基于Markov链的施工度汛应急资源动态调度研究

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英文篇名：Research on Dynamic Scheduling of Emergency Resource in Construction Flood Season Based on Markov Chain 作者：韩凯 ; 彭辉 ; 罗兆英 英文作者：HAN Kai;PENG Hui;LUO Zhao-ying;College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Three Gorges University; 关键词：施工度汛 ; 应急资源调度 ; 马尔科夫链 英文关键词：construction flood season;;emergency resources scheduling;;Markov Chain 中文刊名：中国农村水利水电 英文刊名：China Rural Water and Hydropower 机构：三峡大学水利与环境学院; 出版日期：2019-02-15 出版单位：中国农村水利水电 年：2019 期：02 基金：国家自然科学基金项目(1213199) 语种：中文; 页：124-127+130 页数：5 CN：42-1419/TV ISSN：1007-2284 分类号：TV87

摘要

考虑施工度汛的动态变化特征具有无后效性,在有限应急资源的条件下,理清施工度汛应急资源调序问题的逻辑关系,从而明确资源调度需要考虑的因素。在马尔科夫理论基本方程的基础上变换得到用于施工度汛应急资源调度的基本方程,建立应急资源调度模型。对于施工度汛各危急状态给定相应的应急资源调度备选方案,拟定备选应急资源调度的初始解,代入应急资源调度模型,计算各调度策略下的期望成本,对调度方案选择进行迭代优化,寻求施工度汛应急资源的最优调度方案。结果表明:基于马尔科夫链理论进行施工度汛应急资源调度,在保证安全度汛的同时平衡应急成本与应急时间,所得到的施工度汛应急资源调度解符合工程实际,且计算方法简便,可为工程实践提供科学依据。
        Considering the dynamic change characteristics of the construction flood season, the scheduling process of the limited emergency resources is analyzed, and the logical relation of solving the emergency resource adjustment problem in the construction flood season is clarified, and the factors that the resource scheduling needs to be considered are clarified. Based on the basic equations of Markov theory, the basic equations for emergency resource scheduling in flood season construction are transformed, and an emergency resource scheduling model is established. For the emergency resource scheduling alternatives for the critical state of the construction flood season, the initial solution of the contingency resource scheduling is drawn up, the emergency resource scheduling model is replaced, the expected cost under each scheduling strategy is calculated, the scheduling scheme selection is iteratively optimized, and the optimal scheduling scheme for the emergency resources of the construction flood season is sought. The results show that the emergency resource scheduling of construction flood season based on Markov chain theory can balance the emergency cost and emergency time at the same time to ensure the safety of the flood season, and the emergency resource scheduling solution for the construction of the flood season is in line with the engineering practice, and the calculation method is simple, which can provide a scientific basis for the engineering practice.

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