基于区域差异的节能减排策略研究
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摘要
自从工业革命以来,人类创造了巨大的物质财富,但是环境的负外部性问题也越来越突出,温室气体排放量的不断增加,从而导致全球气候变暖。全球气候变暖将导致海平面升高、冰川融化、湖泊水位下降等,这将给人类生存带来严重威胁。进入21世纪,全球气候变暖的趋势进一步加剧,减少温室气体的排放量已成为当务之急。在过去几十年里,中国经济实现了快速发展,但经济发展的背后,依赖的是高投入、高排放、低效率的传统工业增长模式。随着经济的快速发展,能源消耗量呈现出急剧增长的趋势,而由此导致向大气中排放的温室气体也越来越多。目前中国的能源消费量和温室气体的排放量均居于世界前列,而且中国仍处于工业化加速发展阶段,温室气体的排放量还将继续增加。如果不采取切实可行的节能减排政策,预计2050年中国能源需求总量将达到67亿吨标准煤,C02的排放量将达到122亿吨。中国要实现到2020年单位GDP的碳排放量在2005年的基础上下降40%—45%的减排目标,就要转变经济发展方式,大力推动节能减排。
本文首先梳理了国内外在节能减排领域取得的研究成果及相关的理论基础,分析了中国的节能减排现状及实施节能减排的必要性。其次,对碳排放影响因素进行实证分析。由于中国不同地区在经济结构、工业化进程、资源禀赋等多方面存在显著的差异性,导致各地区的碳排放情况不同。根据经济发展水平将中国划分为发达地区、较发达地区和欠发达地区三大区域,从三大区域中选取了14个具有代表性的地区,基于各地区1999—2010年的面板数据进行综合分析。文章采用计量分析法对影响碳排放的主要因素进行回归分析,得出各因素对碳排放的贡献系数；运用比较分析法从能源强度、产业结构、人口(城市化比重)等因素进行比较分析,探索导致区域碳排放差异的根本原因。最后,根据上述分析结果以及西方发达国家积累的节能减排经验针对不同的区域提出了相应的节能减排对策。
Since the industrial revolution, human has created enormous material wealth, but the negative external problem of the environment has become increasingly prominent, greenhouse gas emissions continues to increase, leading to global warming. Global warming will lead sea levels to rising, glaciers to melting, the lake water level to declining, this will pose a serious threat to human survival. Entering the twenty-first century, the trend of global warming has further aggravated, reducing greenhouse gas emissions has become a pressing matter of the moment. In the past few decades, the economy of China has achieved rapid development, but the behind of the economic development, depending on the traditional industrial growth mode of the high investment, high emissions, low efficiency. With the rapid development of economy, energy consumption shows the trend of rapid growth, and thus leads to the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere becoming more and more. At present, China's energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are in the forefront of the world, and China is still in industrialized phase of accelerated development, greenhouse gas emissions will continue to increase.If China doesn't take feasible policies of energy-saving and emission reduction. China's total energy demand will reach67tons of standard coal, CO2emissions will reach122tons. In2020,if China achieves the reduction target that the carbon emissions of unit GDP decline40%-45%based on the carbon emissions of2005,China will change the mode of economic development, vigorously promote energy-saving and emission reduction.
This paper first introduces the domestic results achieved in the field of energy-saving emission reduction and the relevant theoretical foundation; analysis the situation of China 's energy-saving emission reduction and the necessity of implement of energy-saving emission reduction.Secondly, makes empirical analysis of factors of the carbon emission, because different regions of China have the remarkable difference in the economic structure, industrialization, resource endowment and other aspects, so the carbon emissions of various regions are different. China is divided into developed areas, the more developed regions and underdeveloped areas according to the differences in the level of economic development, selects14representative regions from three regional, makes analysis based on the panel data of various regions from1999to2010. The paper uses quantitative analysis to make regression analysis on the main factors of carbon emissions, gets the contribution coefficient of the factors on carbon emission,; uses the method of comparative analysis to make ratio analysis from the factors of the energy intensity, industrial structure and the city, explores the root cause of differences of carbon emissions of various regions. Finally, we put forward the corresponding countermeasures to various regions according to the above analysis result and the accumulating experience of western developed countries in energy saving and emission reduction.
