基于制造商的供应链风险管理研究
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摘要
自从我国加入WTO以来,我国的制造业取得了飞速的发展,但制造企业供应链与西方工业强国比起来还处于发展阶段。为了更好的应对市场竞争,越来越多的企业供应链正向核心制造企业供应链转变,即以某一大型制造企业为核心构筑而成,由该企业充分发挥它所具有的产品优势、技术优势和管理优势来管理组织该链。随着参与该链成员企业越来越多,该链结构日趋复杂,加上企业间协作和企业跨区域经营,该链的风险问题变得十分突出。为了保证该链安全有效地运作,需要对其风险进行有效的管理。
本文先是对供应链风险的相关理论及研究现状进行了概述。然后根据前人的研究成果,对制造商核心型供应链风险因素的来源进行了分析,以汽车供应链为通过实证分析识别了供应链风险的主要因素。论文随后创新性地将灰色关联分析与模糊综合评价法相结合,建立了基于灰色关联分析的模糊综合评价模型。统计历史数据得出各风险因素给供应链带来的损失值,然后通过灰色关联分析确定各风险因子的权重,最后进行模糊综合评价求得系统风险。并通过实例对该模型和算法进行了验证,模型将主观判断与定量分析相结合,充分运用了历史数据,能有效、全面、系统的评价供应链风险,这是以前的学者没有研究过的。论文最后根据前面的研究提出了制造商核心型供应链风险预防控制的体系框架。
本文集中于理论模型的分析与实证,对核心制造商进行供应链风险管理有一定的参考价值,同时对于今后的研究也具有一定启发。
Since our country became a member of WTO, the manufacturing enterprises of our country have obtained great development. However, the supply chain of manufacturing enterprises in our country is just being the beginning stage of development comparing with one in the developed countries. In order to participate in the market competition better, more and more supply chains of manufacturing enterprises are changing into supply chain of core manufacturing enterprises. This type of supply chain is constructed by someone large manufacturing enterprise as the core which manage and organize the chain by using its product advantage, the technique advantage and the management advantage. Along with the number in increment of this chain's member, the structure of this chain is gradually complicated. The collaboration between enterprises and the across-district operation of enterprises make this chain's risk be an outstanding problem. So this chain's risk should be managed for its efficient and safe operation.
Firstly, this Paper carries on the summary towards the risk theories and the supply chain risk research. Then according to results of previous studies, the supply chain risk factors of core manufacturing enterprises were analyzed. Then combining the Gray Relation Analysis with the Fuzzy synthetic evaluation, risk of supply chain is studied in this paper.By investigating the loss value of each risk factor of supply chain from historical data, the weight of each risk factor can be determined. Then the whole system risk is obtained according to the fuzzy synthetic evaluation. A synthetic evaluation model is given, which combines the quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis is and evaluate the risk effectively. Finally, the prevention and controls system frame of supply chain of manufacturing core type is put forward. Then it introduces the function mold of this system.
This paper focuses on the theoretic model and data analysis, Result from this study is not only of considerable value to manufacturing industry but also an illumination for future research.
本文先是对供应链风险的相关理论及研究现状进行了概述。然后根据前人的研究成果,对制造商核心型供应链风险因素的来源进行了分析,以汽车供应链为通过实证分析识别了供应链风险的主要因素。论文随后创新性地将灰色关联分析与模糊综合评价法相结合,建立了基于灰色关联分析的模糊综合评价模型。统计历史数据得出各风险因素给供应链带来的损失值,然后通过灰色关联分析确定各风险因子的权重,最后进行模糊综合评价求得系统风险。并通过实例对该模型和算法进行了验证,模型将主观判断与定量分析相结合,充分运用了历史数据,能有效、全面、系统的评价供应链风险,这是以前的学者没有研究过的。论文最后根据前面的研究提出了制造商核心型供应链风险预防控制的体系框架。
本文集中于理论模型的分析与实证,对核心制造商进行供应链风险管理有一定的参考价值,同时对于今后的研究也具有一定启发。
Since our country became a member of WTO, the manufacturing enterprises of our country have obtained great development. However, the supply chain of manufacturing enterprises in our country is just being the beginning stage of development comparing with one in the developed countries. In order to participate in the market competition better, more and more supply chains of manufacturing enterprises are changing into supply chain of core manufacturing enterprises. This type of supply chain is constructed by someone large manufacturing enterprise as the core which manage and organize the chain by using its product advantage, the technique advantage and the management advantage. Along with the number in increment of this chain's member, the structure of this chain is gradually complicated. The collaboration between enterprises and the across-district operation of enterprises make this chain's risk be an outstanding problem. So this chain's risk should be managed for its efficient and safe operation.
