浙江省低碳经济发展影响因素与综合评价研究
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摘要
20世纪以来,以气候变暖为主要特征的全球气候变化已引起国际社会的广泛关注。我国近年来大力倡导发展低碳经济,以实现经济发展方式转变和建立资源节约型、环境友好型社会。浙江省非常重视低碳经济的发展,并且在优化能源结构、提高能源效率、促进产业结构升级方面取得了一些初步成效,但是低碳经济发展仍然面临巨大的节能减排压力,与我国低碳经济发达地区相比,仍存在不小差距。因此,分析低碳经济发展的主要影响因素,建立一套科学合理的低碳综合评价指标体系,并进行浙江省低碳发展的横向和纵向比较,在此基础上提出有针对性的政策建议,对于客观评价和促进浙江省低碳经济发展具有一定的理论和现实意义。
全文共分为七个章节：第一章是导论部分。主要介绍了论文的研究背景、选题意义、研究思路、研究方法、主要创新点及国内外文献综述；第二章是全文的理论基础,对低碳经济的理论基础、基本概念及其主要影响因素进行了闸述；第三章以浙江省1990-2009年的经济发展和能源消耗排放的二氧化碳数据为基础,从脱钩和倒“U”型曲线关系两个方面考察了浙江省经济发展与碳排放的关系；第四章对低碳经济发展主要影响因素的理论分析基础上,根据碳排放的主要驱动因素,引入单位能耗碳排放量、产业结构、能源消费结构、城市化水平、国际贸易分工等变量,利用扩展的STIRPAT模型对浙江省碳排放主要影响因素进行了实证研究；第五章构建了低碳经济发展综合评价体系,主要包括评价方法、指标构建原则、指标初步设计等环节；第六章在构建的低碳经济综合评价体系的基础上,采用2009年我国各省市的低碳经济相关数据,对低碳经济综合评价体系的指标权重进行赋值,在此基础上计算因子得分。依据得分值对各地区的低碳经济发展水平进行排名,同时理论分析了排名结果,并依据综合评价结果对浙江省的低碳经济发展现状进行了横向和纵向比较；第七章对全文进行了总结,并从低碳能源政策、低碳技术政策、低碳产业政策、低碳消费政策等方面提出向低碳经济转型的关键政策,同时认为发展低碳经济还需要构建政府、企业和社会公众多方合作的低碳经济治理结构,最后进行了研究展望。
通过理论研究和实证分析,得到的基本结论如下：
结论1：影响低碳经济发展的主要因素主要包括人口规模与结构变化、经济发展水平、技术进步、能源消费结构与能源利用效率、单位能耗碳排放量、产业结构、城市化水平和国际贸易分工等方而。
结论2：浙江省1990-2009年问存在弱脱钩和增长连结两种状态,总体上属于弱脱钩状态,且近年来有脱钩弹性值逐渐下降的趋势；通过对浙江省经济发展与碳排放在三个倒“U”型曲线关系的验证,发现浙江省目前处于碳排放强度高峰至人均碳排放量高峰阶段的晚期,并即将达到人均碳排放量的高峰。
结论3：人口、经济发展水平、能源强度、单位能牦碳排放量、能源消费结构变动对碳排放总量、人均碳排放量有显著正向影响。人均GDP增长、人口增长对碳排放总量增长表现为正效应,而能源强度、单位能耗碳排放和城市化率变动表现为负效应；人均GDP增长对人均碳排放的增长表现为显著正效应,而能源强度、单位能耗碳排放、产业结构、能源消费结构和净出口占GDP比重变动表现为负效应。
结论4：从纵向来看,浙江省在经济环境方面,第三产业增长速度较快,但是第二产业仍然占据主导地位；浙江省低碳自然资源禀赋较好,但能源资源贫乏；低碳发展具有良好的政策环境；低碳消费方式得到初步体现,但仍呈现高碳化。能源环境方面,经济发展动力在近期内依然需要能源的拉动,但能源消费结构优化成效初现；浙江省在废水、固体废弃物排放治理方面发展较快,但废弃物的治理和综合利用发展明显滞后。从横向来看,浙江省低碳经济发展水平在全国居于前列,但在与东部主要省市的比较中,与上海、北京等低碳经济发达地区仍存在不少差距。
本文的创新点主要有：
第一,从人口规模及其结构、经济发展水平、产业结构、城市化水平、能源利用效率、能源消费结构、技术进步、国际贸易分工等方而,全面探讨影响一个国家或地区碳排放的主要因素。
第二,以浙江省1990-2009年的经济发展和能源消耗排放的二氧化碳数据为基础,从脱钩和倒“U”型曲线关系两个方面考察了浙江省经济发展与碳排放的关系,明确浙江省低碳经济发展所处的阶段。
第三,根据低碳经济的内涵、碳排放的主要影响因素,借鉴国际上的衡量指标,重点构建了低碳经济评价指标体系。利用该评价体系对2009年我国30个地区的低碳经济发展水平进行了综合评价,根据得分进行排名,并对排名结果进行了理论分析。
Since the20th century, global warming as the main feature of the global climate change has caused widespread international concern. In recent years, China advocate the development of low-carbon economy in order to change the mode of economic development and established resource-saving and environment-friendly society. Zhejiang attached great importance to the development of low-carbon economy, and has made some initial success in optimizing energy structure, improving energy efficiency, promote industrial upgrading, but a low-carbon economy still face enormous pressure to energy saving, and compare to low-carbon economy developed areas in China, there is a big gap. Therefore, making analysis of low-carbon economic development of the main factors, establishing a scientific and reasonable evaluation index system for low-carbon and low carbon development for Zhejiang Province, horizontal and vertical comparison, in this based on the targeted policy recommendations, has some theoretical and practical significance for the objective evaluation and promotion of low-carbon economy on Zhejiang Province.
