长江三角洲城市化格局、驱动力及可持续性的研究：多尺度等级途径
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摘要
随着城市化的快速发展,生态和环境影响日益加剧,城市可持续发展已成为人类面临的一个重大问题。本文以快速城市化的长江三角洲为例,用多尺度等级途径进行城市化时空格局与驱动力分析以及城市可持续性评价,从而对城市生态学和可持续性进行深入探讨。我们得出如下主要结论：
1.1979-2008年间,长江三角洲中部地区在区域、地级市和县级市尺度上各个城市的城市面积均呈显著的指数增长,增幅在5倍到60倍之间,尤以县级市尺度上的城市面积增长最快。同时,多等级尺度上的城市案例验证了城市扩展的扩散-聚合假说。但是,与城市景观结构的同质化假说不同的是,我们发现城市之间的以景观格局指数表征的城市形态差异随着时间呈增大(异质化)和减小(同质化)交替的过程。
2.对长江三角洲中部地区城市扩展驱动力(1990-2008年)研究的结果与对于城市增长规律的认识是一致的。自然、社会经济和政策因素都会影响着城市增长,并且在不同等级尺度上存在着尺度效应。政策因素在诸多解释变量中发挥着较重要的作用。通过比较不同等级上的多个城市的驱动力,发现在大多数时段内在同一等级尺度和跨尺度上驱动大多数城市扩展的共同解释变量。这些变量对于后续城市扩展预测模型的建立和可持续的城市土地管理具有指导作用。
3.构建了城市可持续性指标体系,用2000-2008年的数据对长江三角洲的两省(江苏省、浙江省)一直辖市(上海市)及其下辖的13个地级市的社会、环境、经济和总体的可持续性进行了评价。省级和地级市的社会、环境、经济和总体可持续随时间的变化规律不尽相同。社会、经济和总体可持续性之间呈显著正相关,而它们与环境可持续性呈显著负相关。
4.把可持续性与以城市景观格局指数表征的城市形态进行了相关分析。与城市可持续性呈显著相关的景观格局指数对于简单地表征城市可持续性以及构建后续的城市可持续性评价指标体系是一个很好的开始。
总体而言,等级理论一方面考虑了先前的相关研究所忽略的尺度之间的相关关系,另一方面为理解多尺度上的格局-过程的交互作用、揭示或比较尺度内部和跨尺度的驱动力的基本规律以及城市可持续性提供了一个有效可行的理论框架。在研究中,我们综合了来自景观生态学、系统生态学和地理学的一些方法；这些方法和所得到的结果为本研究区域可持续性的城市土地利用规划、管理以及城市可持续性的建设提供了理论框架和依据。
Cities have been a "new frontier" in ecology because of their increasing ecological and environmental impacts. The main goal of this dissertation research was to address several important issuses on urban ecology and sustainability (i.e. spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces of urbanization and the sustainable development of urban regions) using a multiscale hierarchical approach.
This study quantified the spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces of urbanization in the central Yangtze River Delta (CYRD) region in China during1979-2008using remotely sensed and socioeconomic data at three hierarchical levels (regional, prefectural city, and county levels). Urban areas for all cities at different hierarchical levels increased in an exponential way over time and the mean annual growth rate for cities at lower level was higher than that of higher level. Our study tested the predictions of hierarchy theory in a complex urban environment that the lower-level components change at a higher rate than higher levels. Our results also confirmend the diffustion-coalescen hypothesis and partially confirmed the hypothesis of urban landscape homogeineity hypothesis at multiple hierarchical levels. Furthermore, the results of driving forces of urban expansion during1990-2008were consistent with our current understanding of the general regrulation. Natural, socioeconomic and political factors affect urban expansion at the same time with scale effect, among which political factors played a more important role. We identified several common explanatory factors at the three hierarchical levels by comparing all the cities at the corresponding hierarchical levels, which provides useful information for modeling future urban expansion and sutainable urban planning and management.
This study also performed an urban sustainability assessement, including social, environmental, economic and overall urban sustainability in two provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, one municipality of Shanghai and thirteen prefectural cities in the Yangtze River Delta. We further analyzed the correlation between urban sustainability and landscape pattern as measured by several landscapes metrics, providing new insight into how urban sustainability may be related to landscape pattern. Social, environmental, economic, and overall sustainability of cities varied at the regional and prefectural levels. A general trend was that the social, economic and total sustainability were positively correlated, all of which were negatively correlated with environmental sustainability.
