武汉市人口结构与住宅价格关系的实证研究
摘要
房地产业是我国国民经济的支柱产业,在我国国民经济中扮演着重要角色。住宅是房地产的重要组成部分,住宅市场的健康发展不仅关系到国家、地区的经济发展,更加关系到社会的稳定与和谐。
我国是一个人口众多的国家,在上世纪五六十年代,我国经历了一个高出生率的时代,这批人口成年后,住宅需求急剧增大。加之近些年我国民经济空前发展,城市人口快速增长,收入水平不断提高、消费观念得到巨大的改善,人们对于住宅的数量和质量上的需求大量释放。但我国的现实国情是人均土地面积少,住宅用地供给有限。住宅供需的不平衡,造成房价上涨。近几年,城市房价上涨过快,“买房难”问题早已不是个案,住宅问题已成为包括城市中低收入人群在内的大部分人的难题。同时,根据人口学家、经济学家预测,我国“人口红利”时代即将消退,取而代之的将是老龄化社会。对于可以预见的住宅需求的剧减,将会给我国房地产业带来巨大冲击。作为我国中西部最大的城市,武汉面临着同样的问题。如何实现住宅市场对人口结构变化的“软着陆”,人口结构与住宅价格有什么内在联系,本文将就这一问题进行探讨。
本文以武汉市为例,将商品住宅价格与人口结构作为研究对象,选取武汉市人口自然结构(性别比、劳动力资源比重、抚养比)、人口社会经济结构(家庭规模、就业比重、人均可支配收入)和地域结构(非农业人口比重)三个方面七个指标,文章先对人口结构各子结构与住宅价格关系进行定性分析,然后建立计量经济学模型。得出：(1)人口结构与住宅价格有很强的相关性。其中,劳动力资源结构、抚养比、人均可支配收入与住宅价格相互引导；家庭规模、非农业人口比重单方面引导住宅价格变化；住宅价格引导就业比重的变化；性别比与住宅价格不存在相关性。(2)武汉市住宅价格主要受劳动力资源结构、家庭规模和城乡结构的影响。(3)家庭规模、人均可支配收入、非农业人口比重对住宅价格存在长期的影响,劳动力资源结构、抚养比在短期内影响较大。文章最后对武汉市住宅市场健康发展提出了一些建议。
Real estate is a pillar industry of China's national economy, it plays an important role in China's national economy. Housing is an important part of real estate, housing market in the healthy development not only related to national or local economy, but also related to social stability and harmony.
China is a populous country, in the 1950s and 1960s, China had experienced a high birth rate era, when the population got adult, the housing demand increased sharply. Coupled with unprecedented economic development in recent years, rapid growth of urban population, the income levels, consumption levels are made great improvements, the quantity and quality of people's housing needs release a lot. However the actual situation in China is less per capital land area, and the residential land supply is limited. The imbalance of the house supply and demand resulting in rising of house price. In recent years, house prices soaring in some citied in China, "hard to buy a house" issue is no longer a case. The housing problem has become hard issue the most of the population facing, including the low-income crowd. At the same time, according to the demographers'and economists'prediction, China's "demographic dividend" era will soon subsided, and will be replaced by the aging society. For the foreseeable drastic reduction of housing demand, it will give a huge impact on the Chinese real estate industry. As the largest city in the central and western China, WUHAN will face the same problem. How to reach the "soft landing" of the housing market to the population structure change, the internal links between them, will be discussed in this paper.
Take Wuhan as a example, This Paper select the commercial housing price and population structure as the research object, select the natural population structure (sex ratio, the proportion of labor force, dependency ratio), socio-economic population structure (family size, employment, personal disposable income) and the geographical population structure (the proportion of non-agricultural population).It analysis the relationship between the housing price and population structure qualitative firstly, and then create an econometric model. Finally, the results are as follows:(1) There is a strong correlation between population structure and housing prices:the labor force structure, dependency ratio, personal disposable income and price guide with each other; family size, the proportion of non-agricultural population of unilateral guide price changes; prices lead changes in the proportion of employment; sex ratio is not correlated with house prices. (2) Wuhan price is mainly affected by the structure of labor resources, family size and urban-rural structure. (3) household size, personal disposable income, the proportion of non-agricultural population bring long-term impact on housing prices, The structure of labor resources, dependency ratio bring a greater impact in the short term. Finally The article put forward some proposals and the opinion to the Wuhan housing market healthy development.