The text is divided into seven chapters:The Chapter Ⅰ is introductory part. Introduces the research background, topics of significance, research ideas, research methods, the main innovation and international literature review; The Chapter Ⅱ is the theoretical basis of this paper, describe the theoretical basis of low-carbon economy, the basic concept and its main impact factors; The Chapter Ⅲ using the1990-2009years of economic development, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption data in Zhejiang Province. Based on these data, from the decoupling and the inverted "U"-shaped curve relationship describe the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province; Chapter IV based on the main factors affecting the development of low-carbon economy theoretical analysis, based on the key drivers of carbon emissions, energy consumption into carbon emissions, industrial structure, energy consumption structure, urbanization, international trade division of labor variables, using the extended model STIRPAT research the main factors of affecting carbon emissions of Zhejiang Province with an empirical study; Chapter V aim to build a comprehensive evaluation system of low carbon economy, including evaluation methods, indicators of construction principles, indicators and other aspects of the preliminary design; Chapter VI based on the comprehensive evaluation system, using the2009low-carbon economy of China's provinces and cities data, assigned weights for comprehensive evaluation system of low-carbon economy indicators, calculated on the basis of factor scores. Based on the scores of each region to rank the level of low-carbon economy, while theoretical analysis of the ranking results, and based on the results of a comprehensive evaluation of low-carbon economic development of Zhejiang Province, the status of the horizontal and vertical comparison; Chapter VII is the summary of this paper, and from low-carbon energy policy, low-carbon technology policy, industrial policy, low carbon, low-carbon consumer policy and other aspects of the transition to a low carbon economy key policies, and believe that the development of low-carbon economy also requires to build government, business and public multi-partite governance structure of low-carbon economy, and finally the research prospects.
Through theoretical research and empirical analysis, the basic conclusions are as follows:
Conclusion1:Impact of low-carbon economic development of the main factors include changes in population size and structure, level of economic development, technological advances, energy consumption and energy efficiency, carbon emissions, energy consumption, industrial structure, urbanization and international trade division of labor, etc..
