基于灰色系统理论的服装流行色预测研究
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摘要
服装服饰作为时尚产品的代表,其消费过程中“感性因素”权重在产品附加值中的比例不断扩大。在众多的感性因素中,色彩是产品形象最为直观的视觉表现因素之一,也是时尚产品提升附加值的重要手段,通过色彩的传达能够使产品在一定的空间环境中发挥其美感效应,从而形成色彩消费。流行色是现代色彩消费的一个重要特征,它不只是为了引导时尚而存在的一个抽象概念,而且是与现代商业市场紧密相连的时尚名词,因此流行色具有更强的消费性和商业指导性,对其进行准确地预测就显得尤为重要。
本论文选择对服装流行色预测进行研究,在查阅和总结当前服装流行色预测研究的主要思想、方法以及色彩调研方法的基础上,分析和概括出现代市场经济环境和科学技术条件所赋予服装流行色的新特性和现代服装流行色预测的特点;从心理学、生理学的内因角度以及经济、政治、文化、商业操作等外部环境两大方面对影响服装流行色预测的因素进行分析,综合设计出服装流行色预测的几个方面,并将本课题预测研究的切入点放在服装流行色历史信息上,提出用新的色彩调研方法将历年服装流行色资料微观化、细致化,运用颜色科学的理论知识和日本色研所的NCD色彩意象理论及两者之间的紧密关系,从抽象和意象思维两方面把握预测。文中收集2000年-2007年春夏几个权威机构发布的女装流行色色样信息,以春夏女装蓝色为例,选择PANTONETPX色卡作为流行色采样色卡,用Macbeth Color-Eye 7000A色彩分光仪器进行测色试验,获得颜色物理特征明度L*值、色度坐标a、b,纯度值Cab,而后做L*ab色彩空间和NCD色彩意象量表和形容词量表的分布映射,利用灰色预测理论建立2000年至2006年春夏女装小样本统计的蓝色流行程度评价值、明度、纯度、色彩意象群区分布百分比和色相倾向分布百分比的GM(1,1)全数据和部分数据信息预测模型,运用经过精度检验的GM(1,1)模型预测2007年春夏女装蓝色的流行趋势,依据2007年春夏权威机构的流行色信息对预测的结果进行验证和分析。
国内外目前采用传统的色彩调研手段和定性方法调查、预测服装流行色,本研究运用新的色彩调研方法,并在此基础上将灰色预测和定性预测相结合进行深入探讨,研究成果既能使以计算机为核心的辅助设计、信息预测的模拟和描述运用到服装领域中,实现预测技术化和技术复制化,又能不断地丰富服装流行色调研和预测方法,从而更大限度的辅助企业预测,对指导服装企业的的企划和生产有着理论意义和实践意义。
As a representative of fashion, the weight of the sensitive factors is continually expanding in the share of value-added of products in the consumption of Fashion Clothing and Accessories products. In the many sensitive factors, the color image is not only one of visual performance factors of VI of products, but also important means of enhancing value-added of fashion products. Color makes their products to have a certain aesthetic effects of the space environment and forms color consumption. Fashion Color is an important feature of color consumption in the modern society. Researching Fashion Color is an abstract concept that exists and guides Fashion. Moreover, the fashionable term is closely connected with the market. Fashion Color becomes more consumerism and businesslize. It is extremely important to accurately forecast Fashion Color.
The article chooses studying forecast of clothing fashion color, surveys the traditional method of color research and the main idea and thought of the clothing fashion color forecast at the present, analyzes and summarizes the new features of fashion color and the character of fashion color forecast in the modern market environment and conditions, finds the factors that influence fashion colors forecast from the internal psychology, physiology and the external economic, political and Commercial operation etc. and designs several stages of forecast. In this article the historical data of fashion color is used as the entry of forecast. And the new method of color research is applied to make the information to be microcosmic and particularity and masters the forecast from abstract and image. The article collects 2000-2007 spring and summer information introduced by authority organization as a representative sample of this study. For the example of spring and summer women’s wear blue, chooses the PANTONETPX popular colors card and uses Macbeth Color-Eye the 7000A color dispersion of light instrument to carry on the color experiment, obtains the value L*, chromaticity coordinates a, b, purity value Cab, makes the Lab color space and the NCD color image space distribution maps, discusses establishing GM (1, 1) model of fashion degree, lightness and purity with a part of or full information for determining the one of Fashion Color forecasting groups. Tested GM (1, 1) models are used to choose 2007 women’s spring and summer color value for the popular trend forecast and the authority of the popular spring and summer of 2007 based on information and analyze and verify the results.