我国是一个人口众多的国家,在上世纪五六十年代,我国经历了一个高出生率的时代,这批人口成年后,住宅需求急剧增大。加之近些年我国民经济空前发展,城市人口快速增长,收入水平不断提高、消费观念得到巨大的改善,人们对于住宅的数量和质量上的需求大量释放。但我国的现实国情是人均土地面积少,住宅用地供给有限。住宅供需的不平衡,造成房价上涨。近几年,城市房价上涨过快,“买房难”问题早已不是个案,住宅问题已成为包括城市中低收入人群在内的大部分人的难题。同时,根据人口学家、经济学家预测,我国“人口红利”时代即将消退,取而代之的将是老龄化社会。对于可以预见的住宅需求的剧减,将会给我国房地产业带来巨大冲击。作为我国中西部最大的城市,武汉面临着同样的问题。如何实现住宅市场对人口结构变化的“软着陆”,人口结构与住宅价格有什么内在联系,本文将就这一问题进行探讨。
本文以武汉市为例,将商品住宅价格与人口结构作为研究对象,选取武汉市人口自然结构(性别比、劳动力资源比重、抚养比)、人口社会经济结构(家庭规模、就业比重、人均可支配收入)和地域结构(非农业人口比重)三个方面七个指标,文章先对人口结构各子结构与住宅价格关系进行定性分析,然后建立计量经济学模型。得出：(1)人口结构与住宅价格有很强的相关性。其中,劳动力资源结构、抚养比、人均可支配收入与住宅价格相互引导；家庭规模、非农业人口比重单方面引导住宅价格变化；住宅价格引导就业比重的变化；性别比与住宅价格不存在相关性。(2)武汉市住宅价格主要受劳动力资源结构、家庭规模和城乡结构的影响。(3)家庭规模、人均可支配收入、非农业人口比重对住宅价格存在长期的影响,劳动力资源结构、抚养比在短期内影响较大。文章最后对武汉市住宅市场健康发展提出了一些建议。
Real estate is a pillar industry of China's national economy, it plays an important role in China's national economy. Housing is an important part of real estate, housing market in the healthy development not only related to national or local economy, but also related to social stability and harmony.
China is a populous country, in the 1950s and 1960s, China had experienced a high birth rate era, when the population got adult, the housing demand increased sharply. Coupled with unprecedented economic development in recent years, rapid growth of urban population, the income levels, consumption levels are made great improvements, the quantity and quality of people's housing needs release a lot. However the actual situation in China is less per capital land area, and the residential land supply is limited. The imbalance of the house supply and demand resulting in rising of house price. In recent years, house prices soaring in some citied in China, "hard to buy a house" issue is no longer a case. The housing problem has become hard issue the most of the population facing, including the low-income crowd. At the same time, according to the demographers'and economists'prediction, China's "demographic dividend" era will soon subsided, and will be replaced by the aging society. For the foreseeable drastic reduction of housing demand, it will give a huge impact on the Chinese real estate industry. As the largest city in the central and western China, WUHAN will face the same problem. How to reach the "soft landing" of the housing market to the population structure change, the internal links between them, will be discussed in this paper.
Take Wuhan as a example, This Paper select the commercial housing price and population structure as the research object, select the natural population structure (sex ratio, the proportion of labor force, dependency ratio), socio-economic population structure (family size, employment, personal disposable income) and the geographical population structure (the proportion of non-agricultural population).It analysis the relationship between the housing price and population structure qualitative firstly, and then create an econometric model. Finally, the results are as follows:(1) There is a strong correlation between population structure and housing prices:the labor force structure, dependency ratio, personal disposable income and price guide with each other; family size, the proportion of non-agricultural population of unilateral guide price changes; prices lead changes in the proportion of employment; sex ratio is not correlated with house prices. (2) Wuhan price is mainly affected by the structure of labor resources, family size and urban-rural structure. (3) household size, personal disposable income, the proportion of non-agricultural population bring long-term impact on housing prices, The structure of labor resources, dependency ratio bring a greater impact in the short term. Finally The article put forward some proposals and the opinion to the Wuhan housing market healthy development.
