末次冰期冰盛期和中全新世中国地区气候变化的数值研究
摘要
从地球气候系统长期演变的历史看,20世纪出现的全球变暖现象在过去地球环境变迁的过程中曾出现过。大量的地质研究揭示了过去几万年和数千年来气候变化的事实,它们表明在没有人类活动干预下气候系统经历过巨大的自然变化。这一事实的科学意义就是预测未来气候变化有了可以检验的参照系,并且为探索气候变化的机制和规律提供了事实和参考依据。
古气候数值模拟研究是古气候研究的主要方法之一,用于古气候模拟研究的模式从早期的单一的大气环流模式,到今天大气-海洋-生物圈耦合模式;从平衡态模拟研究到今天模拟千年以上的瞬变变化。目前,末次冰期冰盛期(LGM)和全新世时期古气候研究关注的一些研究热点问题包括:1、在冰期和间冰期中都发生过百年和千年尺度的气候变化,这些变化的机制是什么?2、在冰期气候中,沙尘的输送和冻土的变化以及它们对气候的影响如何?3、在全球古气候和古环境变化的背景下,区域气候是如何响应的?低分辨率的全球模式结果如何与古环境资料比较?特别是降水。
本文主要针对上述的第3个热点问题,利用全球气候模式CCM3嵌套区域模式MM5的方法,比较全面系统和深入地研究了末次冰期冰盛期和中全新世时期中国地区气候变化的机理。本文得到了一些主要结果如下:
●如何评估模式模拟的降水与古环境代用资料是一个难题。目前,一种评估GCM模式局地和区域降水的方法是统计降尺度方法(statisticaldownscaling)。但这种方法存在局限性,因为统计模式是根据现代气候用线性方法来建立大尺度过程与局地变化之间的联系,没有考虑物理和动力过程之间的联系。当气候背景发生变化时,这种联系或相关可能也会发生变化。另一种方法就是全球气候模式嵌套区域模式的方法,这个方法的优点是它根据物理和动力过程的规律进行研究。本文利用该方法研究末次冰期冰盛期和中全新世时期中国地区的气候变化。我们采用的全球和区域模式都比此前研究所用的模式有许多改进。本文的模式结果比此前全球气候模式和利用该方法的模拟工作有改进,特别是,模拟的降水变化与地质记录符合的较好(全球模式模拟的降水变化与地质记录存在较大差异)。这进一步表明:这种嵌套的方法可以用于区域古气候的模拟和区域气候响应研究,是一种很好的方法。
●本文比较全面系统和深入地研究了末次冰期冰盛期和中全新世时期影响中国地区气候变化各因子的作用,研究的影响因子有:地球轨道、CO_2浓度、植被、东亚海-陆分布和大尺度环流背景场的变化。此前的一些有关末次冰期冰盛期和中全新世时期中国地区气候变化的研究主要针对各自关心的影响因子进行研究,如:植被变化等,不够全面和系统。
●在LGM时,北美大陆和北欧地区的冰流吸纳了大量的海水,这造成全球海平面降低,海陆分布发生了显著的变化。本文首次研究了LGM时东亚地区海-陆分布变化对区域气候的影响。结果表明:东亚地区海陆分布的变化造成这一地区在冬季减温,而在夏季增温。同时,该变化对中国东部近海地区的温度和降水产生明显的影响,尤其是对降水的影响。它使得中国东部地区降水减少,由此造成的降水减少占LGM时降水减少的25%-50%。海陆分布的变化对内陆和中国西部地区影响很小。
●本文首次提出夏季风增强并不一定降水增加,降水增加发生在季风增强而产生水汽辐合增加的地区。一般认为中全新世时期我国夏季风增强,而夏季风增强会使得降水增加。但是,一些研究发现这个时期一些地区降水减少,因此提出中全新世时东亚季风出现衰退。本文认为中全新世时期我国夏季风增强,但一些夏季风增强的地区,降水可以出现减少。
●本文利用卫星资料与模式模拟的现代中国地区的云量进行了比较,结果表明模式可以较好地再现现代中国地区中云和高云分布和季节变化的主要特征。在此基础上,本文首次研究了末次冰期冰盛期和中全新世时期中国地区大气中水循环因子的变化。结果表明:中全新世时,相对湿度最大的变化超过15%,不是一个保守量。有些地区温度增加,但是水汽却减少。同时,这也进一步证实了夏季风增强,降水不一定增加。在LGM,在温度降低的区域,水汽一致减少。中国西部地区夏季相对湿度增加,变得潮湿。这说明温度降低导致水汽减少,但温度升高不一定会使得水汽增加。这与全球尺度水汽相对湿度基本保持常数的结果不同。
In the process of the earth environment evolution, the phenomena that global climate becomes warm in 20~(th) Century had happened. A lot of geological researches show climate variations in past several 10 ka. These indicate that under the condition of no anthropogenic disturbance earth climate system practiced magnitude changes. It means that there is the conference for the predication of future climate changes, which can be used to examine the prediction. Moreover, these facts provide basis for exploring the mechanisms of climate changes.
