中国城市雾霾污染的时空分异、动态演化与影响机制
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摘要
利用2014-2016年中国161个城市PM2. 5和PM10日数据,分析了中国城市雾霾污染的时空分异与动态演化。并采用空间计量经济学模型,从全国和区域两个空间层面,分析了中国城市雾霾污染的影响机制。结果表明:(1)全国和各区域雾霾污染月均值变化轨迹呈U型,即夏季最低,冬季最高,春季下降,秋季上升。(2)中国城市雾霾污染呈现"北高南低"的态势,即存在空间集聚;(3)中国城市的雾霾污染存在显著的空间正自相关,雾霾污染区域一体化态势明显。(4)中国城市雾霾污染程度逐步下降,城市空气质量好转,城市雾霾污染的差异呈缩小趋势。(5)从全国层面来看,经济增长、公共交通运输强度、第二产业比重对雾霾污染产生显著的正的影响,信息化、绿化水平对雾霾污染产生负的影响。(6)从区域层面看,各种因素对城市雾霾污染的影响有所差异。在此基础上,提出相应的对策措施。
引文
[1]Zhao,X.,Zhang,X.,Xu,X.,Xu,J.,Meng,W.,&Pu,W.,Seasonal and diurnal variations of ambient PM2. 5concentration in urban and rural environments in Beijing[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2009(18).
[2]王振波,方创琳,许光等. 2014年中国城市PM2. 5浓度的时空变化规律[J].地理学报,2015(11).
[3]Wang,Z. B.,&Fang,C. L.,Spatial-temporal characteristics and determinants of PM2. 5in the bohai rim urban agglomeration[J].Chemosphere,2016(148).
[4]Song,Y.,Wang,X.,Maher,B. A.,Li,F.,Xu,C.,&Liu,X.,et al.,The spatial-temporal characteristics and health impacts of ambient fine particulate matter in china[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2016(112).
[5]Peng,J.,Chen,S.,Lü,H.,Liu,Y.,&Wu,J.,Spatiotemporal patterns of remotely sensed PM2. 5concentration in China from 1999to 2011[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment,2016(174).
[6]Wang,S.,Zhou,C.,Wang,Z.,Feng,K.,&Hubacek,K.,The characteristics and drivers of fine particulate matter(PM2. 5)distribution in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2017(142).
[7]Han,R.,Wang,S. X.,Shen,W. H.,et al.,Spatial and temporal variation of haze in china from 1961 to 2012[J]. Journal of Environmental Sciences,2016(8).
[8]Hu,J.,Wang,Y.,Ying,Q.,&Zhang,H.,Spatial and temporal variability of PM2. 5,and PM10,over the north china plain and the Yangtze river delta,china[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2014(1).
[9]Huang,W.,Long,E.,Wang,J.,et al. Characterizing spatial distribution and temporal variation of PM10,and PM2. 5,mass concentrations in an urban area of southwest China[J]. Atmospheric Pollution Research,2015(5).
[10]Nehzat,M.,Winter time PM2. 5And PM10,source apportionment at Sacramento,Caledonia[J]. Journal of the Air&Waste Management Association,1999(9).
[11]Massey,D.,Kulshrestha,A.,Masih,J.,et al.,Seasonal trends of PM10,PM5. 0,PM2. 5&PM1. 0in indoor and outdoor environments of residential homes located in North-Central India[J]. Building and Environment,2012(47).
[12]Gao,L. J.,et al.,Local and long-range transport influences on PM2. 5at a cities-cluster in northern China,During Summer 2008[J]. Particuology,2014(13).
[13]Ferm,M.,Sjoberg,K. Concentrations and emission factors for PM2. 5and PM10from road traffic in Sweden[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2015(119).
[14]马丽梅,张晓.中国雾霾污染的空间效应及经济、能源结构影响[J].中国工业经济,2014(4).
[15]Hao,Y.,&Liu,Y. M.,The influential factors of urban PM2. 5concentrations in china:a spatial econometric analysis[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2015(112).
