地震对区域农业经济的影响研究——基于中国西部地区地级市面板数据的实证分析
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摘要
地震灾害具有破坏力度大和突发性强等特点,不仅会破坏农业耕地、农村水利和交通通讯等基础设施,也会对农业产出和农村人力资本造成重大影响和毁损。本文利用2000—2016年中国西部地区地级市面板数据,评估地震对区域农业经济的影响,实证结果表明地震发生导致区域农业产出下降约10. 6%,农业人口数量下降约7. 53%。同时,通过地区异质性分析发现,相较于西北地区而言,地震对西南地区农业经济的破坏力更大,地震仅对西北地区农业产出有负面影响,而地震对西南地区的农业人口和产出都会产生负面作用。
The earthquake disaster,which has the characteristics of great destruction and sudden intensity,will not only destroy the infrastructure of agricultural land,rural water conservancy and traffic and communication,but also cause significant influence and damage to agricultural output and rural human capital. In this paper,the impact of earthquake on regional agricultural economy is evaluated by using the panel data in 2000—2016 of Western China. The results show that the earthquake caused the decrease of agricultural output by about 10. 6% and the decrease of agricultural population by about7. 53%. At the same time,through the analysis of regional heterogeneity,it is found that the earthquake is more destructive to the agricultural economy in the southwest than in the northwest,and the earthquake only has a negative impact on the agricultural output of the northwest region,and the earthquake will have a negative effect on the agricultural population and output in the southwest region.
The earthquake disaster,which has the characteristics of great destruction and sudden intensity,will not only destroy the infrastructure of agricultural land,rural water conservancy and traffic and communication,but also cause significant influence and damage to agricultural output and rural human capital. In this paper,the impact of earthquake on regional agricultural economy is evaluated by using the panel data in 2000—2016 of Western China. The results show that the earthquake caused the decrease of agricultural output by about 10. 6% and the decrease of agricultural population by about7. 53%. At the same time,through the analysis of regional heterogeneity,it is found that the earthquake is more destructive to the agricultural economy in the southwest than in the northwest,and the earthquake only has a negative impact on the agricultural output of the northwest region,and the earthquake will have a negative effect on the agricultural population and output in the southwest region.
引文
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[21]匡远凤.技术效率、技术进步、要素积累与中国农业经济增长:基于SFA的经验分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2012(1):3. DOI:10. 13653/j.cnki. jqte. 2012. 01. 009.
[22]姜松,王钊.农民专业合作社、联合经营与农业经济增长:中国经验证据实证[J].财贸研究,2013(4):31. DOI:10. 19337/j. cnki. 34-1093/f. 2013. 04. 004.
[23]姚延婷,陈万明,李晓宁.环境友好农业技术创新与农业经济增长关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(8):122. DOI:10. 3969/j. issn. 1002-2104. 2014. 08. 016.
[24]孙一平,周向.异质性人力资本对中国农业经济增长的影响研究:基于省际面板数据[J].农业技术经济,2015(4):108. DOI:10. 13246/j. cnki. jae. 2015.04. 013.
[2]郭章林,刘明广,解德才.震灾经济损失评估的遗传神经网络模型[J].自然灾害学报,2004(6):92.DOI:10. 13577/j. jnd. 2004. 0616.
[3] KUNREUTHER H,PAULY M. Rules rather than discretion:Lessons from Hurricane Katrina[J]. Journal of Risk&Uncertainty,2006,33(1):101. DOI:10.1007/s11166-006-0173-x.
[4] KLOMP J,VALCKX K. Natural disasters and economic growth:A meta-analysis[J]. Global Environmental Change,2014,26(1):183. DOI:10. 1016/j. gloenvcha. 2014. 02. 006.
[5]杨凌,寇宏伟.自然灾害的经济影响研究:以汶川大地震为例[J].科研管理,2017(6):51. DOI:10.19571/j. cnki. 1000-2995. 2017. 06. 006.
[6] WINTER S. Economic Theory and the Cities[M]. New York:Academic press,1963.