At present, forecasting clothing fashion color mainly adopts the traditional color research and a qualitative way. This article suggests the new color research and combines grey forecast with qualitative one. In study we qualify the fashion color and forecast from the angle of theory of system, which will not only make computer aided design, simulation and description of information forecast used to the field of garment, but also improve constantly the method of fashion color forecast, so that it can aid the enterprise forecast to the greatest extent or degree to guide production and consumption.
本论文选择对服装流行色预测进行研究,在查阅和总结当前服装流行色预测研究的主要思想、方法以及色彩调研方法的基础上,分析和概括出现代市场经济环境和科学技术条件所赋予服装流行色的新特性和现代服装流行色预测的特点;从心理学、生理学的内因角度以及经济、政治、文化、商业操作等外部环境两大方面对影响服装流行色预测的因素进行分析,综合设计出服装流行色预测的几个方面,并将本课题预测研究的切入点放在服装流行色历史信息上,提出用新的色彩调研方法将历年服装流行色资料微观化、细致化,运用颜色科学的理论知识和日本色研所的NCD色彩意象理论及两者之间的紧密关系,从抽象和意象思维两方面把握预测。文中收集2000年-2007年春夏几个权威机构发布的女装流行色色样信息,以春夏女装蓝色为例,选择PANTONETPX色卡作为流行色采样色卡,用Macbeth Color-Eye 7000A色彩分光仪器进行测色试验,获得颜色物理特征明度L*值、色度坐标a、b,纯度值Cab,而后做L*ab色彩空间和NCD色彩意象量表和形容词量表的分布映射,利用灰色预测理论建立2000年至2006年春夏女装小样本统计的蓝色流行程度评价值、明度、纯度、色彩意象群区分布百分比和色相倾向分布百分比的GM(1,1)全数据和部分数据信息预测模型,运用经过精度检验的GM(1,1)模型预测2007年春夏女装蓝色的流行趋势,依据2007年春夏权威机构的流行色信息对预测的结果进行验证和分析。
国内外目前采用传统的色彩调研手段和定性方法调查、预测服装流行色,本研究运用新的色彩调研方法,并在此基础上将灰色预测和定性预测相结合进行深入探讨,研究成果既能使以计算机为核心的辅助设计、信息预测的模拟和描述运用到服装领域中,实现预测技术化和技术复制化,又能不断地丰富服装流行色调研和预测方法,从而更大限度的辅助企业预测,对指导服装企业的的企划和生产有着理论意义和实践意义。
As a representative of fashion, the weight of the sensitive factors is continually expanding in the share of value-added of products in the consumption of Fashion Clothing and Accessories products. In the many sensitive factors, the color image is not only one of visual performance factors of VI of products, but also important means of enhancing value-added of fashion products. Color makes their products to have a certain aesthetic effects of the space environment and forms color consumption. Fashion Color is an important feature of color consumption in the modern society. Researching Fashion Color is an abstract concept that exists and guides Fashion. Moreover, the fashionable term is closely connected with the market. Fashion Color becomes more consumerism and businesslize. It is extremely important to accurately forecast Fashion Color.
