基于确定性系数组合模型的区域滑坡敏感性评价
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摘要
本文以四川茂县叠溪镇到石大关乡为研究区,根据野外资料并结合研究区的基本情况,选取了坡度、剖面曲率、起伏度、坡向、距河流距离、高程、地层、距断层距离、土地类型、植被覆盖度10个影响因子。以GIS技术作为操作平台,采用确定性系数+层次分析法(CF-AHP)、确定性系数+逻辑回归方法(CF-LR)和确定性系数+神经网络的多层感知器方法(CF-MLP) 3种方法对研究区滑坡灾害敏感性进行评价,将该区域滑坡灾害划分为极低、低、中、高敏感区4类,并通过受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)检验模型的效果。CF-AHP、CF-LR和CF-MLP组合模型ROC曲线的线下面积(AUC)分别为0. 850、0. 884和0. 867,CF-LR组合模型效果最好。CF-LR组合模型中,高、中、低和极低敏感区面积分别占研究区总面积的11. 3%、25. 1%、22. 5%和41. 1%。研究结果表明,高敏感区主要集中在主要水系周围与断层集中区域,计算出的敏感性分区结果与研究区实际情况接近,能够在地质灾害风险评价中起到重要参考作用。
The research area of this paper is located from Diexi Township to Shidaguan Township,Maoxian County,Sichuan Province. Ten impact factors are selected according to the field data and the basic conditions of the study area. They are the slope,slope direction,section curvature,elevation,undulation,stratum,distance from the river,distance from the fault,land type and vegetation coverage. Using GIS technology as the operating platform,three methods are used to evaluate the sensitivity of landslide hazard in the study area. They are the deterministic coefficient + analytic hierarchy process( CF-AHP),the deterministic coefficient + logistic regression method( CF-LR) and the deterministic coefficient + multi-layer perceptron method of neural network( CF-MLP),The landslide hazard in this area is divided into four categories: extremely low,low,medium and high sensitive areas. The effect of the model is tested by receiver operating characteristic curve( ROC). The under-line area( AUC) of the ROC curves of the CF-AHP,CF-LR and CF-MLP combined models are 0. 850,0. 884 and 0. 867,respectively. The CF-LR combination model works best. In the CF-LR combination model,the areas of high,medium,low and extremely low sensitive area account for 11. 3%,25. 1%,22. 5% and 41. 1% of the total area of the study area,respectively. The results show that the high sensitive area is mainly located around the main water system and fault-developed area. The calculated sensitivity zoning results are close to the actual situation in field.Thus,the results are valuable for risk assessment of geological disasters.
The research area of this paper is located from Diexi Township to Shidaguan Township,Maoxian County,Sichuan Province. Ten impact factors are selected according to the field data and the basic conditions of the study area. They are the slope,slope direction,section curvature,elevation,undulation,stratum,distance from the river,distance from the fault,land type and vegetation coverage. Using GIS technology as the operating platform,three methods are used to evaluate the sensitivity of landslide hazard in the study area. They are the deterministic coefficient + analytic hierarchy process( CF-AHP),the deterministic coefficient + logistic regression method( CF-LR) and the deterministic coefficient + multi-layer perceptron method of neural network( CF-MLP),The landslide hazard in this area is divided into four categories: extremely low,low,medium and high sensitive areas. The effect of the model is tested by receiver operating characteristic curve( ROC). The under-line area( AUC) of the ROC curves of the CF-AHP,CF-LR and CF-MLP combined models are 0. 850,0. 884 and 0. 867,respectively. The CF-LR combination model works best. In the CF-LR combination model,the areas of high,medium,low and extremely low sensitive area account for 11. 3%,25. 1%,22. 5% and 41. 1% of the total area of the study area,respectively. The results show that the high sensitive area is mainly located around the main water system and fault-developed area. The calculated sensitivity zoning results are close to the actual situation in field.Thus,the results are valuable for risk assessment of geological disasters.