Numerical simulation is one of main methods by which palace-climate are explored. The models that are used to simulate palace-climate are developed from early single general circulation model to update atmosphere-ocean-biosphere coupled model. The model simulations are changing from simulating climate equilibrium to transit variation. At present, some issues in LGM and Holocene are paid more attention, which includes: 1. during glacial age and inter-glacial age, there were the climate change on thousand and hundred years scale. What is the mechanism? 2. During glacial age, how were dust transported? How did tundra change? How did they affect the climate? 3. Under the background of global palace-climate and palace-environment changes, how does regional climate response? How does results of low resolution global model compare with geological records, especially precipitation.
In order to explore above Issue 3, with a regional model MM5 nested to an atmospheric global climate model CCM3, a series of simulations and sensitivity experiments have been performed to investigate relative Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Mid-Holocene (MH) climate response to different mechanisms over China. Some of main results are as follows:·It is one difficult problem that how GCM results compare with geological records. At present, one method by which GCM local and regional precipitations are estimated is statistical downscaling. The statistical model builds relationship between large-scale process and local changes on modern climate with linear mode. However, this method has some shortages, because the relationship between large-scale process and local changes isn't based on physical and dynamical rule, and it may change when climate and environment change. Another method is GCM model nesting regional model, whose merit is that is based on physical and dynamical rules. This thesis adopts this nesting way to investigate climate changes over China in LGM and Mid-Holocene. Comparing with early work, the global and regional models are advanced in this work. Our model results are better than early model results. Our modeled LGM and Mid-Holocene climate change are agreeable with geological records; especially in simulation of precipitation change (GCM results aren't agreeable with geological records). This indicates that GCM model nesting regional model can use to investigate palace-climate and regional climate responses, and this is very good method.
·In this thesis, a series of simulations and sensitivity experiments have been performed to investigate in the round the factors that influence China climate in LGM and Mid-Holocene, which involve earth orbit, CO_2, sea-land distribution, vegetation and large-scale circulation background change. Previous modeled works about climate changes over China in LGM and Mid-Holocene mainly paid attention to the influence factors which are focused, such as vegetation change etc, but these aren't all-around.
·During the LGM, two large ice sheets in North America and Europe causes a lower than PD sea-level in the extent of globe, and greatly alters the sea-land configuration. We first simulate the climate effect of land-sea distribution change in East Asia. Model results indicate that relative to the present climate, the changes of sea-land distribution in eastern Asia during the LGM result in temperature decrease in winter and increase summer. It has significant impact on the temperature and precipitation in the east coastal region of China. The impact on precipitation in the east coastal region of China is the most significant one, with 25-50% decrease in total precipitation change during the LGM. On the other hand, the changes in land-sea distribution have less influence on the climate of inland and western part of China.
·We first suggest that precipitation increases happen in regions where convergences of water vapor enhance, but precipitation mustn't increase though summer monsoon enhances. Generally, it is known that summer monsoon over China enhanced in Mid-Holocene, and the precipitation increased due to enhanced summer monsoon. Some works found that precipitation in some regions decreases in Mid-Holocene, and propounded that summer monsoon appears a time weaken in Mid-Holocene. We think that summer monsoon intensified in Mid-Holocene, but precipitation in some regions may reduce although the summer monsoon enhances. ·In this thesis, comparisons of modeled cloud and satellite cloud data indicate that the model can reproduce main characteristics of middle and high cloud distributions and their season variations under the condition of modern climate. Based on this, we first explore changes of hydrogen cycle components in atmosphere during LGM and Mid-Holocene. The results show that maximum of relative humidity change is more than 15% in Mid-Holocene, which isn't conservative. Water vapor decreases while temperature increases in some region. This further proves that precipitation mustn't increase although summer monsoon enhanced in some regions. In LGM, water vapor decreases while temperature reduces. The relative humidity in summer increases in Western China, which became wet. These indicate that when temperature reduces water vapor decreases, but water vapor mustn't increase as temperature enhances. This is different with results on global scale that relative humidity is conservative.
