风电接入带来的不确定性研究
摘要
风能的大规模开发有助于解决目前面临的能源枯竭和环境污染等问题。受风力资源随机变化的影响,风电存在不确定性。对于电力系统,风电始终是一种不可控电源,其并网运行问题已成为制约其发展的最重要因素。风电接入带来的不确定性,对电力系统的安全性与充裕性都构成挑战。随着气候、环境因素与系统安全性和充裕性的关联程度增大,如何扩展时空停电防御框架的功能与应用来应对风电的不确定性,就成为一个迫切需要解决的重要问题。
风电系统除负荷和故障等外部不确定因素外,还存在内部不确定性。内部不确定性既包括风自身的不确定性(波动性、间歇性以及两者所具有的高度随机性),还包括风力发电过程中带入的不确定性。本文对比分析波动性和间歇性的成因、特性以及短时间风功率不确定性的描述方法。分析风电不确定性对系统功角、电压、频率、充裕性等的影响及其机理。
从发电侧、电网侧及需求侧分别讨论其应对措施,策略的优化及协调；强调量化和风险分析方法在研究大规模风电接入对电力系统的影响中的重要性。发电侧加强超短期预测、风电场有功／无功综合控制及与其他电源互补等。电网侧优化电网结构、合理调度及增强电网的抗扰动能力,强化电网连接发电侧和需求侧的纽带作用,共同应对风电不确定性。需求侧利用需求侧管理、分布式发电及电动汽车等措施对电力负荷削峰填谷。风电不确定性不是某一层面或某一措施可以单独解决的,需要从发输用三方面对风电不确定性带来的运行风险进行预警与综合防御。
安全性方面,需要考虑电网运行与风电场的交互影响：一方面要在三道防线中综合考虑风电接入影响；另一方面要分析电网故障对风电场稳定性的影响。分析风电接入后系统的暂态电压稳定和暂态功角稳定,并评估其风险。首先比较感应发电机和感应电动机的暂态电压稳定特性；对应于感应电动机的暂态电压稳定判据,提出感应发电机的暂态电压稳定判据及相应的稳定裕度定义。其中综合考虑了节点电压和转子转速的影响,合理设计了多判据的执行流程,以保证远离临界条件时的快速性及接近临界条件时的准确性。用反复仿真试探到的暂态电压稳定的故障临界切除时间作为标准,考核基于上述稳定裕度的灵敏度分析算法。其次,基于暂态电压稳定量化分析技术,计算暂态电压稳定域,并评估暂态电压失稳风险。
充裕性方面,需要定量的评估控制场景的概率水平,实现风电的动态概率预报；扩展不同风险水平的控制手段,如冷、热、旋转备用,实现多时间尺度的控制协调。只有这样,才可能将风电的不确定性导致的备用成本降低到合理水平,真正实现节能减排。本文分析充裕控制中风功率预测信息的时空信息的挖掘。指出依赖单一备用手段和短时间优化旋转备用都存在很大的局限性,并分析多等级备用(含弃风控制)协调优化的重要性和优越性。在此基础上,基于风险观点,从多时间尺度实现多等级备用的协调优化,实现自适应充裕性控制；在开放的市场环境下,分析备用容量和备用价格对充裕控制的影响。
本课题受国家自然科学基金重点项目(91024028),863项目(2011AA05A105),国家电网公司科技项目(SG10&SG11),香港RGC Grant (5151/10E)和澳大利亚ARC (DP120101345)资助,是广域监测分析保护控制系统(WARMAP)的进一步研究。通过在工程应用中不断完善,扩展WARMAP功能和应用,必将为风电系统的可靠性研究提供实用的分析工具。
The large-scale development of wind energy will contribute to solve the current problems about energy depletion and environmental pollution. Due to the random variation of wind resources, wind power is uncertain and performs uncontroliability in a power system. Thus, the issues caused by grid-connected wind farms become the biggest constraints. Uncertainty caused by wind power integration into power system, poses a challenge to security and adequacy of the power system. With the increase of the relevance of between climate, environmental factors and security and adequacy of power system, how to extend the function and application of space-time blackout defense framework to deal with the uncertainty of wind power has become an important and urgent problem.
In addition to the external uncertainties such as load and failure, internal uncertainties also exist in a wind power system. Internal uncertainties are composed of the ones caused by wind itself such as fluctuation, intermittence, and randomness and by wind power generation process. The factors and features of fluctuation and intermittence, and descriptions of uncertaintyies of the short time wind power, are analyzed comparatively. The impacts of wind power uncertainty on frequency, voltage, angle and adequacy etc., and their mechanism, are also analysed.