引文
Bai S B,Wang J,LüG N,et al.2010.GIS-based logistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping of the zhongxian segment in the three gorges area,China[J].Geomorphology,115(1-2):23-31．
Chen Y P.2010.Comprehensive evaluation of multi-models of landslide geological hazard in Guizhou Province Based on GIS[D].Changsha:Central South University．
Chen W,Li W P,Chai H C,et al.2016.GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping using analytical hierarchy process(AHP)and certainty factor(CF)models for the Baozhong region of Baoji city,China[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,75:1-14．
Fan Z Y,Gou X F,Qin M Y,et al.2018.Information and logistic regression models based coupling analysis for susceptibility of geological hazards[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,26(2):340-347．
Feng H J,Zhou A G,Tang X M,et al.2017.Susceptibility analysis of factors controlling rainfall-triggered landslides using certainty factor method[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,25(2):436-446．
Heckerman D.2013.Probabilistic interpretation for mycin's certainty factors[J].Machine Intelligence&Pattern Recognition,4:9-20．
Hamid R P,Majid M,Biswajeet P.2012.Landslide susceptibility mapping using index of entropy and conditional probability models in GIS:Safarood Basin,Iran[J].Catena,97:71-84．
Hong H Y,Pradhan B,Xu C,et al.2015.Spatial prediction of landslide hazard at the Yihuang area(China)using two-class kernel logistic regression,alternating decision tree and support vector machines[J].Catena,133:266-281．
Kou L N,Bian J,Zhang T T,et al.2017.The application of GIS-based information method in susceptibility evaluation of regional geological hazards in Minhe county,Qinghai Province[J].Northwestern Geology,50(2):244-248．
Wang L J,Sawada K,Moriguchi S.2013.Landslide susceptibility analysis with logistic regression model based on FCM sampling strategy[J].Computers&Geosciences,57:81-92．
Liu L N,Xu C,Chen J.2014.Landslide factor sensitivity analyses for landslides triggered by 2013 lushan earthquake using GIS platform and certainty factor method[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,22(6):1176-1186．
Ni H Y,Wang D W,Chen X Y,et al.2015.Formation characteristics and stability assessment of geological hazards in Yajiang City,Sichuan Province[J].Geoscience,29(2):474-480．
Tsangaratos P,llia I.2016.Landslide susceptibility mapping using a modified decision tree classifier in the Xanthi Perfection,Greece[J].Landslides,13(2):305-320．
Park S,Choi C,Kim B,et al.2012.Landslide susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio,analytic hierarchy process,logistic regression,and artificial neural network methods at the Inje area,Korea[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,68(5):1443-1464．
Pourghasemi H R,Rossi M.2017.Landslide susceptibility modeling in a landslide prone area in Mazandarn Province,north of Iran:Acomparison between GLM,GAM,MARS,and M-AHP methods[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,130(1-2):609-633．
Shang M,Ma R,Zhang Y Y,et al.2018.GIS based weights of evidence method for rock fall susceptibility[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,26(5):1211-1218．
Shortliffe E H,Buchanan B G.1975.A model of inexact reasoning in medicine[J].Mathematical Biosciences,23(3):351-379．
Saaty T L.1980.The analytic hierarchy process:planning,priority setting resource allocation[M].New York:Mc Graw-Hill．
Tan C.2013.Susceptibility appraisal of landslide adjacent to the dam site of Yansangshu hydro-power station Base on 3S technology[D].Changchun:Jilin University．
Wang Z H,Hu Z W,Zhao W J,et al.2015.Research on regional landslide susceptibility assessment based on multiple layer perceptron---Taking the hilly area in Sichuan as an Example[J].Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering,35(5):691-698．
Wang Z,Yi F C,Chen T F.2012.Geo-hazard susceptibility evaluation of Mianyang city based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Science&Technology Review,30(31):53-60．
