辽宁省地表温度时空变化及影响因素
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摘要
地温是评价气候变化的重要指标,对土壤的成分、结构以及形成和演化都具有很大影响。分析地温自身的时空变化规律以及与气候间的相互关系,对深入了解地气间相互作用的机理、明确气候变化的响应规律、预测未来地温的发展趋势等方面具有重要的科学意义。辽宁省位于内蒙古高原向渤海湾的过渡地带,地形地势复杂,此外辽宁省又处在季节性冻土区,地温的变化机制更具复杂性。利用辽宁省24个气象站点1960—2016年0cm地温(地表温度)数据和各气象要素(气温、日照时数、风速、降水量)数据资料,采用气候倾向率法、Mann-Kendall突变分析、小波周期分析等方法,系统的分析辽宁省地表温度的时空变化特征以及与气候要素间的关系。结果表明:辽宁省地表温度年际变化随时间向暖趋势发展,气候倾向率达0.36℃/10a,不同年代际存在不同的变化趋势,其中20世纪60—80年代低于多年平均地表温度,90年代至21世纪10年代高于多年平均地表温度,此外冬季地表温度增温幅度最大;突变分析显示在1995年发生突变,经检验其升高趋势显著;经周期分析显示辽宁省年地表温度具有30—46a和19—25a的两种时间尺度的周期变化;年地表温度呈西南向东北逐渐降低分布特征。相关分析表明,地表温度与气温的相关性最大,并且其大小在整个区域内呈西高东低的分布特点;在与降水的关系中,降水量高的年份地表温度均比较低,夏季受降水和日照时数的影响最显著,地表温度与风速均呈负相关,但夏季相关性较小,考虑夏季地表温度主要是受气温、日照和降水共同的作用,弱化了风速对地表温度的影响。
Ground temperature is an important indicator for evaluating climate change and has a great impact on soil composition, structure, formation and evolution. It is of great scientific significance to analyze the temporal and spatial variation in geothermal temperature and its relationship with climate, to understand the mechanism of interaction between Geo Atmosphere and atmosphere, to clarify the response to climate change, and to predict the development trend of future geothermal temperature. Liaoning Province is located in the transition zone from the Inner Mongolia Plateau to Bohai Bay. The topography in this region is complicated. In addition, Liaoning Province is located in a seasonal permafrost, and the mechanism of ground temperature change is more complicated. This paper adopted 0 cm ground temperature(surface temperature) data and various meteorological(temperature, sunshine hours, wind speed, precipitation) data from 24 meteorological stations in Liaoning Province from 1960 to 2016. The climate inclination rate, Mann-Kendall mutation analysis, and wavelet period analysis are used to systematically analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of surface temperature in Liaoning Province and their relationship with climate elements. The results indicated that interannual variation in surface temperature of Liaoning Province get a warming trend from time to time, and the climate tendency rate reaches 0.36 ℃/10 a. There are different trends in different ages, the average surface temperature in the 1960 s—1980 s, and from the 1990 s to the 2010 s was higher than the average surface temperature for many years, and in addition, the surface temperature in winter was the highest. Mutational analysis showed a mutation in 1995, which showed a significant increase in the trend. The periodic analysis shows that the annual surface temperature of Liaoning Province showed periodic changes over two time scales 30—46 a and 19—25 a. The annual surface temperature gradually decreases from the southwest to northeast. Correlation analysis shows that the correlation between surface temperature and temperature was the highest; the magnitude of the correlation showed a character that the western region is higher than eastern region. and was characterized by the distribution of high west and low east throughout the region. In terms of the relationship with precipitation, the surface temperature in the years with high precipitation was relatively low, and that in the summer was most affected by precipitation and sunshine hours. The surface temperature and wind speed are negatively correlated, but the correlation in summer was smaller than that in the winter, the impact of wind speed on surface temperature is weakened by all the effects of temperature, sunshine, and precipitation.
