重庆市耕地资源安全与预警研究
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摘要
耕地是一种重要的不可再生资源,保护耕地资源是贯彻落实科学发展观,走可持续发展之路的必然选择,其对促进经济社会协调发展,构建和谐社会有着至关重要的作用。耕地资源问题作为“三农”问题的核心,是农村生产关系的基础,关系到亿万农民的切身利益,直接影响我国经济的发展和社会的稳定。耕地资源安全关乎我国粮食安全、社会安全、生态安全,对区域耕地资源安全运行状况进行研究,既是落实国家耕地保护政策的具体行动,也为确保区域耕地资源可持续利用提供理论依据和现实参考。
本论文在广泛查阅国内外有关耕地资源安全和耕地预警文献资料基础上,运用重庆市土地利用的历史数据,分析了区域土地利用变化特征、演变趋势及其驱动响应机制。在分析重庆市耕地资源利用变化的基础上,从粮食安全和生态安全两个方面分别对重庆市耕地资源安全状况进行了评价;在定性描述耕地资源安全及预警指标体系的基础上,较为系统地提出了区域耕地资源安全及其预警研究的技术体系和研究方法。同时,采取数理统计分析和计量模型等研究方法,采用理论与实践相结合的形式,从理论、方法、指标体系及预警技术等方面对研究区域耕地资源安全及其预警进行系统研究,并提出了促进区域耕地资源健康运行的对策措施,以期对区域耕地资源安全领域的研究提供参考和借鉴。
论文主要包括如下几方面的内容:
1.重庆市耕地资源现状分析。主要从数量、质量、分布、后备耕地资源潜力、耕地资源与农业气候资源的组合五个方面对研究区域耕地资源进行定性分析,在此基础上采用人口承载力对耕地资源现状进行定量评价。
2.重庆市耕地利用变化及其驱动响应分析。主要包括:重庆市耕地利用变化特点及耕地利用存在的问题;重庆市耕地利用变化驱动力及不同利益主体对耕地变化的响应。
3.重庆市耕地资源安全评价。主要从粮食安全保障和生态安全两个角度评价重庆市耕地资源安全状况。前者在对重庆市1997—2006年粮食生产—消费情况进行分析的基础上,对重庆市目前的粮食安全状况作出客观的评价;对影响重庆市耕地粮食产出水平的相关因子进行筛选,构建基于粮食安全保障的耕地安全评价指标体系,预测重庆市在保持一定消费水平条件下2010年、2020年的耕地保有量。运用生态足迹理论中的有关模型,测算出重庆市不同时段、不同区域的耕地人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力、人均生态盈余/赤字及耕地生态安全度,并以此判定重庆市及其市域范围内三大经济区的耕地资源在不同时间段的生态安全状况。
4.耕地资源安全预警研究。主要包括重庆市耕地资源安全预警指标的选择和重庆市耕地资源安全预警等级划分以及重庆市不同时期耕地资源安全预警值的测算等方面内容。具体而言,在对重庆市耕地资源现状分析和耕地资源安全综合评价基础上,选择能够进行预期性评价的指标,并研究确定重庆市耕地资源安全预警的等级。
5.耕地资源安全对策研究。根据重庆市耕地资源安全态势,着重从制定不同主体功能区的耕地保护策略、强化耕地资源保护意识、完善耕地保护法制、创新基本农田保护机制和提高耕地综合生产能力等方面提出耕地资源安全对策。
本论文的主要结论如下:
(1)1997—2006年间,重庆市耕地净减少29.93万hm~2,2006年人均耕地占有量只有全国平均水平的76.42%,耕地资源安全形势较为严峻。同期耕地总体质量略有提高,但土壤肥力变化定点监测结果表明全市局部地区耕地质量近10年来并没有明显提高,反而有所下降。
(2)1997—2006年,重庆市耕地利用程度变化处于调整期。重庆市耕地大量减少和耕地年均变化率快速增长集中在2002—2006年,渝东北各个区县的耕地相对变化率最大,渝东南各个区县的耕地相对化率最小,一小时经济圈的各个区县的耕地相对变化率比较复杂,总体以都市圈为中心,随着与都市圈的距离增加,耕地相对变化率递减趋势。
(3)人口和社会经济因素、农业科技进步因素、农业结构调整和政策制度四大类因素是驱动重庆市耕地利用变化的主要因素。前三类因素长期影响耕地面积变化,并将继续影响未来耕地利用变化,政策制度因素虽然对耕地面积的增加起决定性作用,但只有短期效应,只能在一定程度上缓解社会经济发展与耕地面积减少的矛盾,不能根本扭转耕地面积减少的趋势。
(4)重庆市耕地资源流失具备库兹涅茨曲线特征。从耕地减少数量来看,2006年到2020年重庆市耕地将减少81263.60hm~2,其中2006-2010年将减少57681.83hm~2,2010年到2020年耕地数量将减少23581.77hm~2,2010年以后耕地快速减少的趋势将得到遏制;从耕地递减率看,2006-2020年,耕地年均递减率为0.24%。其中2005-2010年耕地年均递减率相对较高达到0.51%,2010-2020年,耕地年均递减率下降到0.10%,下降幅度较大。
(5)1997—2005年间,重庆市耕地资源的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力的变化趋势基本保持一致,耕地生态安全处于临界状态;但在2006年,重庆市人均生态承载力出现赤字现象,耕地资源生态环境处于不可持续发展状态。
(6)重庆市三大经济区2001—2006年间,耕地人均生态足迹具有如下特点:渝东南＞渝东北＞一小时经济罔:渝东北的人均耕地面积年减少速度最快,一小时经济圈居中,渝东南减少速度最慢;而渝东南地区耕地的平均单产水平提高的速度最快,渝东北最慢;渝东南地区人均生态承载力在逐步提高,而渝东北的人均生态承载力在逐步减少;一小时经济圈的耕地资源生态安全趋势与重庆市基本一致,其安全级别处于临界状态;而渝东北和渝东南均处于不安全状态,但渝东北在三大经济区中,其耕地生态环境最不安全,其耕地变化趋势也最偏离可持续发展“轨道”。
(7)分析测算表明,重庆市2010年和2020年分别需要218.43万hm~2、216.07万hm~2耕地才可以保障区域人口的粮食安全。重庆市2010年、2020年耕地资源安全的预警级别分别处于中警和轻警区间。
此外,论文还对耕地资源保护机制、不同主体功能区的耕地保护重点及目标等方面作了探讨,并提出了以提高耕地综合生产能力为中心、确保耕地数量稳定为前提的耕地资源保护对策。
Cultivated land is an important non-renewable resource. It is an inevitable choice for protecting cultivated land resource. On the one hand, it can comprehensively implement Scientific Outlook on Development and realize the sustainable development of eco-society; on the other hand, it plays an important role in promoting the concordant development of economy and society and building a harmonious socialism society. As the core of the problem of "countryside, farmer and agriculture", the problem of cultivated land resource is not only the basis of the production relations of countryside but also vitally relates to the interests of hundreds of millions peasants.Besides, it has a direct impact on economic development and social stability. The security of cultivated land resource is related to food security, social security, ecological security in china. Conducting researches about regional cultivated land resource can put the cultivated land protection policies into practice and provide a theoretical basis and practical reference for ensuring the sustainable use of land resource.
