哈尔滨市土地利用动态变化模拟研究
|
摘要
以哈尔滨市为研究区,定量分析了土地利用时空变化情况,结果表明1995～2015年间哈尔滨市耕地向城乡建设用地、林地转移;城乡建设用地的增加主要来自耕地、未利用地、林地、草地.运用ANN-CA模型、Logistic-CA模型和DT-CA模型,对1995～2005、2005～2015年城市土地利用变化趋势分别进行分析和模拟.结果表明:ANN-CA模型在模拟多种土地利用类型之间的转换更具优势;Logistic-CA和DT-CA更适用于非城市用地到城市用地单一土地利用类型之间的转换.选用模拟精度最高的ANN-CA模型对哈尔滨市和2015～2025年和2025～2035年的土地利用进行预测.结果表明:2015～2025年城乡建设用地的面积增加,耕地、林地、水域、未利用地的面积减少,2025～2035年城乡工矿居民用地的面积虽然仍在增加,但增长速率较2015～2025年减慢.
Take Harbin as research area, the spatiotemporal changes of land use from 1995 to 2015 is qualitatively analyzed, cultivated land in Harbin is transferred to urban and rural construction land and forest land.The increase of urban and rural construction land mainly comes from cultivated land, unused land, woodland and grassland.ANN-CA model, Logistic-CA model and DT-CA model are used to analyze and simulate the change trend of urban land use from 1995 to 2005 and from 2005 to 2015 respectively.The results show that ANN-CA model has more advantages in simulating the conversion between different land use types.Logistic-CA and DT-CA are more suitable for conversion from non-urban land to single land use type.ANN-CA model with the highest simulation accuracy is selected to predict the land use of Harbin city and from 2015 to 2025 and from 2025 to 2035.The results show that the area of land used for construction in urban and rural areas increased from 2015 to 2025, while the area of arable land, forest land, water area and unused land decreased. Although the area of land used for industrial and mining residents in urban and rural areas still increases from 2025 to 2035, the growth rate is slower than that in 2015 to 2025.
Take Harbin as research area, the spatiotemporal changes of land use from 1995 to 2015 is qualitatively analyzed, cultivated land in Harbin is transferred to urban and rural construction land and forest land.The increase of urban and rural construction land mainly comes from cultivated land, unused land, woodland and grassland.ANN-CA model, Logistic-CA model and DT-CA model are used to analyze and simulate the change trend of urban land use from 1995 to 2005 and from 2005 to 2015 respectively.The results show that ANN-CA model has more advantages in simulating the conversion between different land use types.Logistic-CA and DT-CA are more suitable for conversion from non-urban land to single land use type.ANN-CA model with the highest simulation accuracy is selected to predict the land use of Harbin city and from 2015 to 2025 and from 2025 to 2035.The results show that the area of land used for construction in urban and rural areas increased from 2015 to 2025, while the area of arable land, forest land, water area and unused land decreased. Although the area of land used for industrial and mining residents in urban and rural areas still increases from 2025 to 2035, the growth rate is slower than that in 2015 to 2025.
引文
[1] 荣月静,张慧,王岩松.基于Logistic-CA-Markov与InVEST模型对南京市土地利用与生物多样性功能模拟评价[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(3):82-89.
[2] 管超,哈斯.基于GeoSOS的城市扩展模拟——以旅顺口区为例[J].测绘与空间地理信息,2014,37(3):49-54.
[3] 吴大放,刘艳艳,王朝晖.基于Logistic-CA的珠海市耕地变化机理分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(1):140-147.
[4] 冯徽徽,刘慧平.基于误差反馈控制的变系数城市扩张模型构建及应用[J].地理科学,2014,34(5):594-600.
[5] 邢容容,马安青,张小伟,等.基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的青岛市土地利用变化动态模拟[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(6):111-114+2.
[6] 马晶,徐月,冯云飞,等.GeoSOS在城市扩展中的应用[J].测绘通报,2018(7):116-120.
[7] 刘纪远,匡文慧,张增祥,等.20世纪 80年代末以来中国土地利用变化的基本特征与空间格局[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):3-13
[8] 徐新良,刘纪远,等.中国 5年间隔陆地生态系统空间分布数据集(1990-2010)[J].全球变化数据学报,2017,1(1):52-59.
[9] 徐新良,等. 土地利用/覆被变化时空信息分析方法及应用[M]. 北京:科学技术文献出版社,2014:90-108.
