基于投机需求的房价均衡模型及其研究
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摘要
中国的房价是近几年最热门的话题之一,现阶段我国房价远远高于居民平均收入能够承受的范围,越来越多的中低层收入者买不起房子,而与此同时,房价还在继续攀升。
本文认为传统的价格均衡分析方法已经不适合用来分析我国的房地产价格了,不断推动我国的房地产价格上升的需求方并不是来源于普通消费者的居住需求,而是来源于对房地产的投资而产生的投机需求。房地产绝不仅仅是普通的耐用消费品,而成为了一种兼有消费品与投资品属性的特殊商品。它不仅能带来居住的效用,同时具有带来潜在投资收益的属性。
本文试图从投机需求的角度解释房价高涨的原因,并创建一个加入预期影响因素的房价均衡模型。
本文首先分析了传统的供求均衡研究方法在研究房地产市场时的不足之处,然后引入预期相关理论的经典分析理论,由此建立基于投机需求的房价均衡模型。在房价需求方引入投机需求的因素并重点进行分析其对房价的影响。通过对宏观房产买卖市场中需求和供给的讨论建立了均衡方程,解释了均衡方程中几个重要的指标,着重说明了这些指标的现实意义。通过均衡方程的理论探讨了房产交易市场和银行系统,房产交易市场和房产租赁市场之间的联系,并解释了美国房产交易市场和中国房产交易市场的一些典型事实,在对模型进行理论分析的基础上,本文提出必须严格控制房地产市场的投机行为等政策建议。
The housing price in China is one of the most popular topics in recent years. Now the housing price is far above the average of people's earning. More and more people who have low and middle incomings can't afford the house price, meanwhile the house price is still keeping increasing. The traditional supply and demand models had some limitation in analyzing the real-estate market. The requirements which improve the price is not from normal consumer, but mainly from the speculative demand. Real-estate is not a normal durable consumable. It not only brings the utility which support a living place but also brings the profit as a kind of an asset.
This thesis is trying to explain the reason of the highly increase of real-estate price base on the research of the speculative demand, and build a house price model added the expected parameters. Firstly this paper analyzed the limitation of traditional supply and demand models on analyzing real-estate market, then introduced the classic expectation theory, and builds a housing price model based on the speculative demand. It analyzes the influencing factors of speculative demand. In the process of building the model, we considered the factors that affect the need and demand in the market, and build a equation. We then gave the illustration of the equation, and this is the most important and valued part of this thesis. After that we used our theoretic results to illustrate the connection between real estate markets, bank and real-estate renting market. And we used the theory to give explanation of some phenomena of the Sub-prime mortgage crises and also some event related to this market in China. In the end, based on the analysis of this model, this paper gives some suggestions mainly on how to restrain the speculative demand, And the government should give enough assistance to the low-income people.
本文认为传统的价格均衡分析方法已经不适合用来分析我国的房地产价格了,不断推动我国的房地产价格上升的需求方并不是来源于普通消费者的居住需求,而是来源于对房地产的投资而产生的投机需求。房地产绝不仅仅是普通的耐用消费品,而成为了一种兼有消费品与投资品属性的特殊商品。它不仅能带来居住的效用,同时具有带来潜在投资收益的属性。
本文试图从投机需求的角度解释房价高涨的原因,并创建一个加入预期影响因素的房价均衡模型。
本文首先分析了传统的供求均衡研究方法在研究房地产市场时的不足之处,然后引入预期相关理论的经典分析理论,由此建立基于投机需求的房价均衡模型。在房价需求方引入投机需求的因素并重点进行分析其对房价的影响。通过对宏观房产买卖市场中需求和供给的讨论建立了均衡方程,解释了均衡方程中几个重要的指标,着重说明了这些指标的现实意义。通过均衡方程的理论探讨了房产交易市场和银行系统,房产交易市场和房产租赁市场之间的联系,并解释了美国房产交易市场和中国房产交易市场的一些典型事实,在对模型进行理论分析的基础上,本文提出必须严格控制房地产市场的投机行为等政策建议。
The housing price in China is one of the most popular topics in recent years. Now the housing price is far above the average of people's earning. More and more people who have low and middle incomings can't afford the house price, meanwhile the house price is still keeping increasing. The traditional supply and demand models had some limitation in analyzing the real-estate market. The requirements which improve the price is not from normal consumer, but mainly from the speculative demand. Real-estate is not a normal durable consumable. It not only brings the utility which support a living place but also brings the profit as a kind of an asset.
