我国能源环境与经济可持续发展
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摘要
能源可持续利用、环境保护与我国经济可持续发展问题的研究已成为经济学界的一个重要课题。本文正是基于此,以可持续发展为主线,借助于经济增长理论、现代计量经济学和统计分析方法,从理论、模型及经验研究多角度,探讨了以下问题：能源、环境与经济增长之间的相互关系,现行经济增长方式下我国生态承载状况,以及旨在促进经济社会可持续发展的节能减排政策的实施效果,并以此为依据来分析我国能源开发利用、环境保护以及经济可持续发展战略。
首先,对经济增长理论、可持续发展理论和生态承载力理论进行了回顾与评述,并进一步对能源、环境与经济增长的关系以及生态承载力的国内外新近研究成果进行综述,以期为本文的深入研究研究提供理论背景和分析基础。
近年来众多研究文献分析了能源约束下或者环境约束下的经济可持续增长问题,但是同时将能源、环境与经济增长纳入到一个统一分析框架下的文献仍不多见,并且很少有学者将能源与环境双重约束下经济可持续增长模型的社会计划均衡和分权经济均衡最优解进行比较分析。基于此,在前人的研究成果之上,本文将能源、环境与经济增长纳入到一个统一分析框架下,通过比较分析三个带有能源与环境约束的经济增长模型(新古典增长模型、基于人力资本积累的内生增长模型和基于研发的内生增长模型),系统研究了能源可持续利用、环境污染与治理、物资资本积累、人力资本开发、内生技术进步与经济可持续发展的内在关系,研究发现R&D和人力资本投资对经济可持续发展有着关键作用。此外,通过求解模型的市场均衡,对社会计划均衡和分权经济均衡最优解的政策工具水平进行比较,证明了政府对经济的干预是必要的,可以引导分权经济达到社会性最优的可持续增长状态。
在上述理论分析的基础上,本文进一步利用1983-2007年时序数据研究发现,我国经济增长、能源消费与环境污染之间存在协整关系,这说明在我国经济的快速发展过程中,不可避免的伴随着能源大量消耗、污染物排放问题。此外,本文利用1985-2007年我国28个省份的面板数据,建立面板数据模型,选择不同的变量来表征环境污染,并比较了相应参数估计结果的差异。结合其它分析结果,选择工业废气排放量作为环境污染的代表性变量,根据经济增长核算理论,估算出物质资本、能源对中国改革开放以来经济增长的贡献率分别为41.16%、20.75%,环境污染导致的代价占GDP的22.05%。这说明,我国的经济增长主要依靠要素投入,属于粗放型增长,经济的快速增长是以严重的环境污染为代价的。
生态承载力作为可持续发展的支撑理论已得到广泛应用。本文从环境纳污能力、资源供给能力以及人类支持能力三个方面构建我国生态承载力评价指标体系,利用综合集成赋权法确定了指标权重,采用状态空间法对2003-2008年中国及各地区的生态承载力进行评价。研究发现,我国生态承载状况处于超载状态,人类支持能力发展较快,环境纳污能力和资源供给能力发展缓慢,其中资源供给能力低于全国生态承载水平。资源约束、生态环境的恶化与承载能力的弱化,越来越成为制约经济社会发展的瓶颈。
为此,中国提出进一步加强节能减排工作。本文从能源消耗强度与消费结构、水资源利用与节约、污染物排放量、污染物治理与利用以及环境质量五个方面构建了节能减排指标体系,首先利用因子分析法对2006-2007年我国各地区节能减排的实施效果与影响因素进行分析,然后采用功效法我国及各地区节能减排实现程度进行了评价与比较。研究发现,我国节能减排进程加快,各方面取得不断进步,但总体实现程度较低,同时存在着地区间发展不平衡的特点。从分目标来看,我国节能减排表现为污染物治理与利用、水资源节约与利用类指标好于环境质量、能源消耗类指标的特征。
结合我国生态承载状况的分析结果可知,与2003-2005年相比,2006年以来节能减排政策的实施使得我国生态承载力得到了改善,但是主要源于人类支持能力的提高,而资源承载能力和环境纳污能力提则高缓慢。这说明,在有限的时期内节能减排政策的实施对我国经济可持续发展的促进作用并不明显。
The research on the sustainable utilization of resource, environmental protection and the sustainable development problem of China has already become an important subject of the economic educational circles. Just based on it, the paper take the sustainable development as the thread, by the modern economic growth theory and the econometric and statistical methods, study the follwing themes from the angles of theory, model and experience. They are such as the relation between energy, environment and the economic growth, the ecological burden state under the current economic growth style, and the implementing effect of the enery-conservation and pollutant-reduction policy on the economic and social sustainable development. According to this, we analyze the development strategies of the energy development and utilization, envoirmental protection and the economic sustainable development.
