基于突发事件风险的供应链利益分配与行为决策研究
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摘要
供应链打破了企业的界限,是一条联结企业之间物流、信息流、资金流的功能网链,供应链管理已经成为企业的“第三利润源”。为了提高供应链的效率,很多企业采用了新战略,比如外包、单一供应源、集中分销等等,这都使得供应链变得更加复杂,更加脆弱,因而极易受到来自外部环境和供应链上各参与主体的突发事件的影响。近年来,频发的突发事件对企业间的供应链造成严重影响,它可能造成供应链中交通设施不可用或延迟使用、原材料供应的暂时中断,还可能造成信息通道的堵塞、需求的巨大波动等从而导致巨大的经济损失。突发事件改变了供应链企业传统的思维模型。面对多变的供应链内外部环境,针对目前在供应链突发事件研究的空白,本文以供应链管理理论为基础,结合应急管理对供应链突发事件应急决策进行了深入的研究,具体包括以下内容：
(1)针对定价推动型和需求拉动型两种典型的供应链分别探讨了突发事件成本风险和需求风险的传递机制。借助博弈论的思想分析了生产商和零售商双方的决策思维和定价策略,分别计算了其利润对成本以及利润对需求的风险弹性,并通过MATLAB对具体的算例进行了模拟,分析了随着原材料成本、需求总量以及需求弹性系数的变化,如何引起供应链利润发生风险波动,阐述了突发事件所引起的风险在供应链中传递的机制。
(2)以资源投入和资源贡献率为基准,将突发事件作为供应链管理中影响供应链节点企业利益分配问题的一个重要因素,提出考虑突发事件风险的供应链利益分配机制,提供了协调供应链的利益分配方法。阐述了影响供应链利益分配的主要因素的,比较了正常情况和考虑突发事件情况下利益分配的不同之处,研究了在正常情况、考虑外部突发事件及考虑内部突发事件情况下,1对1供应链和1对多供应链各自的利益分配类型、方法及模式。
(3)运用博弈论理论深入研究了考虑突发事件风险情况下供应链企业的决策模式和思维方式,进一步考察了供应链企业群体之间的利益分配规律。运用群体博弈理论和方法,按照供应链内各企业主体地位的不同和突发事件来源不同,并通过组合建立了四种考虑突发事件风险的供应链企业博弈模型。将突发事件发生的概率作为变量,研究了不同情况下基于突发事件的供应链群体博弈结果及博弈主体各自的效益分配方案。
(4)针对考虑突发事件风险情况下供应链成员企业间存在矛盾问题,提出以物理-事理-人理(WSR)方法为指导,运用应急管理等管理理论对供应链突成员企业行为进行协调。首先对供应链突发事件“物理”因素进行分析,提出了一系列的针对性措施以减少供应链系统的不稳定性,然后运用供应链应急协调的“事理”对“物理”进行统筹规划,构建供应链突发事件应急协调的机制,以指导供应链系统应急协调的流程。最后,兼顾“人理”因素,通过各种措施加强供应链系统中企业的合作意识,实现“人理”协同。
(5)针对我国造船供应链突发风险问题,分析了造船供应链突发风险的特点及利益分配的机制。并通过对RSZG造船供应链协作商CAD/CAM工作网络系统突发事件,实证分析了突发事件对该供应链的影响。运用内部突发事件1对多供应链群体博弈模型仿真了突发事件发生的概率对供应链中不同地位的企业效益分配的影响,并根据突发事件发生的概率分析了各企业采取的行动。
在经济社会日益复杂的今天,考虑突发事件风险情况下的供应链企业利益分配与行为决策,无论在理论上,还是实践中都具有重要的理论意义和参考价值。
Supply chain has broken the boundaries between enterprises, it is a function link of network chain among logistics, information flow and capital flow, and has become "the third profit source". Many enterprises adopt new strategy, such as outsourcing, singleness supplier, concentration distribution and so on, to improve the efficiency of the supply chain, which makes the supply chain more complex and vulnerable to the impact of unexpected events from internal and external. Recently, the frequent occurrence of emergencies has played a serious impact on the inter-enterprise supply chain. It may result in transportation facilities are not available or delay the use of a temporary interruption of supply of raw materials of the supply chain, but also may result in blockage of information channel, demand fluctuations resulting in huge economic losses to the supply chain. Emergencies change the supply chain business model of traditional thinking. At present, as a hot area of research, most of the supply chain research focuses on under normal supply chain management. Facing of changing external environment within the supply chain, and under the current environment, based on supply chain management theory, with emergency management of the supply chain of emergency decision-making this thesis conducts in-depth study of specific include the following:
Firstly, two kind supply chain risk transmission model are constructed which are price pusher and demand puller. Each was discussed under the situations with inventory and without inventory. The transmission effect of supply chain risk mainly reflected on the risk of fluctuations in manufacture's and retailer's profits. To watch the risk transmission effects intuitively, this dissertation did example analyses for each model above with MATLAB, and gave corresponding conclusions. According to the previous studies, some tactics for supply chain risk management are presented.