本文首先梳理了国内外在节能减排领域取得的研究成果及相关的理论基础,分析了中国的节能减排现状及实施节能减排的必要性。其次,对碳排放影响因素进行实证分析。由于中国不同地区在经济结构、工业化进程、资源禀赋等多方面存在显著的差异性,导致各地区的碳排放情况不同。根据经济发展水平将中国划分为发达地区、较发达地区和欠发达地区三大区域,从三大区域中选取了14个具有代表性的地区,基于各地区1999—2010年的面板数据进行综合分析。文章采用计量分析法对影响碳排放的主要因素进行回归分析,得出各因素对碳排放的贡献系数；运用比较分析法从能源强度、产业结构、人口(城市化比重)等因素进行比较分析,探索导致区域碳排放差异的根本原因。最后,根据上述分析结果以及西方发达国家积累的节能减排经验针对不同的区域提出了相应的节能减排对策。
Since the industrial revolution, human has created enormous material wealth, but the negative external problem of the environment has become increasingly prominent, greenhouse gas emissions continues to increase, leading to global warming. Global warming will lead sea levels to rising, glaciers to melting, the lake water level to declining, this will pose a serious threat to human survival. Entering the twenty-first century, the trend of global warming has further aggravated, reducing greenhouse gas emissions has become a pressing matter of the moment. In the past few decades, the economy of China has achieved rapid development, but the behind of the economic development, depending on the traditional industrial growth mode of the high investment, high emissions, low efficiency. With the rapid development of economy, energy consumption shows the trend of rapid growth, and thus leads to the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere becoming more and more. At present, China's energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are in the forefront of the world, and China is still in industrialized phase of accelerated development, greenhouse gas emissions will continue to increase.If China doesn't take feasible policies of energy-saving and emission reduction. China's total energy demand will reach67tons of standard coal, CO2emissions will reach122tons. In2020,if China achieves the reduction target that the carbon emissions of unit GDP decline40%-45%based on the carbon emissions of2005,China will change the mode of economic development, vigorously promote energy-saving and emission reduction.
This paper first introduces the domestic results achieved in the field of energy-saving emission reduction and the relevant theoretical foundation; analysis the situation of China 's energy-saving emission reduction and the necessity of implement of energy-saving emission reduction.Secondly, makes empirical analysis of factors of the carbon emission, because different regions of China have the remarkable difference in the economic structure, industrialization, resource endowment and other aspects, so the carbon emissions of various regions are different. China is divided into developed areas, the more developed regions and underdeveloped areas according to the differences in the level of economic development, selects14representative regions from three regional, makes analysis based on the panel data of various regions from1999to2010. The paper uses quantitative analysis to make regression analysis on the main factors of carbon emissions, gets the contribution coefficient of the factors on carbon emission,; uses the method of comparative analysis to make ratio analysis from the factors of the energy intensity, industrial structure and the city, explores the root cause of differences of carbon emissions of various regions. Finally, we put forward the corresponding countermeasures to various regions according to the above analysis result and the accumulating experience of western developed countries in energy saving and emission reduction.
引文
[1]Z. X. Zhang.Can China afford to commit itself an emissions cap? An economic and political analysis[J].Energy Economics,2000,(22):587-614.
[2]Wu, YP, Dong.Evaluating Environmental Policy of Beijing[J].Urban Environmental & Urban Ecology,2002,15(2):4-6.
[3]Tone K.A. Slacks-based Measure of Efficiency in Date Envelopment Analysis[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2001,(130):498-509.