Firstly, the paper reviews and summarizes the theory on the economic gowth, sustainable development or ecological carrying capacity. Then we summarize and evaluate the recently domestic and international research results on the economic gowth, sustainable development or ecological carrying capacity, so as to supply the theory background and analysis foundation to the following deep research.
In recent years numerous literatures have each analyzed the economical sustainable development under the restrain of energy or environment. Not only the literature that brings energy, environment, and economic growth into the same analysis frame has been still rare, but also few scholars have made the comparative analysis on the society-planned equilibrium and the market-economy equilibrium of the economical sustainability progress model under the double restrain of energy and environment. So, we bring the energy and environment into a frame of analyzing in unison, through the comparative analysis on the three economical sustainability models, such as the new and classical growth model, the endogenous one based on human resource capital accumulation, and the endogenous one based on R&D, to study systematically the inherent relation between on the sustainable utilization of energy, the environmental pollution and administration, the capital accumulation of goods and materials, the capital development of manpower, the endogenous technological progress and the economic sustainable development. We conclude that the R&D and the investment of manpower capital have key effect on economic sustainable development. Besides, we make the comparative analysis on the policy tools belong to the society-planned equilibrium and the market-economy equilibrium of the economical sustainability growth model, and analyze the realistic meaning of tools. Through the analysis described above we prove that it is necessary for the government to intervene and control economic in order to adjust the fraction economy to reach the social optimum sustainable growth state.
On the basis of the former theory analysis, we make full use of the time-series data from 1983 to 2007 of China and conclude that there is the co-integration relation between the economic growth, energy-consuming and environmental pollution in China. Then we make the panel data model to calculate the contribution rate of the material capital, energy consumption to the economic progress since the reform and opening-up is respectively 41.16% and 20.75%, while the cost caused by the environment pollution is 22.05 percent of GDP. It indicates that the economic growth of our country mainly depends on the factor input, which is the extensive one, and the economic fast growth is taking serious environmental pollution as cost.
The theory of ecological carrying capacity is the support of the sustainable development theory, which has been extensively applied. We make the evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity from the environment contain-dirty ability, resource-supply ability and mankind-support ability, decide every index weight through the integrated method that is composed of the qualitative and quantitative methods of weight distribution, and make the space law of the state to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity of China and its different provinces from 2003 to 2008. We conclude that the ecological carrying capacity of our country is overburdened; the mankind-support ability develops fast while the environment contain-dirty ability and resource-supply ability develops slowly, in which the resource-supply ability is below the the national ecology carrying level. Besides, the restraint of resource, deterioration of ecological environment and the reduction of bearing capacity have more and more been the bottleneck restricting socio-economic development.
To resolve the above problems, the Chinese government proposed further strengthening energy-conservation and pollutant-reduction. So we make the index system of energy-conservation and pollutant-reduction from the consumption intensity and structure of energy, the utilization and saving of water resources, disposal of pollutants, the cure and comprehensive utilization of pollutants and environmental quality. Then we decide every index weight through the integrated method that is composed of the qualitative and quantitative methods of weight distribution. We evaluate the realization degree of energy-conservation and pollutant-reduction from 2003 to 2008 with making full use of the factor analysis method and the efficiency coefficient method, and finally compares the conclusion each other from 2003 to 2004, through both the methods. On the basis we have a correct and scientific evaluation on it. We find that the overall realization degree of energy-conservation and pollutant-reduction is still low although the process has been rapidly improved; the different fields have made progress constantly. Meanwhile, there is the characteristic of the disparate development among the areas. According to the section goal, it exists that the realization degree of indexes such as the cure and comprehensive utilization of pollutants, the utilization and saving of water resources is better than that of the consumption intensity and structure of energy, environmental quality.