Response measures, strategy optimization and coordination are discussed from the generation side, grid and demand side, respectively. The importance of quantitative and risk analysis methods in the large-scale wind power integration into power system, is stressed. The ultra-short-term forecast, the wind farm active/reactive power control and complementary with other power are strengthened in the generation side. In the grid side, optimization of the grid structure, rational electric power dispatch management, and enhancement of anti-disturbance ability of the grid, strengthen the link role of generation side and demand-side to jointly cope with the uncertainty of wind power. Demand side management, distributed generation, electric vehicles and other measures are used for peak load shifting. The issues of the wind power uncertainties can not be solved in a level or a measure alone. Early warning and comprehensive defense against operational risks due to uncertainty of wind power need to be jointly coped with from generation side, grid side and demand side.
In terms of security, the interaction of grid operation and wind farms need to be considered for security. On the one hand, the impacts caused by wind power integration are considered in the three lines of defense. On the other hand, the impacts of power network failures on the stability of the wind farm are analysed. Transient voltage stability and transient angle stability of wind power system are analysed, and their risks are assessed. First, the similarities and differences of induction generator and induction motor in transient voltage stability are compared. Transient voltage stability criterions and stability margin definition of induction generators are proposed, corresponding to transient voltage stability criterions of induction motors. The impacts on transient voltage stability of both node voltage and rotor speed are comprehensively considered. A multi-criteria assessment process is designed to speed up the evaluation for cases far away from the critical condition, and to ensure the accuracy for the cases close to the critical condition. Sensitivity analysis is performed based on the fault critical clearing time obtained through trial-and-error based on full scale time domain simulations. Second, transient voltage stability domains are calculated based on quantitative analysis techniques of transient voltage stability. Then transient voltage instability risks are assessed.
The research on adequacy includes quantitative assessment of the probability level of control scene, achievement of dynamic probabilistic forecasts of wind power, expansion of the different levels of risk control measures(such as cold, heat, spinning reserve), coordinated control of multiple time scales and development of different control methods to achieve the coordination of control before and after the wind power disturbance events. Only in this way, reserve costs caused by the uncertainty of wind power may be reduced to a reasonable level, and energy conservation can be truly achieved. Temporal and spatial information mining for wind power prediction data are analysed. There are significant limitations about optimizating the spinning reserve on a single reserve mode or in short term. The importance and superiority of coordination and optimization of multi-grade reserves (including abandoned wind power control) are emphasized. From a risk point of view, multi-grade reserves are coordinated and optimizated in multiple time scales for adaptive adequacy control. The impacts of reserve capacity and reserve prices on adequacy control in the open market environment are analysed.
This work is jointly supported by National Science Foundation of China (No.91024028), State863Project (No.2011AA05A105),. State Grid Corporation of China (No. SG10&SG11), Hong Kong RGC Grant (5151/10E), and Australia ARC (DP120101345).
风电系统除负荷和故障等外部不确定因素外,还存在内部不确定性。内部不确定性既包括风自身的不确定性(波动性、间歇性以及两者所具有的高度随机性),还包括风力发电过程中带入的不确定性。本文对比分析波动性和间歇性的成因、特性以及短时间风功率不确定性的描述方法。分析风电不确定性对系统功角、电压、频率、充裕性等的影响及其机理。
从发电侧、电网侧及需求侧分别讨论其应对措施,策略的优化及协调；强调量化和风险分析方法在研究大规模风电接入对电力系统的影响中的重要性。发电侧加强超短期预测、风电场有功／无功综合控制及与其他电源互补等。电网侧优化电网结构、合理调度及增强电网的抗扰动能力,强化电网连接发电侧和需求侧的纽带作用,共同应对风电不确定性。需求侧利用需求侧管理、分布式发电及电动汽车等措施对电力负荷削峰填谷。风电不确定性不是某一层面或某一措施可以单独解决的,需要从发输用三方面对风电不确定性带来的运行风险进行预警与综合防御。
安全性方面,需要考虑电网运行与风电场的交互影响：一方面要在三道防线中综合考虑风电接入影响；另一方面要分析电网故障对风电场稳定性的影响。分析风电接入后系统的暂态电压稳定和暂态功角稳定,并评估其风险。首先比较感应发电机和感应电动机的暂态电压稳定特性；对应于感应电动机的暂态电压稳定判据,提出感应发电机的暂态电压稳定判据及相应的稳定裕度定义。其中综合考虑了节点电压和转子转速的影响,合理设计了多判据的执行流程,以保证远离临界条件时的快速性及接近临界条件时的准确性。用反复仿真试探到的暂态电压稳定的故障临界切除时间作为标准,考核基于上述稳定裕度的灵敏度分析算法。其次,基于暂态电压稳定量化分析技术,计算暂态电压稳定域,并评估暂态电压失稳风险。
充裕性方面,需要定量的评估控制场景的概率水平,实现风电的动态概率预报；扩展不同风险水平的控制手段,如冷、热、旋转备用,实现多时间尺度的控制协调。只有这样,才可能将风电的不确定性导致的备用成本降低到合理水平,真正实现节能减排。本文分析充裕控制中风功率预测信息的时空信息的挖掘。指出依赖单一备用手段和短时间优化旋转备用都存在很大的局限性,并分析多等级备用(含弃风控制)协调优化的重要性和优越性。在此基础上,基于风险观点,从多时间尺度实现多等级备用的协调优化,实现自适应充裕性控制；在开放的市场环境下,分析备用容量和备用价格对充裕控制的影响。
本课题受国家自然科学基金重点项目(91024028),863项目(2011AA05A105),国家电网公司科技项目(SG10&SG11),香港RGC Grant (5151/10E)和澳大利亚ARC (DP120101345)资助,是广域监测分析保护控制系统(WARMAP)的进一步研究。通过在工程应用中不断完善,扩展WARMAP功能和应用,必将为风电系统的可靠性研究提供实用的分析工具。
