气候变化对开都河出山径流量影响分析
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摘要
开都河是流入焉耆盆地最大的河流,河流流经和静、焉耆和博湖三县,归宿于博湖,是流域内工农业生产用水、城镇居民生活用水的重要来源。开都河是唯一能常年补给博斯腾湖的河流,湖水水位变化主要受开都河来水量影响。研究开都河的径流量变化对气候响应,对于预测未来的径流变化规律,具有重要的意义。
本文通过对开都河出上游巴音布鲁克气象站的气候要素以及大山口出山年径流量的变化分析,阐述了近40年来巴音布鲁克的气温,降水与大山口站径流量的变化趋势和季节分布特征。研究结果表明:巴音布鲁克地区的气温,冬季和全年平均气温均无明显升高,而夏季平均气温升幅较大;对降水量而言,夏季是巴音布鲁克降水的主要季节,占全年的67.9%;20世纪80年代中期降水偏低,之后降水呈逐步增加趋势;开都河的径流量自1987年后呈现逐步增加趋势,与巴音布鲁克的年降水量和年平均气温存在良好的正相关关系。气候的变化直接影响着开都河年径流量的变化。
Kaidu river is the largest river which flows into Yanqi Basin, the river flows through Hejing、Yanqi and Bohu,and last flows into Bosten Lake. Kaidu river is the important industrial、agricultural production and urban residents living water source in it flow area. Kai River is the only perennial river supplies Bosten Lake, so Bosten Lake water changes are a major impact on water of kaidu. The People who lives in the southern border region their development of economic and life are seriously depends on the support of the Bosten Lake, research on a river of runoff has a vital importance for response of climate change and Projection of future changes of runoff. As the lower reaches of the river have a greater impact on people, so select source runoff of Dashankou Hydrological Station as a study.
In this paper, are off to the upper reaches of the river Bayinbuluke elements of the climate and source runoff of Da Shankou runoff in analysis, research to the recent 40 years Bayinbuluke of temperature, precipitation and runoff of the Da Shankou Station changes and in the distribution of season. The results showed that Bayinbuluke neither winter nor annual average temperature has no significantly increased trend, but a higher rate of warming in summer. The 67.9 percent of rainfall in Summer, it is the main season of rainfall in Bayinbuluke. The mid-1980s is a period of at least precipitation ,and then began to gradually increase; since 1987 the runoff of Kaidu river is gradual increase ,it during to the good corresponding relationship existing between the average annual rainfall and average temperature in Bayinbuluke. the Climate changes have a direct impact on the river in a runoff changes.
本文通过对开都河出上游巴音布鲁克气象站的气候要素以及大山口出山年径流量的变化分析,阐述了近40年来巴音布鲁克的气温,降水与大山口站径流量的变化趋势和季节分布特征。研究结果表明:巴音布鲁克地区的气温,冬季和全年平均气温均无明显升高,而夏季平均气温升幅较大;对降水量而言,夏季是巴音布鲁克降水的主要季节,占全年的67.9%;20世纪80年代中期降水偏低,之后降水呈逐步增加趋势;开都河的径流量自1987年后呈现逐步增加趋势,与巴音布鲁克的年降水量和年平均气温存在良好的正相关关系。气候的变化直接影响着开都河年径流量的变化。
Kaidu river is the largest river which flows into Yanqi Basin, the river flows through Hejing、Yanqi and Bohu,and last flows into Bosten Lake. Kaidu river is the important industrial、agricultural production and urban residents living water source in it flow area. Kai River is the only perennial river supplies Bosten Lake, so Bosten Lake water changes are a major impact on water of kaidu. The People who lives in the southern border region their development of economic and life are seriously depends on the support of the Bosten Lake, research on a river of runoff has a vital importance for response of climate change and Projection of future changes of runoff. As the lower reaches of the river have a greater impact on people, so select source runoff of Dashankou Hydrological Station as a study.
In this paper, are off to the upper reaches of the river Bayinbuluke elements of the climate and source runoff of Da Shankou runoff in analysis, research to the recent 40 years Bayinbuluke of temperature, precipitation and runoff of the Da Shankou Station changes and in the distribution of season. The results showed that Bayinbuluke neither winter nor annual average temperature has no significantly increased trend, but a higher rate of warming in summer. The 67.9 percent of rainfall in Summer, it is the main season of rainfall in Bayinbuluke. The mid-1980s is a period of at least precipitation ,and then began to gradually increase; since 1987 the runoff of Kaidu river is gradual increase ,it during to the good corresponding relationship existing between the average annual rainfall and average temperature in Bayinbuluke. the Climate changes have a direct impact on the river in a runoff changes.
引文
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[2] 康尔泗,Atsumu Ohmura.天山冰雪消融参数化能量平衡模型[J].地理学报,1994,49(5):467-476.
[3] 康尔泗,程国栋,董增川.中国西北干旱区冰雪水资源与出山径流[M].北京,科学出版社,2002,181-293,
[4] 王金花,康玲玲,于辉,王云璋.气候变化对黄河上游天然径流量的影响分析[J].干旱区地理,2005,28(3):288-291.
[5] 杨青,崔彩霞.气候变化对巴音布鲁克高寒湿地地表水的影响[J].冰川冻土,2005,27(3):397-403.
[6] 张济世, 蓝永超,康尔泗,姚尽忠,陈仁升,蒲瑞丰,王书功. 气候变化对洮河流域水资源的影响[J].中国沙漠 2003,23(3):263-267.