Combing with the Chapter 4th, compared with the process of 2003-2005, the implementation of the policy of energy-conservation and pollutant-reduction since 2006 has made the ecologyical capacity of China improved, but it relies in mainly the progresss on the mankind-support ability as the same time the environment contain-dirty ability, resource-supply ability has been more slowly improved. It indicates that the effect on the economic sustainable development by the policy has not been obvious.
首先,对经济增长理论、可持续发展理论和生态承载力理论进行了回顾与评述,并进一步对能源、环境与经济增长的关系以及生态承载力的国内外新近研究成果进行综述,以期为本文的深入研究研究提供理论背景和分析基础。
近年来众多研究文献分析了能源约束下或者环境约束下的经济可持续增长问题,但是同时将能源、环境与经济增长纳入到一个统一分析框架下的文献仍不多见,并且很少有学者将能源与环境双重约束下经济可持续增长模型的社会计划均衡和分权经济均衡最优解进行比较分析。基于此,在前人的研究成果之上,本文将能源、环境与经济增长纳入到一个统一分析框架下,通过比较分析三个带有能源与环境约束的经济增长模型(新古典增长模型、基于人力资本积累的内生增长模型和基于研发的内生增长模型),系统研究了能源可持续利用、环境污染与治理、物资资本积累、人力资本开发、内生技术进步与经济可持续发展的内在关系,研究发现R&D和人力资本投资对经济可持续发展有着关键作用。此外,通过求解模型的市场均衡,对社会计划均衡和分权经济均衡最优解的政策工具水平进行比较,证明了政府对经济的干预是必要的,可以引导分权经济达到社会性最优的可持续增长状态。
在上述理论分析的基础上,本文进一步利用1983-2007年时序数据研究发现,我国经济增长、能源消费与环境污染之间存在协整关系,这说明在我国经济的快速发展过程中,不可避免的伴随着能源大量消耗、污染物排放问题。此外,本文利用1985-2007年我国28个省份的面板数据,建立面板数据模型,选择不同的变量来表征环境污染,并比较了相应参数估计结果的差异。结合其它分析结果,选择工业废气排放量作为环境污染的代表性变量,根据经济增长核算理论,估算出物质资本、能源对中国改革开放以来经济增长的贡献率分别为41.16%、20.75%,环境污染导致的代价占GDP的22.05%。这说明,我国的经济增长主要依靠要素投入,属于粗放型增长,经济的快速增长是以严重的环境污染为代价的。
生态承载力作为可持续发展的支撑理论已得到广泛应用。本文从环境纳污能力、资源供给能力以及人类支持能力三个方面构建我国生态承载力评价指标体系,利用综合集成赋权法确定了指标权重,采用状态空间法对2003-2008年中国及各地区的生态承载力进行评价。研究发现,我国生态承载状况处于超载状态,人类支持能力发展较快,环境纳污能力和资源供给能力发展缓慢,其中资源供给能力低于全国生态承载水平。资源约束、生态环境的恶化与承载能力的弱化,越来越成为制约经济社会发展的瓶颈。
为此,中国提出进一步加强节能减排工作。本文从能源消耗强度与消费结构、水资源利用与节约、污染物排放量、污染物治理与利用以及环境质量五个方面构建了节能减排指标体系,首先利用因子分析法对2006-2007年我国各地区节能减排的实施效果与影响因素进行分析,然后采用功效法我国及各地区节能减排实现程度进行了评价与比较。研究发现,我国节能减排进程加快,各方面取得不断进步,但总体实现程度较低,同时存在着地区间发展不平衡的特点。从分目标来看,我国节能减排表现为污染物治理与利用、水资源节约与利用类指标好于环境质量、能源消耗类指标的特征。
结合我国生态承载状况的分析结果可知,与2003-2005年相比,2006年以来节能减排政策的实施使得我国生态承载力得到了改善,但是主要源于人类支持能力的提高,而资源承载能力和环境纳污能力提则高缓慢。这说明,在有限的时期内节能减排政策的实施对我国经济可持续发展的促进作用并不明显。
The research on the sustainable utilization of resource, environmental protection and the sustainable development problem of China has already become an important subject of the economic educational circles. Just based on it, the paper take the sustainable development as the thread, by the modern economic growth theory and the econometric and statistical methods, study the follwing themes from the angles of theory, model and experience. They are such as the relation between energy, environment and the economic growth, the ecological burden state under the current economic growth style, and the implementing effect of the enery-conservation and pollutant-reduction policy on the economic and social sustainable development. According to this, we analyze the development strategies of the energy development and utilization, envoirmental protection and the economic sustainable development.