[10] 杜金龙,朱记伟,解建仓,等.近25 年关中地区土地利用及其景观格局变化[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(01):217-226.
[11] 黎夏,李丹,刘小平.地理模拟优化系统(GeoSOS)及其在地理国情分析中的应用[J].测绘学报,2017,46(10):1598-1608.
[12] 杨文龙. 基于GeoSOS的村镇建设用地扩张分析及规划模拟优化[D].华南农业大学,2016.
[13] 史焱文. 传统农区工业化进程中乡村聚落空间演变研究[D].河南大学,2016.
[14] 黎夏,李丹,刘小平,等.地理模拟优化系统GeoSOS软件构建与应用[J].中山大学学报:自然科学版,2010,49(04):1-5,+15.
[15] 史焱文. 传统农区工业化进程中乡村聚落空间演变研究[D].河南大学,2016.
[16] Xin Yang,Yu Zhao,Rui Chen,et al. Simulating land use change by integrating landscape metrics into ANN-CA in a new way[J]. Frontiers of Earth Science,2016,10(2).
[17] Li X, Yeh A G O. Neural-network-based cellular automata for simulating multiple land use changes using GIS[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 2002,16(4): 323-343.
[18] Li X, Chen Y M, Liu X P, et al. Concepts, methodologies, and tools of an integrated Geographical Simulation and Optimization System (GeoSOS)[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2011, 25(4):633–655.
[19] Li X, Shi X, He, J Q, et al. Coupling simulation and optimization to solve planning problems in a fast developing area[J]. Annals of the Association of American Geographers,2011, 101(5):1032-1048.
[2] 管超,哈斯.基于GeoSOS的城市扩展模拟——以旅顺口区为例[J].测绘与空间地理信息,2014,37(3):49-54.
[3] 吴大放,刘艳艳,王朝晖.基于Logistic-CA的珠海市耕地变化机理分析[J].经济地理,2014,34(1):140-147.
[4] 冯徽徽,刘慧平.基于误差反馈控制的变系数城市扩张模型构建及应用[J].地理科学,2014,34(5):594-600.
[5] 邢容容,马安青,张小伟,等.基于Logistic-CA-Markov模型的青岛市土地利用变化动态模拟[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(6):111-114+2.
[6] 马晶,徐月,冯云飞,等.GeoSOS在城市扩展中的应用[J].测绘通报,2018(7):116-120.
[7] 刘纪远,匡文慧,张增祥,等.20世纪 80年代末以来中国土地利用变化的基本特征与空间格局[J].地理学报,2014,69(1):3-13
[8] 徐新良,刘纪远,等.中国 5年间隔陆地生态系统空间分布数据集(1990-2010)[J].全球变化数据学报,2017,1(1):52-59.
[9] 徐新良,等. 土地利用/覆被变化时空信息分析方法及应用[M]. 北京:科学技术文献出版社,2014:90-108.
[10] 杜金龙,朱记伟,解建仓,等.近25 年关中地区土地利用及其景观格局变化[J].干旱区研究,2018,35(01):217-226.
[11] 黎夏,李丹,刘小平.地理模拟优化系统(GeoSOS)及其在地理国情分析中的应用[J].测绘学报,2017,46(10):1598-1608.
[12] 杨文龙. 基于GeoSOS的村镇建设用地扩张分析及规划模拟优化[D].华南农业大学,2016.
[13] 史焱文. 传统农区工业化进程中乡村聚落空间演变研究[D].河南大学,2016.
[14] 黎夏,李丹,刘小平,等.地理模拟优化系统GeoSOS软件构建与应用[J].中山大学学报:自然科学版,2010,49(04):1-5,+15.
[15] 史焱文. 传统农区工业化进程中乡村聚落空间演变研究[D].河南大学,2016.
[16] Xin Yang,Yu Zhao,Rui Chen,et al. Simulating land use change by integrating landscape metrics into ANN-CA in a new way[J]. Frontiers of Earth Science,2016,10(2).
[17] Li X, Yeh A G O. Neural-network-based cellular automata for simulating multiple land use changes using GIS[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 2002,16(4): 323-343.
[18] Li X, Chen Y M, Liu X P, et al. Concepts, methodologies, and tools of an integrated Geographical Simulation and Optimization System (GeoSOS)[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2011, 25(4):633–655.
[19] Li X, Shi X, He, J Q, et al. Coupling simulation and optimization to solve planning problems in a fast developing area[J]. Annals of the Association of American Geographers,2011, 101(5):1032-1048.