The article chooses studying forecast of clothing fashion color, surveys the traditional method of color research and the main idea and thought of the clothing fashion color forecast at the present, analyzes and summarizes the new features of fashion color and the character of fashion color forecast in the modern market environment and conditions, finds the factors that influence fashion colors forecast from the internal psychology, physiology and the external economic, political and Commercial operation etc. and designs several stages of forecast. In this article the historical data of fashion color is used as the entry of forecast. And the new method of color research is applied to make the information to be microcosmic and particularity and masters the forecast from abstract and image. The article collects 2000-2007 spring and summer information introduced by authority organization as a representative sample of this study. For the example of spring and summer women’s wear blue, chooses the PANTONETPX popular colors card and uses Macbeth Color-Eye the 7000A color dispersion of light instrument to carry on the color experiment, obtains the value L*, chromaticity coordinates a, b, purity value Cab, makes the Lab color space and the NCD color image space distribution maps, discusses establishing GM (1, 1) model of fashion degree, lightness and purity with a part of or full information for determining the one of Fashion Color forecasting groups. Tested GM (1, 1) models are used to choose 2007 women’s spring and summer color value for the popular trend forecast and the authority of the popular spring and summer of 2007 based on information and analyze and verify the results.
At present, forecasting clothing fashion color mainly adopts the traditional color research and a qualitative way. This article suggests the new color research and combines grey forecast with qualitative one. In study we qualify the fashion color and forecast from the angle of theory of system, which will not only make computer aided design, simulation and description of information forecast used to the field of garment, but also improve constantly the method of fashion color forecast, so that it can aid the enterprise forecast to the greatest extent or degree to guide production and consumption.
引文
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2张星.服装流行及设计[M].北京:中国纺织出版社,2000.150-162
3王蕴强.服装色彩学[M].北京:中国纺织出版社,2006.131-132
4吴雪筠.国际流行色在中国应用的三个要素[J].流行色.2006.NO.2:10-13
5孙明玺.预测学概论[M].杭州:浙江教育出版社,1989.28
6 Rita Perna,李宏伟,王倩梅.流行预测[M].北京:中国纺织出版社,2000.17
7张星.服装流行及设计[M].北京:中国纺织出版社,2000.165-170
8陈林龙.采用FPV法预测流行色[J].流行色.1991.NO.4 8-9
9李鹏.流行色信息系统的研究[D]:[硕士学位论文].西安:西北纺织工学院服装.2000
10吴有为.试验设计与数据处理[M].苏州:苏州大学出版社,2002.285
11周琴.用回归分析法预测服装流行色[J].丝绸.2005.NO.2:35-37
12贾京生.服饰色彩[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2004.204
13贾京生.服装色彩设计学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2004.94-95
14 Rita Perna,李宏伟,王倩梅,洪瑞璘.流行预测[M].北京:中国纺织出版社,2000.8
15苗莉,王文革服装心理学(第二版)[M].北京:中国纺织出版社,2000.87
16杨以雄,顾庆良.服装市场营销[M].上海:中国纺织大学出版社,1998.50-51
17皮埃尔·吉罗.怀宇译.符号学概论[M].成都:四川人民出版社,1998.3-5
18李宏伟,王倩梅,洪瑞璘.流行预测[M].北京:中国纺织出版社,2000.3
19 http://www.businesscolour.com/DisplayText.asp
20黄元庆.服装色彩学[M].北京:中国纺织出版社,2000.100-102
21李当歧.服装学概论[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1998.276
22白芸.色彩设计[M].西安:陕西人民美术出版社,1996.57-58
23齐小华,高福安.预测理论与方法[M],北京:北京广播学院出版社,1994.80
24 Rita Perna,李宏伟,王倩梅,洪瑞璘.流行预测[M].北京:中国纺织出版社,2000.3
25苗莉,王文革服装心理学(第二版)[M].北京:中国纺织出版社,2000.87-89
26苗莉,王文革服装心理学(第二版)[M].北京:中国纺织出版社,2000.87
27张彪.色彩设计构成[M].合肥:安徽美术出版社,2003.35
28苏亚民.市场营销学[M].北京:中国广播电视大学出版社,1993.54-58
29陈连年.色彩设计[M].重庆:西南师范大学出版社,2001.129
30王蕴强.服装色彩学[M].北京:中国纺织出版社,2006.129-130
31(日)小林重顺.吴十洲(译).色彩战略[M].北京:中国商业出版社,1991.16-21
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