Overall, hierarchy theory provides an effective framework for understanding cross-scale interactions of urbanziton patterns and processes, which have rarely been considered in previous studies. Our findings on multiscale spatiotemporal patterns, drivers, and sustainability assessment of urbanization shed new insight into urban ecology and the sustainability of cities. The results of this study have important implications for sustainable urban planning and management in the Yangtze River Delta region and beyond.
1.1979-2008年间,长江三角洲中部地区在区域、地级市和县级市尺度上各个城市的城市面积均呈显著的指数增长,增幅在5倍到60倍之间,尤以县级市尺度上的城市面积增长最快。同时,多等级尺度上的城市案例验证了城市扩展的扩散-聚合假说。但是,与城市景观结构的同质化假说不同的是,我们发现城市之间的以景观格局指数表征的城市形态差异随着时间呈增大(异质化)和减小(同质化)交替的过程。
2.对长江三角洲中部地区城市扩展驱动力(1990-2008年)研究的结果与对于城市增长规律的认识是一致的。自然、社会经济和政策因素都会影响着城市增长,并且在不同等级尺度上存在着尺度效应。政策因素在诸多解释变量中发挥着较重要的作用。通过比较不同等级上的多个城市的驱动力,发现在大多数时段内在同一等级尺度和跨尺度上驱动大多数城市扩展的共同解释变量。这些变量对于后续城市扩展预测模型的建立和可持续的城市土地管理具有指导作用。
3.构建了城市可持续性指标体系,用2000-2008年的数据对长江三角洲的两省(江苏省、浙江省)一直辖市(上海市)及其下辖的13个地级市的社会、环境、经济和总体的可持续性进行了评价。省级和地级市的社会、环境、经济和总体可持续随时间的变化规律不尽相同。社会、经济和总体可持续性之间呈显著正相关,而它们与环境可持续性呈显著负相关。
4.把可持续性与以城市景观格局指数表征的城市形态进行了相关分析。与城市可持续性呈显著相关的景观格局指数对于简单地表征城市可持续性以及构建后续的城市可持续性评价指标体系是一个很好的开始。
总体而言,等级理论一方面考虑了先前的相关研究所忽略的尺度之间的相关关系,另一方面为理解多尺度上的格局-过程的交互作用、揭示或比较尺度内部和跨尺度的驱动力的基本规律以及城市可持续性提供了一个有效可行的理论框架。在研究中,我们综合了来自景观生态学、系统生态学和地理学的一些方法；这些方法和所得到的结果为本研究区域可持续性的城市土地利用规划、管理以及城市可持续性的建设提供了理论框架和依据。
Cities have been a "new frontier" in ecology because of their increasing ecological and environmental impacts. The main goal of this dissertation research was to address several important issuses on urban ecology and sustainability (i.e. spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces of urbanization and the sustainable development of urban regions) using a multiscale hierarchical approach.
This study quantified the spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces of urbanization in the central Yangtze River Delta (CYRD) region in China during1979-2008using remotely sensed and socioeconomic data at three hierarchical levels (regional, prefectural city, and county levels). Urban areas for all cities at different hierarchical levels increased in an exponential way over time and the mean annual growth rate for cities at lower level was higher than that of higher level. Our study tested the predictions of hierarchy theory in a complex urban environment that the lower-level components change at a higher rate than higher levels. Our results also confirmend the diffustion-coalescen hypothesis and partially confirmed the hypothesis of urban landscape homogeineity hypothesis at multiple hierarchical levels. Furthermore, the results of driving forces of urban expansion during1990-2008were consistent with our current understanding of the general regrulation. Natural, socioeconomic and political factors affect urban expansion at the same time with scale effect, among which political factors played a more important role. We identified several common explanatory factors at the three hierarchical levels by comparing all the cities at the corresponding hierarchical levels, which provides useful information for modeling future urban expansion and sutainable urban planning and management.
This study also performed an urban sustainability assessement, including social, environmental, economic and overall urban sustainability in two provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, one municipality of Shanghai and thirteen prefectural cities in the Yangtze River Delta. We further analyzed the correlation between urban sustainability and landscape pattern as measured by several landscapes metrics, providing new insight into how urban sustainability may be related to landscape pattern. Social, environmental, economic, and overall sustainability of cities varied at the regional and prefectural levels. A general trend was that the social, economic and total sustainability were positively correlated, all of which were negatively correlated with environmental sustainability.
Overall, hierarchy theory provides an effective framework for understanding cross-scale interactions of urbanziton patterns and processes, which have rarely been considered in previous studies. Our findings on multiscale spatiotemporal patterns, drivers, and sustainability assessment of urbanization shed new insight into urban ecology and the sustainability of cities. The results of this study have important implications for sustainable urban planning and management in the Yangtze River Delta region and beyond.
引文
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