Firstly, the paper reviews and summarizes the theory on the economic gowth, sustainable development or ecological carrying capacity. Then we summarize and evaluate the recently domestic and international research results on the economic gowth, sustainable development or ecological carrying capacity, so as to supply the theory background and analysis foundation to the following deep research.
In recent years numerous literatures have each analyzed the economical sustainable development under the restrain of energy or environment. Not only the literature that brings energy, environment, and economic growth into the same analysis frame has been still rare, but also few scholars have made the comparative analysis on the society-planned equilibrium and the market-economy equilibrium of the economical sustainability progress model under the double restrain of energy and environment. So, we bring the energy and environment into a frame of analyzing in unison, through the comparative analysis on the three economical sustainability models, such as the new and classical growth model, the endogenous one based on human resource capital accumulation, and the endogenous one based on R&D, to study systematically the inherent relation between on the sustainable utilization of energy, the environmental pollution and administration, the capital accumulation of goods and materials, the capital development of manpower, the endogenous technological progress and the economic sustainable development. We conclude that the R&D and the investment of manpower capital have key effect on economic sustainable development. Besides, we make the comparative analysis on the policy tools belong to the society-planned equilibrium and the market-economy equilibrium of the economical sustainability growth model, and analyze the realistic meaning of tools. Through the analysis described above we prove that it is necessary for the government to intervene and control economic in order to adjust the fraction economy to reach the social optimum sustainable growth state.
On the basis of the former theory analysis, we make full use of the time-series data from 1983 to 2007 of China and conclude that there is the co-integration relation between the economic growth, energy-consuming and environmental pollution in China. Then we make the panel data model to calculate the contribution rate of the material capital, energy consumption to the economic progress since the reform and opening-up is respectively 41.16% and 20.75%, while the cost caused by the environment pollution is 22.05 percent of GDP. It indicates that the economic growth of our country mainly depends on the factor input, which is the extensive one, and the economic fast growth is taking serious environmental pollution as cost.
The theory of ecological carrying capacity is the support of the sustainable development theory, which has been extensively applied. We make the evaluation index system of ecological carrying capacity from the environment contain-dirty ability, resource-supply ability and mankind-support ability, decide every index weight through the integrated method that is composed of the qualitative and quantitative methods of weight distribution, and make the space law of the state to evaluate the ecological carrying capacity of China and its different provinces from 2003 to 2008. We conclude that the ecological carrying capacity of our country is overburdened; the mankind-support ability develops fast while the environment contain-dirty ability and resource-supply ability develops slowly, in which the resource-supply ability is below the the national ecology carrying level. Besides, the restraint of resource, deterioration of ecological environment and the reduction of bearing capacity have more and more been the bottleneck restricting socio-economic development.
To resolve the above problems, the Chinese government proposed further strengthening energy-conservation and pollutant-reduction. So we make the index system of energy-conservation and pollutant-reduction from the consumption intensity and structure of energy, the utilization and saving of water resources, disposal of pollutants, the cure and comprehensive utilization of pollutants and environmental quality. Then we decide every index weight through the integrated method that is composed of the qualitative and quantitative methods of weight distribution. We evaluate the realization degree of energy-conservation and pollutant-reduction from 2003 to 2008 with making full use of the factor analysis method and the efficiency coefficient method, and finally compares the conclusion each other from 2003 to 2004, through both the methods. On the basis we have a correct and scientific evaluation on it. We find that the overall realization degree of energy-conservation and pollutant-reduction is still low although the process has been rapidly improved; the different fields have made progress constantly. Meanwhile, there is the characteristic of the disparate development among the areas. According to the section goal, it exists that the realization degree of indexes such as the cure and comprehensive utilization of pollutants, the utilization and saving of water resources is better than that of the consumption intensity and structure of energy, environmental quality.