Secondly, resource inputs and the contribution rate as the benchmark, the emergency incidents as a supply chain management, supply chain nodes that affect the distribution of business interests is an important factor in the risk of unexpected events that it will consider the interests of the supply chain, distribution mechanism, providing the coordination of the supply chain method of distribution of benefits. Described the distribution of benefits that affect the supply chain, the main factors, and compared to normal circumstances and take into account emergency situations the difference between the distribution of benefits was studied in normal circumstances, to consider the external unexpected events and unexpected events to consider the internal situation,1 to a supply chain, and 1 for n supply chain, distribution of interests of their respective types, methods and models.
Thirdly, the supply chain business decision-making patterns and ways of thinking are studied using game theory and considering emergency risk. And further examine the supply chain, distribution of benefits among business groups, law. In accordance with the supply chain the dominant position of enterprises of different and unexpected events from different sources, and through the establishment of the four kinds of combinations to consider the risk of unexpected events game model of supply chain enterprises. The probability of unexpected events will occur as a variable to study the different cases of supply chain based on emergencies game results and game groups, the main benefits of their distribution program.
Fourthly, this thesis has a research on the emergency coordination mechanism in supply chain under disruption by the method of WSR and a series of emergency management theory. Firstly, this thesis analyses the“Wuli”factor of the emergency coordination mechanism in supply chain under disruption, and proposes a series of pointed measures to reduce the instability of supply chain system. Secondly, this thesis makes use of the“Shili”to make overall plans of "Wuli", which is helpful to establishing the emergency coordination mechanism in supply chain under disruption and conducting the flow of emergency coordination. Finally, takes the factor of "Renli" into account, this thesis enhances the awareness of cooperation among enterprises in supply chain by all kind measures and realizes the coordination of the three factors.
Fifthly, using the Shipbuilding Supply Chain of RSZG for example, empirical analysis of the probability of unexpected events in different positions in the supply chain, the impact of the distribution of enterprise efficiency, and the face of unexpected events throughout the supply chain than the non-cooperative inter-firm cooperation beneficial to the conclusion. Through practice, the emergence of new problems, new research could be inspired by the phenomenon of workers in a more realistic theory of the coordination mechanism, which could further guide practice.
In today's increasingly complex of economy and society, it has important significant to consider the risk of emergency in case of corporate decision-making and coordination of the supply chain, whether in theory or in practice.
(1)针对定价推动型和需求拉动型两种典型的供应链分别探讨了突发事件成本风险和需求风险的传递机制。借助博弈论的思想分析了生产商和零售商双方的决策思维和定价策略,分别计算了其利润对成本以及利润对需求的风险弹性,并通过MATLAB对具体的算例进行了模拟,分析了随着原材料成本、需求总量以及需求弹性系数的变化,如何引起供应链利润发生风险波动,阐述了突发事件所引起的风险在供应链中传递的机制。
(2)以资源投入和资源贡献率为基准,将突发事件作为供应链管理中影响供应链节点企业利益分配问题的一个重要因素,提出考虑突发事件风险的供应链利益分配机制,提供了协调供应链的利益分配方法。阐述了影响供应链利益分配的主要因素的,比较了正常情况和考虑突发事件情况下利益分配的不同之处,研究了在正常情况、考虑外部突发事件及考虑内部突发事件情况下,1对1供应链和1对多供应链各自的利益分配类型、方法及模式。
(3)运用博弈论理论深入研究了考虑突发事件风险情况下供应链企业的决策模式和思维方式,进一步考察了供应链企业群体之间的利益分配规律。运用群体博弈理论和方法,按照供应链内各企业主体地位的不同和突发事件来源不同,并通过组合建立了四种考虑突发事件风险的供应链企业博弈模型。将突发事件发生的概率作为变量,研究了不同情况下基于突发事件的供应链群体博弈结果及博弈主体各自的效益分配方案。
(4)针对考虑突发事件风险情况下供应链成员企业间存在矛盾问题,提出以物理-事理-人理(WSR)方法为指导,运用应急管理等管理理论对供应链突成员企业行为进行协调。首先对供应链突发事件“物理”因素进行分析,提出了一系列的针对性措施以减少供应链系统的不稳定性,然后运用供应链应急协调的“事理”对“物理”进行统筹规划,构建供应链突发事件应急协调的机制,以指导供应链系统应急协调的流程。最后,兼顾“人理”因素,通过各种措施加强供应链系统中企业的合作意识,实现“人理”协同。
(5)针对我国造船供应链突发风险问题,分析了造船供应链突发风险的特点及利益分配的机制。并通过对RSZG造船供应链协作商CAD/CAM工作网络系统突发事件,实证分析了突发事件对该供应链的影响。运用内部突发事件1对多供应链群体博弈模型仿真了突发事件发生的概率对供应链中不同地位的企业效益分配的影响,并根据突发事件发生的概率分析了各企业采取的行动。
在经济社会日益复杂的今天,考虑突发事件风险情况下的供应链企业利益分配与行为决策,无论在理论上,还是实践中都具有重要的理论意义和参考价值。