This thesis is trying to explain the reason of the highly increase of real-estate price base on the research of the speculative demand, and build a house price model added the expected parameters. Firstly this paper analyzed the limitation of traditional supply and demand models on analyzing real-estate market, then introduced the classic expectation theory, and builds a housing price model based on the speculative demand. It analyzes the influencing factors of speculative demand. In the process of building the model, we considered the factors that affect the need and demand in the market, and build a equation. We then gave the illustration of the equation, and this is the most important and valued part of this thesis. After that we used our theoretic results to illustrate the connection between real estate markets, bank and real-estate renting market. And we used the theory to give explanation of some phenomena of the Sub-prime mortgage crises and also some event related to this market in China. In the end, based on the analysis of this model, this paper gives some suggestions mainly on how to restrain the speculative demand, And the government should give enough assistance to the low-income people.
引文
1 严金海 中国的房价与地价：理论、实证与政策分析[J].技术经济数量经济研究,2006,(1)：17～26
2 王学发 我国城市房价上涨的需求动因与调控对策研究[J].价格理论与实践,2007,(3)：41～42
3 张岑尧 地方政府的介入对城市房地产价格的影响：双重压力假说[J].东北财经大学学报,2005,(6)：40～43
4 李建飞 史晨昱(2004).我国银行信贷对房地产价格波动的影响[J].上海财经大学学报,2005,(4)：26～32
5 鲁风玲.房地产价格蕴涵的矛盾和土地管理模式的变革[J].价格理论与实践,2005,(11)：32～33
[1]Allen, F and D. Gale(1998):" Bubbles and Crises", The Economic Journal, 110,January.
[2]Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 1996, pp.29-61. Washington,D.C.:The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
[3]Bryan Ellickson "Hedonic Theory and Housing markets " No.124 July 1987.
[4]Carey, M (1990):Feeding the Fad:the Federal Land Banks, Land Market Efficiency,and the Farm Credit Crisis, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of California at Berkeley.
[5]Case, K and R. Shiller(1990):"Forecastin Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market", NBER Working Paper No.3368, May.
[6]Case, K and R. Shiller(2003):" Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?", Paper for the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, September.
[7]IMF international financial statistics yearbook 2001
[8]Kaminsky, G. and Reinhart, C. (1996b). The twin crises:the causes of banking and balance of payments problems. Working paper, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve,Washington, D.C.
[9]Kelvn J. Lancaster, "A New Approach to Consumer Theory", Journal of Political Economy,Vol.74, No.2(Apri.1966).
[10]Mankiw, G and N, Weil(1989):"The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust and the Housing Market", Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol.19.
[11]McKinnon,R.and Pill, H. (1998). International Overborrowing:A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks. Working paper, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California.
[12]Mishkin, F. (1997). Understanding financial crises:a developing country perspective.
[13]Olsen, E(1969):"A Competitive Theory of the Housing Market", American Economic Review,59(4) June.
[14]Rosen, S., "Hedonic prices and implicit markets:Product differentiation in pure competition", Journal ofPolitical Economy,1974 (82).
[15]Richard Herring "Bubbles in real estate market".
[16]Weil, P. (1987). Condence and the real value of money in an overlapping generations economy. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.102, pp.1-22.
[17]WTO annual report 2002 chapter 2 world trade department.
