基于生态足迹法的水资源承载力研究——以北京市为例
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摘要
为分析和评估区域水资源可持续发展状态,以水资源生态足迹系统的框架体系作为基础,引入水资源足迹广度与深度,区分水资源流量资本与存量资本,结合北京市实际情况,在现有人口和水资源条件下,计算水资源生态承载力的同时探讨改进的差分自回归移动平均模型ARIMA与广义神经网络GRNN的组合模型在水资源生态足迹中的拟合预测效果。结果显示:北京市长期处于水资源赤字这种不安全状态下,研究期内水资源足迹深度均大于1,平均水资源生态足迹为0.169hm~2/cap,约是平均水资源生态承载力的2倍,万元工业增加值用水量、万元GDP用水量、万元农业增加值用水量三个指标是影响北京市水资源生态足迹的重要因素。ARIMA(3,2,1)与GRNN耦合模型对北京市水资源生态足迹的拟合及预测效果优于单纯的ARIMA模型,其预测结果可为北京市水资源更有效地进行保护和配置提供参考。
To analyze and evaluate the sustainable development status of regional water resources,this paper used framework of water resources ecological footprint system as foundation.This study introduced the breadth and depth of water resources footprint to distinguish water resources flow capital and stock capital,combined the actual situation of Beijing to calculate the ecological carrying capacity of water resources,and discussed the fitting prediction effect of the improved combination model of ARIMA and GRNN in water resources ecological footprint.Results showed that under the unsafe state of Beijing′s long-term water deficit,the depth of water resources in the study period is greater than 1,and the average water ecological footprint was0.169 hm~2/cap,which is about twice the average ecological carrying capacity of water resources.The three indicators,i.e.,water consumption per ten thousand yuan of value-added by industry,ten thousand yuan,and ten thousand yuan GDP water added value of agricultural water use were important factors which influenced the ecological footprint of water resources of Beijing.The effect of ARIMA(3,2,and 1)and GRNN coupling model on the fitting and prediction of the ecological footprint of water resources in Beijing was better than that of ARIMA model alone.The prediction results can provide reference for the more effective protection and allocation of water resources in Beijing.
To analyze and evaluate the sustainable development status of regional water resources,this paper used framework of water resources ecological footprint system as foundation.This study introduced the breadth and depth of water resources footprint to distinguish water resources flow capital and stock capital,combined the actual situation of Beijing to calculate the ecological carrying capacity of water resources,and discussed the fitting prediction effect of the improved combination model of ARIMA and GRNN in water resources ecological footprint.Results showed that under the unsafe state of Beijing′s long-term water deficit,the depth of water resources in the study period is greater than 1,and the average water ecological footprint was0.169 hm~2/cap,which is about twice the average ecological carrying capacity of water resources.The three indicators,i.e.,water consumption per ten thousand yuan of value-added by industry,ten thousand yuan,and ten thousand yuan GDP water added value of agricultural water use were important factors which influenced the ecological footprint of water resources of Beijing.The effect of ARIMA(3,2,and 1)and GRNN coupling model on the fitting and prediction of the ecological footprint of water resources in Beijing was better than that of ARIMA model alone.The prediction results can provide reference for the more effective protection and allocation of water resources in Beijing.
引文
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[13]戴昌军，管光明，梁忠民，等．基于水资源足迹的武汉市水资源可持续利用研究[J]．人民长江，2011,42(9):8-11.(DAI C J,GUAN G M,LIANG Z M,et al.Sustainable utilization of water resources in Wuhan City based on water footprint theory[J].Yangtze River,2011,42(9):8-11.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4179.2011.09.003.
[14]胡良文，彭泰中，金志农．基于三维生态足迹模型自然资本时空演变———以江西省为例[J]．江西科学，2017,35(3):460-468.(HU L W,PENG T Z,JIN Z N.Temporal and spatial evolution of natural capitalbased on three dimensional ecological footprint model———Taking Jiangxi Province as an example[J].Jiangxi Science,2017,35(3):460-468.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13990/j.issn1001-3679.2017.03.028.
