“一带一路”重点省份水资源-经济-生态环境耦合协调分析
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摘要
依据耦合协调度模型,探究"一带一路"倡议下18个重点省(市、区)水资源、经济、生态环境3系统协调共生关系,构建适用于时空尺度下重点地区3系统的指标评价体系,利用主客观综合赋权计算各级指标权重,并计算耦合度(coupling degree)与耦合协调度(degree of coupling coordination).按其结果对2006-2015年各研究区的3系统协调发展程度进行定量分析与评价,对地区协调发展给予评级.结果反映出研究范围内全系统的整体协调发展态势,表现为耦合协调度波动上升、3系统共同向好发展以及时空上的差异性.并对2类协调问题,提出"一带一路"倡议下3系统协调发展对策,应在战略推进过程中强化水资源保护意识,提高用水效率,调整经济发展模式,强调生态资源优势,加大水利扶贫力度.
According to the coupling coordination degree model, the three-system coordinated symbiotic relationship of water resources, economy and ecological environment in 18 key provinces(cities, districts) under"the Belt and Road"initiative is explored. The index evaluation system for the three-system in key areas under the spatiotemporal scale is constructed,the weights of the indicators are calculated by subjective and objective comprehensive weighting, and the coupling degree and the degree of coupling coordination are calculated.According to the results, the quantitative analysis and evaluation of the coordinated development of the threesystem of water resources, economy and ecological environment in every study area from 2006 to 2015 are carried out; and the regional coordinated development is rated. The results reflect the overall coordinated development of the whole system within the study,which shows that the coupling coordination degree rises with fluctuations, the three system works together for a better development and the differences in time and space. And for the two types of coordination problems, this paper puts forward the three-system coordinated development strategy under"the Belt and Road"initiative, the awareness of water resources protection should be strengthed, water use efficiency should be improved, the economic development model should be adjusted,the advantages of ecological resources should be emphasized and water and poverty alleviation should be increased in the process of strategic advancement.
According to the coupling coordination degree model, the three-system coordinated symbiotic relationship of water resources, economy and ecological environment in 18 key provinces(cities, districts) under"the Belt and Road"initiative is explored. The index evaluation system for the three-system in key areas under the spatiotemporal scale is constructed,the weights of the indicators are calculated by subjective and objective comprehensive weighting, and the coupling degree and the degree of coupling coordination are calculated.According to the results, the quantitative analysis and evaluation of the coordinated development of the threesystem of water resources, economy and ecological environment in every study area from 2006 to 2015 are carried out; and the regional coordinated development is rated. The results reflect the overall coordinated development of the whole system within the study,which shows that the coupling coordination degree rises with fluctuations, the three system works together for a better development and the differences in time and space. And for the two types of coordination problems, this paper puts forward the three-system coordinated development strategy under"the Belt and Road"initiative, the awareness of water resources protection should be strengthed, water use efficiency should be improved, the economic development model should be adjusted,the advantages of ecological resources should be emphasized and water and poverty alleviation should be increased in the process of strategic advancement.
引文
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[16]梁红梅,刘卫东,林育欣,等.土地利用效益的耦合模型及其应用[J].浙江大学学报(农业与生命科学版),2008,34(2):230-236.Liang Hongmei, Liu Weidong, Lin Yuxin, et al. Coupling model of land use benefits and its application[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Agriculture and Life Sciences),2008,34(2):230-236.
[17]张文忠,王传胜,吕昕,等.珠江三角洲土地利用变化与工业化和城市化的耦合关系[J].地理学报,2003,58(5):677-685.Zhang Wenzhong, Wang Chuansheng, LüXin, et al.Coupling relationship between land use change and i-ndustrialization&urbanization in the Pearl River Delta[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2003,58(5):677-685.
[2]沈彦俊.黄河流域生态环境保护与水资源可持续利用[J].民主与科学,2018,(6):16-19.Shen Yanjun.Ecological environment protection and sustainable utilization of water resources in the Yellow River basin[J].Democracy&Science,2018,(6):16-19.