[18]丁华军,《上海市房地产业投机度分析》,《华东经济管理》,2007年第2期
[19]樊刚：《2008金融危机与中国的城市化出路》, 《中国宏观经济研究》2009年第一季度
[20]傅殷才,钟祛非,卢卡斯对于理性预期学派的贡献[J],经济学动态,1996,(2)
[21]哈继铭、范维维,《买房不如租房——房地产抽样调查分析报告》,中金公司,2005
[22]贾生华、田传浩、张宏斌,《农地租赁市场与农业经营规模》,《中国农村观察》,2003年第1期
[23]李宏瑾：《市场结构、供给约束与金融介入——关于房价的Carey(1990)模型扩展》,1994年
[24]刘洪玉,沈悦,房地产价格变化规律的经济学分析[J],建筑经济,2004,(9)：43-47
[25]刘鹏飞：《刚性需求、金融市场与中国房地产市场浅析》, 中国社会科学院财贸所,北京100836《建筑经济》2008年第五期
[26]娄策群、赵兆,《房地产投机的形成机理及其对策》,《甘肃农业》,200年第3期
[27]课题组：《我国城市住房健康发展的思考》,《宏观经济研究》,2009年第3期
[28]况伟大：《住房特性物业税与房价》, 《经济研究》2009第4期
[29]马晓霞：《商业房产价格理论》,《商业视角》2008.9上
[30]蒲勇健、陈鸿雁,《我国房地产市场泡沫存在性的实证研究》,《统计研究》2006年第5期
[31]曲波,《房地产经济波动理论与实证分析》[M],中国大地出版社,2003
[32]沈悦、刘洪玉(2004)：《住宅价格与经济基本面： 1995—2002年中国14城
市的实证研究》,《经济研究》第6期
[33]史永东,《投机泡沫与投机者行为》[M],北京：商务印书馆,2005
[34]吴艳霞、王楠,《房地产泡沫成因及其投机度测度研究》,《预测》,2006年第2期
[35]谢经荣、朱勇,《地产泡沫与金融危机》[M],北京：经济管理出版社,2002
[36]熊颖佳、杨扬,《房屋销售价格与租赁价格相互作用机制的实证研究》,《开放导报》,2006年第3期
[37]杨帆,《对我国房价与租金出现背离现象的思考》,《金融经济》,2006年第4期
[38]杨蕙馨、吴炜峰： 《居住消费升级与产业发展的相关性分析》, 《经济学动态》2009年第3期
[39]袁志刚、樊潇彦,《房地产市场理性泡沫分析》,经济研究,2003年第3期
[40]张财杰、刘金红：《论房地产的超调现象》,《商场现代化》2008年第1期
[41]张云：《经济虚拟化与金融危机、美元危机》, 《世界经济研究》2009年第3期
[42]郑思齐,王寅啸,房价上涨预期对住房需求的放大效应研究[J],中国物价,2007年第6期：52-55
[43]郑学平《美国金融危机对俄罗斯经济及房地产市场的影响》,《世界经济研究》2009年第4期
[44]周京奎,《房地产价格波动与投机行为——对中国14城市的实证研究》,《当代经济科学》,2005年第4期
[45]周永宏,《当前我国房价与租金关系的经济学分析——一个市场区隔理论的解释》,《当代财经》,2005年第10期。
2 王学发 我国城市房价上涨的需求动因与调控对策研究[J].价格理论与实践,2007,(3)：41～42
3 张岑尧 地方政府的介入对城市房地产价格的影响：双重压力假说[J].东北财经大学学报,2005,(6)：40～43
4 李建飞 史晨昱(2004).我国银行信贷对房地产价格波动的影响[J].上海财经大学学报,2005,(4)：26～32
5 鲁风玲.房地产价格蕴涵的矛盾和土地管理模式的变革[J].价格理论与实践,2005,(11)：32～33
[1]Allen, F and D. Gale(1998):" Bubbles and Crises", The Economic Journal, 110,January.
[2]Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 1996, pp.29-61. Washington,D.C.:The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
[3]Bryan Ellickson "Hedonic Theory and Housing markets " No.124 July 1987.
[4]Carey, M (1990):Feeding the Fad:the Federal Land Banks, Land Market Efficiency,and the Farm Credit Crisis, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of California at Berkeley.
[5]Case, K and R. Shiller(1990):"Forecastin Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market", NBER Working Paper No.3368, May.
[6]Case, K and R. Shiller(2003):" Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?", Paper for the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, September.
[7]IMF international financial statistics yearbook 2001
[8]Kaminsky, G. and Reinhart, C. (1996b). The twin crises:the causes of banking and balance of payments problems. Working paper, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve,Washington, D.C.
[9]Kelvn J. Lancaster, "A New Approach to Consumer Theory", Journal of Political Economy,Vol.74, No.2(Apri.1966).