[16]Ma,Y. R.,Ji,Q.,&Fan,Y.,Spatial linkage analysis of the impact of regional economic activities on PM2. 5pollution in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016(139).
[17]马丽梅,张晓.区域大气污染空间效应及产业结构影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(7).
[18]东童童,李欣,刘乃全.空间视角下工业集聚对雾霾污染的影响-理论与经验研究[J].经济管理,2015(9).
[19]向堃,宋德勇.中国省域PM2. 5污染的空间实证研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015(9).
[20]Xu,B.,Lin,B. Q.,Regional differences of pollution emissions in China:contributing factors and mitigation strategies[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2016(112).
[21]Han,L. J.,Zhou,W. Q.,Li,W. F,et al.,Impact of urbanization level on urban air quality:a case of fine particles(PM2. 5)in Chinese cities[J]. Environmental Pollution,2014(7).
[22]何枫,马栋栋.雾霾与工业化发展的关联研究——中国74个城市的实证研究[J].软科学,2015(6).
[23]马丽梅,刘生龙,张晓.能源结构、交通模式与雾霾污染——基于空间计量模型的研究[J].财贸经济,2016(1).
[24]康雨.贸易开放程度对雾霾的影响分析—基于中国省级面板数据的空间计量研究[J].经济科学,2016(1).
[25]刘修岩,董会敏.出口贸易加重还是缓解中国的空气污染—基于PM2. 5和SO2数据的实证检验[J].财贸研究,2017(1).
[26]Auffhammer,M.,Carson,R. T.,Forecasting the path of China’s CO2emissions using province-level information[J]. J. Environ.Econ. Manag,2008(3).
[27]徐维祥,舒季君,唐根年.中国工业化、信息化、城镇化和农业现代化协调发展的时空格局与动态演进[J].经济学动态,2015(1).
[28]郭国庆,牛海鹏.信息化能否降低环境污染?[J].黑龙江社会科学,2015(2).
[29]杜雯翠.信息化能否降低城市环境污染?——来自281个城市的经验证据[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2016(2).
[30]薛文博,付飞,王金南等.中国PM2. 5跨区域传输特征数值模拟研究[J]中国环境科学,2014(6).
[31]杨肃昌,马素琳.城市经济增长对空气质置的影响[J].城市问题,2015(12).
[32]邵帅,李欣,曹建华,杨莉莉.中国雾霾污染治理的经济政策选择——基于空间溢出效应的视角[J].经济研究,2016(9).
[33]刘志勇,王琪延.经济増长、新型城镇化与空气质量关系研究——基于省会城市和直辖市的面板数据[J].调研世界,2016(9).
[34]杨冕,王银.长江经济带PM2. 5时空特征及影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017(1).
[35]He,J.,China’s industrial SO2emissions and its economic determinants:EKC's reduced vs. structural model and the role of international trade[J]. Environ. Dev. Econ. 2009(2).
[36]Moran P A. Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena[J].Bimetrika,1950(1-2).
[37]Anselin,L. The Moranscatter plot as an ESDA tool to assess local instability in spatial association[M]. London,UK:Taylor and Francis,1996.
[38]Anselin,L.,Under the hood issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models[J]. Agric. Econ. 2002(3).
[39]Anselin,L.,Spatial econometrics:methods and models[M]. Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1988.
[40]Anselin Luc. Exploring spatial data with Geo Da:a workbook[EB/OL]. http://geodacenter. asu. edu/system/files/geodaworkbook.pdf,2005.
[41]Burkhauser.,Rovba.,Income inequality in the 1990s:comparing the United States,Grenat Britain and Germany[J]. The Japanese Journal of Social Security Policy,2005(1).
[42]Jenkins,S. P.,Van Kerm,P.,Accounting for income distribution trends:a density function de-composition Approach[J]. Journal of Economic Inequality,2005(1).
[43]施祖麟,黄治华.基于核密度估计法的中国省区经济增长动态分析[J].经济经讳,2009(4).
