APEX模型在土壤侵蚀模拟中的适用性和不确定性分析研究
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摘要
土壤侵蚀是全球性的生态环境问题,它对人类的生存和发展构成了严重威胁,对土壤侵蚀规律及其防治措施的研究已经成为国内外学者共同关注的焦点。淮河流域面积269,800 km~2,是中国七大流域之一,该流域22%的面积存在水土流失,平均土壤侵蚀量达到35 t·ha~(-1)·yr~(-1),而该地区可用于水土流失研究的资料比较匮乏。水文/水质模型是定量研究土壤侵蚀过程、指导水土保持措施配置、优化水土资源管理的有效工具。因此,在淮河流域运用有限的水土流失监测资料进行不同土地管理措施下土壤侵蚀规律及预测模型的研究具有很强的现实意义。
本文以位于淮河流域中上游的河南省鲁山县水土保持科学试验站的三个径流小区为研究区,探讨APEX(Agricultural Policy and Environmental eXtender)模型在该地区点位模拟中的适用性以及模型输出结果的不确定性。首先,在分析模型参数灵敏度的基础上,应用研究区1982～86年日径流和产沙实测数据校正和验证模型,并评价其适用性;然后,把经过校正和验证的模型应用于不同管理措施的长期水土保持效益(1981～2005)评价中;最后,运用蒙特卡罗法对模型进行不确定性分析。主要结论如下:
1)运用Sobol法和Extended FAST法,分别对APEX模型的13个参数进行灵敏度分析(1982～1986)。Sobol法识别出水文条件Ⅱ下的径流曲线数初始值(CN_2),损耗系数(CNIC),水土保持措施因子(PEC)以及最大径流率——降雨能量调整因子(APM)是对产沙影响较大的四个因子,其中前两个因子对径流影响较大。ExtendedFAST法与Sobol法的结果相似,与Sobol法相比,Extended FAST法的计算成本较低,是一种效率更高的灵敏度分析方法。
2)分别运用蒙特卡罗模拟结合单目标函数和多目标函数技术的计算机程序自动校正模型,采用R~2≥0.5,EF≥0.4以及APE＜25%的标准评价模型的适用性。通过比较两种校正方法发现单目标函数法的校正结果较差,在大多数情况下PE,EF和R~2三个指标未能同时都达到评价标准;而多目标函数法的校正效果较好,在1982年模型校正时期,径流和产沙日平均模拟值的APE分别小于15%和20%,EF从0.48到0.89,R~2从0.56到0.98。在模型验证时期(1983～86),三个小区径流和产沙日平均模拟值的APE分别小于20%和25%,EF从0.41到0.84,R~2从0.55到0.85,校正过的模型可以模拟出径流和产沙的日变异,拟合度结果表明模型能够很好解释实测值的变异,因此,APEX模型适用于淮河流域中上游点位模拟中,能够预测不同土地管理措施下的水土流失,这为资料匮乏区研究土壤侵蚀提供了一种新的思路和工具。
3)我们把经过校正和验证的APEX模型用于对三种情景进行情景分析,其中对照为休闲地,情景1和2分别为‘林草混交-水平梯田'和‘林地-水平沟'。情景分析结果表明,构建水平梯田和水平沟,退耕还林以及增加地表植被覆盖对控制水土流失效果明显,‘林地-水平沟'的组合方式可减少37%的地表径流和89%的产沙量,构建水平梯田以及采用林草混交能减少35%的地表径流和84%的产沙量。研究结果对于淮河流域中上游选择合适的土地管理措施来控制水土流失有一定启发,同时也说明APEX能用于评价不同情景的长期水土保持效益。
4)运用蒙特卡罗模拟和统计方法分析了PEC、CN_2、CNIC和APM四个不确定参数引起的径流和产沙输出结果的不确定性,此外还分析了EHC4由PEC和CN_2两个不确定参数导致的不同情景下水土保持效益的不确定性。EHC1、EHC2和EHC4三个小区25年(1981～2005)年均径流预测值的95%置信度的不确定性范围分别为64.5～69.5 mm·yr~(-1),58.0～62.8 mm·yr~(-1)以及103.0～105.9 mm·yr~(-1);三个小区年均产沙量的不确定性范围分别为3.7～4.0 t·ha~(-1)·yr~(-1),2.0～2.2 t·ha~(-1)·yr~(-1)以及25.3～26.2 t·ha~(-1)·yr~(-1)。与对照相比,在95%置信度下情景1的径流量年均减少31.6%～36.2%,产沙量年均减少83.4%～84.4%,情景2的径流量年均减少34.3%～38.7%,产沙量年均减少88.9%～89.6%。
Soil erosion is a global ecological and environmental problem which threatens human survival and progress.Studies of soil erosion processes and preventive measures have become a major focus among researchers worldwide.The Huaihe River Basin,one of the seven major river basins in China,has a catchment area of 269,800 km~2.Soil erosion rate can be as high as 35 t·ha~(-1)·yr~(-1) across nearly 22%of the basin area.Hydrologic/Water quality models are effective tools that can be used to study soil erosion processes quantitatively, design soil and water conservation practices,and optimize soil and water resource management.It is important to study soil erosion under different management practices using simulation models because long-term detailed rainfall,runoff,and erosion data are not available for Huaihe River Basin.