[4]冯俊新.经济发展与碳减排分析[J].中国人民大学学报,2010,(2)：11-18.
[5]牛叔文,丁永霞,李怡欣.能源消耗、经济增长和碳排放之间的关联分析——基于亚太八国面板数据的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2010(5)：12-22.
[6]李世祥.中国工业化进程中的能耗特征及能效提升途径[J].中国软科学,2010(7)：23-37.
[7]何建坤,苏明山.应对全球气候变化下的碳生产率分析[J].中国软科学,2009(10)：42-50
[8]Andre Grimaud and Luc Rouge.Non-renewable resources and growth with vertical innovations:optimum, equilibrium and economic policies[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2003,(45):423-453.
[9]庄贵阳,谢来辉.低碳经济重塑国际经济格局[J].理论探讨与争鸣,2009(19)：34-35.
[10]张坤民.发展低碳经济要有紧迫感[J].求是,2009(23)：50-52.
[11]陈文颖,高鹏匕.二氧化碳减排对中国未来GDP增长的影响[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004,44(6)：744-747.
[12]韩可琦,王玉浚.中国能源消费的发展趋势与前景展望[J].中国矿业大学学报,2004(33)：1-5.
[13]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析：1995-2004[J].中国人口资源与环境,2006,16(6)：158-161.
[14]冯相昭,王雪臣,陈红枫.1971—2005年中国CO2排放影响因素分析[J].气候变化研究报告,2008,4(1)：42-47.
[15]吴季松.中国能源消费碳排放变化的因素分解及实证分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(12)：2072-2079.
[16]李艳梅,张雷,程晓凌.中国碳排放变化的因素分解与减排途径分析[J].资源科学,2010,32(2)：218-222.
[17]张雷,黄园浙,李艳梅.中国碳排放区域格局变化与减排途径分析[J].资源科学,2010,32(2)：211-217.
[18]Otavio Mielnik,Jose Goldemberg. The evolution of the carbonization index in developing countries[J]. Energy Policy,1999,(27):307-308.
[19]庄贵阳.中国低碳经济发展的途径和潜力分析[J].国际技术经济研究,2005,8(3)：8-12.
[20]Hu Chuzhi,Huang Xianjin.Characteristics of Carbon Emission in China and Analysis on Its Cause [J].China Population, Resources and Environment,2008,18(3):38-42.
[21]Ramakrishnan Ramanathan.An Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emission in Countries of theMiddle East and North Africa[J].Energy, 2005,30(15):2831-2842.
[22]沈利生.我国对外贸易结构不利于节能减排[J].管理世界,2007(10)：33-38.
[23]贺胜兵,刘友金,周华蓉.我国工业碳强度的空间分布及影响因素研究[J].地域研究与开发,2011,30(4)：1-6.
[24]王俊松,贺灿飞.能源消费、经济增长与中国CO2排放量变化——基于LMDI方法的分解分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(1)：19-23.
[25]任小波,曲建升,张志强.气候变化及其适应与减缓行动的经济学评估——英国斯特恩报告关键内容解析[J].地球科学进展,2007(7)：56-60.
[26]傅京燕,裴前丽.对外贸易对碳排放量的影响及其驱动因素——以广东省为例[J].经贸论坛,2011,27(10)：12-18.
[27]程永凡,马慧瑾,王典.江苏省二氧化碳排放的影响因素分析——基于1998-2007年面板数据的实证分析[J].理论探讨,2011,4：254-258.
[28]王宜虎.山东省碳排放的因素分解实证分析[J].山东财政学院学报.2011,5(115)：90-95.
[29]Yuan F.R.. RICHARDW. Innovative behavior in the workplace:the role of performance and image outcome expectations [J].Academy of Management Journal,2010,53(2):323-342.
[30]Munksgaard,J.K.Pedersen, M.W. Impact of household consumption on CO2 emissions [J].Energy Economics2000,(220):423-440.