The large-scale development of wind energy will contribute to solve the current problems about energy depletion and environmental pollution. Due to the random variation of wind resources, wind power is uncertain and performs uncontroliability in a power system. Thus, the issues caused by grid-connected wind farms become the biggest constraints. Uncertainty caused by wind power integration into power system, poses a challenge to security and adequacy of the power system. With the increase of the relevance of between climate, environmental factors and security and adequacy of power system, how to extend the function and application of space-time blackout defense framework to deal with the uncertainty of wind power has become an important and urgent problem.
In addition to the external uncertainties such as load and failure, internal uncertainties also exist in a wind power system. Internal uncertainties are composed of the ones caused by wind itself such as fluctuation, intermittence, and randomness and by wind power generation process. The factors and features of fluctuation and intermittence, and descriptions of uncertaintyies of the short time wind power, are analyzed comparatively. The impacts of wind power uncertainty on frequency, voltage, angle and adequacy etc., and their mechanism, are also analysed.
Response measures, strategy optimization and coordination are discussed from the generation side, grid and demand side, respectively. The importance of quantitative and risk analysis methods in the large-scale wind power integration into power system, is stressed. The ultra-short-term forecast, the wind farm active/reactive power control and complementary with other power are strengthened in the generation side. In the grid side, optimization of the grid structure, rational electric power dispatch management, and enhancement of anti-disturbance ability of the grid, strengthen the link role of generation side and demand-side to jointly cope with the uncertainty of wind power. Demand side management, distributed generation, electric vehicles and other measures are used for peak load shifting. The issues of the wind power uncertainties can not be solved in a level or a measure alone. Early warning and comprehensive defense against operational risks due to uncertainty of wind power need to be jointly coped with from generation side, grid side and demand side.
In terms of security, the interaction of grid operation and wind farms need to be considered for security. On the one hand, the impacts caused by wind power integration are considered in the three lines of defense. On the other hand, the impacts of power network failures on the stability of the wind farm are analysed. Transient voltage stability and transient angle stability of wind power system are analysed, and their risks are assessed. First, the similarities and differences of induction generator and induction motor in transient voltage stability are compared. Transient voltage stability criterions and stability margin definition of induction generators are proposed, corresponding to transient voltage stability criterions of induction motors. The impacts on transient voltage stability of both node voltage and rotor speed are comprehensively considered. A multi-criteria assessment process is designed to speed up the evaluation for cases far away from the critical condition, and to ensure the accuracy for the cases close to the critical condition. Sensitivity analysis is performed based on the fault critical clearing time obtained through trial-and-error based on full scale time domain simulations. Second, transient voltage stability domains are calculated based on quantitative analysis techniques of transient voltage stability. Then transient voltage instability risks are assessed.
The research on adequacy includes quantitative assessment of the probability level of control scene, achievement of dynamic probabilistic forecasts of wind power, expansion of the different levels of risk control measures(such as cold, heat, spinning reserve), coordinated control of multiple time scales and development of different control methods to achieve the coordination of control before and after the wind power disturbance events. Only in this way, reserve costs caused by the uncertainty of wind power may be reduced to a reasonable level, and energy conservation can be truly achieved. Temporal and spatial information mining for wind power prediction data are analysed. There are significant limitations about optimizating the spinning reserve on a single reserve mode or in short term. The importance and superiority of coordination and optimization of multi-grade reserves (including abandoned wind power control) are emphasized. From a risk point of view, multi-grade reserves are coordinated and optimizated in multiple time scales for adaptive adequacy control. The impacts of reserve capacity and reserve prices on adequacy control in the open market environment are analysed.
This work is jointly supported by National Science Foundation of China (No.91024028), State863Project (No.2011AA05A105),. State Grid Corporation of China (No. SG10&SG11), Hong Kong RGC Grant (5151/10E), and Australia ARC (DP120101345).
引文
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