Conclusion2:1990-2009, there are weak decoupling between years and growth link two states in Zhejiang Province, separated from the state in general are weak. In recent years, there is a gradual decline trend in the value of flexibility in decoupling; By examining the economic development of Zhejiang Province, and carbon emissions in the three inverted "U" shaped curve relationship. Found in/hejiang Province is currently in the peak intensity of carbon emissions per capita carbon emissions to peak in the late stage of phase, and per capita carbon emissions will soon reach the peak.
Conclusion3:Population, economic development, energy intensity, energy consumption per unit of carbon emissions, energy consumption structure change on carbon emissions, per capita carbon emissions have a significant positive impact. Per capita GDP growth, population growth, growth on carbon emissions showed positive effects, while energy intensity, energy consumption and carbon emissions performance of the negative effects of urbanization changes; per capita GDP growth on the growth of carbon emissions per capita showed a significant positive effect while energy intensity, energy consumption per unit of carbon emissions, industrial structure, energy consumption structure and changes in net exports to GDP showed a negative effect.
Conclusion4:From the vertical perspective, the economic environment in Zhejiang Province, the tertiary industry is in fast growing, but the secondary industry is still dominant; The low-carbon natural resource endowment is good Zhejiang Province, but poor in energy resources; low-carbon development with good policy environment; The way of low-carbon consumption get the initial expression, but still showed high carbonation. Energy environment, economic development momentum in the near future still need energy boost, but the Optimize energy consumption structure has been initially reflected; Zhejiang Province in the waste water, solid waste management area developed rapidly, but in the development of waste management and utilization was lag. From the horizontal point of view, the level of low-carbon economy in Zhejiang Province among the highest in the country, but in comparison with the major provinces and cities as Shanghai, Beijing and other developed areas of low-carbon economy, there are still many gaps.
Innovation of this paper as follows:
First, Fully explore the impact of carbon emissions of a country or region of the main factors from population size and structure, level of economic development, industrial structure, urbanization, energy efficiency, energy consumption structure, technological progress, international trade division of labor, etc.
Second, Using the1990-2009year's data of economic development, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in Zhejiang Province. Based on these data, from the decoupling and the inverted "U"-shaped curve relationship describe the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province, clear the stage of the development of low-carbon economy in Zhejiang.
