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中国上市公司资本结构调整速度与调整路径的实证研究
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摘要
动态资本结构理论认为,企业内外环境的变化使得企业目标资本结构的选择成为一个动态过程,信息不对称等市场缺陷因素的存在使得企业的实际资本结构偏离其目标资本结构,因此企业需要在不断变化的环境中不断地调整其资本结构以达到最优状态。那么,中国上市公司的资本结构是不是也在进行着动态调整?其调整速度是多少?调整速度由哪些因素决定?调整路径又有哪些?为什么选择这些调整路径?采用怎样的调整路径组合才能提高企业融资效率和企业价值?这些问题都有待理论分析和实证检验,本文拟对此进行一定的探索。
     利用中国非金融上市公司1997~2006年的非平衡面板数据,通过构建资本结构部分调整模型,实证检验了中国上市公司资本结构调整速度的决定因素。研究发现:(1)对市场资产负债率而言,偏离目标资本结构的程度、公司成长性、公司规模与资本结构调整速度显著正相关;对账面资产负债率而言,公司成长性与资本结构调整速度负相关但不显著;公司声誉对资本结构调整速度没有显著影响。(2)以投资机会和偿债能力把样本区分为财务约束公司与非财务约束公司,则非财务约束公司调整其资本结构要明显快于财务约束公司。(3)以GDP增长率把样本区分为较好、较差和一般的宏观经济环境,则在较好的宏观经济环境下公司有着较快的资本结构调整速度;在较好的宏观经济条件下,其账面资本结构的调整速度为0.679,公司大约需要220天的时间可弥补当前负债率与目标负债率差距的一半。
     利用中国非金融上市公司2002~2005年的平衡面板数据,实证分析了企业资本结构调整路径选择的影响因素及调整效率。基于企业资产负债表把公司资本结构的调整路径分为商业信用、短期负债、长期负债、发行股票和内部留存等五种,实证结果显示:(1)资产的有形性与长期负债调整路径显著正相关;盈利性与内部留存调整路径显著正相关;政府干预与长期借款调整路径显著正相关;企业声誉与商业信用调整路径显著正相关;企业成长性与内部留存调整路径显著负相关;高成长性且无财务约束的企业偏好长期负债和短期负债的调整路径;国有控股且股权集中度较高的企业倾向于股票发行的调整路径。(2)尽管这些因素对资本结构调整路径选择有一定的偏向性,但这种偏向并不一定能提高企业融资效率。这是因为同一调整路径在不同的环境条件下所发挥的功能和作用不同,企业需要根据自身的实际情况来设计调整路径组合,从而优化资本结构和提高企业价值。
     本文还从发展历程、变化趋势、行业特性、地区差异等方面系统分析了中国上市公司资本结构的特征,比较分析了中西方国家资本结构的异同,并结合资本结构调整速度和调整路径的实证研究结论,提出了具有中国特色的资本结构治理措施和优化对策。本文的研究有利于企业建立资本结构的动态优化机制,其中的一些实证结果,可为中国上市公司的财务政策制定和公司治理结构设计提供建议,也可为政府等管理部门制定相关政策规章提供参考。
     本文的改进与创新主要体现在:(1)构建了一个多层次的、动态的、双向的资本结构调整模型框架。在目标资本结构决定模型中,纳入了公司治理因素和制度导向因素;在资本结构调整模型中,调整速度变量具有随着时间和公司特征变化的动态属性;引入融资约束和宏观经济环境,考虑了它们对资本结构决定及调整的直接影响和间接影响。(2)解决了部分调整模型估计的内生性和序列相关等问题。把目标资本结构的影响因素“内化”在资本结构调整模型中,直接“一步”得出研究结论:采用了一阶差分后的GMM估计方法,有效避免了模型估计的共线性、异方差和序列相关等问题。(3)分析了资本结构调整路径选择(组合)的效率。在定性描述企业融资效率的基础上,从融资成本和融资风险两方面度量了企业融资效率,并应用于资本结构调整路径(组合)的效率分析。
Dynamic capital structure theory shows that target debt ratios varies as the change of macroeconomic and microeconomic condition, and firms deviate from their target debt ratio owing to information asymmetry and transaction costs, so firms need continually adjust their actual capital structure to their target as the change of economic condition. The capital structure adjustment of Chinese listed firms perhaps is different from developed country because of the special institutional environment. How about the adjustment speed? Which factors determine the adjustment speed? How about the adjustment approach and why we choose these adjustment approaches? Which adjustment approach portfolio can enhance financing efficiency and firm value? All these problems are open for theoretical analysis and empirical test.