This study was conducted to evaluate the applicability of the APEX model to Chinese watersheds.Three plots located in the Middle and Upland Huaihe River Basin were selected as study areas.The APEX model was subjected to sensitivity analysis,calibration and validation using daily runoff and sediment yield data collected from the three plots during 1982-1986.Scenario simulations were conducted for 25-year periods using the calibrated and validated model for evaluating soil and water conservation benefits.Moreover, uncertainty analysis was conducted using Monte Carlo method.The main conclusions are as follows:
1) Sensitivity analysis(SA) was conducted for the surface runoff and soil erosion components using Sobol and Extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test(Extended FAST). A total of 13 parameters were selected for SA.The SA results of the Sobol method showed that moisture condition 2 curve number(CN_2),curve number index coefficient(CNIC), conservation practice factor(PEC),and peak rate-rainfall energy adjustment factor(APM) were influential for sediment yield,and that CN_2 and CNIC were influential for surface runoff.The Extended FAST method had similar results with Sobol and was more efficient computationally.
2) The Monte Carlo scheme was used for model calibration/optimization in this study. Results from using multi-objective functions were better than those from using single objective function.The criteria of R~2≥0.5,EF≥0.4 and percentage error of mean under 25% were established to assess the model results.The single objective function method failed to meet all the evaluation criteria(PE,EF and R~2) simultaneously in the most cases.Predicted average daily runoff and sediment yield were within 15%and 20%of the corresponding observed values for the 1982 calibration period.The EF values ranged from 0.48 to 0.89, and R~2 from 0.56 to 0.98.The predicted average daily runoff and sediment yield were within 20%and 25%of the corresponding observed values for the validation period of 1983～1986. The calibrated APEX model tracked the variability of daily runoff and sediment yield well for the validation period,with EF values ranging from 0.41 to 0.84 and R~2 from 0.55 to 0.85. The goodness-of-fit measures indicate that the APEX model explained variation in the observed data reasonably well.The results suggested that the APEX model is applicable at the site-scale.It can be a useful tool for simulating runoff and erosion under different management practices in the Middle and Upland Huaihe River Basin.It will be useful in simulating runoff and erosion for ungaged watersheds.
3) The scenario analyses using calibrated and validated APEX model revealed that the woodland with horizontal-ditch reduced surface runoff by 37%and sediment yield by 89%. The mixed wood-grass with horizontal-terrace reduced surface runoff by 35%and sediment yield by 84%.The results indicated that the construction of horizontal-terrace and horizontal-ditch and reforestation or revegetation are very effective in controlling surface runoff and sediment yield.The results were irradiative for choosing adaptive land management practices in the Middle and Upland Huaihe River Basin to reduce soil and water loss.APEX is a useful tool for evaluating the benefits of long-term soil and water conservation under different scenarios.
4) Uncertainties of predicted runoff and sediment yield associated with uncertainties in PEC,CN_2,CNIC and APM were analyzed using Monte Carlo and statistical methods.The reduction in confidence intervals of surface runoff and sediment yield resulting from uncertainties of PEC and CN_2 for EHC4 under scenario 1 and 2 were also analyzed.The 95% confidence interval bands of average annual runoff over the 25-year simulation period ranged from 64.5 to 69.5 mm·yr~(-1) for EHC1,from 58.0 to 62.8 mm·yr~(-1) for EHC2,and from 103.0 to 105.9 mm·yr~(-1) for EHC4.The confidence interval bands of average annual sediment yield ranged from 3.7 to 4.0 t·ha~(-1)·yr~(-1) for EHC1,from 2.0 to 2.2 t·ha~(-1)·yr~(-1) for EHC2,and from 25.3 to 26.2 t·ha~(-1)·yr~(-1) for EHC4.The 95%confidence interval for average annual runoff reduction was 31.6%～36.2%for scenario 1 and 34.3%～38.7%for scenario 2.The 95%confidence interval for average sediment yield reduction was 83.4%～84.4%for scenario 1 and 88.9%～89.6%for scenario 2.
