怒江上游河谷川西云杉树轮宽度指示的气候水文变化
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摘要
使用树轮年代学的研究方法,对采自青藏高原怒江上游河谷川西云杉进行研究,建立了1761-2016年的树轮宽度年表。通过对树轮差值年表与1960-2016年间的气候数据进行相关普查,发现树轮差值年表与区域上一年8月到当年6月的月降水量相关性最强,相关系数达0. 655。利用该年表重建了研究区过去171年(1846-2016年)上一年8月到当年6月的月降水量变化,经相关检验,降水重建具有较好的可信性。经分析,重建序列中存在3个极端干旱年和4个极端湿润年;研究区经历了5次湿润期和5个干旱期,其中最长湿润期间为1890-1913年,最长干旱期间为1914-1948年;该降水重建序列存在1. 9～2. 0年、2. 3年、2. 5～2. 6年、2. 7～2. 8年的准周期变化;空间相关分析表明该重建序列能够表征研究区大范围的降水量变化;另外,流域水文变化和树木生长变化存在联系,说明怒江上游河谷川西云杉径向生长不仅仅包含了降水信号,而且同时包含了水文信号。
Based on the tree-ring research methods,the cores of Picea likiangensis were collected from the upper reaches of Nu River in Tibetan Plateau.We developed a tree-ring width chronology for the period CE 1761– 2016.Growth – climate response analyses showed that the tree-ring width of Picea likiangensis were mainly influenced by total August-June precipitation variation.We then developed a total August-June precipitation reconstruction for the period CE 1846 – 2016.The climate/tree-growth model accounted for 42.9% of the instrumental precipitation variance during the period 1960 – 2016.The leave-one-out cross-validation test showed that the reconstruction model was reliable.3 extreme dry years and 4 extreme wet years were found in the reconstruction sequence.Wet periods occurred during 1856-1871,1890-1913,1949-1956,1986-2008 and 2012-2016; while the periods of 1846-1855,1872-1889,1914-1948,1957-1985 and 2009-2011 were relatively dry.Spatial climate correlation analyses with gridded land surface data revealed that our precipitation reconstruction contains a strong regional precipitation signal for the upper reaches of the Nu River.The interannual cycles( 1.9 ~ 2.0 year,2.3 year,2.5 ~ 2.6 year,2.7 ~ 2.8 year) were found in the precipitation reconstruction.The relationship between streamflow and tree-ring width chronology indicated that the radial growth of Picea likiangensis in the upper reaches of the Nujiang river not only can represent precipitation variation,and but also can reveal hydrological signals.
Based on the tree-ring research methods,the cores of Picea likiangensis were collected from the upper reaches of Nu River in Tibetan Plateau.We developed a tree-ring width chronology for the period CE 1761– 2016.Growth – climate response analyses showed that the tree-ring width of Picea likiangensis were mainly influenced by total August-June precipitation variation.We then developed a total August-June precipitation reconstruction for the period CE 1846 – 2016.The climate/tree-growth model accounted for 42.9% of the instrumental precipitation variance during the period 1960 – 2016.The leave-one-out cross-validation test showed that the reconstruction model was reliable.3 extreme dry years and 4 extreme wet years were found in the reconstruction sequence.Wet periods occurred during 1856-1871,1890-1913,1949-1956,1986-2008 and 2012-2016; while the periods of 1846-1855,1872-1889,1914-1948,1957-1985 and 2009-2011 were relatively dry.Spatial climate correlation analyses with gridded land surface data revealed that our precipitation reconstruction contains a strong regional precipitation signal for the upper reaches of the Nu River.The interannual cycles( 1.9 ~ 2.0 year,2.3 year,2.5 ~ 2.6 year,2.7 ~ 2.8 year) were found in the precipitation reconstruction.The relationship between streamflow and tree-ring width chronology indicated that the radial growth of Picea likiangensis in the upper reaches of the Nujiang river not only can represent precipitation variation,and but also can reveal hydrological signals.
引文
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[2]罗贤,何大明,季漩,等.近50年怒江流域中上游枯季径流变化及其对气候变化的响应[J].地理科学,2016,36(1):107-113.
[3]Zhu H F,Shao X M,Yin Z Y,et al. Early summer temperature reconstruction in the eastern Tibetan plateau since ad,1440 using tree-ring width of Sabina tibetica[J]. Theoretical&Applied Climatology,2011,106(1-2):45-53.
[4]Zhang R B,Yuan Y J,Wei W S,et al. Dendroclimatic reconstruction of autumn–winter mean minimum temperature in the eastern Tibetan Plateau since 1600 AD[J]. Dendrochronologia,2015,33:1-7.
[5]Yang B,Kang X C,Bruning A,et al. A 622-year regional temperature history of southeast Tibet derived from tree rings[J]. Holocene,2010,20(2):181-190.
[6]Liu J,Yang B,Huang K,et al. Annual regional precipitation variations from a 700 year tree-ring record in south Tibet,western China[J]. Climate Research,2012,53(1):25-41.
[7]He M,Yang B,Bruning A,et al. Tree-ring-derived millennial precipitation record for the southern Tibetan Plateau and its possible driving mechanism[J]. Holocene,2013,23(1):36-45.
[8]Liu X,Xu G,Grie Binger J,et al. A shift in cloud cover over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau since 1600:evidence from regional tree-ringδ18O and its linkages to tropical oceans[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews,2014,88(55-68):55-68.
[9]Zhang Q B,Evans M N,Lyu L. Moisture dipole over the Tibetan Plateau during the past five and a half centuries[J]. Nature Communications,2015,6:8062.
[10]辜云杰,罗建勋,吴远伟,等.川西云杉天然种群表型多样性[J].植物生态学报,2009,33(2):291-301.
[11]Holmes R L. Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurement[J]. Tree-Ring Bull,1983,43(3):69-75.
[12]Cook E. A time series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization[D]. Tucson:The University of Arizona,1985.
[13]张德二,李小泉,梁有叶.《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》的再续补(1993~2000年)[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(3):379-384.
[14]程雪寒,吕利新.藏东南树木年轮记载的公元1560年以来的极端干旱事件[J].第四纪研究,2015,35(5):1093-1101.
[15]林振耀,吴祥定.历史时期(1765—1980年)西藏水旱雪灾规律的探讨[J].气象学报,1986,44(3):3-10.
[16]陈峰,魏文寿,袁玉江,等.基于多点树轮序列的1768-2006年甘肃降水量变化[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(5):1520-1526.