Ground temperature is an important indicator for evaluating climate change and has a great impact on soil composition, structure, formation and evolution. It is of great scientific significance to analyze the temporal and spatial variation in geothermal temperature and its relationship with climate, to understand the mechanism of interaction between Geo Atmosphere and atmosphere, to clarify the response to climate change, and to predict the development trend of future geothermal temperature. Liaoning Province is located in the transition zone from the Inner Mongolia Plateau to Bohai Bay. The topography in this region is complicated. In addition, Liaoning Province is located in a seasonal permafrost, and the mechanism of ground temperature change is more complicated. This paper adopted 0 cm ground temperature(surface temperature) data and various meteorological(temperature, sunshine hours, wind speed, precipitation) data from 24 meteorological stations in Liaoning Province from 1960 to 2016. The climate inclination rate, Mann-Kendall mutation analysis, and wavelet period analysis are used to systematically analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of surface temperature in Liaoning Province and their relationship with climate elements. The results indicated that interannual variation in surface temperature of Liaoning Province get a warming trend from time to time, and the climate tendency rate reaches 0.36 ℃/10 a. There are different trends in different ages, the average surface temperature in the 1960 s—1980 s, and from the 1990 s to the 2010 s was higher than the average surface temperature for many years, and in addition, the surface temperature in winter was the highest. Mutational analysis showed a mutation in 1995, which showed a significant increase in the trend. The periodic analysis shows that the annual surface temperature of Liaoning Province showed periodic changes over two time scales 30—46 a and 19—25 a. The annual surface temperature gradually decreases from the southwest to northeast. Correlation analysis shows that the correlation between surface temperature and temperature was the highest; the magnitude of the correlation showed a character that the western region is higher than eastern region. and was characterized by the distribution of high west and low east throughout the region. In terms of the relationship with precipitation, the surface temperature in the years with high precipitation was relatively low, and that in the summer was most affected by precipitation and sunshine hours. The surface temperature and wind speed are negatively correlated, but the correlation in summer was smaller than that in the winter, the impact of wind speed on surface temperature is weakened by all the effects of temperature, sunshine, and precipitation.
引文
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[2] IPCC.Summary for Policy Makers of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.Cambridge:Cambridge Uni-versity Press,2013.
[3] Zhang H Q,Gao X J,Li Y H.Climate impacts of land-use change in China and its uncertainty in a global model simulation.Climate Dynamics,2009,32(4):473-494.
[4] 陆晓波,徐海明,孙丞虎,何金海.中国近50a地温的变化特征.南京气象学院学报,2006,29(5):706-712.
[5] 阿布都克日木·阿巴司.喀什市1961-2007年浅层地温的变化.沙漠与绿洲气象,2008,2(4):22-24.
[6] 王风,宋春雨,韩晓增.东北黑土区土壤温度变化特征.黑龙江农业科学,2006,(6):31-33.
[7] 范泽孟,岳天祥,陈传法,孙晓芳.中国气温与降水的时空变化趋势分析.地球信息科学学报,2011,13(4):526-533.
[8] 肖辉林.土壤温度上升与森林衰退.热带亚热带土壤科学,1995,4(4):246-249.
[9] 周志田,成升魁,刘允芬,李家永.中国亚热带红壤丘陵区不同土地利用方式下土壤CO2排放规律初探.资源科学,2002,24(2):83-87.
[10] 王佳琳,潘志华,韩国琳,程路,董智强,张婧婷,潘宇鹰,黄蕾,赵慧.1961-2010年中国0cm地温变化特征及其与气温变化的关系.资源科学,2016,38(9):1733-1741.
[11] 任国玉,徐铭志,初子莹,郭军,李庆祥,刘小宁,王颖.近54年中国地面气温变化.气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):717-727.
[12] 杨明,李维亮,刘煜,徐海明.近50年我国西部地区气象要素的变化特征.应用气象学报,2010,21(2):198-205.
[13] 姜晓,魏东平.联合气象地温资料分析北京地区的气候变化.科技导报,2010,28(7):22-27.
[14] 杜军,李春,廖健,拉巴,路红亚.近45年拉萨浅层地温对气候变化的响应.气象,2007,33(10):61-67.
[15] 周刊社,罗骕翾,杜军,建军,石磊.西藏高原地温对气温变化的响应.中国农业气象,2015,36(2):129-138.
[16] 张焕平,张占峰,汪青春,金惠瑛.近40年青海浅层地温的变化特征.中国农业气象,2013,34(2):146-152.
[17] Retnakumar K,Renuka G,Rao G.Relation between pre-monsoon soil temperature and monsoon rainfall in a tropical station.Mausam,2000,51(4):365-366.
[18] 汤懋苍,赖特E R.美国地温分布与后一季降水的相关分析.高原气象,1986,5(4):293-307.
[19] 黄显蜀.浅层地温变化与短期暴雨天气.高原气象,1985,4(2):190-192.
[20] 董雪,田静,吴骅,刘素华.考虑土壤水分影响的比辐射率方法在地表温度反演中的应用.资源科学,2017,39(8):1592-1604.