引文
[1]于弘文.出生婴儿性别比偏高：是统计失实还是事实偏高.人口研究[J],2003(5),25-26
[2]中国人民银行2001年货币政策执行报告
[3]中国台湾“营建署”。住宅专业用语汇编
[4]中国房地产年鉴(1996年-2008年)
[5]王永慧、张丽.未来人口年龄结构变动对住宅需求的影响.西北人口[J],2005(3),6-7
[6]王红.厦门职业教育与人口结构、经济发展的关联模式研究及实证分析[D].硕士学位论文,厦门大学,2007
[7]王秀银.现代人口管理学[M].济南：山东人民出版社,2001
[8]王猛.家庭规模结构与住宅市场.乌鲁木齐职业大学学报[J],2004(6),48-50
[9]白福周.房价上涨影响因素实证分析[D],硕士学位论文,浙江工业大学,2009,47-50
[10]乔晓春.对中国人口普查出生婴儿性别比的分析与思考,人口与经济,1992.2
[11]任正委.人口因素对房地产市场需求的影响——兼论中国房地产业的刚性需求.商场现代化[J],2008(6),258-259
[12]刘光宇.对我国城市住宅商品需求的人口因素分析[D].硕士学位论文,河北大学,2006
[13]刘峥.人口学词典,人民出版社,1986
[14]刘家树.我国人口结构与经济增长关系实证分析.安徽工业大学学报[J],2007(4),229-232
[15]刘颖春.城市化过程中人口变动趋势对我国房地产开发的影响.人口学刊[J],2004(3),45-48
[16]许锋,冯健.城市总体规划人口结构预测分析及其规划启示—以淄博市为例.城市发展研究[J],2006(6),35-42
[17]张龙江.成都市人口结构与住房供应问题研究[D],硕士学位论文,四川大学,2006
[18]李子奈,潘文卿.计量经济学[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2000
[19]李建新.中国人口结构问题[M],北京,社会科学文献出版社,2009
[20]杨文,王巍.探讨济南市人口与房地产业的可持续发展.科技咨询导报[J],2007(10),107-108
[21]杨长江,陈伟浩.微观经济学[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2004,25-30
[22]陈聪,才亚丽.我国人口年龄结构变动对消费结构的影响及对策研究.现代商贸工业[J]，2008(12)：39-40
[23]周军.论房地产业在中国城市化进程中的地位和作用.四川经济管理学院学报[J],2001(1),32-33
[24]杰弗里·萨克斯,费利普·拉雷恩.全球视角的宏观经济学[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1997
[25]武汉市房地产年鉴(1996年-2008年)
[26]武汉统计年鉴(1996年-2008年)
[27]武康平.高级微观经济学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2001,7
[28]范柏乃,来雄祥.中国教育投资与经济增长互动关系的实证研究.浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)[J],2005(4),52-59
[29]哈尔·R.范里安.微观经济学：现代观点[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1991
[30]胡中生.中国大百科全书(社会学),中国大百科全书出版社,1991
[31]赵君丽.人口变化与房地产需求——人口结构变化与房地产周期相关性研究.城市开发[J],2002(8),54-55
[32]涂平.中国第四次人口普查出生登记质量的初步检验,中国人口科学[J],1991.4
[33]黄磊.人口结构对住宅需求的影响——以西安市为例[D],硕士学位论文,西安建筑科技大学,2009年
[34]黄磊.基于人口因素的住宅需求分析.山西建筑[J],2008(11),251-252
[35]董黎明.城市化与住房问题.国外城市规划[J],2001(3),21-24
[36]蒋耒文,任强.中国人口、家庭户与住房需求预测研究.市场与人口分析[J],2005年,11(2),20-29
[37]蒋建林等.城市化与中国房地产业,西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版)[J],2003(4),367-371
[38]谭耀武.广西人口结构变动对消费结构的影响与对策广西社会科学[J],2003(7),51-54
[39]Abraham.J.M Hendershott P H,Patterns and determinants of metropolitan house prices, 1993.77-91.
[40]Aird.J.:Slaughter of Innocents:Coercive Birth Control in China, American Enterprise Institute Press, Washinggton D.C.1990
[41]Bartik.Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?.W.E.Upjohn Institute for Employment Researeh,1991
[42]Brown,R.M. Residential spatial growth with Perfect foresight and multiple income.1984
[43]Burns. The affordability of new homes.AREUEA Journal,1935 (5):209-226
[44]Charles C.L.Boortz. Cyclicality in A Commercial Real Estate Market.
