不确定条件下应急物资多式联运调度模型研究
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摘要
近年来，世界各国各种自然灾难频发。而且随着社会经济科技的发展进步，各种人为灾难或者技术灾难日益增多，更为严重的恐怖袭击事件也频繁发生。这些突发事件不仅造成生命财产的巨大损失，而且还会影响社会稳定，甚至危及国家安全，对经济社会发展全局产生重大影响。与此同时，人类对自然灾害的预测和预报水平也在不断提高，但至今很多自然灾害仍然无法准确预测发生的时间、地点和强度等信息。如何应对突发事件，如何减少突发事件给人类带来的损失是全世界的国家或者社会组织要面对的强有力的挑战之一。加强应急管理尤其是其中的应急物资保障工作管理是灾后有效救援的关键。
本论文以突发事件发生后的短期，不确定条件下应急物资多式联运调度决策问题为研究对象，综合运用管理学、运筹学、系统决策理论、优化建模方法，将定性分析与定量研究相结合，比较全面地研究了不确定条件下应急物资多式联运调度决策问题。
首先，对应急物资多式联运的特性展开分析。从大规模突发事件的特点和多式联运的优势两个方面分析了应急物资多式联运调度的前提和必要性。对应急环境与常态环境下多式联运的特点进行了比较分析。同时，总结了现有应急模型中关于“时间”因素的四种主要处理方式。为后续有关应急物资多式联运调度建模的研究奠定基础。
其次，对应急物资和需求点的需求紧迫性分别展开研究。提出了基于模糊综合评判的应急物资需求紧迫性分级方法，通过数值分析说明了提出的方法能同时确定需求紧迫度的值和需求紧迫性的层级，而且简便实用。论文直接基于需求点的相关信息，提出了基于灰色模糊TOPSIS方法的需求点的需求紧迫性分级方法，满足各个需求点对应急物资需求类型、数量、时间的差异性需求。
再次，构建了无运力约束和需求模糊条件下应急物资多式联运动态调度决策模型，考虑了各个需求点的最低保障率（即公平性），考虑各个需求点的需求紧迫性差异（即差异性），为科学制定应急物资多式联运调度方案提供支持。模型中假设运输车辆是充足的，建立了以需求满足率最大化为前提条件，以总应急时间最小化和应急成本最小化为目标的带有序关系的多目标整数规划模型。采用最可能值法处理模糊信息，将底层目标转化为约束式实现序关系的处理，并用专家动态赋权法将两目标转变为单目标，最后用CPLEX编程实现模型算例的求解，得到全局最优解。
最后，研究了运力约束和随机路径时间条件下应急物资多式联运动态决策问题。考虑了应急物资和需求点的需求紧迫性，考虑了应急时间和应急成本的均衡性，以应急损失最小为前提目标，建立了以应急时间和应急成本为目标的模糊随机规划模型。使用LINGO软件中的全局求解器，找到了全局最优解，且求解迅速。数值实例表明了模型和方法的可行性和有效性。
通过对以上问题的研究，进一步丰富了应急物资多式联运调度的相关理论，同时也可用于指导现实中突发事件的应急方案的科学制定，避免单纯依靠决策者经验决策，为有效科学地开展应急救援活动提供技术支持。
In recent years occurred all kinds of natural disasters frequently all over the world.With the development of the social economy science and technology, all kinds ofman-made disasters or technical disaster also increasingly grow, and more serious terroristalso frequently attacks human beings. These emergencies not only cause huge loss of lifeand property, but also affect the social stability, national security, the overall economicand social development. Meanwhile, the prediction and forecast level for natural disasteralso constantly improve, but many natural disasters are still unable to be predicted for theoccurrence of time, place and intensity information. How to deal with emergencies andhow to reduce the loss is one of the strong challenges for the world's countries or socialorganizations to face. Strengthening the emergency management especially the emergencymaterials dispatching management is the key to effective aid after disasters.
This dissertation focused on decision-making problem for emergency materialsmultimodal transport dispatching under uncertain conditions on the short-term of disasterhappened. It combined qualitative analysis in areas of management, operation research,system decision making, optimization modeling, with quantitative analysis, to studydecision-making problem for emergency materials multimodal transport dispatching underuncertain conditions.