[7] 蓝永超,康尔泗,仵彦卿,张济世,胡兴林,张小军. 气候变化对河西内陆干旱区出山径流的影响[J].冰川冻土,2001,23(3):276-282.
[8] 龚原,袁玉江。新疆北疆气候对地表水资源变化的影响与评估[J].干旱区地理,2000,23(3):207-213.
[9] 陈家琦,王浩,杨小柳.水资源学[M].北京,科学出版社,2000,50-52.
[10] 芮孝芳.水文学原理[M].北京,中国水利水电出版社,2004.
[11] 中国人民解放军 00925 部队.中华人民共和国区域水文地质普查报告-焉耆盆地.1977:46-116.
[12] 钟新才.博斯腾湖水面蒸发的初步研究[J].干旱区地理,1988,11(4):39-44.
[13] 夏军,左其亭,邵民诚.博斯腾湖水资源可持续利用—理论·方法·实践·[M].北京,科学出版社,2003.
[14] 夏军.水文非线形系统理论与方法[M].武汉,武汉大学出版社,2002
[15] Zhao J.F., Nagashima H..A Seasonal Water Balance of the Lake Bosten in Xinjiang, CHINA,J.Japan Soc. Hydro.&. Water Resorce.14(4):267-276.
[16] 赵景峰.中国新疆のボステン湖の水塩収支と湖水循環に関する研究[J].東京水産大学大学院修士论文,1999,1-86
[17] 赵景峰.中国新疆のボステン湖流域水収支に関する研究[J]. 東京水産大学大学院博士论文, 2003,1-159
[18]S.W.Hostetler,P.J.Bartlein,P.U.Clark,E.E.Small&A.M.Solomon.Simulated influences of Lake Agassiz on the climate of central North America 11,000 year ago.Nature 2000,405:334-337.
[19] Small,E.E.,Sloan,L.C.,Hostetler,S.W.&Giorgi,F.Simulating the water balance of the Aral Sea with a coupled regional climate-lake model.J.Geoph Res.1999,104:6583-6602.
[20] 库兹涅佐夫,穆尔扎也夫.博斯腾湖及其将来[J].新疆维吾尔自治区的自然条件论文集,北京,科学出版社,1959.
[21] PezzeyJ. Sustainable development concepts,an economicanalysis. World Bank Environment Paper No.2. World Bank,Washingtou D. C.,1992.
[22] Xia Jun,Wang Zhonggen.Eco-environment quality assessment:a quantifying method and case study in Ning Xia,arid and semi-arid region in China. IAHS Press,Pub.No.272,2001.
[23] 近藤纯正,水文气象学[M].朝仓出版社,1995.
[24] IPCC.Climate change 1995,adaptations and mitigation of climate change. Cambridge University Press,1995.
[25] 多斯塔也夫.巴尔喀什湖流域冰川作用与冰川径流[J].人类活动对亚洲中部水资源和环境的影响及天山积雪资源评价,1996.
[26] Woodward W A ,GH L.Globle warming and the problem of testing for trend in time series date. J Climate,1993,6:953-962.
[27] Change A T C,Foster J L,Hall D K. Microwave snow signatures( 1.5mm to 3 cm) over Alaska. Gold Regions Science and Technology, 1987,13:153-160.
[28] Kouyichirou Takahashi.The calculation method of monthly average temperature,monthly precipitation and evapotranspiration.Synoptics(Japan),1979,26(12):759-763.
[29] 杨针娘.中国冰川水资源[M].兰州,甘肃科学技术出版社,1991.
[30] 叶笃正.地球科学进展、趋势、发展战略研究[M].北京,气象出版社.1992,36-39.
[31] 康尔泗.冰雪水资源和出山口径流量变化及其趋势预测研究(国家\九.五”重点科技攻关项目 96-912-01-02 专题研究报告[R].兰州:中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所, 1999. 258-264
[32] IPCC.Climate Change 2001:Synthesis Report[M].Cam—bridge,England: Cambridge U niversity Press, 2001: 1—397.
[33] 陶辉,王国亚,邵春,宋郁东,邹世平.开都河源区气候变化及径流响应[J].冰川冻土.2006,29(3):413-417
[34] 周聿超:新疆河流水文水资源,新疆科技卫生出版社,1999,19,137 页
[35] 刘录祥,孙其信,王世芸.灰色理论运用于作物新品种综合评估初探[J].中国农业科学.1989,22(3):22-27
[36] 陈永胜,宋立新.多元线性回归建模以及 SPSS 软件求解[J].通化师范学院学报.2007,28(12):8-12
[37] 张学文.新疆气象论文选(2)中的“新疆的水分循环和水分平衡”1962:63-81
[38] 张学文.新疆的水源问题[J],自然杂志,1888,10(8):597-600
[39] 陈志恺等.西北地区水资源配置生态环境建设和可持续发展战略研究[M],科学出版社,2004:86
[40] 新疆百科全书[M],北京,中国大百科全书出版社,2002.
[41] 秦大河,中国西部环境演变评估[M],综合卷,北京:科学出版社,2002.
[42] 杨青,魏文寿.新疆现代气候变化特征及趋势分析[A].气候变化与生态环境讨论研讨会论文集[C].北京:气象出版社,2004:202-209
[43] 李忠勤,韩添丁,井哲帆.乌鲁木齐河源区气候变化和 1 号冰川 40a 观测事实[J].冰川冻土.2003,25(2):117-123
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