本文以位于淮河流域中上游的河南省鲁山县水土保持科学试验站的三个径流小区为研究区,探讨APEX(Agricultural Policy and Environmental eXtender)模型在该地区点位模拟中的适用性以及模型输出结果的不确定性。首先,在分析模型参数灵敏度的基础上,应用研究区1982～86年日径流和产沙实测数据校正和验证模型,并评价其适用性;然后,把经过校正和验证的模型应用于不同管理措施的长期水土保持效益(1981～2005)评价中;最后,运用蒙特卡罗法对模型进行不确定性分析。主要结论如下:
1)运用Sobol法和Extended FAST法,分别对APEX模型的13个参数进行灵敏度分析(1982～1986)。Sobol法识别出水文条件Ⅱ下的径流曲线数初始值(CN_2),损耗系数(CNIC),水土保持措施因子(PEC)以及最大径流率——降雨能量调整因子(APM)是对产沙影响较大的四个因子,其中前两个因子对径流影响较大。ExtendedFAST法与Sobol法的结果相似,与Sobol法相比,Extended FAST法的计算成本较低,是一种效率更高的灵敏度分析方法。
2)分别运用蒙特卡罗模拟结合单目标函数和多目标函数技术的计算机程序自动校正模型,采用R~2≥0.5,EF≥0.4以及APE＜25%的标准评价模型的适用性。通过比较两种校正方法发现单目标函数法的校正结果较差,在大多数情况下PE,EF和R~2三个指标未能同时都达到评价标准;而多目标函数法的校正效果较好,在1982年模型校正时期,径流和产沙日平均模拟值的APE分别小于15%和20%,EF从0.48到0.89,R~2从0.56到0.98。在模型验证时期(1983～86),三个小区径流和产沙日平均模拟值的APE分别小于20%和25%,EF从0.41到0.84,R~2从0.55到0.85,校正过的模型可以模拟出径流和产沙的日变异,拟合度结果表明模型能够很好解释实测值的变异,因此,APEX模型适用于淮河流域中上游点位模拟中,能够预测不同土地管理措施下的水土流失,这为资料匮乏区研究土壤侵蚀提供了一种新的思路和工具。
3)我们把经过校正和验证的APEX模型用于对三种情景进行情景分析,其中对照为休闲地,情景1和2分别为‘林草混交-水平梯田'和‘林地-水平沟'。情景分析结果表明,构建水平梯田和水平沟,退耕还林以及增加地表植被覆盖对控制水土流失效果明显,‘林地-水平沟'的组合方式可减少37%的地表径流和89%的产沙量,构建水平梯田以及采用林草混交能减少35%的地表径流和84%的产沙量。研究结果对于淮河流域中上游选择合适的土地管理措施来控制水土流失有一定启发,同时也说明APEX能用于评价不同情景的长期水土保持效益。
4)运用蒙特卡罗模拟和统计方法分析了PEC、CN_2、CNIC和APM四个不确定参数引起的径流和产沙输出结果的不确定性,此外还分析了EHC4由PEC和CN_2两个不确定参数导致的不同情景下水土保持效益的不确定性。EHC1、EHC2和EHC4三个小区25年(1981～2005)年均径流预测值的95%置信度的不确定性范围分别为64.5～69.5 mm·yr~(-1),58.0～62.8 mm·yr~(-1)以及103.0～105.9 mm·yr~(-1);三个小区年均产沙量的不确定性范围分别为3.7～4.0 t·ha~(-1)·yr~(-1),2.0～2.2 t·ha~(-1)·yr~(-1)以及25.3～26.2 t·ha~(-1)·yr~(-1)。与对照相比,在95%置信度下情景1的径流量年均减少31.6%～36.2%,产沙量年均减少83.4%～84.4%,情景2的径流量年均减少34.3%～38.7%,产沙量年均减少88.9%～89.6%。
Soil erosion is a global ecological and environmental problem which threatens human survival and progress.Studies of soil erosion processes and preventive measures have become a major focus among researchers worldwide.The Huaihe River Basin,one of the seven major river basins in China,has a catchment area of 269,800 km~2.Soil erosion rate can be as high as 35 t·ha~(-1)·yr~(-1) across nearly 22%of the basin area.Hydrologic/Water quality models are effective tools that can be used to study soil erosion processes quantitatively, design soil and water conservation practices,and optimize soil and water resource management.It is important to study soil erosion under different management practices using simulation models because long-term detailed rainfall,runoff,and erosion data are not available for Huaihe River Basin.