Firstly, the characteristics of emergency materials multimodal transport wereanalyzed. The premise and necessity of emergency materials multimodal transportscheduling were analyzed from two aspects, which were the characteristics of large scaleincident and the advantages of multimodal transport. Multimodal transport characteristicswere compared under emergency environment and normal environment. Meanwhile, thefour main methods to deal "time" problem were summarized in existing emergency modelresearch. This is the foundation for subsequent relevant research.
Secondly, the needs urgency of emergency materials and the demand points wereresearched respectively. A demand urgency classification method of emergency materialsbased on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was proposed. The numerical analysis showedthat the proposed method can determine the value and level of demand urgent degree, and the proposed method was simple and useful. Considering relevant information of demandpoints, a classification method for needs urgency of demand point based on grey fuzzyTOPSIS method was proposed, which meets the different demand about type, quantity,and time of various demand points for emergency materials.
Thirdly, dynamic scheduling decision model of emergency materials multimodaltransport was constructed under the fuzzy demand conditions, considering the lowest ofsatisfactory rate of demand points (equity), and the difference of demand urgency for eachdemand point (difference). Based on the premise that the number of transport vehicles wasenough, the model firstly maximized the demand meet rate, then minimized the totalemergency time and emergency cost, so the proposed model was a multi-objective integerprogramming model. The most likely value method was used to deal with fuzzyinformation. The bottom target was converted into constraint to realize the disposal oforder relation, and dynamic weighting method by experts was also adopted to convert twogoals into single target. An example was realized by the CPLEX programming, and theglobal optimal solution of the model was gotten.
Finally, dynamic decision-making problems of emergency materials multimodaltransport under the conditions of the capacity constraint and random path time werestudied. Considering the demands urgency of emergency materials and the demand points,and the balance of emergency time and emergency cost, stochastic programming modelwith the goals of the emergency time and emergency cost was established based on thepremise of making emergency loss minimum. The global optimal solution was foundquickly with the help of the global solver of LINGO software. Numerical results showedthat the model was feasible and valid.
With the above research, the related theory of the emergency materials multimodaltransport scheduling further be enriched, and the research results can be used to guide theactual emergencies rescue, so as to avoid only depending upon the experience of decisionmakers. Effective and scientific decision-making for carrying out the emergency rescueactivities was supported technically.
本论文以突发事件发生后的短期，不确定条件下应急物资多式联运调度决策问题为研究对象，综合运用管理学、运筹学、系统决策理论、优化建模方法，将定性分析与定量研究相结合，比较全面地研究了不确定条件下应急物资多式联运调度决策问题。
首先，对应急物资多式联运的特性展开分析。从大规模突发事件的特点和多式联运的优势两个方面分析了应急物资多式联运调度的前提和必要性。对应急环境与常态环境下多式联运的特点进行了比较分析。同时，总结了现有应急模型中关于“时间”因素的四种主要处理方式。为后续有关应急物资多式联运调度建模的研究奠定基础。
其次，对应急物资和需求点的需求紧迫性分别展开研究。提出了基于模糊综合评判的应急物资需求紧迫性分级方法，通过数值分析说明了提出的方法能同时确定需求紧迫度的值和需求紧迫性的层级，而且简便实用。论文直接基于需求点的相关信息，提出了基于灰色模糊TOPSIS方法的需求点的需求紧迫性分级方法，满足各个需求点对应急物资需求类型、数量、时间的差异性需求。
再次，构建了无运力约束和需求模糊条件下应急物资多式联运动态调度决策模型，考虑了各个需求点的最低保障率（即公平性），考虑各个需求点的需求紧迫性差异（即差异性），为科学制定应急物资多式联运调度方案提供支持。模型中假设运输车辆是充足的，建立了以需求满足率最大化为前提条件，以总应急时间最小化和应急成本最小化为目标的带有序关系的多目标整数规划模型。采用最可能值法处理模糊信息，将底层目标转化为约束式实现序关系的处理，并用专家动态赋权法将两目标转变为单目标，最后用CPLEX编程实现模型算例的求解，得到全局最优解。
最后，研究了运力约束和随机路径时间条件下应急物资多式联运动态决策问题。考虑了应急物资和需求点的需求紧迫性，考虑了应急时间和应急成本的均衡性，以应急损失最小为前提目标，建立了以应急时间和应急成本为目标的模糊随机规划模型。使用LINGO软件中的全局求解器，找到了全局最优解，且求解迅速。数值实例表明了模型和方法的可行性和有效性。
通过对以上问题的研究，进一步丰富了应急物资多式联运调度的相关理论，同时也可用于指导现实中突发事件的应急方案的科学制定，避免单纯依靠决策者经验决策，为有效科学地开展应急救援活动提供技术支持。