[21] 李放,沈彦俊.地表遥感蒸散发模型研究进展.资源科学,2014,36(7):1478-1488.
[22] 陈鹏狮,张玉书,冯锐,于文颖,武晋雯,纪瑞鹏.50年来辽宁省地温变化规律及播种期地温预报研究.干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(6):163-168.
[23] 周斌,陈鹏狮,李晶,林俊杰,王婷,张晓影.辽宁省春季表层地温变化特征及其与气温的关系.中国农学通报,2014,30(36):275-280.
[24] 隋景跃,张国林,戴海燕,吴晓华.近52a辽宁西部地区浅层地温变化特征分析.山西农业科学,2013,41(8):852-855.
[25] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版).北京:气象出版社,2007:1-296.
[26] 张璐,周跃.Mann-Kendall检验及其在河流悬沙浓度时间序列分析中的运用.亚热带水土保持,2007,19(4):13-16.
[27] Zhang Q,Xu C Y,Chen Y D.Wavelet-based characterization of water level behaviors in the Pearl River estuary,China.Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2010,24(1):81-92.
[28] Liu D L,Liu X Z,Li B C,Zhao S W,Li X G.Multiple time scale analysis of river runoff using wavelet transform for Dagujia River Basin,Yantai,China.Chinese Geographical Science,2009,19(2):158-167.
[29] Liu D,Fu Q,Ma Y S,Sun A H.Annual precipitation series wavelet analysis of well-irrigation area in Sanjiang Pla//Proceedings of the Second IFIP International Conference on Computer and Computing Technologies in Agriculture.Boston,MA:Springer,2008:563-572.
[30] 王文圣,丁晶,向红莲.水文时间序列多时间尺度分析的小波变换法.四川大学学报:工程科学版,2002,34(6):14-17.
[31] 邓自旺,林振山,周晓兰.西安市近50年来气候变化多时间尺度分析.高原气象,1997,16(1):81-93.
[32] 郑治真,沈萍,杨选辉,万玉莉.小波变换及其MATLAB工具的应用.北京:地震出版社,2001:1-166.
[33] 李述训,南卓铜,赵林.冻融作用对系统与环境间能量交换的影响.冰川冻土,2002,24(2):109-115.
[34] 施能,陈家其,屠其璞.中国近100年来4个年代际的气候变化特征.气象学报,1995,53(4):431-439.
[35] Wan G N,Yang M X,Wang X J.Variations in soil temperature at BJ site on the central Tibetan Plateau.Journal of Mountain Science,2012,9(2):274-285.
[36] Bartlett M G,Chapman D S,Harris R N.A decade of ground-air temperature tracking at Emigrant Pass Observatory,Utah.Journal of Climate,2006,19(15):3722-3731.
[37] 刘万俊.影响地温日极值的要素分析.四川气象,2002,22(4):61-62.
[38] 宫恒瑞.1981-2010年乌昌地区20 cm蒸发皿蒸发量变化原因分析.干旱区研究,2013,30(5):815-821.
[2] IPCC.Summary for Policy Makers of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.Cambridge:Cambridge Uni-versity Press,2013.
[3] Zhang H Q,Gao X J,Li Y H.Climate impacts of land-use change in China and its uncertainty in a global model simulation.Climate Dynamics,2009,32(4):473-494.
[4] 陆晓波,徐海明,孙丞虎,何金海.中国近50a地温的变化特征.南京气象学院学报,2006,29(5):706-712.
[5] 阿布都克日木·阿巴司.喀什市1961-2007年浅层地温的变化.沙漠与绿洲气象,2008,2(4):22-24.
[6] 王风,宋春雨,韩晓增.东北黑土区土壤温度变化特征.黑龙江农业科学,2006,(6):31-33.
[7] 范泽孟,岳天祥,陈传法,孙晓芳.中国气温与降水的时空变化趋势分析.地球信息科学学报,2011,13(4):526-533.
[8] 肖辉林.土壤温度上升与森林衰退.热带亚热带土壤科学,1995,4(4):246-249.
[9] 周志田,成升魁,刘允芬,李家永.中国亚热带红壤丘陵区不同土地利用方式下土壤CO2排放规律初探.资源科学,2002,24(2):83-87.
[10] 王佳琳,潘志华,韩国琳,程路,董智强,张婧婷,潘宇鹰,黄蕾,赵慧.1961-2010年中国0cm地温变化特征及其与气温变化的关系.资源科学,2016,38(9):1733-1741.