     Based on the unbalance panel data of Chinese non-financial listed firms from 1997 to 2006, this article establishes a partial adjustment model to test the decisive factors which affect the adjustment speed of capital structure. The empirical results show that:
     (1) The adjustment speed calculated on market value is significantly positive related to the distance away from target capital structure, the growth and the scale of firms. The adjustment speed calculated on book value is negative related to the growth of firm, but not significant. The adjustment speed is not related to the firm reputation.
     (2) According to investment opportunity and solvency, the sample is classified into financially constrained firms and financially unconstrained firms, and the adjustment speed of financially unconstrained firms is faster than financially constrained firms.
     (3) According to the growth rate of GDP, the macroeconomic condition is classified into good, bad and middle. The adjustment speed under good macroeconomic condition is the fastest, and the adjustment speed calculated on book value is 0.679, that means firms take approximately 220 days to close half the gap between actual and target debt ratio.
     Based on the balance panel data of Chinese non-financial listed firms from 2002 to 2005, this article analyzes the factors affecting the adjustment approach of capital structure and the adjustment efficiency. According to the balance sheet this article divides the adjustment approach into commercial credit, short-term debt, long-term debt, issuing shares and retained earnings. The empirical results show that:
     (1) The adjustment approach by long-term debt is significantly positive related to tangibility of the asset. The adjustment approach by internal financing is significantly positive related to profitability. The adjustment approach by internal financing is significantly negative related to the growth, and the adjustment approach by long-term and short-term debt is signifieantly positive related to the firms with better growth and financially unconstrained. The adjustment approach by commercial credit is signifieantly positive related to the firm reputation, and the adjustment approach by issuing shares is significantly positive related to the firms with state-controlled shares and a higher degree of ownership concentration. The adjustment approach by long-term debt is signifieantly positive related to firms with a strong government intervention in business.
     (2) Though some factors preference some adjustment approaches, this approach preference not always enhance financing efficiency because of manager's personal benefit. The same adjustment approach has different function and effect under different conditions, so firms need design their own portfolio of adjustment approach to optimize capital structure and enhance firm value.
     This article also analyzes the capital structure of Chinese listed firms from the development trend, industry characteristic, regional differences and the similarities and difference of capital structure between China and western countries. Based on the empirical result of adjustment speed and adjustment approach, this article put forward some measures with Chinese characteristic in managing and optimizing capital structure. This study is help for some firm to establish the dynamic optimization mechanism of capital structure and design the corporate governance structure; some empirical results provide suggestions for government and other management departments in setting up relevant policies.
     This article has the following innovations and improvements:
     (1) This article constructs a multi-level, dynamic and two-way capital structure adjustment model. The target capital structure decision model contains institutional and corporate governance factors. The adjustment speed is a dynamic variable with time and firm characteristics in the capital structure adjustment model. Taking into account the financial constraint and macroeconomic condition, this article analyzes their direct effect and the indirect effect through firm characteristics on the speed of adjustment.
     (2) This article solves the endogeneity and serial correlation problems of capital structure adjustment model which are not availably deal with in foregoing literature. The decisive factors of target capital structure are endogenized into the partial adjustment capital structure model and the empirical results can be directly gained in one step. The GMM and the first-difference transformation applied to model estimate in this article effectively avoid some collinearity, heteroscedasticity and serial correlation.
     (3) This article analyzes the financing efficiency of the adjustment approach choice. On the basis of qualitative description of the financing efficiency, this article measure financing efficiency from financing cost and financing risk, which is used in efficiency analysis on adjustment approach or adjustment approach portfolio.
引文
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