Xu Y Z,Lu Y N,Li D Y,et al.2016.GIS and information model based landslide susceptibility assessment in granite area of Guangxi province[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,24(4):693-703．
Xu C,Dai F C,Yao X,et al.2009.GIS-based landslide susceptibility assessment using analytical hierarchy process in Wenchuan earthquake region[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,28(S2):3978-3985．
Xu C,Dai F C,Yao X,et al.2010.GIS platform and certainty factor analysis method based Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility evaluation[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,18(1):15-26．
Xia H,Yin K L,Liang X,et al.2018.Landslide susceptibility assessment based on SVM-ANN Models:a case stualy for Wushan County in the Three Gorges Reservoir[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,29(5):13-19．
Zhang X D,Liu X N,Zhao Z P,et al.2018.Comparative study of geological hazards susceptibility assessment:constraints from the information value+logistic regression modeland the cf+logistic regression model[J].Geoscience 32(3):602-610．
陈燕平．2010．基于GIS的贵州省滑坡地质灾害易发性多模型综合评价[D]．长沙:中南大学．
樊芷吟，苟晓峰，秦明月，等．2018．基于信息量模型与Logistic回归模型耦合的地质灾害易发性评价[J]．工程地质学报，26(2):340-347．
冯杭建，周爱国，唐小明，等．2017．基于确定性系数的降雨型滑坡影响因子敏感性分析[J]．工程地质学报，25(2):436-446．
寇丽娜，边疆，张婷婷，等．2017．基于GIS的信息量法在青海民和区域地质灾害易发性评价中的应用[J]．西北地质，50(2):244-248．
刘丽娜，许冲，陈剑．2014.GIS支持下基于CF方法的2013年芦山地震滑坡因子敏感性分析[J]．工程地质学报，22(6):1176-1186．
倪化勇，王德伟，陈绪钰，等．2015．四川雅江县城地质灾害发育特征与稳定性评价[J]．现代地质，29(2):474-480．
尚敏，马锐，张英莹，等．2018．基于GIS的证据权重法的崩塌敏感性分析研究[J]．工程地质学报，26(5):1211-1218．
谭春．2013．基于3S技术的岩桑树水电站近坝区滑坡敏感性评价[D]．长春:吉林大学．
王志恒，胡卓玮，赵文吉，等．2015．基于多层感知器模型的区域滑坡敏感性评价研究---以四川低山丘陵区为例[J]．防灾减灾工程学报，35(5):691-698．
王哲，易发成，陈廷方．2012．基于模糊综合评判的绵阳市地质灾害易发性评价[J]．科技导报，30(31):53-60．
许英姿，卢玉南，李东阳，等．2016．基于GIS和信息量模型的广西花岗岩分布区滑坡易发性评价[J]．工程地质学报，24(4):693-703．
许冲，戴福初，姚鑫，等．2009.GIS支持下基于层次分析法的汶川地震区滑坡易发性评价[J]．岩石力学与工程学报，28(S2):3978-3985．
许冲，戴福初，姚鑫，等．2010．基于GIS与确定性系数分析方法的汶川地震滑坡易发性评价[J]．工程地质学报，18(1):15-26．
夏辉，殷坤龙，梁鑫，等．2018．基于SVM-ANN模型的滑坡易发性评价---以三峡库区巫山县为例[J]．中国地质灾害与防治学报，29(5):13-19．
张晓东，刘湘南，赵志鹏，等．2018．信息量模型、确定性系数模型与逻辑回归模型组合评价地质灾害敏感性的对比研究[J]．现代地质，32(3):602-610.
Chen Y P.2010.Comprehensive evaluation of multi-models of landslide geological hazard in Guizhou Province Based on GIS[D].Changsha:Central South University．
Chen W,Li W P,Chai H C,et al.2016.GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping using analytical hierarchy process(AHP)and certainty factor(CF)models for the Baozhong region of Baoji city,China[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,75:1-14．
Fan Z Y,Gou X F,Qin M Y,et al.2018.Information and logistic regression models based coupling analysis for susceptibility of geological hazards[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,26(2):340-347．
Feng H J,Zhou A G,Tang X M,et al.2017.Susceptibility analysis of factors controlling rainfall-triggered landslides using certainty factor method[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,25(2):436-446．
Heckerman D.2013.Probabilistic interpretation for mycin's certainty factors[J].Machine Intelligence&Pattern Recognition,4:9-20．
Hamid R P,Majid M,Biswajeet P.2012.Landslide susceptibility mapping using index of entropy and conditional probability models in GIS:Safarood Basin,Iran[J].Catena,97:71-84．
Hong H Y,Pradhan B,Xu C,et al.2015.Spatial prediction of landslide hazard at the Yihuang area(China)using two-class kernel logistic regression,alternating decision tree and support vector machines[J].Catena,133:266-281．
Kou L N,Bian J,Zhang T T,et al.2017.The application of GIS-based information method in susceptibility evaluation of regional geological hazards in Minhe county,Qinghai Province[J].Northwestern Geology,50(2):244-248．
Wang L J,Sawada K,Moriguchi S.2013.Landslide susceptibility analysis with logistic regression model based on FCM sampling strategy[J].Computers&Geosciences,57:81-92．
Liu L N,Xu C,Chen J.2014.Landslide factor sensitivity analyses for landslides triggered by 2013 lushan earthquake using GIS platform and certainty factor method[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,22(6):1176-1186．