Third, According to the content of low-carbon economy and the main factors of carbon emissions, draw on the international measure, focusing on building a low carbon economy evaluation index system. Use of the evaluation system, evaluated the comprehensive level of low-carbon economic development of30regions of China in2009, based on rank scores, and Analysis ranking the results with a theoretical analysis.
全文共分为七个章节：第一章是导论部分。主要介绍了论文的研究背景、选题意义、研究思路、研究方法、主要创新点及国内外文献综述；第二章是全文的理论基础,对低碳经济的理论基础、基本概念及其主要影响因素进行了闸述；第三章以浙江省1990-2009年的经济发展和能源消耗排放的二氧化碳数据为基础,从脱钩和倒“U”型曲线关系两个方面考察了浙江省经济发展与碳排放的关系；第四章对低碳经济发展主要影响因素的理论分析基础上,根据碳排放的主要驱动因素,引入单位能耗碳排放量、产业结构、能源消费结构、城市化水平、国际贸易分工等变量,利用扩展的STIRPAT模型对浙江省碳排放主要影响因素进行了实证研究；第五章构建了低碳经济发展综合评价体系,主要包括评价方法、指标构建原则、指标初步设计等环节；第六章在构建的低碳经济综合评价体系的基础上,采用2009年我国各省市的低碳经济相关数据,对低碳经济综合评价体系的指标权重进行赋值,在此基础上计算因子得分。依据得分值对各地区的低碳经济发展水平进行排名,同时理论分析了排名结果,并依据综合评价结果对浙江省的低碳经济发展现状进行了横向和纵向比较；第七章对全文进行了总结,并从低碳能源政策、低碳技术政策、低碳产业政策、低碳消费政策等方面提出向低碳经济转型的关键政策,同时认为发展低碳经济还需要构建政府、企业和社会公众多方合作的低碳经济治理结构,最后进行了研究展望。
通过理论研究和实证分析,得到的基本结论如下：
结论1：影响低碳经济发展的主要因素主要包括人口规模与结构变化、经济发展水平、技术进步、能源消费结构与能源利用效率、单位能耗碳排放量、产业结构、城市化水平和国际贸易分工等方而。
结论2：浙江省1990-2009年问存在弱脱钩和增长连结两种状态,总体上属于弱脱钩状态,且近年来有脱钩弹性值逐渐下降的趋势；通过对浙江省经济发展与碳排放在三个倒“U”型曲线关系的验证,发现浙江省目前处于碳排放强度高峰至人均碳排放量高峰阶段的晚期,并即将达到人均碳排放量的高峰。
结论3：人口、经济发展水平、能源强度、单位能牦碳排放量、能源消费结构变动对碳排放总量、人均碳排放量有显著正向影响。人均GDP增长、人口增长对碳排放总量增长表现为正效应,而能源强度、单位能耗碳排放和城市化率变动表现为负效应；人均GDP增长对人均碳排放的增长表现为显著正效应,而能源强度、单位能耗碳排放、产业结构、能源消费结构和净出口占GDP比重变动表现为负效应。
结论4：从纵向来看,浙江省在经济环境方面,第三产业增长速度较快,但是第二产业仍然占据主导地位；浙江省低碳自然资源禀赋较好,但能源资源贫乏；低碳发展具有良好的政策环境；低碳消费方式得到初步体现,但仍呈现高碳化。能源环境方面,经济发展动力在近期内依然需要能源的拉动,但能源消费结构优化成效初现；浙江省在废水、固体废弃物排放治理方面发展较快,但废弃物的治理和综合利用发展明显滞后。从横向来看,浙江省低碳经济发展水平在全国居于前列,但在与东部主要省市的比较中,与上海、北京等低碳经济发达地区仍存在不少差距。
本文的创新点主要有：
第一,从人口规模及其结构、经济发展水平、产业结构、城市化水平、能源利用效率、能源消费结构、技术进步、国际贸易分工等方而,全面探讨影响一个国家或地区碳排放的主要因素。
第二,以浙江省1990-2009年的经济发展和能源消耗排放的二氧化碳数据为基础,从脱钩和倒“U”型曲线关系两个方面考察了浙江省经济发展与碳排放的关系,明确浙江省低碳经济发展所处的阶段。
第三,根据低碳经济的内涵、碳排放的主要影响因素,借鉴国际上的衡量指标,重点构建了低碳经济评价指标体系。利用该评价体系对2009年我国30个地区的低碳经济发展水平进行了综合评价,根据得分进行排名,并对排名结果进行了理论分析。
Since the20th century, global warming as the main feature of the global climate change has caused widespread international concern. In recent years, China advocate the development of low-carbon economy in order to change the mode of economic development and established resource-saving and environment-friendly society. Zhejiang attached great importance to the development of low-carbon economy, and has made some initial success in optimizing energy structure, improving energy efficiency, promote industrial upgrading, but a low-carbon economy still face enormous pressure to energy saving, and compare to low-carbon economy developed areas in China, there is a big gap. Therefore, making analysis of low-carbon economic development of the main factors, establishing a scientific and reasonable evaluation index system for low-carbon and low carbon development for Zhejiang Province, horizontal and vertical comparison, in this based on the targeted policy recommendations, has some theoretical and practical significance for the objective evaluation and promotion of low-carbon economy on Zhejiang Province.