Firstly, this Paper carries on the summary towards the risk theories and the supply chain risk research. Then according to results of previous studies, the supply chain risk factors of core manufacturing enterprises were analyzed. Then combining the Gray Relation Analysis with the Fuzzy synthetic evaluation, risk of supply chain is studied in this paper.By investigating the loss value of each risk factor of supply chain from historical data, the weight of each risk factor can be determined. Then the whole system risk is obtained according to the fuzzy synthetic evaluation. A synthetic evaluation model is given, which combines the quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis is and evaluate the risk effectively. Finally, the prevention and controls system frame of supply chain of manufacturing core type is put forward. Then it introduces the function mold of this system.
This paper focuses on the theoretic model and data analysis, Result from this study is not only of considerable value to manufacturing industry but also an illumination for future research.
引文
[1]中国物流与采购联合会.中国制造业供应链研究报告[M].北京：中国物资出版社,2004.11～17
[2]Martin Christopher. Logistics And Supply Chain Management [J]. Workforce Management,1994.101～121
[3]Stevens. Supply chain management:strategy, Planning and Operation[J]. S-loan Management Review,2001.283～334
[4]Evens. Managing risk within the supply chain[J]. The International J-ournal of Logistics Management,2000,6(2):23～27
[5]Harrison. Identifying and managing supply chain vunerability[J]. Log-isties and Transport Focus,2002,15(3):101～110
[6]Wendell. arlandC, Risk in supply network[J]. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management,2003, (2):134～169
[7]马士华,林勇,陈志祥.供应链管理[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2000.156～162
[8]Cranfield Management School. Supply chain vulnerability[M]. Cranfield University,2002, (3):246～261
[9]Deloftte. risks from breaking organizations[M], Supply chains 2004, (3) :66～78
[10]韩东东,施国洪,马汉武.供应链管理中的风险防范[J].工业工程,2002,(2)：15～19
[11]张存禄、杨俊.数据挖掘在供应链风险控制中的应用研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2004,(6)：142～149
[12]倪燕翎.面向供应链管理的业务流程重组[J].物流技术,2003,(4)：67～89
[13]Lindroth. Supply Chain Networks, Electronic Commerce and Supply Side and Demand Side Risk[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001(4).234～268
[14]Cranfield University.Risk analysis and assessment in network envir-onments[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2004
[15]Deloitte管理咨询公司.供应链管理过程的几个阶段[J].ournal of purchasing and Supply Management,2004
[16]Hallikasa. International supply chain agility[J]. Tradeofs between Flexi-bility and uncertainty,2004(3):139～146
[17]J. Hallikas. Karvonen, Risk management Processes in supplier networks, 2002(4):235～289
[18]HarlandC, BrencheleyH, WalkerH.. Risk in supply network [J]. Journal of purchasing and Supply Management,2003(01):452～477
[19]Richard. risk and vulnerability in frequency space[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2003(4):241～263
[20]A. Nagurney. Risk analysis and assessment in network environments [J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2004(3):307～321
[21]杨红芬,吕安洪,李琪.供应链管理中的信息风险及对策分析[J].商业经济与管理,2002(4)：37～41
[22]傅少川,张文杰,施先亮.供应链信息风险的形成机理和防范对策[J].中国安全科学学报,2004(2)：26～32
[23]张曦.基于委托代理理论的供应链道德风险防范研究[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版),2006(4)：33～39
[24]HAUSERC. Managing Risk to Avoid Supply-Chain Breakdown [J]. MIT. Sloam Management Review,2004(2):146～183