Supply chain has broken the boundaries between enterprises, it is a function link of network chain among logistics, information flow and capital flow, and has become "the third profit source". Many enterprises adopt new strategy, such as outsourcing, singleness supplier, concentration distribution and so on, to improve the efficiency of the supply chain, which makes the supply chain more complex and vulnerable to the impact of unexpected events from internal and external. Recently, the frequent occurrence of emergencies has played a serious impact on the inter-enterprise supply chain. It may result in transportation facilities are not available or delay the use of a temporary interruption of supply of raw materials of the supply chain, but also may result in blockage of information channel, demand fluctuations resulting in huge economic losses to the supply chain. Emergencies change the supply chain business model of traditional thinking. At present, as a hot area of research, most of the supply chain research focuses on under normal supply chain management. Facing of changing external environment within the supply chain, and under the current environment, based on supply chain management theory, with emergency management of the supply chain of emergency decision-making this thesis conducts in-depth study of specific include the following:
Firstly, two kind supply chain risk transmission model are constructed which are price pusher and demand puller. Each was discussed under the situations with inventory and without inventory. The transmission effect of supply chain risk mainly reflected on the risk of fluctuations in manufacture's and retailer's profits. To watch the risk transmission effects intuitively, this dissertation did example analyses for each model above with MATLAB, and gave corresponding conclusions. According to the previous studies, some tactics for supply chain risk management are presented.
Secondly, resource inputs and the contribution rate as the benchmark, the emergency incidents as a supply chain management, supply chain nodes that affect the distribution of business interests is an important factor in the risk of unexpected events that it will consider the interests of the supply chain, distribution mechanism, providing the coordination of the supply chain method of distribution of benefits. Described the distribution of benefits that affect the supply chain, the main factors, and compared to normal circumstances and take into account emergency situations the difference between the distribution of benefits was studied in normal circumstances, to consider the external unexpected events and unexpected events to consider the internal situation,1 to a supply chain, and 1 for n supply chain, distribution of interests of their respective types, methods and models.
Thirdly, the supply chain business decision-making patterns and ways of thinking are studied using game theory and considering emergency risk. And further examine the supply chain, distribution of benefits among business groups, law. In accordance with the supply chain the dominant position of enterprises of different and unexpected events from different sources, and through the establishment of the four kinds of combinations to consider the risk of unexpected events game model of supply chain enterprises. The probability of unexpected events will occur as a variable to study the different cases of supply chain based on emergencies game results and game groups, the main benefits of their distribution program.
Fourthly, this thesis has a research on the emergency coordination mechanism in supply chain under disruption by the method of WSR and a series of emergency management theory. Firstly, this thesis analyses the“Wuli”factor of the emergency coordination mechanism in supply chain under disruption, and proposes a series of pointed measures to reduce the instability of supply chain system. Secondly, this thesis makes use of the“Shili”to make overall plans of "Wuli", which is helpful to establishing the emergency coordination mechanism in supply chain under disruption and conducting the flow of emergency coordination. Finally, takes the factor of "Renli" into account, this thesis enhances the awareness of cooperation among enterprises in supply chain by all kind measures and realizes the coordination of the three factors.
Fifthly, using the Shipbuilding Supply Chain of RSZG for example, empirical analysis of the probability of unexpected events in different positions in the supply chain, the impact of the distribution of enterprise efficiency, and the face of unexpected events throughout the supply chain than the non-cooperative inter-firm cooperation beneficial to the conclusion. Through practice, the emergence of new problems, new research could be inspired by the phenomenon of workers in a more realistic theory of the coordination mechanism, which could further guide practice.
In today's increasingly complex of economy and society, it has important significant to consider the risk of emergency in case of corporate decision-making and coordination of the supply chain, whether in theory or in practice.
引文
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