This study was conducted to evaluate the applicability of the APEX model to Chinese watersheds.Three plots located in the Middle and Upland Huaihe River Basin were selected as study areas.The APEX model was subjected to sensitivity analysis,calibration and validation using daily runoff and sediment yield data collected from the three plots during 1982-1986.Scenario simulations were conducted for 25-year periods using the calibrated and validated model for evaluating soil and water conservation benefits.Moreover, uncertainty analysis was conducted using Monte Carlo method.The main conclusions are as follows:
1) Sensitivity analysis(SA) was conducted for the surface runoff and soil erosion components using Sobol and Extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test(Extended FAST). A total of 13 parameters were selected for SA.The SA results of the Sobol method showed that moisture condition 2 curve number(CN_2),curve number index coefficient(CNIC), conservation practice factor(PEC),and peak rate-rainfall energy adjustment factor(APM) were influential for sediment yield,and that CN_2 and CNIC were influential for surface runoff.The Extended FAST method had similar results with Sobol and was more efficient computationally.
2) The Monte Carlo scheme was used for model calibration/optimization in this study. Results from using multi-objective functions were better than those from using single objective function.The criteria of R~2≥0.5,EF≥0.4 and percentage error of mean under 25% were established to assess the model results.The single objective function method failed to meet all the evaluation criteria(PE,EF and R~2) simultaneously in the most cases.Predicted average daily runoff and sediment yield were within 15%and 20%of the corresponding observed values for the 1982 calibration period.The EF values ranged from 0.48 to 0.89, and R~2 from 0.56 to 0.98.The predicted average daily runoff and sediment yield were within 20%and 25%of the corresponding observed values for the validation period of 1983～1986. The calibrated APEX model tracked the variability of daily runoff and sediment yield well for the validation period,with EF values ranging from 0.41 to 0.84 and R~2 from 0.55 to 0.85. The goodness-of-fit measures indicate that the APEX model explained variation in the observed data reasonably well.The results suggested that the APEX model is applicable at the site-scale.It can be a useful tool for simulating runoff and erosion under different management practices in the Middle and Upland Huaihe River Basin.It will be useful in simulating runoff and erosion for ungaged watersheds.
3) The scenario analyses using calibrated and validated APEX model revealed that the woodland with horizontal-ditch reduced surface runoff by 37%and sediment yield by 89%. The mixed wood-grass with horizontal-terrace reduced surface runoff by 35%and sediment yield by 84%.The results indicated that the construction of horizontal-terrace and horizontal-ditch and reforestation or revegetation are very effective in controlling surface runoff and sediment yield.The results were irradiative for choosing adaptive land management practices in the Middle and Upland Huaihe River Basin to reduce soil and water loss.APEX is a useful tool for evaluating the benefits of long-term soil and water conservation under different scenarios.
4) Uncertainties of predicted runoff and sediment yield associated with uncertainties in PEC,CN_2,CNIC and APM were analyzed using Monte Carlo and statistical methods.The reduction in confidence intervals of surface runoff and sediment yield resulting from uncertainties of PEC and CN_2 for EHC4 under scenario 1 and 2 were also analyzed.The 95% confidence interval bands of average annual runoff over the 25-year simulation period ranged from 64.5 to 69.5 mm·yr~(-1) for EHC1,from 58.0 to 62.8 mm·yr~(-1) for EHC2,and from 103.0 to 105.9 mm·yr~(-1) for EHC4.The confidence interval bands of average annual sediment yield ranged from 3.7 to 4.0 t·ha~(-1)·yr~(-1) for EHC1,from 2.0 to 2.2 t·ha~(-1)·yr~(-1) for EHC2,and from 25.3 to 26.2 t·ha~(-1)·yr~(-1) for EHC4.The 95%confidence interval for average annual runoff reduction was 31.6%～36.2%for scenario 1 and 34.3%～38.7%for scenario 2.The 95%confidence interval for average sediment yield reduction was 83.4%～84.4%for scenario 1 and 88.9%～89.6%for scenario 2.
引文
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