[7] GILBER R,KREIMER A. Learning from the World Bank's Experience of Natural Disaster Related Assistance[C]//Disaster Management Facility Working Paper Series 2. Urban Development Division, World Bank,Washington,D. C.,1980.
[8] YOSHIO K,TATANO H,OKADA N. Long-term Effects of the Hyogo Nanbu Earthquake on Economic Activities at the port of Kobe:Time Series Analysis[R].Division of Integrated Management for Disaster Risk,2000.
[9] AN D,GORDON P,MOORE J E,et al. Regional Economic Models for Performance Based Earthquake Engineering[J]. Natural Hazards Review,2004,5(4):188. DOI:10. 1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2004)5:4(188).
[10] OKUYAMA Y. Modeling Spatial Economic Impacts of an Earthquake:Input-output Approaches[J]. Disaster Prevention&Management,2004,13(4):297.DOI:10. 1108/0965356 0410556519.
[11] ROSE A,BENAVIDES J,CHANG S E,et al. The Regional Economic Impact of an Earthquake:Direct and Indirect Effects of Electricity Lifeline Disruptions[J].Journal of Regional Science,2010,37(3):437.DOI:10. 1111/0022-4146. 00063.
[12] CAVALLO E,POWELL A,BECERRA O. Estimating the Direct Economic Damages of the Earthquake in Haiti[J]. Economic Journal,2010,120(546):298.DOI:10. 1111/j. 1468-0297. 2010. 02378. x.
[13] KAJITANI Y,CHANG S E,TATANO H. Economic Impacts of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake and Tsunami[J]. Earthquake Spectra, 2013, 29(S1):457. DOI:10. 1193/1. 4000108.
[14]何代欣,叶子荣,江晓莉.地震及经济环境变化对经济发展的影响:来自四川的最新经验证据[J].经济管理,2009(5):15. DOI:10. 19616/j. cnki. bmj.2009. 05. 004.
[15]张季风.东日本大地震对日本经济与世界经济的影响[J].现代日本经济,2011(4):1. DOI:10.3969/j. issn. 1000-355X. 2011. 04. 001.
[16]卢晶亮,冯帅章,艾春荣.自然灾害及政府救助对农户收入与消费的影响:来自汶川大地震的经验[J].经济学(季刊),2014(2):745. DOI:10.13821/j. cnki. ceq. 2014. 02. 004.
[17]许闲,张涵博,陈卓苗.财政波动风险与保险平滑机制:以地震灾害救助为例[J].财经研究,2016(5):28. DOI:10. 16538/j. cnki. jfe. 2016. 05. 003.
[18]何霖.我国农房保险与巨灾保险的衔接问题[J].西北农林科技大学学报(社会科学版),2017(4):121. DOI:10. 13968/j. cnki. 1009-9107. 2017. 04. 16.
[19]万膑莲,翟国方.基于韧性的灾后区域经济增长模式研究:以汶川地震为例[J].现代城市研究,2017(9):41. DOI:1009-6000(2017)09-0041-07.
[20]尉建文,韩杨,施晨.需求法则还是优势法则?汶川地震中资源分配研究[J].东南大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018(1):107. DOI:10. 13916/j. cnki.issn1671-511x. 2018. 01.
[21]匡远凤.技术效率、技术进步、要素积累与中国农业经济增长:基于SFA的经验分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2012(1):3. DOI:10. 13653/j.cnki. jqte. 2012. 01. 009.
[22]姜松,王钊.农民专业合作社、联合经营与农业经济增长:中国经验证据实证[J].财贸研究,2013(4):31. DOI:10. 19337/j. cnki. 34-1093/f. 2013. 04. 004.
[23]姚延婷,陈万明,李晓宁.环境友好农业技术创新与农业经济增长关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(8):122. DOI:10. 3969/j. issn. 1002-2104. 2014. 08. 016.
[24]孙一平,周向.异质性人力资本对中国农业经济增长的影响研究:基于省际面板数据[J].农业技术经济,2015(4):108. DOI:10. 13246/j. cnki. jae. 2015.04. 013.
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