[44]王惠,卞艺杰,王树乔.出口贸易、工业碳排放效率动态演进与空间溢出[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016(1).
[45]何江,张馨之.中国省区收入分布演进的空间—时间分析[J].南方经济,2006(12).
[46]刘华军,杜广杰.中国城市大气污染的空间格局与分布动态演进—基于161个城市AQI及6种分项污染物的实证[J].经济地理,2016(10).
[47]刘华军,孙亚男,陈明华.雾霾污染的城市间动态关联及其成因研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017(3).
(1)已绘制了2014、2015年PM2. 5和PM10的局域集聚图,如有需要,可向作者索取。
[2]王振波,方创琳,许光等. 2014年中国城市PM2. 5浓度的时空变化规律[J].地理学报,2015(11).
[3]Wang,Z. B.,&Fang,C. L.,Spatial-temporal characteristics and determinants of PM2. 5in the bohai rim urban agglomeration[J].Chemosphere,2016(148).
[4]Song,Y.,Wang,X.,Maher,B. A.,Li,F.,Xu,C.,&Liu,X.,et al.,The spatial-temporal characteristics and health impacts of ambient fine particulate matter in china[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2016(112).
[5]Peng,J.,Chen,S.,Lü,H.,Liu,Y.,&Wu,J.,Spatiotemporal patterns of remotely sensed PM2. 5concentration in China from 1999to 2011[J]. Remote Sensing of Environment,2016(174).
[6]Wang,S.,Zhou,C.,Wang,Z.,Feng,K.,&Hubacek,K.,The characteristics and drivers of fine particulate matter(PM2. 5)distribution in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2017(142).
[7]Han,R.,Wang,S. X.,Shen,W. H.,et al.,Spatial and temporal variation of haze in china from 1961 to 2012[J]. Journal of Environmental Sciences,2016(8).
[8]Hu,J.,Wang,Y.,Ying,Q.,&Zhang,H.,Spatial and temporal variability of PM2. 5,and PM10,over the north china plain and the Yangtze river delta,china[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2014(1).
[9]Huang,W.,Long,E.,Wang,J.,et al. Characterizing spatial distribution and temporal variation of PM10,and PM2. 5,mass concentrations in an urban area of southwest China[J]. Atmospheric Pollution Research,2015(5).
[10]Nehzat,M.,Winter time PM2. 5And PM10,source apportionment at Sacramento,Caledonia[J]. Journal of the Air&Waste Management Association,1999(9).
[11]Massey,D.,Kulshrestha,A.,Masih,J.,et al.,Seasonal trends of PM10,PM5. 0,PM2. 5&PM1. 0in indoor and outdoor environments of residential homes located in North-Central India[J]. Building and Environment,2012(47).
[12]Gao,L. J.,et al.,Local and long-range transport influences on PM2. 5at a cities-cluster in northern China,During Summer 2008[J]. Particuology,2014(13).
[13]Ferm,M.,Sjoberg,K. Concentrations and emission factors for PM2. 5and PM10from road traffic in Sweden[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2015(119).
[14]马丽梅,张晓.中国雾霾污染的空间效应及经济、能源结构影响[J].中国工业经济,2014(4).
[15]Hao,Y.,&Liu,Y. M.,The influential factors of urban PM2. 5concentrations in china:a spatial econometric analysis[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2015(112).
[16]Ma,Y. R.,Ji,Q.,&Fan,Y.,Spatial linkage analysis of the impact of regional economic activities on PM2. 5pollution in China[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016(139).
[17]马丽梅,张晓.区域大气污染空间效应及产业结构影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(7).
[18]东童童,李欣,刘乃全.空间视角下工业集聚对雾霾污染的影响-理论与经验研究[J].经济管理,2015(9).
[19]向堃,宋德勇.中国省域PM2. 5污染的空间实证研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015(9).
[20]Xu,B.,Lin,B. Q.,Regional differences of pollution emissions in China:contributing factors and mitigation strategies[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production,2016(112).