Combing with the Chapter 4th, compared with the process of 2003-2005, the implementation of the policy of energy-conservation and pollutant-reduction since 2006 has made the ecologyical capacity of China improved, but it relies in mainly the progresss on the mankind-support ability as the same time the environment contain-dirty ability, resource-supply ability has been more slowly improved. It indicates that the effect on the economic sustainable development by the policy has not been obvious.
引文
1 资料来源：国家统计局.新中国成立60周年经济社会发展成就回顾系列报告之一：光辉的历程,辉煌的篇章.http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjfx/ztfx/qzxzgcl60zn/t20090907_402584869.htm
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25 在早期的经济发展过程中,能源通常是归入资本范畴的,它们并没有单独作为一种要素投入成为经济学家的分析范畴。一方面是因为早期的经济增长主要是依靠劳动力的投入和资本的积累,生产过程中对能源的需求不是很大,另一方面则是因为即使生产过程有对能源的需求,但由于相对于能源的储量来说相对很少,能源的稀缺性没有表现出来,其价格在长期内一般保持不变。随着能源对经济发展的重要性日益凸显,在理论和实证研究中一般将能源从资本剥离出来作为一种单独的要素投入。在理论研究中,能源要进入生产函数,通常的做法是将能源等同于资本要素,它们之间是并列对等的。在实证研究中,如何将能源从物质资本范畴中有效地剥离出来目前为止还没有很好解决(能源消耗量是实物单位,物资资本是货币价值单位),当前通行的做法是资本量的核算沿用以前的方法,能源消耗采用实物量测算(万吨标准煤)。随着各方面研究的发展,该问题最终会得到较为圆满解决的。
26 王德劲.我国人力资本测算及其应用研究[D].西南财经大学,2007.4
27 在关于资本存量的估算研究中,主要有总量层次的资本存量估算、地区和行业层面的估算。一般来说行业层面估算要求细致,而资料又时常难以得到,因而是非常困难的。有关总量物资资本存量的估算成果非常丰富,有关省际物质资本存量的估算成果主要有张军等(2004)、郝枫(2006)和单豪杰(2008)等,一般都采用永续盘存法进行估算。相对而言,单豪杰的研究成果更合理和科学。
31 白仲林.面板数据的计量经济分析[M].南开大学出版社,2008：41-42.
33 杜栋,庞庆华,吴炎.现代综合评价方法与案例精选(第2版)[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2008：11.
34 本节内容引自“王开运等.生态承载力复合系统模型与应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2007.”
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25 在早期的经济发展过程中,能源通常是归入资本范畴的,它们并没有单独作为一种要素投入成为经济学家的分析范畴。一方面是因为早期的经济增长主要是依靠劳动力的投入和资本的积累,生产过程中对能源的需求不是很大,另一方面则是因为即使生产过程有对能源的需求,但由于相对于能源的储量来说相对很少,能源的稀缺性没有表现出来,其价格在长期内一般保持不变。随着能源对经济发展的重要性日益凸显,在理论和实证研究中一般将能源从资本剥离出来作为一种单独的要素投入。在理论研究中,能源要进入生产函数,通常的做法是将能源等同于资本要素,它们之间是并列对等的。在实证研究中,如何将能源从物质资本范畴中有效地剥离出来目前为止还没有很好解决(能源消耗量是实物单位,物资资本是货币价值单位),当前通行的做法是资本量的核算沿用以前的方法,能源消耗采用实物量测算(万吨标准煤)。随着各方面研究的发展,该问题最终会得到较为圆满解决的。
26 王德劲.我国人力资本测算及其应用研究[D].西南财经大学,2007.4
27 在关于资本存量的估算研究中,主要有总量层次的资本存量估算、地区和行业层面的估算。一般来说行业层面估算要求细致,而资料又时常难以得到,因而是非常困难的。有关总量物资资本存量的估算成果非常丰富,有关省际物质资本存量的估算成果主要有张军等(2004)、郝枫(2006)和单豪杰(2008)等,一般都采用永续盘存法进行估算。相对而言,单豪杰的研究成果更合理和科学。
31 白仲林.面板数据的计量经济分析[M].南开大学出版社,2008：41-42.
33 杜栋,庞庆华,吴炎.现代综合评价方法与案例精选(第2版)[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2008：11.
34 本节内容引自“王开运等.生态承载力复合系统模型与应用[M].北京：科学出版社,2007.”
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