[10]Mankiw, G and N, Weil(1989):"The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust and the Housing Market", Regional Science and Urban Economics, Vol.19.
[11]McKinnon,R.and Pill, H. (1998). International Overborrowing:A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks. Working paper, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California.
[12]Mishkin, F. (1997). Understanding financial crises:a developing country perspective.
[13]Olsen, E(1969):"A Competitive Theory of the Housing Market", American Economic Review,59(4) June.
[14]Rosen, S., "Hedonic prices and implicit markets:Product differentiation in pure competition", Journal ofPolitical Economy,1974 (82).
[15]Richard Herring "Bubbles in real estate market".
[16]Weil, P. (1987). Condence and the real value of money in an overlapping generations economy. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol.102, pp.1-22.
[17]WTO annual report 2002 chapter 2 world trade department.
[18]丁华军,《上海市房地产业投机度分析》,《华东经济管理》,2007年第2期
[19]樊刚：《2008金融危机与中国的城市化出路》, 《中国宏观经济研究》2009年第一季度
[20]傅殷才,钟祛非,卢卡斯对于理性预期学派的贡献[J],经济学动态,1996,(2)
[21]哈继铭、范维维,《买房不如租房——房地产抽样调查分析报告》,中金公司,2005
[22]贾生华、田传浩、张宏斌,《农地租赁市场与农业经营规模》,《中国农村观察》,2003年第1期
[23]李宏瑾：《市场结构、供给约束与金融介入——关于房价的Carey(1990)模型扩展》,1994年
[24]刘洪玉,沈悦,房地产价格变化规律的经济学分析[J],建筑经济,2004,(9)：43-47
[25]刘鹏飞：《刚性需求、金融市场与中国房地产市场浅析》, 中国社会科学院财贸所,北京100836《建筑经济》2008年第五期
[26]娄策群、赵兆,《房地产投机的形成机理及其对策》,《甘肃农业》,200年第3期
[27]课题组：《我国城市住房健康发展的思考》,《宏观经济研究》,2009年第3期
[28]况伟大：《住房特性物业税与房价》, 《经济研究》2009第4期
[29]马晓霞：《商业房产价格理论》,《商业视角》2008.9上
[30]蒲勇健、陈鸿雁,《我国房地产市场泡沫存在性的实证研究》,《统计研究》2006年第5期
[31]曲波,《房地产经济波动理论与实证分析》[M],中国大地出版社,2003
[32]沈悦、刘洪玉(2004)：《住宅价格与经济基本面： 1995—2002年中国14城
市的实证研究》,《经济研究》第6期
[33]史永东,《投机泡沫与投机者行为》[M],北京：商务印书馆,2005
[34]吴艳霞、王楠,《房地产泡沫成因及其投机度测度研究》,《预测》,2006年第2期
[35]谢经荣、朱勇,《地产泡沫与金融危机》[M],北京：经济管理出版社,2002
[36]熊颖佳、杨扬,《房屋销售价格与租赁价格相互作用机制的实证研究》,《开放导报》,2006年第3期
[37]杨帆,《对我国房价与租金出现背离现象的思考》,《金融经济》,2006年第4期
[38]杨蕙馨、吴炜峰： 《居住消费升级与产业发展的相关性分析》, 《经济学动态》2009年第3期
[39]袁志刚、樊潇彦,《房地产市场理性泡沫分析》,经济研究,2003年第3期
[40]张财杰、刘金红：《论房地产的超调现象》,《商场现代化》2008年第1期
[41]张云：《经济虚拟化与金融危机、美元危机》, 《世界经济研究》2009年第3期
[42]郑思齐,王寅啸,房价上涨预期对住房需求的放大效应研究[J],中国物价,2007年第6期：52-55
[43]郑学平《美国金融危机对俄罗斯经济及房地产市场的影响》,《世界经济研究》2009年第4期
[44]周京奎,《房地产价格波动与投机行为——对中国14城市的实证研究》,《当代经济科学》,2005年第4期
[45]周永宏,《当前我国房价与租金关系的经济学分析——一个市场区隔理论的解释》,《当代财经》,2005年第10期。