[31]黄速建,郭朝先.欧盟发展可再生能源的主要做法及对我国的启示[J].世界经济导刊,2005(8)：35-38.
[32]窦义粟,于丽英.国外节能政策比较及对中国的借鉴[J].节能与环保,2007,(1)：32-36.
[33]张通.英国政府推行节能减排的主要特点及对我国的启示[J].中共中央党校学报,2008,(2)：54-56.
[34]Ram Nidumolu, C.K.. Prahalad, M.R. Why Sustainability Is Now the Key Driver of Innovation [J].harvard business review,2009,87(9):56-64.
[35]熊良琼,吴刚.世界典型国家可再生能源政策比较分析及对我国启示[J].中国能源,2009(6)：251-256.
[36]York R.,Rosa E.A., Dieta T.STIRPAT, IPAT and Impact:Analytic Tools for Unpacking the Driving Forces of Environmental Impacts[J].Ecological Economics,2003,(46):88-94.
[37]P.Zhou,B.W.Ang,K.L.Poh.Slacks-based efficiency measures for modeling environmental performance[J]. Ecological Economics,2006,(60):111-118.
[38]任力.国外发展低碳经济的政策及启示[J].发展研究,2009(2)：23-27.
[39]Doloreux. What we should know about regional systemsof innovation[J]. Technology in Society,2002,24(3):243-263.
[40]雷钊.我国碳排放影响因素分析与减排政策思考[J].财经论坛,2011,16：156-158.
[41]杜婷婷,毛锋,罗锐.中国经济增长与CO2排放演化探析[J].中国人口资源与环境,2007,17(2)：94-99.
[42]张卫东.运用价格手段促进节能减排的实践与思考[J].价格理论与实践,2007(8)：729.
[2]Wu, YP, Dong.Evaluating Environmental Policy of Beijing[J].Urban Environmental & Urban Ecology,2002,15(2):4-6.
[3]Tone K.A. Slacks-based Measure of Efficiency in Date Envelopment Analysis[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2001,(130):498-509.
[4]冯俊新.经济发展与碳减排分析[J].中国人民大学学报,2010,(2)：11-18.
[5]牛叔文,丁永霞,李怡欣.能源消耗、经济增长和碳排放之间的关联分析——基于亚太八国面板数据的实证研究[J].中国软科学,2010(5)：12-22.
[6]李世祥.中国工业化进程中的能耗特征及能效提升途径[J].中国软科学,2010(7)：23-37.
[7]何建坤,苏明山.应对全球气候变化下的碳生产率分析[J].中国软科学,2009(10)：42-50
[8]Andre Grimaud and Luc Rouge.Non-renewable resources and growth with vertical innovations:optimum, equilibrium and economic policies[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2003,(45):423-453.
[9]庄贵阳,谢来辉.低碳经济重塑国际经济格局[J].理论探讨与争鸣,2009(19)：34-35.
[10]张坤民.发展低碳经济要有紧迫感[J].求是,2009(23)：50-52.
[11]陈文颖,高鹏匕.二氧化碳减排对中国未来GDP增长的影响[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004,44(6)：744-747.
[12]韩可琦,王玉浚.中国能源消费的发展趋势与前景展望[J].中国矿业大学学报,2004(33)：1-5.
[13]徐国泉,刘则渊,姜照华.中国碳排放的因素分解模型及实证分析：1995-2004[J].中国人口资源与环境,2006,16(6)：158-161.
[14]冯相昭,王雪臣,陈红枫.1971—2005年中国CO2排放影响因素分析[J].气候变化研究报告,2008,4(1)：42-47.
[15]吴季松.中国能源消费碳排放变化的因素分解及实证分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(12)：2072-2079.
[16]李艳梅,张雷,程晓凌.中国碳排放变化的因素分解与减排途径分析[J].资源科学,2010,32(2)：218-222.