古气候数值模拟研究是古气候研究的主要方法之一,用于古气候模拟研究的模式从早期的单一的大气环流模式,到今天大气-海洋-生物圈耦合模式;从平衡态模拟研究到今天模拟千年以上的瞬变变化。目前,末次冰期冰盛期(LGM)和全新世时期古气候研究关注的一些研究热点问题包括:1、在冰期和间冰期中都发生过百年和千年尺度的气候变化,这些变化的机制是什么?2、在冰期气候中,沙尘的输送和冻土的变化以及它们对气候的影响如何?3、在全球古气候和古环境变化的背景下,区域气候是如何响应的?低分辨率的全球模式结果如何与古环境资料比较?特别是降水。
本文主要针对上述的第3个热点问题,利用全球气候模式CCM3嵌套区域模式MM5的方法,比较全面系统和深入地研究了末次冰期冰盛期和中全新世时期中国地区气候变化的机理。本文得到了一些主要结果如下:
●如何评估模式模拟的降水与古环境代用资料是一个难题。目前,一种评估GCM模式局地和区域降水的方法是统计降尺度方法(statisticaldownscaling)。但这种方法存在局限性,因为统计模式是根据现代气候用线性方法来建立大尺度过程与局地变化之间的联系,没有考虑物理和动力过程之间的联系。当气候背景发生变化时,这种联系或相关可能也会发生变化。另一种方法就是全球气候模式嵌套区域模式的方法,这个方法的优点是它根据物理和动力过程的规律进行研究。本文利用该方法研究末次冰期冰盛期和中全新世时期中国地区的气候变化。我们采用的全球和区域模式都比此前研究所用的模式有许多改进。本文的模式结果比此前全球气候模式和利用该方法的模拟工作有改进,特别是,模拟的降水变化与地质记录符合的较好(全球模式模拟的降水变化与地质记录存在较大差异)。这进一步表明:这种嵌套的方法可以用于区域古气候的模拟和区域气候响应研究,是一种很好的方法。
●本文比较全面系统和深入地研究了末次冰期冰盛期和中全新世时期影响中国地区气候变化各因子的作用,研究的影响因子有:地球轨道、CO_2浓度、植被、东亚海-陆分布和大尺度环流背景场的变化。此前的一些有关末次冰期冰盛期和中全新世时期中国地区气候变化的研究主要针对各自关心的影响因子进行研究,如:植被变化等,不够全面和系统。
●在LGM时,北美大陆和北欧地区的冰流吸纳了大量的海水,这造成全球海平面降低,海陆分布发生了显著的变化。本文首次研究了LGM时东亚地区海-陆分布变化对区域气候的影响。结果表明:东亚地区海陆分布的变化造成这一地区在冬季减温,而在夏季增温。同时,该变化对中国东部近海地区的温度和降水产生明显的影响,尤其是对降水的影响。它使得中国东部地区降水减少,由此造成的降水减少占LGM时降水减少的25%-50%。海陆分布的变化对内陆和中国西部地区影响很小。
●本文首次提出夏季风增强并不一定降水增加,降水增加发生在季风增强而产生水汽辐合增加的地区。一般认为中全新世时期我国夏季风增强,而夏季风增强会使得降水增加。但是,一些研究发现这个时期一些地区降水减少,因此提出中全新世时东亚季风出现衰退。本文认为中全新世时期我国夏季风增强,但一些夏季风增强的地区,降水可以出现减少。
●本文利用卫星资料与模式模拟的现代中国地区的云量进行了比较,结果表明模式可以较好地再现现代中国地区中云和高云分布和季节变化的主要特征。在此基础上,本文首次研究了末次冰期冰盛期和中全新世时期中国地区大气中水循环因子的变化。结果表明:中全新世时,相对湿度最大的变化超过15%,不是一个保守量。有些地区温度增加,但是水汽却减少。同时,这也进一步证实了夏季风增强,降水不一定增加。在LGM,在温度降低的区域,水汽一致减少。中国西部地区夏季相对湿度增加,变得潮湿。这说明温度降低导致水汽减少,但温度升高不一定会使得水汽增加。这与全球尺度水汽相对湿度基本保持常数的结果不同。
In the process of the earth environment evolution, the phenomena that global climate becomes warm in 20~(th) Century had happened. A lot of geological researches show climate variations in past several 10 ka. These indicate that under the condition of no anthropogenic disturbance earth climate system practiced magnitude changes. It means that there is the conference for the predication of future climate changes, which can be used to examine the prediction. Moreover, these facts provide basis for exploring the mechanisms of climate changes.