The text is divided into seven chapters:The Chapter Ⅰ is introductory part. Introduces the research background, topics of significance, research ideas, research methods, the main innovation and international literature review; The Chapter Ⅱ is the theoretical basis of this paper, describe the theoretical basis of low-carbon economy, the basic concept and its main impact factors; The Chapter Ⅲ using the1990-2009years of economic development, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption data in Zhejiang Province. Based on these data, from the decoupling and the inverted "U"-shaped curve relationship describe the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province; Chapter IV based on the main factors affecting the development of low-carbon economy theoretical analysis, based on the key drivers of carbon emissions, energy consumption into carbon emissions, industrial structure, energy consumption structure, urbanization, international trade division of labor variables, using the extended model STIRPAT research the main factors of affecting carbon emissions of Zhejiang Province with an empirical study; Chapter V aim to build a comprehensive evaluation system of low carbon economy, including evaluation methods, indicators of construction principles, indicators and other aspects of the preliminary design; Chapter VI based on the comprehensive evaluation system, using the2009low-carbon economy of China's provinces and cities data, assigned weights for comprehensive evaluation system of low-carbon economy indicators, calculated on the basis of factor scores. Based on the scores of each region to rank the level of low-carbon economy, while theoretical analysis of the ranking results, and based on the results of a comprehensive evaluation of low-carbon economic development of Zhejiang Province, the status of the horizontal and vertical comparison; Chapter VII is the summary of this paper, and from low-carbon energy policy, low-carbon technology policy, industrial policy, low carbon, low-carbon consumer policy and other aspects of the transition to a low carbon economy key policies, and believe that the development of low-carbon economy also requires to build government, business and public multi-partite governance structure of low-carbon economy, and finally the research prospects.
Through theoretical research and empirical analysis, the basic conclusions are as follows:
Conclusion1:Impact of low-carbon economic development of the main factors include changes in population size and structure, level of economic development, technological advances, energy consumption and energy efficiency, carbon emissions, energy consumption, industrial structure, urbanization and international trade division of labor, etc..
Conclusion2:1990-2009, there are weak decoupling between years and growth link two states in Zhejiang Province, separated from the state in general are weak. In recent years, there is a gradual decline trend in the value of flexibility in decoupling; By examining the economic development of Zhejiang Province, and carbon emissions in the three inverted "U" shaped curve relationship. Found in/hejiang Province is currently in the peak intensity of carbon emissions per capita carbon emissions to peak in the late stage of phase, and per capita carbon emissions will soon reach the peak.
Conclusion3:Population, economic development, energy intensity, energy consumption per unit of carbon emissions, energy consumption structure change on carbon emissions, per capita carbon emissions have a significant positive impact. Per capita GDP growth, population growth, growth on carbon emissions showed positive effects, while energy intensity, energy consumption and carbon emissions performance of the negative effects of urbanization changes; per capita GDP growth on the growth of carbon emissions per capita showed a significant positive effect while energy intensity, energy consumption per unit of carbon emissions, industrial structure, energy consumption structure and changes in net exports to GDP showed a negative effect.
Conclusion4:From the vertical perspective, the economic environment in Zhejiang Province, the tertiary industry is in fast growing, but the secondary industry is still dominant; The low-carbon natural resource endowment is good Zhejiang Province, but poor in energy resources; low-carbon development with good policy environment; The way of low-carbon consumption get the initial expression, but still showed high carbonation. Energy environment, economic development momentum in the near future still need energy boost, but the Optimize energy consumption structure has been initially reflected; Zhejiang Province in the waste water, solid waste management area developed rapidly, but in the development of waste management and utilization was lag. From the horizontal point of view, the level of low-carbon economy in Zhejiang Province among the highest in the country, but in comparison with the major provinces and cities as Shanghai, Beijing and other developed areas of low-carbon economy, there are still many gaps.
Innovation of this paper as follows:
First, Fully explore the impact of carbon emissions of a country or region of the main factors from population size and structure, level of economic development, industrial structure, urbanization, energy efficiency, energy consumption structure, technological progress, international trade division of labor, etc.
Second, Using the1990-2009year's data of economic development, carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in Zhejiang Province. Based on these data, from the decoupling and the inverted "U"-shaped curve relationship describe the relationship between economic development and carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province, clear the stage of the development of low-carbon economy in Zhejiang.
Third, According to the content of low-carbon economy and the main factors of carbon emissions, draw on the international measure, focusing on building a low carbon economy evaluation index system. Use of the evaluation system, evaluated the comprehensive level of low-carbon economic development of30regions of China in2009, based on rank scores, and Analysis ranking the results with a theoretical analysis.
引文
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