[25]易海燕.基于SCOR模型的供应链风险及其防范[J].商场现代化,2007(4)：22～27
[26]杜鹏.供应链的风险及分配模型[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2002(4)：31～35
[27]张存缘.供应链企业间的委托代理问题及道德风险的防范[J].管理世界2003(6),66～78
[28]党夏宁.供应链风险因素的分析与防范[J].管理百科,2003,12(5)：1～8
[29]丁伟东.刘凯,贺国先.供应链风险研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2003(9),44～45
[30]许志端.合作型供应链的协调和激励机制研究[J].系统工程,2002(7),65～77
[31]解琨、刘凯、周双贵.供应链战略联盟的风险问题研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2003(09),19～22
[32]周艳菊,邱莞华,王宗润.供应链风险管理研究进展的综述与分析[J].系统工程,2006,24(3)：33～42
[33]Pater, Biehl M, Smith M A.International supply chain agility[J].Tr-adeofs between flexibility and uncertainty, International Journal of opera-tions and Production Management,2001 (22):126～222
[34]Hallikas. Fuzzy QFD for supply chain management[J].Engineering and System Safety,2001.4(1):44～67
[35]丁伟东.供应链风险评估研究.中国安全科学学报[J],2005,(04)：29～33
[36]付玉.供应链风险的定量估计.系统工程学报[J],2003(4)：33～38
[37]刘冬林和王春香.供应链多风险组合的综合评估及风险管理[J].武汉理工大学学报,2004(4)：38～42
[38]舒良友和方芳.基于供应链的制造商合作伙伴风险评估研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2007(3)：66～69
[39]周南洋.上市公司供应链风险评估CVaR模型[J].湖南工业大学学报,2008(4)：12～14
[40]Smelzer&Siferd. An Empirically-based and More Fine-grained Investiga-tion into Supply Chain Risks[J]. Journal of Finance,2004(48):1101～ 1122
[41]Zsidisin. A Grounded Definition of Supply Risk[J]. The Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management,2003(26):367～409
[42]Lonsdale C Effectively Managing Vertical Supply Relationships:A Risk of identification and Prevention of the Information Risk of Supply Chain,1999(41):121～141
[43]Svensson. Supply chain management:strategy, Planning, and Operation, 2000(22):78～89
[44]Johnson. Eaming from Toys:Lessons in Managing Supply Chain Risk from the Toy Industry [J]. California Management Review,2001(44):113～166
[45]Sheffi&Yossi. SHEFF I Y. Supply ChainManagement under the Threat of International Terrorism[M].The International Journal of Logistics Management,2001 (34):147～165
[46]MarthaJ, Subbakrishna S. Targeting a just-in-case supply chain for the inevitable next disaster[J]. Supply Chain ManagementReview, 2002(22):244～265
[47]Kleindoffe. KleindofferP. R., Saad G. H. Managing disruption risks in supply chains [J]. Produetion and Operations Management,2005 (13):84～ 98
[48]ChoPra S., Reinhardt G, Mohan U. The importance of decoupling recurrent and disruption risks in a supply chain[M]. WbrkingPaPer:Northwestern University,2005,21 (6):75～96
[49]Ziegenbein. Defining supply risk:Agrounded theory approach Proceedin-gs from the Decision Sciences Institute AnnualMeeting[J], San Diego, CA,2004,17(5):88～101
[50]protiviti. Supply chain logisties risks:From the back room to the boardroom[J]. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management,2004(4),225～236
[51]HARLAND C, BRENCHLEY R, WALKER H. Risk in Supply Networks [J]. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management,2003(40):125～138
[52]Ritehie. B, BrindleyC., MorrisJ., PeetS. Managing risk within the supply chain [J]. Paper Presented at the 9th International IPSERA conferenee Qntario,2000(4):386～405
[53]Bichler, Kaukal. Multi-Attribute Procurement Auction Theory and Appli-Cation[M]. A Review with Comments,2005(5):125～147
[54]Supply Chain planet. Building the resilientsupply chain [J]. Internat-ional Journal of Logisties Management,2003(4):136～145
[55]马林,沈祖志.中小企业供应链管理的汇率风险决策分析[J].大连理工大学学报(社会科学版),2004.4(1)：29～33
