1912—2016年内蒙古地区霜冻灾害研究
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摘要
霜冻灾害对内蒙古地区的农牧业影响巨大。运用数理统计法、小波分析法对1912—2016年内蒙古地区霜冻灾害的等级、时空变化特征和周期规律进行了研究,采用相关分析法对霜冻灾害与人口、ENSO事件的相关性进行了分析。结果表明:1912—2016年内蒙古地区共发生霜冻灾害163次,轻度灾害占29.4%,中度灾害占36.2%,重度灾害占34.4%。可分为3个阶段,1912—1946年为第一阶段,1947—1986年为第二阶段,1987—2016年为第三阶段,其中一、三阶段以轻度和中度霜冻灾害为主,第二阶段以重度霜冻灾害为主。小波分析表明,霜冻灾害在低等级层次中存在3～4 a或者7～8 a的周期,在中等级层次中存在13～14 a的周期,在高等级层次中存在26～27 a的周期。内蒙古东北部、东南部和中部地区发生霜冻灾害的频次较高,灾害发生的频次与所在地区的人口呈显著正相关,与ENSO冷事件关系显著,而与ENSO暖事件关系不显著。
The frost disaster has a great impact on farming and animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia. Mathematical statistics and wavelet analysis were used to analyze the level, spatial and temporal variation characteristics and periodicity of frost disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1912 to 2016. Correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between frost disasters and population and ENSO events. The results showed that there were 163 frost disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1912 to 2016, of which mild disasters accounted for 29.4%; moderate disasters accounted for 36.2%; and severe disasters accounted for 34.4%.The disasters can be divided into three stages according to the frequency of occurrence. 1912—1946 is the first stage, 1947—1986 is the second stage, and 1987—2016 is the third stage. Stages 1 and 3 are dominated by mild and moderate frost disasters,stage 2 is dominated by severe frost disasters. Wavelet analysis shows that frost disasters have a period of 3 to 4 a or 7 to 8 a in the low-level hierarchy, 13 to 14 a in the middle level, and 26 to 27 a in the high level. The frequency of frost disasters is mostly distributed in the northeast, southeast and central regions of Inner Mongolia. The frequency of disasters is significantly positively correlated with the population of the area where they are located, and has a significant relationship with the cold ENSO event, but not significantly related to the warm ENSO event.
The frost disaster has a great impact on farming and animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia. Mathematical statistics and wavelet analysis were used to analyze the level, spatial and temporal variation characteristics and periodicity of frost disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1912 to 2016. Correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between frost disasters and population and ENSO events. The results showed that there were 163 frost disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1912 to 2016, of which mild disasters accounted for 29.4%; moderate disasters accounted for 36.2%; and severe disasters accounted for 34.4%.The disasters can be divided into three stages according to the frequency of occurrence. 1912—1946 is the first stage, 1947—1986 is the second stage, and 1987—2016 is the third stage. Stages 1 and 3 are dominated by mild and moderate frost disasters,stage 2 is dominated by severe frost disasters. Wavelet analysis shows that frost disasters have a period of 3 to 4 a or 7 to 8 a in the low-level hierarchy, 13 to 14 a in the middle level, and 26 to 27 a in the high level. The frequency of frost disasters is mostly distributed in the northeast, southeast and central regions of Inner Mongolia. The frequency of disasters is significantly positively correlated with the population of the area where they are located, and has a significant relationship with the cold ENSO event, but not significantly related to the warm ENSO event.
引文
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[3] 张宪功,徐雪强,古帅,等.1644—1949年陕北地区旱灾研究[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(3):176-180.
[4] 孙关龙.中国历史大疫的时空分布及其规律研究[J].地域研究与开发,2004,23(6):123-128.
[5] 陈乾金,张永山.华北异常初终霜冻气候特征的研究[J].自然灾害学报,1995,4(3):33-39.
[6] 周见,郝成元,吴文祥.基于GIS的黑龙江省水稻低温灾害风险等级区划[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(1):109-112.
[7] 孟万忠,赵景波,刘晓峰.明代山西霜雪低温灾害特征与周期规律分析[J].地域研究与开发,2012,31(6):123-126.
[8] 孟万忠,赵景波,王尚义.山西清代霜雪灾害的特点与周期规律研究[J].自然灾害学报,2012,21(4):40-47.
[9] 孟万忠,刘晓峰,王尚义,等.近百年山西霜雪灾害的特征与周期规律研究[J].地理研究,2012,31(12):2292-2300.
[10] 孟万忠,赵景波.近六百年来山西气象灾害与气候变化[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2014.
[11] 叶殿秀,张勇.1961—2007年我国霜冻变化特征[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(6):661-665.
[12] HEINO R,BRAZDIL R,FORLAND R,et al.Progress in the Study of Climate Extremes in Northern and Central Europe[J].Climatic Change,1999,42:151-181.
[13] KATRINA R,MANDY B.Towards Topoclimate Maps of Frost and Fiost Risk for Southland,New Zealand[C]//Dunedin.New Zealand:The 15th Annual Colloquium of the Spatial Information Research Centre,University of Otago,2003:1-10.
[14] 中国气象灾害大典编委会.中国气象灾害大典(内蒙古卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2018.
[15] 中国气象局.中国气象灾害年鉴[Z].北京:气象出版社,2005—2016年.
[16] 内蒙古自治区气象局.内蒙古自治区志(气象志)[M].北京:气象出版社,2005.
[17] 中国气象局.中华人民共和国气象行业标准作物霜冻害等级[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.
[18] 王世新,周艺,胡桥,等.中国旱涝灾害时空演变规律[M].北京:科学出版社,2018:42-43,59.
[19] 封建湖,车刚明,聂玉峰.数值分析原理[M].北京:科学出版社,2017:81-87.
[20] 晏红明,周文,杨辉,等.东亚冬季风指数的定义及其年际年代际异常[J].大气科学学报,2009,32(3):367-376.
[21] 王静爱,左伟.中国地理图集[M].北京:中国地图出版社,2010:280.
[22] 中国气象局国家气候中心.ENSO事件历史事件表[EB/OL].(2016-12-31)[2018-11-04].https://cmdp.ncc-cma.net/cn/index.htm.