[11] 任国玉,徐铭志,初子莹,郭军,李庆祥,刘小宁,王颖.近54年中国地面气温变化.气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):717-727.
[12] 杨明,李维亮,刘煜,徐海明.近50年我国西部地区气象要素的变化特征.应用气象学报,2010,21(2):198-205.
[13] 姜晓,魏东平.联合气象地温资料分析北京地区的气候变化.科技导报,2010,28(7):22-27.
[14] 杜军,李春,廖健,拉巴,路红亚.近45年拉萨浅层地温对气候变化的响应.气象,2007,33(10):61-67.
[15] 周刊社,罗骕翾,杜军,建军,石磊.西藏高原地温对气温变化的响应.中国农业气象,2015,36(2):129-138.
[16] 张焕平,张占峰,汪青春,金惠瑛.近40年青海浅层地温的变化特征.中国农业气象,2013,34(2):146-152.
[17] Retnakumar K,Renuka G,Rao G.Relation between pre-monsoon soil temperature and monsoon rainfall in a tropical station.Mausam,2000,51(4):365-366.
[18] 汤懋苍,赖特E R.美国地温分布与后一季降水的相关分析.高原气象,1986,5(4):293-307.
[19] 黄显蜀.浅层地温变化与短期暴雨天气.高原气象,1985,4(2):190-192.
[20] 董雪,田静,吴骅,刘素华.考虑土壤水分影响的比辐射率方法在地表温度反演中的应用.资源科学,2017,39(8):1592-1604.
[21] 李放,沈彦俊.地表遥感蒸散发模型研究进展.资源科学,2014,36(7):1478-1488.
[22] 陈鹏狮,张玉书,冯锐,于文颖,武晋雯,纪瑞鹏.50年来辽宁省地温变化规律及播种期地温预报研究.干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(6):163-168.
[23] 周斌,陈鹏狮,李晶,林俊杰,王婷,张晓影.辽宁省春季表层地温变化特征及其与气温的关系.中国农学通报,2014,30(36):275-280.
[24] 隋景跃,张国林,戴海燕,吴晓华.近52a辽宁西部地区浅层地温变化特征分析.山西农业科学,2013,41(8):852-855.
[25] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(第二版).北京:气象出版社,2007:1-296.
[26] 张璐,周跃.Mann-Kendall检验及其在河流悬沙浓度时间序列分析中的运用.亚热带水土保持,2007,19(4):13-16.
[27] Zhang Q,Xu C Y,Chen Y D.Wavelet-based characterization of water level behaviors in the Pearl River estuary,China.Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2010,24(1):81-92.
[28] Liu D L,Liu X Z,Li B C,Zhao S W,Li X G.Multiple time scale analysis of river runoff using wavelet transform for Dagujia River Basin,Yantai,China.Chinese Geographical Science,2009,19(2):158-167.
[29] Liu D,Fu Q,Ma Y S,Sun A H.Annual precipitation series wavelet analysis of well-irrigation area in Sanjiang Pla//Proceedings of the Second IFIP International Conference on Computer and Computing Technologies in Agriculture.Boston,MA:Springer,2008:563-572.
[30] 王文圣,丁晶,向红莲.水文时间序列多时间尺度分析的小波变换法.四川大学学报:工程科学版,2002,34(6):14-17.
[31] 邓自旺,林振山,周晓兰.西安市近50年来气候变化多时间尺度分析.高原气象,1997,16(1):81-93.
[32] 郑治真,沈萍,杨选辉,万玉莉.小波变换及其MATLAB工具的应用.北京:地震出版社,2001:1-166.
[33] 李述训,南卓铜,赵林.冻融作用对系统与环境间能量交换的影响.冰川冻土,2002,24(2):109-115.
[34] 施能,陈家其,屠其璞.中国近100年来4个年代际的气候变化特征.气象学报,1995,53(4):431-439.
[35] Wan G N,Yang M X,Wang X J.Variations in soil temperature at BJ site on the central Tibetan Plateau.Journal of Mountain Science,2012,9(2):274-285.
[36] Bartlett M G,Chapman D S,Harris R N.A decade of ground-air temperature tracking at Emigrant Pass Observatory,Utah.Journal of Climate,2006,19(15):3722-3731.
[37] 刘万俊.影响地温日极值的要素分析.四川气象,2002,22(4):61-62.
[38] 宫恒瑞.1981-2010年乌昌地区20 cm蒸发皿蒸发量变化原因分析.干旱区研究,2013,30(5):815-821.
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