[45]Dag H and E.Naug. What Drive House Priee?.Economic Bulletin,2005,Vol.1:29-41
[46]David H. Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands:Selected lssues.IMF Country RePort,2005,No.05,122-134
[47]Geoffrey Meen The time-series behavior of house prices:a transatlantic divide Journal of Housing Economics,2002 (11)
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[2]中国人民银行2001年货币政策执行报告
[3]中国台湾“营建署”。住宅专业用语汇编
[4]中国房地产年鉴(1996年-2008年)
[5]王永慧、张丽.未来人口年龄结构变动对住宅需求的影响.西北人口[J],2005(3),6-7
[6]王红.厦门职业教育与人口结构、经济发展的关联模式研究及实证分析[D].硕士学位论文,厦门大学,2007
[7]王秀银.现代人口管理学[M].济南：山东人民出版社,2001
[8]王猛.家庭规模结构与住宅市场.乌鲁木齐职业大学学报[J],2004(6),48-50
[9]白福周.房价上涨影响因素实证分析[D],硕士学位论文,浙江工业大学,2009,47-50
[10]乔晓春.对中国人口普查出生婴儿性别比的分析与思考,人口与经济,1992.2
[11]任正委.人口因素对房地产市场需求的影响——兼论中国房地产业的刚性需求.商场现代化[J],2008(6),258-259
[12]刘光宇.对我国城市住宅商品需求的人口因素分析[D].硕士学位论文,河北大学,2006
[13]刘峥.人口学词典,人民出版社,1986
[14]刘家树.我国人口结构与经济增长关系实证分析.安徽工业大学学报[J],2007(4),229-232
[15]刘颖春.城市化过程中人口变动趋势对我国房地产开发的影响.人口学刊[J],2004(3),45-48
[16]许锋,冯健.城市总体规划人口结构预测分析及其规划启示—以淄博市为例.城市发展研究[J],2006(6),35-42
[17]张龙江.成都市人口结构与住房供应问题研究[D],硕士学位论文,四川大学,2006
[18]李子奈,潘文卿.计量经济学[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2000
[19]李建新.中国人口结构问题[M],北京,社会科学文献出版社,2009
[20]杨文,王巍.探讨济南市人口与房地产业的可持续发展.科技咨询导报[J],2007(10),107-108
[21]杨长江,陈伟浩.微观经济学[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2004,25-30
[22]陈聪,才亚丽.我国人口年龄结构变动对消费结构的影响及对策研究.现代商贸工业[J]，2008(12)：39-40
[23]周军.论房地产业在中国城市化进程中的地位和作用.四川经济管理学院学报[J],2001(1),32-33
[24]杰弗里·萨克斯,费利普·拉雷恩.全球视角的宏观经济学[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1997
[25]武汉市房地产年鉴(1996年-2008年)
[26]武汉统计年鉴(1996年-2008年)
[27]武康平.高级微观经济学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2001,7
[28]范柏乃,来雄祥.中国教育投资与经济增长互动关系的实证研究.浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)[J],2005(4),52-59
[29]哈尔·R.范里安.微观经济学：现代观点[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1991
[30]胡中生.中国大百科全书(社会学),中国大百科全书出版社,1991
[31]赵君丽.人口变化与房地产需求——人口结构变化与房地产周期相关性研究.城市开发[J],2002(8),54-55
[32]涂平.中国第四次人口普查出生登记质量的初步检验,中国人口科学[J],1991.4
[33]黄磊.人口结构对住宅需求的影响——以西安市为例[D],硕士学位论文,西安建筑科技大学,2009年
[34]黄磊.基于人口因素的住宅需求分析.山西建筑[J],2008(11),251-252
[35]董黎明.城市化与住房问题.国外城市规划[J],2001(3),21-24
[36]蒋耒文,任强.中国人口、家庭户与住房需求预测研究.市场与人口分析[J],2005年,11(2),20-29
[37]蒋建林等.城市化与中国房地产业,西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版)[J],2003(4),367-371
[38]谭耀武.广西人口结构变动对消费结构的影响与对策广西社会科学[J],2003(7),51-54
[39]Abraham.J.M Hendershott P H,Patterns and determinants of metropolitan house prices, 1993.77-91.
[40]Aird.J.:Slaughter of Innocents:Coercive Birth Control in China, American Enterprise Institute Press, Washinggton D.C.1990
[41]Bartik.Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?.W.E.Upjohn Institute for Employment Researeh,1991
[42]Brown,R.M. Residential spatial growth with Perfect foresight and multiple income.1984
[43]Burns. The affordability of new homes.AREUEA Journal,1935 (5):209-226
[44]Charles C.L.Boortz. Cyclicality in A Commercial Real Estate Market.
[45]Dag H and E.Naug. What Drive House Priee?.Economic Bulletin,2005,Vol.1:29-41
[46]David H. Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands:Selected lssues.IMF Country RePort,2005,No.05,122-134
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