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[16]胡美娟，周年兴，李在军，等．南京市三维生态足迹测算及驱动因子[J]．地理与地理信息科学，2015,31(1):91-95.(HU M J,ZHOU N X,LI Z J,et al.Calculation and driving factor analysis of three-dimensional ecological footprint in Nanjing City[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2015,31(1):91-95.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-0504.2015.01.019.
[17]张勇，张治国，董晓辉，等．基于ARIMA模型的山西省水资源生态足迹时间序列分析[J]．安徽农业科学，2016,44(22):53-55,59.(ZHANG Y,ZHANG Z G,DONG X H,et al.Time series analysis of water resources ecological footprint in Shanxi Province based on ARIMA model[J].Journal of Anhui Agri,2016,44(22):53-55,59.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2016.22.019.(in Chinese))
[18]赵凌，张健，陈涛．基于ARIMA的乘积季节模型在城市供水量预测中的应用[J]．水资源与水工程学报，2011,22(1):58-62.(ZHAO L,ZHANG J,CHEN T.Application of product seasonal ARIMA model to the forecast of urban water supply[J].Journal of WaterResources&Water Engineering,2011,22(1):58-62.(in Chinese))
[19]李希国．烟台地区降水量的ARIMA随机模型研究[J]．水资源与水工程学报，2006,17(8):8-12.(LI X G.Study on ARIMA stochastic model for precipitation in Yantai Region[J].Journal of WaterResources&Water Engineering,2006,17(8):8-12.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-643X.2006.02.016.
[20]黄潇莹，张健．ARIMA模型在成都市供水量预测中的应用[J]．水资源与水工程学报，2010,21(4):111-113.(HUANG X Y,ZHANG J.Application of ARIMA model to water supply forecasting in Chengdu[J].Journal of WaterResources&Water Engineering,2010,21(4):111-113.(in Chinese))
[21]张杰，陆宝宏，李莉会，等．基于GRNN网络的苏州市水资源承载能力评价[J]．水资源保护，2013,29(2):43-47.(ZHANG J,LU B H,LI L H,et al.Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Suzhou City based on generalized regression neural network[J].Water Resources Protection,2013,29(2):43-47.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.10046933.2013.02.009.
[22]屈吉鸿，曹连海，陈南祥，等．黄河流域需水量预测的GRNN模型研究[J]．人民黄河，2008,30(11):56-57.(QU J H,CAO L H,CHEN N X,et al.Study on GRNN model for water demand prediction in the Yellow River basin[J].Yellow River,2008,30(11):56-57.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2008.11.026.
[23]崔东文，郭荣．基于GRNN模型的区域水资源可持续利用评价———以云南文山州为例[J]．人民长江，2012,43(5):26-31.(CUI D W,GUO R.Evaluation of sustainable utilization of regional water resources based on GRNN neural network model:case of Wenshan Prefecture of Yunnan Province[J].Yangtze River,2012,43(5):26-31.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4179.2012.05.006.
[24]杨振华，苏维词，赵卫权，等．基于GRNN模型的岩溶地区城市水生态足迹分析与预测[J]．中国岩溶，2016,35(1):36-42.(YANG Z H,SU W C,ZHAO W Q,et al.Analysis and forecast of water ecological footprint in karst area based on GRNN model[J].Carsologica Sinica,2016,35(1):36-42.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11932/karst20160106.
[25]李经纬，包腾飞．ARIMA—GRNN模型在大坝安全监测中的应用[J]．水电能源科学，2013,31(7):48-50.(LI J W,BAO T F.Application of ARIMA-GRNN model in dam safety monitoring[J].Water Resources and Power,2013,31(7):48-50.(in Chinese))
[26]黄林楠，张伟新，姜翠玲，等．水资源生态足迹计算方法[J]．生态学报，2007,28(3).(HUANG L N,ZHANG W X,JIANG C L,et al.Ecological footprint method in water resources assessment[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2007,28(3).(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0933.2008.03.044.