[21]Han,L. J.,Zhou,W. Q.,Li,W. F,et al.,Impact of urbanization level on urban air quality:a case of fine particles(PM2. 5)in Chinese cities[J]. Environmental Pollution,2014(7).
[22]何枫,马栋栋.雾霾与工业化发展的关联研究——中国74个城市的实证研究[J].软科学,2015(6).
[23]马丽梅,刘生龙,张晓.能源结构、交通模式与雾霾污染——基于空间计量模型的研究[J].财贸经济,2016(1).
[24]康雨.贸易开放程度对雾霾的影响分析—基于中国省级面板数据的空间计量研究[J].经济科学,2016(1).
[25]刘修岩,董会敏.出口贸易加重还是缓解中国的空气污染—基于PM2. 5和SO2数据的实证检验[J].财贸研究,2017(1).
[26]Auffhammer,M.,Carson,R. T.,Forecasting the path of China’s CO2emissions using province-level information[J]. J. Environ.Econ. Manag,2008(3).
[27]徐维祥,舒季君,唐根年.中国工业化、信息化、城镇化和农业现代化协调发展的时空格局与动态演进[J].经济学动态,2015(1).
[28]郭国庆,牛海鹏.信息化能否降低环境污染?[J].黑龙江社会科学,2015(2).
[29]杜雯翠.信息化能否降低城市环境污染?——来自281个城市的经验证据[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2016(2).
[30]薛文博,付飞,王金南等.中国PM2. 5跨区域传输特征数值模拟研究[J]中国环境科学,2014(6).
[31]杨肃昌,马素琳.城市经济增长对空气质置的影响[J].城市问题,2015(12).
[32]邵帅,李欣,曹建华,杨莉莉.中国雾霾污染治理的经济政策选择——基于空间溢出效应的视角[J].经济研究,2016(9).
[33]刘志勇,王琪延.经济増长、新型城镇化与空气质量关系研究——基于省会城市和直辖市的面板数据[J].调研世界,2016(9).
[34]杨冕,王银.长江经济带PM2. 5时空特征及影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017(1).
[35]He,J.,China’s industrial SO2emissions and its economic determinants:EKC's reduced vs. structural model and the role of international trade[J]. Environ. Dev. Econ. 2009(2).
[36]Moran P A. Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena[J].Bimetrika,1950(1-2).
[37]Anselin,L. The Moranscatter plot as an ESDA tool to assess local instability in spatial association[M]. London,UK:Taylor and Francis,1996.
[38]Anselin,L.,Under the hood issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models[J]. Agric. Econ. 2002(3).
[39]Anselin,L.,Spatial econometrics:methods and models[M]. Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1988.
[40]Anselin Luc. Exploring spatial data with Geo Da:a workbook[EB/OL]. http://geodacenter. asu. edu/system/files/geodaworkbook.pdf,2005.
[41]Burkhauser.,Rovba.,Income inequality in the 1990s:comparing the United States,Grenat Britain and Germany[J]. The Japanese Journal of Social Security Policy,2005(1).
[42]Jenkins,S. P.,Van Kerm,P.,Accounting for income distribution trends:a density function de-composition Approach[J]. Journal of Economic Inequality,2005(1).
[43]施祖麟,黄治华.基于核密度估计法的中国省区经济增长动态分析[J].经济经讳,2009(4).
[44]王惠,卞艺杰,王树乔.出口贸易、工业碳排放效率动态演进与空间溢出[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016(1).
[45]何江,张馨之.中国省区收入分布演进的空间—时间分析[J].南方经济,2006(12).
[46]刘华军,杜广杰.中国城市大气污染的空间格局与分布动态演进—基于161个城市AQI及6种分项污染物的实证[J].经济地理,2016(10).
[47]刘华军,孙亚男,陈明华.雾霾污染的城市间动态关联及其成因研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017(3).
(1)已绘制了2014、2015年PM2. 5和PM10的局域集聚图,如有需要,可向作者索取。