[56]watts. Managing risk in the supply chain[J]. The University of Technology,1993 (4):112～145
[57]Dose, Tend. Creating a just-in-ease supply chain for the inevitable next disaster [J]. Management Journal,2005(4):59～64
[58]Ring, DevenDaveLuton. Inventory Accuracy:An overlooked component of s-upply chain reliability[J]. Materials Management and Distribution, 2004(5):388～396
[59]张喜征：企业供应链危机与经营风险[J].技术经济,2002(4)：33～36
[60]孙成双,王要武.基于多Agent技术的工程项目风险管理系统构架[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2005(9)：21～23
[61]钱芝网.供应链管理中的不确定因素及其应对策略[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2005,7(3)：11～15
[2]Martin Christopher. Logistics And Supply Chain Management [J]. Workforce Management,1994.101～121
[3]Stevens. Supply chain management:strategy, Planning and Operation[J]. S-loan Management Review,2001.283～334
[4]Evens. Managing risk within the supply chain[J]. The International J-ournal of Logistics Management,2000,6(2):23～27
[5]Harrison. Identifying and managing supply chain vunerability[J]. Log-isties and Transport Focus,2002,15(3):101～110
[6]Wendell. arlandC, Risk in supply network[J]. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management,2003, (2):134～169
[7]马士华,林勇,陈志祥.供应链管理[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2000.156～162
[8]Cranfield Management School. Supply chain vulnerability[M]. Cranfield University,2002, (3):246～261
[9]Deloftte. risks from breaking organizations[M], Supply chains 2004, (3) :66～78
[10]韩东东,施国洪,马汉武.供应链管理中的风险防范[J].工业工程,2002,(2)：15～19
[11]张存禄、杨俊.数据挖掘在供应链风险控制中的应用研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2004,(6)：142～149
[12]倪燕翎.面向供应链管理的业务流程重组[J].物流技术,2003,(4)：67～89
[13]Lindroth. Supply Chain Networks, Electronic Commerce and Supply Side and Demand Side Risk[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001(4).234～268
[14]Cranfield University.Risk analysis and assessment in network envir-onments[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2004
[15]Deloitte管理咨询公司.供应链管理过程的几个阶段[J].ournal of purchasing and Supply Management,2004
[16]Hallikasa. International supply chain agility[J]. Tradeofs between Flexi-bility and uncertainty,2004(3):139～146
[17]J. Hallikas. Karvonen, Risk management Processes in supplier networks, 2002(4):235～289
[18]HarlandC, BrencheleyH, WalkerH.. Risk in supply network [J]. Journal of purchasing and Supply Management,2003(01):452～477
[19]Richard. risk and vulnerability in frequency space[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2003(4):241～263
[20]A. Nagurney. Risk analysis and assessment in network environments [J]. International Journal of Production Economics,2004(3):307～321
[21]杨红芬,吕安洪,李琪.供应链管理中的信息风险及对策分析[J].商业经济与管理,2002(4)：37～41
[22]傅少川,张文杰,施先亮.供应链信息风险的形成机理和防范对策[J].中国安全科学学报,2004(2)：26～32
[23]张曦.基于委托代理理论的供应链道德风险防范研究[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版),2006(4)：33～39
[24]HAUSERC. Managing Risk to Avoid Supply-Chain Breakdown [J]. MIT. Sloam Management Review,2004(2):146～183
[25]易海燕.基于SCOR模型的供应链风险及其防范[J].商场现代化,2007(4)：22～27
[26]杜鹏.供应链的风险及分配模型[J].内蒙古科技与经济,2002(4)：31～35
[27]张存缘.供应链企业间的委托代理问题及道德风险的防范[J].管理世界2003(6),66～78
[28]党夏宁.供应链风险因素的分析与防范[J].管理百科,2003,12(5)：1～8
[29]丁伟东.刘凯,贺国先.供应链风险研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2003(9),44～45
[30]许志端.合作型供应链的协调和激励机制研究[J].系统工程,2002(7),65～77
[31]解琨、刘凯、周双贵.供应链战略联盟的风险问题研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2003(09),19～22
[32]周艳菊,邱莞华,王宗润.供应链风险管理研究进展的综述与分析[J].系统工程,2006,24(3)：33～42