[2] REES W E.Ecological footprints and appropriated carrying capacity:what urban economics leaves out[J].Environment and Urbanization,1992,4(2):121-130.DOI:10.1177/095624789200400212.
[3]李培月，钱会，吴健华，等．银川市2008年水资源生态足迹研究与分析[J]．南水北调与水利科技，2010,8(1):69-71.(LI P Y,QIAN H,WU J H,et al.Study and analysis of water resources ecological footprint of2008in Yinchuan City[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2010,8(1):69-71.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-1683.2010.01.018.
[4]陆砚池，方世明．中国省域水资源生态足迹格局均衡性研究[J]．水土保持研究，2018,25(4):289-297.(LU Y C,FANG S M.Study on equilibrium of ecological footprint pattern of provincial water resources in China[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(4):289-297.(in Chinese))
[5]郭晓娜，苏维词，杨振华，等．城乡统筹背景下重庆市水生态足迹分析及预测[J]．灌溉排水学报，2017,36(2):69-75.(GUO X N,SU W C,YANG Z H,et al.Assessment and forecast on ecological footprint of water resources in Chongqing under coordinating urban and rural background[J].Journal of Irrigation And Drainage,2017,36(2):69-75.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.02.011.
[6]陶倩君，郭程轩．广东省水资源生态足迹的定量评价及其影响因素[J]．水资源保护，2018,34(2):28-33.(TAO Q J,GUO C X.Quantitative evaluation and influential factor of water resources ecological footprint in Guangdong Province[J]. Water Resources Protection,2018,34(2):28-33.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2018.02.06.
[7]谭秀娟，郑钦玉．我国水资源生态足迹分析与预测[J]．生态学报，2009,29(7):3559-3568.(TAN X J,ZHENG Q Y.Dynamic analysis and for ecast of water resources ecological footprint in China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2009,29(7):3559-3568.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3321/j.issn:1000-0933.2009.07.014.
[8]张义，邹永福，李丰生，等．基于灰色神经网络模型的水资源生态足迹预测———以广西为例[J]．人民长江，2017,48(1).(ZHANG Y,ZOU Y F,LI F S,et al.Prediction of water resources ecological footprint based on Grey Neural Network Model:A case of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region[J].Yangtze River,2017,48(1):37-42.(in Chinese))
[9] NICCOLUCCI V,BASTIANONI S,TIEZZI E B P,et al.How deep is the footprint?A 3Drepresentation[J].Ecological Modelling,2009,220(20):2819-2823.DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.07.018.
[10]范晓秋．水资源生态足迹研究与应用[D]．南京：河海大学，2005.(FAN X Q.Study on the principle of water resources ecological footprint and applical in Jiang 5uprovince[D].Hehai University,2005.(in Chinese))DOI:10.7666/d.y717007.
[11]张义．基于生态足迹模型的河池市水资源可持续利用评价[J]．南水北调与水利科技，2013,11(4).(ZHANG Y.Assessment of sustainable utilization of water resources in Hechi City based on ecological footprint model[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2013,11(4).(in Chinese))DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2013.04026.
[12]孙学颖，唐德善．广西水资源生态足迹时空分析[J]．南水北调与水利科技，2015,13(1):34-37.(SUN X Y,TANG D S. Analysis of spatio-temporal characteristics of water resources ecological footprint in Guangxi[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science&Technology,2015,13(1):34-37.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2015.01.008.
[13]戴昌军，管光明，梁忠民，等．基于水资源足迹的武汉市水资源可持续利用研究[J]．人民长江，2011,42(9):8-11.(DAI C J,GUAN G M,LIANG Z M,et al.Sustainable utilization of water resources in Wuhan City based on water footprint theory[J].Yangtze River,2011,42(9):8-11.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4179.2011.09.003.
