affecting urbanization, uses panel data of 30 provincial units in China from 1999 to 2013, takes the level of tourism agglomeration as the transformation variable, and adopts panel smoothing transition regression(PSTR) model to test the nonlinear relationship between tourism agglomeration and urbanization. Empirical results indicate that: firstly, tourism agglomeration has a significant positive impact on urbanization; secondly, taking tourism agglomeration as a transformation variable, the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration has a significant threshold feature; finally, there is a significant positive correlation between tourism agglomeration and the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration. At the initial stage of tourism agglomeration, the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration is in low regime. When tourism agglomeration overtakes the threshold, the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration is slow and smooth transition to a high regime. In addition, the increase in the level of tourism agglomeration will strengthen the marginal urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration.The conclusion of this paper, at the initial stage of tourism agglomeration, the agglomeration produced by the attraction of tourism product that attributes to satisfy the novelty-seeking mentality of tourist market has become the main factor, but this mechanism will show signs of weakening along with the aesthetic fatigue of tourist market. In other words, the speed of innovative supply of tourism products lags behind the speed of the change of market demand of tourist market. As a result, the unbalanced supply and demand of tourism industry will further hinder the intensity of tourism agglomeration, then making the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration in a low-impact stage. However, with the dynamic evolution of tourism agglomeration, especially the tourism agglomeration mode driven by technological innovation of tourism products, it provides an important endogenous driving force for the upgrading of tourism agglomeration level. When the tourism agglomeration level overtakes the threshold, the marginal effect of urbanization of tourism agglomeration will gradually increase to a higher level. Therefore, in order to promote the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration from low mechanism to high mechanism, on the one hand, we should continue to cultivate tourism agglomeration, and broaden the influence channels of tourism agglomeration on urbanization so as to enhance the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration; On the other hand, in order to promote the urbanization process,we need to strengthen the relevant macroscopic factors while paying full attention to other determinants of urbanization. The spillover effect of economic factors on tourism agglomeration provides favorable external conditions for the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration.
The article first explains the theoretical mechanism of tourism agglomeration affecting urbanization, uses panel data of 30 provincial units in China from 1999 to 2013, takes the level of tourism agglomeration as the transformation variable, and adopts panel smoothing transition regression(PSTR) model to test the nonlinear relationship between tourism agglomeration and urbanization. Empirical results indicate that: firstly, tourism agglomeration has a significant positive impact on urbanization; secondly, taking tourism agglomeration as a transformation variable, the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration has a significant threshold feature; finally, there is a significant positive correlation between tourism agglomeration and the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration. At the initial stage of tourism agglomeration, the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration is in low regime. When tourism agglomeration overtakes the threshold, the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration is slow and smooth transition to a high regime. In addition, the increase in the level of tourism agglomeration will strengthen the marginal urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration.The conclusion of this paper, at the initial stage of tourism agglomeration, the agglomeration produced by the attraction of tourism product that attributes to satisfy the novelty-seeking mentality of tourist market has become the main factor, but this mechanism will show signs of weakening along with the aesthetic fatigue of tourist market. In other words, the speed of innovative supply of tourism products lags behind the speed of the change of market demand of tourist market. As a result, the unbalanced supply and demand of tourism industry will further hinder the intensity of tourism agglomeration, then making the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration in a low-impact stage. However, with the dynamic evolution of tourism agglomeration, especially the tourism agglomeration mode driven by technological innovation of tourism products, it provides an important endogenous driving force for the upgrading of tourism agglomeration level. When the tourism agglomeration level overtakes the threshold, the marginal effect of urbanization of tourism agglomeration will gradually increase to a higher level. Therefore, in order to promote the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration from low mechanism to high mechanism, on the one hand, we should continue to cultivate tourism agglomeration, and broaden the influence channels of tourism agglomeration on urbanization so as to enhance the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration; On the other hand, in order to promote the urbanization process,we need to strengthen the relevant macroscopic factors while paying full attention to other determinants of urbanization. The spillover effect of economic factors on tourism agglomeration provides favorable external conditions for the urbanization effect of tourism agglomeration.
引文
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[2] COHEN J,PAUL C.Agglomeration and Cost Economies for Washington State Hospital Services [J].Regional science and urban economics,2008,38(6):553-564.
[3] ASLESEN W,ISAKSEN A.New perspectives on knowledge-intensive service and innovation [J].Geografiska annaler:series B,human geography,2007,89(S1):45-58.
[4] KOLKO J.Urbanization,agglomeration,and coagglomeration of service industries [M].Chicago:University of Chicago Press,2010.
[5] YANG Y.Agglomeration density and tourism development in China:An empirical research based on dynamic panel data model [J].Tourism management,2012,33(6):1347-1359.
[6] 赵磊,方成,毛聪玲.中国存在旅游导向型城镇化吗?:基于线性和非线性的实证分析[J].旅游科学,2016,30(6):22-38.
[7] EDWARDS D,GRIFFIN T,HAYLLAR B.Urban tourism research:developing an agenda [J].Annals of tourism research,2008,35(4):1032-1052.
[8] GLADSTONE D.Tourism Urbanization in the United States [J].Urban Affairs Review,1998,34(1):3-27.
[9] GONZáLEZ A,TERASVIRTA T,DIJK D V.Panel smooth transition regression Models [R].Stockholm:Stockholm School of Economics,2005.
[10] 赵磊,方成.旅游业与经济增长的非线性门槛效应——基于面板平滑转换回归模型的实证分析[J].旅游学刊,2017,32(4):20-32.
[11] LUUKKONEN R,SAIKKONEN P,TER?SVIRTA T.Testing linearity against smooth transition autoregression [J].Biometrika,1988,75(3):491-499.
[12] 赵磊,方成,毛聪玲.旅游业与贫困减缓——来自中国的经验证据[J].旅游学刊,2018,33(5):13-25.