[33]Pater, Biehl M, Smith M A.International supply chain agility[J].Tr-adeofs between flexibility and uncertainty, International Journal of opera-tions and Production Management,2001 (22):126～222
[34]Hallikas. Fuzzy QFD for supply chain management[J].Engineering and System Safety,2001.4(1):44～67
[35]丁伟东.供应链风险评估研究.中国安全科学学报[J],2005,(04)：29～33
[36]付玉.供应链风险的定量估计.系统工程学报[J],2003(4)：33～38
[37]刘冬林和王春香.供应链多风险组合的综合评估及风险管理[J].武汉理工大学学报,2004(4)：38～42
[38]舒良友和方芳.基于供应链的制造商合作伙伴风险评估研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2007(3)：66～69
[39]周南洋.上市公司供应链风险评估CVaR模型[J].湖南工业大学学报,2008(4)：12～14
[40]Smelzer&Siferd. An Empirically-based and More Fine-grained Investiga-tion into Supply Chain Risks[J]. Journal of Finance,2004(48):1101～ 1122
[41]Zsidisin. A Grounded Definition of Supply Risk[J]. The Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management,2003(26):367～409
[42]Lonsdale C Effectively Managing Vertical Supply Relationships:A Risk of identification and Prevention of the Information Risk of Supply Chain,1999(41):121～141
[43]Svensson. Supply chain management:strategy, Planning, and Operation, 2000(22):78～89
[44]Johnson. Eaming from Toys:Lessons in Managing Supply Chain Risk from the Toy Industry [J]. California Management Review,2001(44):113～166
[45]Sheffi&Yossi. SHEFF I Y. Supply ChainManagement under the Threat of International Terrorism[M].The International Journal of Logistics Management,2001 (34):147～165
[46]MarthaJ, Subbakrishna S. Targeting a just-in-case supply chain for the inevitable next disaster[J]. Supply Chain ManagementReview, 2002(22):244～265
[47]Kleindoffe. KleindofferP. R., Saad G. H. Managing disruption risks in supply chains [J]. Produetion and Operations Management,2005 (13):84～ 98
[48]ChoPra S., Reinhardt G, Mohan U. The importance of decoupling recurrent and disruption risks in a supply chain[M]. WbrkingPaPer:Northwestern University,2005,21 (6):75～96
[49]Ziegenbein. Defining supply risk:Agrounded theory approach Proceedin-gs from the Decision Sciences Institute AnnualMeeting[J], San Diego, CA,2004,17(5):88～101
[50]protiviti. Supply chain logisties risks:From the back room to the boardroom[J]. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management,2004(4),225～236
[51]HARLAND C, BRENCHLEY R, WALKER H. Risk in Supply Networks [J]. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management,2003(40):125～138
[52]Ritehie. B, BrindleyC., MorrisJ., PeetS. Managing risk within the supply chain [J]. Paper Presented at the 9th International IPSERA conferenee Qntario,2000(4):386～405
[53]Bichler, Kaukal. Multi-Attribute Procurement Auction Theory and Appli-Cation[M]. A Review with Comments,2005(5):125～147
[54]Supply Chain planet. Building the resilientsupply chain [J]. Internat-ional Journal of Logisties Management,2003(4):136～145
[55]马林,沈祖志.中小企业供应链管理的汇率风险决策分析[J].大连理工大学学报(社会科学版),2004.4(1)：29～33
[56]watts. Managing risk in the supply chain[J]. The University of Technology,1993 (4):112～145
[57]Dose, Tend. Creating a just-in-ease supply chain for the inevitable next disaster [J]. Management Journal,2005(4):59～64
[58]Ring, DevenDaveLuton. Inventory Accuracy:An overlooked component of s-upply chain reliability[J]. Materials Management and Distribution, 2004(5):388～396
[59]张喜征：企业供应链危机与经营风险[J].技术经济,2002(4)：33～36
[60]孙成双,王要武.基于多Agent技术的工程项目风险管理系统构架[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报,2005(9)：21～23
[61]钱芝网.供应链管理中的不确定因素及其应对策略[J].郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2005,7(3)：11～15