江南丘陵地区湿润指数变化特征及敏感性分析
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摘要
基于江南丘陵及其周边地区69个气象站点1951—2013年的逐月降水量、月均气温、风速、日照百分率和相对湿度等数据,运用Penman-Monteith模型计算出了参考蒸散量和地表湿润指数,并结合地表湿润指数倾向率、M-K检验、ArcGIS反距离加权插值等方法,探讨了研究区地表干湿状况时空变化特征及敏感性分析。结果表明:近63 a,江南丘陵地区地表湿润指数在波动中呈现降低趋势,其10 a变化倾向率为-0.05,趋于干旱;累计距平可分为波动变化时期、高于多年平均地表湿润指数时期和低于多年平均地表湿润指数时期;地表湿润指数在1955年左右存在一个由湿变干的突变点。地表湿润指数的年代际和季节变化上,20世纪50年代最高,21世纪初最低,但不论季节还是年代际,春季最高,秋季最低。地表湿润指数的空间变化,南部和西部低,北部和东部高。地表湿润指数倾向率空间变化则是东南部较区域其他地方高,为正值,季节变化除夏季外,其他季节地表湿润指数倾向率都以负值为主。地表湿润指数与降水量、相对湿度的相关性较好,但在空间上各气象要素与地表湿润指数的季节相关性存在差异。此外,江南丘陵地区地表湿润指数与海拔存在较好的相关性,海拔越高地表湿润指数越大。
Based on the data of monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, wind speed, sunshine percentage and relative humidity of 69 meteorological stations in Jiangnan hilly area and its surrounding areas from 1951 to 2013, Penman-Monteith model was used to calculate the reference evapotranspiration and the surface wetness index, and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and sensitivity analysis of surface wet and dry conditions in the study area were discussed by combining with the tendency index of surface wettability index, M-K test and ArcGIS inverse distance weighted interpolation. The results showed that in the recent 63 years, the surface wetness index in the Jiangnan hilly presented the fluctuating decrease trend, and the 10 years tendency of variation tended to be-0.05, which tended to be dry. The accumulated anomalies could be divided into fluctuating periods, the index period and below the multi-year mean surface wetness index period; the surface wetness index around 1955 had the wet-dry mutation point. The interdecadal and seasonal variations of the surface wetness index were the highest in the 1950 s and the lowest in the early 21 st century, but the highest was in spring and the lowest was in autumn regardless of seasons or decadal periods. Spatial variability of surface wetness index was low in the south and west, high in the north and east. The spatial variability of the wetland index tended to be higher in the southeast than that in other parts of the region. The seasonally wetted tendencies of the surface wetness indices in all seasons were negative except for summer. The correlativity between surface wetness index and precipitation and relative humidity was better, but there were differences in the seasonal correlation between each meteorological factor and surface wetness index in space. In addition, there was a good correlation between the surface wetness index and the elevation in the Jiangnan hilly area. The higher the elevation is, the higher the wettability index of the surface is.
Based on the data of monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, wind speed, sunshine percentage and relative humidity of 69 meteorological stations in Jiangnan hilly area and its surrounding areas from 1951 to 2013, Penman-Monteith model was used to calculate the reference evapotranspiration and the surface wetness index, and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and sensitivity analysis of surface wet and dry conditions in the study area were discussed by combining with the tendency index of surface wettability index, M-K test and ArcGIS inverse distance weighted interpolation. The results showed that in the recent 63 years, the surface wetness index in the Jiangnan hilly presented the fluctuating decrease trend, and the 10 years tendency of variation tended to be-0.05, which tended to be dry. The accumulated anomalies could be divided into fluctuating periods, the index period and below the multi-year mean surface wetness index period; the surface wetness index around 1955 had the wet-dry mutation point. The interdecadal and seasonal variations of the surface wetness index were the highest in the 1950 s and the lowest in the early 21 st century, but the highest was in spring and the lowest was in autumn regardless of seasons or decadal periods. Spatial variability of surface wetness index was low in the south and west, high in the north and east. The spatial variability of the wetland index tended to be higher in the southeast than that in other parts of the region. The seasonally wetted tendencies of the surface wetness indices in all seasons were negative except for summer. The correlativity between surface wetness index and precipitation and relative humidity was better, but there were differences in the seasonal correlation between each meteorological factor and surface wetness index in space. In addition, there was a good correlation between the surface wetness index and the elevation in the Jiangnan hilly area. The higher the elevation is, the higher the wettability index of the surface is.
引文
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[21]左大康,王懿贤,陈建绥.中国地区太阳总辐射的空间分布特征[M]//左大康.地理研究论文选.北京:科学出版社,1993.