[3]左其亭,韩春辉,马军霞,等.“一带一路”中国大陆区水资源特征及支撑能力研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(6):631-639.Zuo Qiting, Han Chunhui, Ma Junxia, et al. Water resources characteristics and supporting capacity for“the Belt and Road”in China mainland[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2017,48(6):631-639.
[4]张兆方,沈菊琴,何伟军,等.“一带一路”中国区域水资源利用效率评价——基于超效率DEA-MalmquistTobit方法[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,20(4):60-66.Zhang Zhaofang,Shen Juqin,He Weijun,et al.An analysis of water utilization efficiency of the Belt and Road initiative's provinces and municipalities in China based on DEA-Malmquist-Tobit model[J]. Journal of Hohai University(Philosophy and Social Sciences), 2018, 20(4):60-66.
[5]邓铭江.中国西北“水三线”空间格局与水资源配置方略[J].地理学报,2018,73(7):1189-1203.Deng Mingjiang."Three Water Lines"strategy:its spatial patterns and effects on water resources allocation in northwest China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(7):1189-1203.
[6]廖重斌.环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系——以珠江三角洲城市群为例[J].广州环境科学,1996,(1):171-177.Liao Zhongbin. Quantitative assessment of coordinated growth between environment and economy and its classification system—taking cities group in Pearl River Delta as example[J]. Guangzhou Environmental Science,1996,(1):171-177.
[7]伏吉芮,瓦哈甫·哈力克,姚一平.吐鲁番地区水资源-经济-生态耦合协调发展分析[J].节水灌溉,2016,(12):94-98.Fu Jirui, Wahap Halik, Yao Yiping. Analysis of coupling coordinated development of water resources-economic-ecological system in Turpan area[J]. Water Saving Irrigation,2016,(12):94-98.
[8]华春莉,王应武.云南省水资源潜力与社会经济发展耦合协调关系分析[J].人民珠江,2018,39(6):93-97.Hua Chunli,Wang Yingwu.Evaluation and coupling coordination analysis on water resources potentials and economic and social development in Yunnan province[J].Pearl River,2018,39(6):93-97.
[9]闻豪,倪福全,邓玉,等.四川省区域经济发展与水安全时空格局的耦合研究[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(4):33-42.Wen Hao, Ni Fuquan, Deng Yu, et al. Investigation on the spatial-temporal coupling of regional economic development and water security in Sichuan province[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition), 2017, 38(4):33-42.
[10]喻笑勇,张利平,陈心池,等.湖北省水资源与社会经济耦合协调发展分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(4):809-817.Yu Xiaoyong,Zhang Liping,Chen Xinchi,et al.Analysis of coupling and coordinated development between water resources and social economy in Hubei province[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2018,27(4):809-817.
[11]国家发展改革委，外交部，商务部.推动共建丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路的愿景与行动[N].人民日报,2015-03-29(004).
[12]国务院发展研究中心.地区协调发展的战略和政策[R].2016.
[13] Veolia. Performance contrast for the water sector in Oman[R].Muscat:Veolia,2014.
[14] El-Gafy I K. The water poverty index as an assistant tool for drawing strategies of the Egyptian water sector[J]. Ain Shams Engineering Journal, 2015:S2090447915001628.
[15]刘耀彬,宋学锋.区域城市化与生态环境耦合性分析——以江苏省为例[J].中国矿业大学学报,2006,35(2):182-187.Liu Yaobin, Song Xuefeng.Study of coupling characteristics between regional urbanization and eco-environment—taking Jiangsu province as a case[J]. Journal of China University of Mining&Technology, 2006, 35(2):182-187.
[16]梁红梅,刘卫东,林育欣,等.土地利用效益的耦合模型及其应用[J].浙江大学学报(农业与生命科学版),2008,34(2):230-236.Liang Hongmei, Liu Weidong, Lin Yuxin, et al. Coupling model of land use benefits and its application[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Agriculture and Life Sciences),2008,34(2):230-236.
[17]张文忠,王传胜,吕昕,等.珠江三角洲土地利用变化与工业化和城市化的耦合关系[J].地理学报,2003,58(5):677-685.Zhang Wenzhong, Wang Chuansheng, LüXin, et al.Coupling relationship between land use change and i-ndustrialization&urbanization in the Pearl River Delta[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2003,58(5):677-685.