Numerical simulation is one of main methods by which palace-climate are explored. The models that are used to simulate palace-climate are developed from early single general circulation model to update atmosphere-ocean-biosphere coupled model. The model simulations are changing from simulating climate equilibrium to transit variation. At present, some issues in LGM and Holocene are paid more attention, which includes: 1. during glacial age and inter-glacial age, there were the climate change on thousand and hundred years scale. What is the mechanism? 2. During glacial age, how were dust transported? How did tundra change? How did they affect the climate? 3. Under the background of global palace-climate and palace-environment changes, how does regional climate response? How does results of low resolution global model compare with geological records, especially precipitation.
In order to explore above Issue 3, with a regional model MM5 nested to an atmospheric global climate model CCM3, a series of simulations and sensitivity experiments have been performed to investigate relative Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Mid-Holocene (MH) climate response to different mechanisms over China. Some of main results are as follows:·It is one difficult problem that how GCM results compare with geological records. At present, one method by which GCM local and regional precipitations are estimated is statistical downscaling. The statistical model builds relationship between large-scale process and local changes on modern climate with linear mode. However, this method has some shortages, because the relationship between large-scale process and local changes isn't based on physical and dynamical rule, and it may change when climate and environment change. Another method is GCM model nesting regional model, whose merit is that is based on physical and dynamical rules. This thesis adopts this nesting way to investigate climate changes over China in LGM and Mid-Holocene. Comparing with early work, the global and regional models are advanced in this work. Our model results are better than early model results. Our modeled LGM and Mid-Holocene climate change are agreeable with geological records; especially in simulation of precipitation change (GCM results aren't agreeable with geological records). This indicates that GCM model nesting regional model can use to investigate palace-climate and regional climate responses, and this is very good method.
·In this thesis, a series of simulations and sensitivity experiments have been performed to investigate in the round the factors that influence China climate in LGM and Mid-Holocene, which involve earth orbit, CO_2, sea-land distribution, vegetation and large-scale circulation background change. Previous modeled works about climate changes over China in LGM and Mid-Holocene mainly paid attention to the influence factors which are focused, such as vegetation change etc, but these aren't all-around.
·During the LGM, two large ice sheets in North America and Europe causes a lower than PD sea-level in the extent of globe, and greatly alters the sea-land configuration. We first simulate the climate effect of land-sea distribution change in East Asia. Model results indicate that relative to the present climate, the changes of sea-land distribution in eastern Asia during the LGM result in temperature decrease in winter and increase summer. It has significant impact on the temperature and precipitation in the east coastal region of China. The impact on precipitation in the east coastal region of China is the most significant one, with 25-50% decrease in total precipitation change during the LGM. On the other hand, the changes in land-sea distribution have less influence on the climate of inland and western part of China.
·We first suggest that precipitation increases happen in regions where convergences of water vapor enhance, but precipitation mustn't increase though summer monsoon enhances. Generally, it is known that summer monsoon over China enhanced in Mid-Holocene, and the precipitation increased due to enhanced summer monsoon. Some works found that precipitation in some regions decreases in Mid-Holocene, and propounded that summer monsoon appears a time weaken in Mid-Holocene. We think that summer monsoon intensified in Mid-Holocene, but precipitation in some regions may reduce although the summer monsoon enhances. ·In this thesis, comparisons of modeled cloud and satellite cloud data indicate that the model can reproduce main characteristics of middle and high cloud distributions and their season variations under the condition of modern climate. Based on this, we first explore changes of hydrogen cycle components in atmosphere during LGM and Mid-Holocene. The results show that maximum of relative humidity change is more than 15% in Mid-Holocene, which isn't conservative. Water vapor decreases while temperature increases in some region. This further proves that precipitation mustn't increase although summer monsoon enhanced in some regions. In LGM, water vapor decreases while temperature reduces. The relative humidity in summer increases in Western China, which became wet. These indicate that when temperature reduces water vapor decreases, but water vapor mustn't increase as temperature enhances. This is different with results on global scale that relative humidity is conservative.
引文
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