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[23]Zhou H, Wu J, Geng G, et al. Enhancing the ability of a soil moisture: based index for agricultural drought monitoring by incorporating root distribution[J]. Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2017.53(6):1409-1423.
[24]赵冰雪,王雷,程东亚.安徽省气象数据空间插值方法比较与分布特征[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(3):141-145.
[25]刘友存,焦克勤,赵奎,等.中国天山地区降水对全球气候变化的响应[J].冰川冻土,2017,39(4):748-759.
[26]陈贺,李原园,杨志峰,等.地形因素对降水分布影响的研究[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(1):119-122.
[27]张克新,潘少明,曹立国,等.横断山区季风期水分盈亏量时空变化特征及其与若干气候指数的相关性分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(11):1869-1877.
[2]Huo Z L, Dai X Q, Feng S Y, et al. Effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration and aridity index in arid region of China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2013,492:24-34.
[3]王允,刘普幸,曹立国,等.基于湿润指数的1960—2011年中国西南地区地表干湿变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(5):830-838.
[4]马柱国,黄刚,甘文强,等.近代中国北方干湿变化趋势的多时段特征[J].大气科学,2005,29(15):67l-681.
[5]黄小燕,张明军,贾文雄,等.中国西北地区地表干湿变化及影响因素[J].水科学进展,2011,22(2):151-159.
[6]姚玉璧,杨金虎,岳平,等.近50年三江源地表湿润指数变化特征及其影响因素[J].生态环境学报,2011,20(11):1585-1593.
[7]邢文渊,马雷凯,肖继东,等.北疆地区地表湿润指数变化分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2009,3(4):9-12.
[8]邢文渊,刘志军,肖继东,等.南疆地区地表湿润指数变化分析[J].新疆师范大学学报:自然科学版,2009,28(3):4-7.
[9]赵一飞,邹欣庆,张勃,等.黄土高原甘肃区降水变化与气候指数关系[J].地理科学,2015,35(10):1325-1332.
[10]杜军,边多,拉巴,等.1971—2005年西藏主要农区农田蒸散量变化特征及其与环境因子的关系[J].冰川冻土,2009,31(5):815-821.
[11]张世虎,王一峰,侯勤正,等.青海省干旱指数时空变化特征与气候指数的关系[J].草业科学,2015,32(12):1980-1987.
[12]张淑杰,张玉书,陈鹏狮,等.东北地区湿润指数及其干湿界线的变化特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2011,29(3):227-232.
[13]王富强,陈希,魏怀斌.东江流域参考蒸散量及湿润指数变化特征研究[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(1):7-10.
[14]申双和,张方敏,盛琼.1975—2004年中国湿润指数时空变化特征[J].农业工程学报,2009,25(1):11-15.
[15]胡振鹏,林玉茹.气候变化对鄱阳湖流域干旱灾害影响及其对策[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(7):897-904.
[16]李景保,代勇,尹辉,等.1950—2009年洞庭湖流域农业旱灾演变特征及趋势预测[J].冰川冻土,2011,33(6):1391-1398.
[17]李弋林,徐袁,钱维宏.近300年来中国西部气候的干湿变化[J].高原气象,2003,22(4):371-377.
[18]徐慧,张方敏,黄进.江苏省1961—2012年干湿时空变化及对单季稻产量的潜在影响[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(6):250-254.
[19]Allen R G, Pereira L S, Raes D, et al. Crop Evapotranspiration: Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements[R]. Rome: FAO, 1998.
[20]王菱,陈沈斌,侯光良.利用彭曼公式计算潜在蒸发的高度订正方法[ J].气象学报,1988,46(3):381-383.
[21]左大康,王懿贤,陈建绥.中国地区太阳总辐射的空间分布特征[M]//左大康.地理研究论文选.北京:科学出版社,1993.
[22]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M]//魏凤英.气候变化趋势.北京:气象出版社,2007.
[23]Zhou H, Wu J, Geng G, et al. Enhancing the ability of a soil moisture: based index for agricultural drought monitoring by incorporating root distribution[J]. Jawra Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2017.53(6):1409-1423.
[24]赵冰雪,王雷,程东亚.安徽省气象数据空间插值方法比较与分布特征[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(3):141-145.
[25]刘友存,焦克勤,赵奎,等.中国天山地区降水对全球气候变化的响应[J].冰川冻土,2017,39(4):748-759.
[26]陈贺,李原园,杨志峰,等.地形因素对降水分布影响的研究[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(1):119-122.
[27]张克新,潘少明,曹立国,等.横断山区季风期水分盈亏量时空变化特征及其与若干气候指数的相关性分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(11):1869-1877.
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