城镇化对绿色发展绩效的门槛效应研究——以大西北、黄河中游两大经济区城市为例
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摘要
探究城镇化对生态脆弱、环境敏感的大西北和黄河中游两大综合经济区绿色发展绩效的影响,对于实现全国绿色发展战略目标有着决定性意义。文中创新性地选取大西北和黄河中游经济区62个地级及以上城市2003-2016年数据,运用全局非径向方向性距离函数构建绿色发展绩效指数(GDPI),深刻揭示了该地区绿色发展状况。进一步地,为克服已有文献使用线性模型研究的局限性,文中选取城镇化率作为门槛变量,运用基于拓展的STIRPAT模型的面板门槛回归,更为准确地刻画了城镇化与绿色发展绩效之间的非线性关系。发现以城镇化率77.3%与93.4%为门槛值,城镇化对绿色发展绩效的影响分为前期消极抑制、中期微弱促进、后期积极促进三个阶段。
Exploring the impact of urbanization on green development performance of the northwest economic region and the middle reaches of Yellow River economic region, where ecological environment is fragile, is decisive for achieving national green development. Data of 62 cities in the northwest economic region and the middle reaches of Yellow River economic region in 2003-2016 were applied and the global non-radial directional distance function was used to calculate the green development performance index(GDPI), and reveal the state of green development in the region. Further, in order to overcome the limitations of linear models, the panel threshold regression based on the extended STIRPAT model was used to describe the nonlinear relationship between urbanization and green development performance, with the urbanization rate as the threshold variable. There are two structure change points, 77.3% and 93.4% respectively. Before the first threshold point, the coefficient is negative. In the second stage, the coefficient is positive. After crossing the second threshold point, the positive effect is further enhanced.
Exploring the impact of urbanization on green development performance of the northwest economic region and the middle reaches of Yellow River economic region, where ecological environment is fragile, is decisive for achieving national green development. Data of 62 cities in the northwest economic region and the middle reaches of Yellow River economic region in 2003-2016 were applied and the global non-radial directional distance function was used to calculate the green development performance index(GDPI), and reveal the state of green development in the region. Further, in order to overcome the limitations of linear models, the panel threshold regression based on the extended STIRPAT model was used to describe the nonlinear relationship between urbanization and green development performance, with the urbanization rate as the threshold variable. There are two structure change points, 77.3% and 93.4% respectively. Before the first threshold point, the coefficient is negative. In the second stage, the coefficient is positive. After crossing the second threshold point, the positive effect is further enhanced.
引文
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[15] 金巍,章恒全,王惠,等.城镇化、水资源消耗的动态演进与门槛效应[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2018,20(2):42-50.
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[18] Ehrlich P R,Holdren J P.Impact of population growth[J].Science,1971,171:1212-1217.
[19] Dietz T,Rosa E A.Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,1997,94(1):175-179.
[20] Song C,Liu Q,Gu S,et al.The impact of China's urbanization on economic growth and pollutant emissions:An empirical study based on input-output analysis[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,198:1289-1301.
[21] 聂飞,刘海云.基于城镇化门槛模型的中国OFDI的碳排放效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(9):123-131.
[22] 伍先福,杨永德.生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚提升了城镇化水平吗[J].财经科学,2016(11):79-90.
[23] 张小雷,雷军,段祖亮,等.近20年来新疆人文与经济地理学发展与展望[J].经济地理,2018,38(4):9-18.
(1)篇幅所限,2003-2016年62个城市GDPI测算结果省略,如有需要,可同作者索要。
[2] 黄茂兴,叶琪.马克思主义绿色发展观与当代中国的绿色发展-兼评环境与发展不相容论[J].经济研究,2017,52(6):17-30.
[3] 戴铁军,王婉君,刘瑞.中国社会经济系统资源环境压力的时空差异[J].资源科学,2017,39(10):1942-1955.
[4] 金巍,章恒全,张洪波,等.城镇化进程中人口结构变动对用水量的影响[J].资源科学,2018,40(4):784-796.
[5] Ji X,Chen B.Assessing the energy-saving effect of urbanization in China based on stochastic impacts by regression on population,affluence and technology (STIRPAT) model[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2015,24(2):206-209.
[6] 秦腾,章恒全,佟金萍,等.城镇化进程中用水量增长的门槛效应与动态作用机制分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(5):45-53.
[7] Li K,Song M L.Green development performance in China:A metafrontier non-radial approach[J].Sustainability,2016,3(8):219-239.
[8] Feng C,Wang M,Liu G C,et al.Green development performance and its influencing factors:A global perspective[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,144:323-333.
[9] Lin B Q,Benjamin N I.Green development determinants in China:A non-radial quantile outlook[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,162:764-775.
[10] 王兵,唐文狮,吴延瑞,等.城镇化提高中国绿色发展效率了吗?[J].经济评论,2014(4):38-49,107.
[11] 郑强.城镇化对绿色全要素生产率的影响-基于公共支出门槛效应的分析[J].城市问题,2018(3):48-56.
[12] 于伟,张鹏.城市化进程、空间溢出与绿色经济效率增长-基于2002-2012年省域单元的空间计量研究[J].经济问题探索,2016(1):77-82.
[13] 郑丽琳,汪雷,戴炜.安徽省绿色经济增长时空变化及影响因素研究[J].华东经济管理,2018,32(1):18-26.
[14] 李欣,潘跃.中国城市化与能源消费的非线性关系研究-基于省际面板数据的门槛模型分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(S1):1-5.
[15] 金巍,章恒全,王惠,等.城镇化、水资源消耗的动态演进与门槛效应[J].北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2018,20(2):42-50.
[16] Zhang N,Zhou P,Kung C C.Total-factor carbon emission performance of the Chinese transportation industry:A bootstrapped non-radial Malmquist index analysis[J].Renewable& Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,41:584-593.
[17] Wang Z,Feng C.A performance evaluation of the energy,environmental,and economic efficiency and productivity in China:An application of global data envelopment analysis[J].Applied Energy,2015,147:617-626.
[18] Ehrlich P R,Holdren J P.Impact of population growth[J].Science,1971,171:1212-1217.
[19] Dietz T,Rosa E A.Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,1997,94(1):175-179.
[20] Song C,Liu Q,Gu S,et al.The impact of China's urbanization on economic growth and pollutant emissions:An empirical study based on input-output analysis[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,198:1289-1301.
[21] 聂飞,刘海云.基于城镇化门槛模型的中国OFDI的碳排放效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(9):123-131.
[22] 伍先福,杨永德.生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚提升了城镇化水平吗[J].财经科学,2016(11):79-90.
[23] 张小雷,雷军,段祖亮,等.近20年来新疆人文与经济地理学发展与展望[J].经济地理,2018,38(4):9-18.
(1)篇幅所限,2003-2016年62个城市GDPI测算结果省略,如有需要,可同作者索要。