[14]胡良文，彭泰中，金志农．基于三维生态足迹模型自然资本时空演变———以江西省为例[J]．江西科学，2017,35(3):460-468.(HU L W,PENG T Z,JIN Z N.Temporal and spatial evolution of natural capitalbased on three dimensional ecological footprint model———Taking Jiangxi Province as an example[J].Jiangxi Science,2017,35(3):460-468.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13990/j.issn1001-3679.2017.03.028.
[15]方恺，高凯，李焕承．基于三维生态足迹模型优化的自然资本利用国际比较[J]．地理研究，2013,32(9):1657-1667.(FANG K,GAO K,LI H C.International comparison of natural capital use:A three-dimensional model optimization of ecological footprint[J].Geographical Research,2013,32(9):1657-1667.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11821/dlyj201309008.
[16]胡美娟，周年兴，李在军，等．南京市三维生态足迹测算及驱动因子[J]．地理与地理信息科学，2015,31(1):91-95.(HU M J,ZHOU N X,LI Z J,et al.Calculation and driving factor analysis of three-dimensional ecological footprint in Nanjing City[J].Geography and Geo-Information Science,2015,31(1):91-95.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-0504.2015.01.019.
[17]张勇，张治国，董晓辉，等．基于ARIMA模型的山西省水资源生态足迹时间序列分析[J]．安徽农业科学，2016,44(22):53-55,59.(ZHANG Y,ZHANG Z G,DONG X H,et al.Time series analysis of water resources ecological footprint in Shanxi Province based on ARIMA model[J].Journal of Anhui Agri,2016,44(22):53-55,59.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2016.22.019.(in Chinese))
[18]赵凌，张健，陈涛．基于ARIMA的乘积季节模型在城市供水量预测中的应用[J]．水资源与水工程学报，2011,22(1):58-62.(ZHAO L,ZHANG J,CHEN T.Application of product seasonal ARIMA model to the forecast of urban water supply[J].Journal of WaterResources&Water Engineering,2011,22(1):58-62.(in Chinese))
[19]李希国．烟台地区降水量的ARIMA随机模型研究[J]．水资源与水工程学报，2006,17(8):8-12.(LI X G.Study on ARIMA stochastic model for precipitation in Yantai Region[J].Journal of WaterResources&Water Engineering,2006,17(8):8-12.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-643X.2006.02.016.
[20]黄潇莹，张健．ARIMA模型在成都市供水量预测中的应用[J]．水资源与水工程学报，2010,21(4):111-113.(HUANG X Y,ZHANG J.Application of ARIMA model to water supply forecasting in Chengdu[J].Journal of WaterResources&Water Engineering,2010,21(4):111-113.(in Chinese))
[21]张杰，陆宝宏，李莉会，等．基于GRNN网络的苏州市水资源承载能力评价[J]．水资源保护，2013,29(2):43-47.(ZHANG J,LU B H,LI L H,et al.Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Suzhou City based on generalized regression neural network[J].Water Resources Protection,2013,29(2):43-47.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.10046933.2013.02.009.
[22]屈吉鸿，曹连海，陈南祥，等．黄河流域需水量预测的GRNN模型研究[J]．人民黄河，2008,30(11):56-57.(QU J H,CAO L H,CHEN N X,et al.Study on GRNN model for water demand prediction in the Yellow River basin[J].Yellow River,2008,30(11):56-57.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2008.11.026.
[23]崔东文，郭荣．基于GRNN模型的区域水资源可持续利用评价———以云南文山州为例[J]．人民长江，2012,43(5):26-31.(CUI D W,GUO R.Evaluation of sustainable utilization of regional water resources based on GRNN neural network model:case of Wenshan Prefecture of Yunnan Province[J].Yangtze River,2012,43(5):26-31.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4179.2012.05.006.
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