中俄天然气合作问题研究
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摘要
中国是天然气消费大国,天然气产量远远满足不了国内消费市场的需要,而俄罗斯则是天然气生产大国,中俄两国的经济发展具有互补性。基于历史数据,对中俄两国经济发展趋势、俄罗斯对中国天然气的出口趋势进行了比较研究,从俄罗斯天然气储量、产量和消费量预测;从俄罗斯远东地区的综合开发以及中国天然气储量、产量、消费量和进口量预测等方面,阐述了中俄天然气合作的必要性和可行性。中国政府正在稳步推进国内能源供给侧改革,积极建立能源多样化供应体系;中俄两国天然气领域虽然面临风险和不确定性,但合作共赢仍然是两国能源发展的总趋势。
China is a huge natural gas consumer meanwhile domestic natural gas production can't meet the needs of consumption. At the same time,Russia is the big natural gas producer. The economic development of both Russia and China is complementary. Based on historical data and gas companies' energy reports,this paper reasonably judges the Russian natural gas export trend to China. According to China and Russia economic development trends,we explain the necessity and feasibility of Sino-Russian natural gas cooperation,put forward the goal of Sino-Russian energy cooperation,and provide some solutions for realizing cross-regional cooperation between the two countries. Russia's natural gas reserves,production and consumption forecasts was regarded with the accent on comprehensive development of the Russian far east. Nevertheless,Chinese government is steadily advancing the domestic energy supply reform and actively developing energy supply system diversification. It is concluded that"win-win"cooperation is still the general trend of energy development for both countries although China and Russia are facing risks and uncertainties in the natural gas sector.
China is a huge natural gas consumer meanwhile domestic natural gas production can't meet the needs of consumption. At the same time,Russia is the big natural gas producer. The economic development of both Russia and China is complementary. Based on historical data and gas companies' energy reports,this paper reasonably judges the Russian natural gas export trend to China. According to China and Russia economic development trends,we explain the necessity and feasibility of Sino-Russian natural gas cooperation,put forward the goal of Sino-Russian energy cooperation,and provide some solutions for realizing cross-regional cooperation between the two countries. Russia's natural gas reserves,production and consumption forecasts was regarded with the accent on comprehensive development of the Russian far east. Nevertheless,Chinese government is steadily advancing the domestic energy supply reform and actively developing energy supply system diversification. It is concluded that"win-win"cooperation is still the general trend of energy development for both countries although China and Russia are facing risks and uncertainties in the natural gas sector.
引文
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[3]国际货币基金组织.国际货币基金组织2017年世界经济和金融调查[EB/OL].(2017-01-05).[2018-01-05].http://www. imf. org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/02/weodata/index.aspx.International Monetary Fund. IMF World Economic and Financial Investigation 2017[EB/OL].(2017-01-05).[2018-01-05]. http://www. imf. org/external/pubs/f/weo/2017/02/weodata/index. aspx.
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[6]ExxonM obil. ExxonM obi公司发布2017版2040年世界能源展望[J].程薇,译.石油炼制与化工,2017,48(3):16.ExxonM obil,ExxonM obil Releases 2017 Edition of the 2040World Energy Outlook[J]. Cheng Wei,trans. Petroleum Processing and Petrochemicals,2017,48(3):16.
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[10]Yeo L H. The Inter-regional Dimension of EU-Asia Relations:EU-ASEN and the Asia-Europe Meeting(ASEM)Process[J].European Studies:A Journal of European Culture,History and Politics,2007,25(25):173-191.
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[12]Koldunova E. Next-Time at ASEM:Theory and Practice of Interregional Relations:Russia, Take Note[J].International Affairs,Special Issue:Russia and ASEAN,2010,74(1):23-28.
[13]Волошин В. И.,Герасимов И. С.. Россия на иностранных рынках природного газа [J ]. Российский Внешне-экономический журнал,2014,11 ( 11) : 27-41.Voloshin V I,Gerasimov I S. Russia on the Foreign Natural Gas Markets[J]. Russian Foreign Economic Journal,2014,11(11):27-41.
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[15]Попов А. А.. Интеграция хозяйствующих субъектов в рыночной экономике: дис. канд. экон [D]. наук.Воронеж,Воронежский Государственный Университет,2005.Popov A A. Integration of Economic Entities in the Market Economy[D]. Voronezh:Voronezh State University,2005.
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[17]Андреева Н. В.. Перспективы экономической интеграции Китая и АСЕАН[М],ИМЭМОРАН,2006: 53.Andreeva N V. Perspectives of the Economic Integration of China and ASEAN Countries[M]. Moscow:Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations,2006:53.
[18]Министерство энергетики Российской Федерации. Общая схема развития газовой промышленности России на период до 2030 года[R/OL].( 2011-06-06) .[2018-01-09].http: / / minenergo.gov.ru / .Ministry of Energy of Russian Federation. General Scheme of the Russia Gas Industry till 2030 Year[R/OL].(2011-06-06).[2018-01-09].http://minenergo.gov.ru/.
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[26]单卫国.未来中国天然气市场发展方向[J].国际石油经济,2016,24(2):59-62.Shan Weiguo. China’s Natural Gas Market Development Direction in the Future[J]. International Petroleum Economics,2016,24(2):59-62.
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[28]Lazko E. New Reality of Oil and Gas Sector[R]. Moscow:“Deloitte”:Oil and Gas Vertical,2014.
[29]US Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2016[EB/OL].[2018-01-05]. http://www. eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/.
[30]Воскресенский А. Д.,Мировое комплексное регионоведение,под редакцией Воскресенского А. Д. [M]. Москва,ИнфраМ,2015: 416.Voskresenskiy A D. World Complex Region Analysis After Voskresensliy A D Reduction[M]. Moscow:Infra-M,2015:416.
[31]Kliukov V A,Takarev A N,Liang Xueqiu. Value Chain Analysis:A Case Study of Sino-Russian Oil and Gas Cooperation[J]. Siberian Studies,2017,44(4):14-21.
[32] Брагина З. В., Киселев И. К., Морозов И. А..Социально - экономическое развитие региона в контексте ко эволюции. / / журнал Социальные и гуманита-рные знания,2016,2 ( 4) : 15-25.Bragina Z V,Kiselev I K,Morozov I A. Social-economic Region Development on the Context of Coevolution [J].Social and Humanities Knowledge,2016,2 ( 4) : 15-25.