中国铝土矿的供应安全评价
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摘要
中国作为氧化铝、原铝生产消费大国,铝土矿资源贫乏、长期供应不足,供应安全形势严峻。因此针对我国铝土矿供应安全状况评价以及未来供应趋势的判断非常必要。本文利用2000～2018年的数据从资源禀赋安全、国内供需安全、进口市场安全三个方面出发,建立中国铝土矿供应安全评价指标体系,利用熵权-TOPSIS法对2000～2018年铝土矿的安全趋势进行评价,并基于评价结果运用分数阶算子灰色模型对未来的安全趋势进行预测。结果表明:2000～2002年我国铝土矿供应较安全,2003～2005年我国铝土矿供应基本安全,2006～2018年我国铝土矿供应较危险,2019～2023年我国铝土矿供应仍然较危险。
As a major consumer of alumina and primary aluminum,China has a shortage of bauxite resources and insufficient long-term supply.The supply security situation is grim.Therefore,it is necessary to judge the safety status of bauxite supply in China and the judgment of future supply trends.Based on the data from2000 to 2018,this paper constructs China's bauxite supply safety evaluation index system from three aspects:resource endowment safety,domestic supply and demand security,and import market security.The entropy weight-TOPSIS method is used to evaluate the safety trend of bauxite.The fractional order grey model is used to predict future security trends.The results show that the supply of bauxite is relatively safe in China from 2000 to 2002.The supply of bauxite in China is basically safe from 2003 to 2005.The supply of bauxite in China is relatively dangerous in 2006-2018.The supply of bauxite in China is still relatively dangerous in 2019-2023.
As a major consumer of alumina and primary aluminum,China has a shortage of bauxite resources and insufficient long-term supply.The supply security situation is grim.Therefore,it is necessary to judge the safety status of bauxite supply in China and the judgment of future supply trends.Based on the data from2000 to 2018,this paper constructs China's bauxite supply safety evaluation index system from three aspects:resource endowment safety,domestic supply and demand security,and import market security.The entropy weight-TOPSIS method is used to evaluate the safety trend of bauxite.The fractional order grey model is used to predict future security trends.The results show that the supply of bauxite is relatively safe in China from 2000 to 2002.The supply of bauxite in China is basically safe from 2003 to 2005.The supply of bauxite in China is relatively dangerous in 2006-2018.The supply of bauxite in China is still relatively dangerous in 2019-2023.
引文
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[3]胡小平.矿产资源供应安全评价[J].中国国土资源经济,2005,18(7):6-8.HU Xiaoping.Evaluation on mineral resource supply security[J].Natural Resource Economics of China,2005,18(7):6-8.
[4]郑修思.我国石油供应安全评价系统研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2017.
[5]WANG C,ZUO L S,PING-JIE H U,et al.Evaluation and simulation analysis of China's copper security evolution trajectory[J].Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China,2013,23(8):2465-2474.
[6]MOHSIN M,ZHOU P,IQBAL N,et al.Assessing oil supply security of south Asia[J].Energy,2018,155:438-447.
[7]王晓宇.中国天然气供应安全评价及对策[J].中国石油大学学报:社会科学版,2015,31(1):6-10.WANG Xiaoyu.Research on evaluait on and countermeasures of natural gas supply security in China[J].Journal of China University of Petroleum:Edition of Social Science,2015,31(1):6-10.
[8]代涛,沈镭.我国大宗性矿产资源安全分析与评价[J].矿业研究与开发,2009,29(5):97-101.DAI Tao,SHEN Lei.Security analysis and evaluation of major mineral resources in China[J].Mining Research and Development,2009,29(5):97-101.
[9]范振林,马茁卉.利用国外铝土矿资源的安全评价与策略[J].中国矿业,2010,19(3):13-15.FAN Zhenlin,MA Zhuohui.Countermeasures and safety evaluation on the use of foreign bauxite resources[J].China Mining Magazine,2010,19(3):13-15.
[10]王东方,陈伟强.中国铝土矿贸易与供应安全研究[J].资源科学,2018,40(3):498-506.WANG Dongfang,CHEN Weiqiang.Trade and supply security of bauxite in China[J].Resources Science,2018,40(3):498-506.
[11]牛建英.中国矿产资源安全评价指标初探[J].矿床地质,2006(S1):859-864.NIU Jianying.Preliminary study on the evaluation index of China's mineral resources safety[J].Deposit Geology,2006(S1):859-864.
[12]SOVACOOL B K,VALENTINE S V,BAMBAWALE M J,et al.Exploring propositions about perceptions of energy security:an international survey[J].Environmental Science&Policy,2012,16:44-64.
[13]HWANG C L,YOON K S.Multiple attribute decision making[M].Berlin:Spring-verlag,1981.
[14]孟伟.基于分数阶拓展算子的灰色预测模型[D].南京:南京航空航天大学,2015.
[15]马艳.基于熵权TOPSIS法的湖北省土地生态安全评价[J].湖北农业科学,2019,58(8):28-34.MA Yan.Evaluation of land ecological security in Hubei province based on entropy-weight TOPSIS modeling[J].Hubei Agricultural Science,2019,58(8):28-34.
[16]吴晗.中国铁矿石资源供应安全评价[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京),2018.
[17]文博杰,陈毓川,王高尚,等.2035年中国能源与矿产资源需求展望[J].中国工程科学,2019,21(1):68-73.WEN Bojie,CHEN Yuchuan,WANG Gaoshang,et al.China's demand for energy and mineral resources by 2035[J].Engineering Science,2019,21(1):68-73.
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