In recent years occurred all kinds of natural disasters frequently all over the world.With the development of the social economy science and technology, all kinds ofman-made disasters or technical disaster also increasingly grow, and more serious terroristalso frequently attacks human beings. These emergencies not only cause huge loss of lifeand property, but also affect the social stability, national security, the overall economicand social development. Meanwhile, the prediction and forecast level for natural disasteralso constantly improve, but many natural disasters are still unable to be predicted for theoccurrence of time, place and intensity information. How to deal with emergencies andhow to reduce the loss is one of the strong challenges for the world's countries or socialorganizations to face. Strengthening the emergency management especially the emergencymaterials dispatching management is the key to effective aid after disasters.
This dissertation focused on decision-making problem for emergency materialsmultimodal transport dispatching under uncertain conditions on the short-term of disasterhappened. It combined qualitative analysis in areas of management, operation research,system decision making, optimization modeling, with quantitative analysis, to studydecision-making problem for emergency materials multimodal transport dispatching underuncertain conditions.
Firstly, the characteristics of emergency materials multimodal transport wereanalyzed. The premise and necessity of emergency materials multimodal transportscheduling were analyzed from two aspects, which were the characteristics of large scaleincident and the advantages of multimodal transport. Multimodal transport characteristicswere compared under emergency environment and normal environment. Meanwhile, thefour main methods to deal "time" problem were summarized in existing emergency modelresearch. This is the foundation for subsequent relevant research.
Secondly, the needs urgency of emergency materials and the demand points wereresearched respectively. A demand urgency classification method of emergency materialsbased on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was proposed. The numerical analysis showedthat the proposed method can determine the value and level of demand urgent degree, and the proposed method was simple and useful. Considering relevant information of demandpoints, a classification method for needs urgency of demand point based on grey fuzzyTOPSIS method was proposed, which meets the different demand about type, quantity,and time of various demand points for emergency materials.
Thirdly, dynamic scheduling decision model of emergency materials multimodaltransport was constructed under the fuzzy demand conditions, considering the lowest ofsatisfactory rate of demand points (equity), and the difference of demand urgency for eachdemand point (difference). Based on the premise that the number of transport vehicles wasenough, the model firstly maximized the demand meet rate, then minimized the totalemergency time and emergency cost, so the proposed model was a multi-objective integerprogramming model. The most likely value method was used to deal with fuzzyinformation. The bottom target was converted into constraint to realize the disposal oforder relation, and dynamic weighting method by experts was also adopted to convert twogoals into single target. An example was realized by the CPLEX programming, and theglobal optimal solution of the model was gotten.
Finally, dynamic decision-making problems of emergency materials multimodaltransport under the conditions of the capacity constraint and random path time werestudied. Considering the demands urgency of emergency materials and the demand points,and the balance of emergency time and emergency cost, stochastic programming modelwith the goals of the emergency time and emergency cost was established based on thepremise of making emergency loss minimum. The global optimal solution was foundquickly with the help of the global solver of LINGO software. Numerical results showedthat the model was feasible and valid.
With the above research, the related theory of the emergency materials multimodaltransport scheduling further be enriched, and the research results can be used to guide theactual emergencies rescue, so as to avoid only depending upon the experience of decisionmakers. Effective and scientific decision-making for carrying out the emergency rescueactivities was supported technically.
引文
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