Ni H Y,Wang D W,Chen X Y,et al.2015.Formation characteristics and stability assessment of geological hazards in Yajiang City,Sichuan Province[J].Geoscience,29(2):474-480．
Tsangaratos P,llia I.2016.Landslide susceptibility mapping using a modified decision tree classifier in the Xanthi Perfection,Greece[J].Landslides,13(2):305-320．
Park S,Choi C,Kim B,et al.2012.Landslide susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio,analytic hierarchy process,logistic regression,and artificial neural network methods at the Inje area,Korea[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,68(5):1443-1464．
Pourghasemi H R,Rossi M.2017.Landslide susceptibility modeling in a landslide prone area in Mazandarn Province,north of Iran:Acomparison between GLM,GAM,MARS,and M-AHP methods[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,130(1-2):609-633．
Shang M,Ma R,Zhang Y Y,et al.2018.GIS based weights of evidence method for rock fall susceptibility[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,26(5):1211-1218．
Shortliffe E H,Buchanan B G.1975.A model of inexact reasoning in medicine[J].Mathematical Biosciences,23(3):351-379．
Saaty T L.1980.The analytic hierarchy process:planning,priority setting resource allocation[M].New York:Mc Graw-Hill．
Tan C.2013.Susceptibility appraisal of landslide adjacent to the dam site of Yansangshu hydro-power station Base on 3S technology[D].Changchun:Jilin University．
Wang Z H,Hu Z W,Zhao W J,et al.2015.Research on regional landslide susceptibility assessment based on multiple layer perceptron---Taking the hilly area in Sichuan as an Example[J].Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering,35(5):691-698．
Wang Z,Yi F C,Chen T F.2012.Geo-hazard susceptibility evaluation of Mianyang city based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Science&Technology Review,30(31):53-60．
Xu Y Z,Lu Y N,Li D Y,et al.2016.GIS and information model based landslide susceptibility assessment in granite area of Guangxi province[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,24(4):693-703．
Xu C,Dai F C,Yao X,et al.2009.GIS-based landslide susceptibility assessment using analytical hierarchy process in Wenchuan earthquake region[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,28(S2):3978-3985．
Xu C,Dai F C,Yao X,et al.2010.GIS platform and certainty factor analysis method based Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility evaluation[J].Journal of Engineering Geology,18(1):15-26．
Xia H,Yin K L,Liang X,et al.2018.Landslide susceptibility assessment based on SVM-ANN Models:a case stualy for Wushan County in the Three Gorges Reservoir[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,29(5):13-19．
Zhang X D,Liu X N,Zhao Z P,et al.2018.Comparative study of geological hazards susceptibility assessment:constraints from the information value+logistic regression modeland the cf+logistic regression model[J].Geoscience 32(3):602-610．
陈燕平．2010．基于GIS的贵州省滑坡地质灾害易发性多模型综合评价[D]．长沙:中南大学．
樊芷吟，苟晓峰，秦明月，等．2018．基于信息量模型与Logistic回归模型耦合的地质灾害易发性评价[J]．工程地质学报，26(2):340-347．
冯杭建，周爱国，唐小明，等．2017．基于确定性系数的降雨型滑坡影响因子敏感性分析[J]．工程地质学报，25(2):436-446．
寇丽娜，边疆，张婷婷，等．2017．基于GIS的信息量法在青海民和区域地质灾害易发性评价中的应用[J]．西北地质，50(2):244-248．
刘丽娜，许冲，陈剑．2014.GIS支持下基于CF方法的2013年芦山地震滑坡因子敏感性分析[J]．工程地质学报，22(6):1176-1186．
倪化勇，王德伟，陈绪钰，等．2015．四川雅江县城地质灾害发育特征与稳定性评价[J]．现代地质，29(2):474-480．
尚敏，马锐，张英莹，等．2018．基于GIS的证据权重法的崩塌敏感性分析研究[J]．工程地质学报，26(5):1211-1218．
谭春．2013．基于3S技术的岩桑树水电站近坝区滑坡敏感性评价[D]．长春:吉林大学．
王志恒，胡卓玮，赵文吉，等．2015．基于多层感知器模型的区域滑坡敏感性评价研究---以四川低山丘陵区为例[J]．防灾减灾工程学报，35(5):691-698．
王哲，易发成，陈廷方．2012．基于模糊综合评判的绵阳市地质灾害易发性评价[J]．科技导报，30(31):53-60．
许英姿，卢玉南，李东阳，等．2016．基于GIS和信息量模型的广西花岗岩分布区滑坡易发性评价[J]．工程地质学报，24(4):693-703．
许冲，戴福初，姚鑫，等．2009.GIS支持下基于层次分析法的汶川地震区滑坡易发性评价[J]．岩石力学与工程学报，28(S2):3978-3985．
许冲，戴福初，姚鑫，等．2010．基于GIS与确定性系数分析方法的汶川地震滑坡易发性评价[J]．工程地质学报，18(1):15-26．
夏辉，殷坤龙，梁鑫，等．2018．基于SVM-ANN模型的滑坡易发性评价---以三峡库区巫山县为例[J]．中国地质灾害与防治学报，29(5):13-19．
张晓东，刘湘南，赵志鹏，等．2018．信息量模型、确定性系数模型与逻辑回归模型组合评价地质灾害敏感性的对比研究[J]．现代地质，32(3):602-610.