[17]张雷,黄园浙,李艳梅.中国碳排放区域格局变化与减排途径分析[J].资源科学,2010,32(2)：211-217.
[18]Otavio Mielnik,Jose Goldemberg. The evolution of the carbonization index in developing countries[J]. Energy Policy,1999,(27):307-308.
[19]庄贵阳.中国低碳经济发展的途径和潜力分析[J].国际技术经济研究,2005,8(3)：8-12.
[20]Hu Chuzhi,Huang Xianjin.Characteristics of Carbon Emission in China and Analysis on Its Cause [J].China Population, Resources and Environment,2008,18(3):38-42.
[21]Ramakrishnan Ramanathan.An Analysis of Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emission in Countries of theMiddle East and North Africa[J].Energy, 2005,30(15):2831-2842.
[22]沈利生.我国对外贸易结构不利于节能减排[J].管理世界,2007(10)：33-38.
[23]贺胜兵,刘友金,周华蓉.我国工业碳强度的空间分布及影响因素研究[J].地域研究与开发,2011,30(4)：1-6.
[24]王俊松,贺灿飞.能源消费、经济增长与中国CO2排放量变化——基于LMDI方法的分解分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2010,19(1)：19-23.
[25]任小波,曲建升,张志强.气候变化及其适应与减缓行动的经济学评估——英国斯特恩报告关键内容解析[J].地球科学进展,2007(7)：56-60.
[26]傅京燕,裴前丽.对外贸易对碳排放量的影响及其驱动因素——以广东省为例[J].经贸论坛,2011,27(10)：12-18.
[27]程永凡,马慧瑾,王典.江苏省二氧化碳排放的影响因素分析——基于1998-2007年面板数据的实证分析[J].理论探讨,2011,4：254-258.
[28]王宜虎.山东省碳排放的因素分解实证分析[J].山东财政学院学报.2011,5(115)：90-95.
[29]Yuan F.R.. RICHARDW. Innovative behavior in the workplace:the role of performance and image outcome expectations [J].Academy of Management Journal,2010,53(2):323-342.
[30]Munksgaard,J.K.Pedersen, M.W. Impact of household consumption on CO2 emissions [J].Energy Economics2000,(220):423-440.
[31]黄速建,郭朝先.欧盟发展可再生能源的主要做法及对我国的启示[J].世界经济导刊,2005(8)：35-38.
[32]窦义粟,于丽英.国外节能政策比较及对中国的借鉴[J].节能与环保,2007,(1)：32-36.
[33]张通.英国政府推行节能减排的主要特点及对我国的启示[J].中共中央党校学报,2008,(2)：54-56.
[34]Ram Nidumolu, C.K.. Prahalad, M.R. Why Sustainability Is Now the Key Driver of Innovation [J].harvard business review,2009,87(9):56-64.
[35]熊良琼,吴刚.世界典型国家可再生能源政策比较分析及对我国启示[J].中国能源,2009(6)：251-256.
[36]York R.,Rosa E.A., Dieta T.STIRPAT, IPAT and Impact:Analytic Tools for Unpacking the Driving Forces of Environmental Impacts[J].Ecological Economics,2003,(46):88-94.
[37]P.Zhou,B.W.Ang,K.L.Poh.Slacks-based efficiency measures for modeling environmental performance[J]. Ecological Economics,2006,(60):111-118.
[38]任力.国外发展低碳经济的政策及启示[J].发展研究,2009(2)：23-27.
[39]Doloreux. What we should know about regional systemsof innovation[J]. Technology in Society,2002,24(3):243-263.
[40]雷钊.我国碳排放影响因素分析与减排政策思考[J].财经论坛,2011,16：156-158.
[41]杜婷婷,毛锋,罗锐.中国经济增长与CO2排放演化探析[J].中国人口资源与环境,2007,17(2)：94-99.
[42]张卫东.运用价格手段促进节能减排的实践与思考[J].价格理论与实践,2007(8)：729.
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