大气污染与经济增长关系的再检验——基于门槛回归模型对179个地级以上城市的分组研究
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摘要
目前,随着中国经济的发展,环境问题日益严峻,如何通过分析大气污染与经济增长的关系来实现绿色发展引起广泛关注。以人均收入和第二产业比例为门槛变量,将179个地级以上的城市分成四组,分别进行回归检验,研究在不同类别的地区中,经济增长与大气污染的关系是否符合库兹涅茨曲线规律,另外也探究控制变量对大气污染的影响。实证分析结果发现,低收入、低第二产业比例城市的库兹涅茨曲线呈N型,低收入、高第二产业比例城市呈负向线性,高收入、低第二产业比例城市和高收入、高第二产业比例城市呈倒U型。因此,应因地制宜加快产业结构升级,实现绿色产业发展,调整环境规制力度,完善环保法律法规,加大环保科研投入,推动环保技术创新,以协调环境保护和经济增长之间的关系。
With the development of China economy, environmental problems are becoming increasingly serious, and how to achieve green development by analyzing the relationship between air pollution and economic growth has attracted wide attention. With per capita income and secondary industry ratio as threshold variables, 179 cities above prefecture level are divided into four groups and tested respectively by regression analysis so as to study the relationship between economic growth and atmospheric pollution in different types of regions as well as the influence of control variables on atmospheric pollution. The empirical results show that the Kuznets curve of low-income and low-secondary-industry ratio cities is N-shaped while that of low-income and high-secondary-industry ratio cities is negatively linear, and that of high-income, low-secondary-industry ratio cities and high-income and high-secondary-industry ratio cities is inverted U-shaped. Therefore, it is necessary to speed up the upgrading of industrial structure according to local conditions, realize the development of green industry, adjust the intensity of environmental regulation, perfect environmental protection laws and regulations, increase the investment in environmental protection research and promote technological innovation of environmental protection in order to coordinate the relationship between environmental protection and economic growth.
With the development of China economy, environmental problems are becoming increasingly serious, and how to achieve green development by analyzing the relationship between air pollution and economic growth has attracted wide attention. With per capita income and secondary industry ratio as threshold variables, 179 cities above prefecture level are divided into four groups and tested respectively by regression analysis so as to study the relationship between economic growth and atmospheric pollution in different types of regions as well as the influence of control variables on atmospheric pollution. The empirical results show that the Kuznets curve of low-income and low-secondary-industry ratio cities is N-shaped while that of low-income and high-secondary-industry ratio cities is negatively linear, and that of high-income, low-secondary-industry ratio cities and high-income and high-secondary-industry ratio cities is inverted U-shaped. Therefore, it is necessary to speed up the upgrading of industrial structure according to local conditions, realize the development of green industry, adjust the intensity of environmental regulation, perfect environmental protection laws and regulations, increase the investment in environmental protection research and promote technological innovation of environmental protection in order to coordinate the relationship between environmental protection and economic growth.
引文
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[3]HARBAUGH W T,LEVINSON A,WILSON D M.Reexamining the empirical evidence for an environmental Kuznets curve[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,2002,84(3):541-551.
[4]RUPASINGHA A,GOETZ S J,DEBERTIN D L,et al.The environmental Kuznets curve for US counties:a spatial econometric analysis with extensions[J].Papers in Regional Science,2004,83(2):407-424.
[5]吉丹俊.中国CO2排放环境库兹涅茨假说再验证及政策启示[J].山东财经大学学报,2016,28(5):75-82.
[6]刘芳芳,黄巧萍,刘伟平.地区经济增长与区域碳排放的关系——基于环境库兹涅茨模型的研究[J].中南林业科技大学学报 (社会科学版 ),2018,12(4):20-35.
[7]朱冉,赵梦真,薛俊波.产业转移、经济增长和环境污染——来自环境库兹涅茨曲线的启示[J].生态经济,2018,34(7):68-73.
[8]王菲,杨雪,田阳,等.基于EKC假说的碳排放与经济增长关系实证研究[J].生态经济,2018,34(10):19-23.
[9]高静,黄繁华.贸易视角下经济增长和环境质量的内在机理研究——基于中国30个省市环境库兹涅茨曲线的面板数据分析[J].上海财经大学学报,2011,13(5):66-74.
[10]余东华,张明志.“异质性难题”化解与碳排放EKC再检验——基于门限回归的国别分组研究[J].中国工业经济,2016(7):57-73.
[11]韩玉军,陆旸.门槛效应、经济增长与环境质量[J].统计研究,2008,25(9):24-31.
[12] HANSEN B E.Threshold effect in non-dynamic panels:estimation,testing and inference[J].Journal of Econometrics,1999,93(2):345-368.
[13]韩玉军,陆旸.经济增长与环境的关系——基于对 CO2环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究 [J].经济理论与经济管理,2009(3):5-11.
[14]齐绍洲,严雅雪.基于面板门槛模型的中国雾霾(PM2.5)库兹涅茨曲线研究[J].武汉大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2017,70(4):80-90.
[15]宋锋华.经济增长、大气污染与环境库兹涅茨曲线[J].宏观经济研究,2017(2):89-98.
[16]涂正革,王秋皓.中国工业绿色发展的评价及动力研究——基于地级以上城市数据门限回归的证据[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2018,18(1):47-56.
[17]张贡生.新时代绿色城市群建设问题研究[J].山东财经大学学报,2018,30(3):5-11.
[18]初钊鹏,卞晨,刘昌新,等.基于演化博弈的京津冀雾霾治理环境规制政策研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(12):63-75.