With full understanding the history and present situation of cultivated land resource security in the region, this article studied the early warning of cultivated land resource in the future, and proposed some countermeasures of cultivated land resource security. On the basis of widely collecting documentations about the cultivated land resource and land security warning in domestic and abroad, the regional land utilization change characteristics, evolution tendency and their drive -response mechanism have been analyzed.Meanwhile, the security circumstance of cultivated land resource is evaluated from food security and ecological security aspects With qualitatively describing the security of cultivated land resources and the early warning indicator-system, this article has systematically proposed the technical system and the research method about the security of regional cultivated land resource and the early warning research.At the same time, the mathematical statistic analysis and econometric model are used to research the security and early warning of regional cultivated land resource, from aspects such as theory、method、indicator-system and early warning technology. At last, countermeasures have been proposed to promote the healthy operation of regional cultivated land resource, which provide reference and advice for further study.
The main contents of this article are as follows:
1. Current situation analysis. The status of cultivated land resource is qualitatively appraised from five aspects: quantity, quality, distribution, potential resource and the combination of cultivated land resource and agricultural climate resource in region. The status of cultivated land resource has been quantitatively evaluated from population supporting capacity.
2. Land utilization change and its drive - response analysis. It mainly included the characteristics and problems of regional land utilization change, as well as the driving force of land use change and response of society, economy and different subjects.
3. Security evaluation of cultivated land resource, which are mainly evaluated from the food security and ecological security. The current food security is objectively evaluated according to grain production consumption from 1997 to 2006. Furthermore, the relevant factors which influence the grain output level are selected, and evaluation indicator-system is constructed. Based on factors and indictor-system, the amount of cultivated land is forecasted in the year of 2010 and 2020, which is maintained to a certain consumption level and a special condition. The model of ecological footprint theory is applied to estimate the per capita ecological footprint, the per capita ecological carrying capacity, and the per capita ecological surplus / deficit and cultivated land ecological security, which is applied to determine the ecological security situation in different periods of time and the three economic regions of Chongqing City.
4. The early warning of cultivated land resource security. The main contents are as follows: indicator selection, grade classification and warning scalar prediction and so on. The evaluating indicators are selected and the early warning grades are set on according to the current situation and comprehensive evaluation of cultivated land resource.
5. Countermeasures of cultivated land resource security. According to current situation of cultivated land resource, the following suggests have been brought forward. Setting down protection strategies of different functions farmland, strengthening awareness of cultivated land protection, perfecting related laws and regulations about cultivated land protection and innovating the mechanism of basic farmland protection, improving the overall production capacity of cultivated.
The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:
(1) A net decrease of farmland was amount to 299300 hm~2 from 1997 to 2006. What is worse, the per capita cultivated land only reached 76.42% of the country's average level. The overall quality of cultivated slightly increased in the same term, but results of soil fertility monitors have showed that the quality of farmland have not markedly improved, but declined to some extent in some areas in nearly ten years.
(2) During the periods of 2002-2006, the large reduction of farmland and the rapid increase of farmland annual average change rate occurred. The degree of land usage change is in the adjustment periods from 1997 to 2006. Among them, the relative rate has changed fastest in northeastern of Chongqing, least in southeast of Chongqing. But the relative rate has changed complicatedly in "One hour Economic Sphere", which center around the Metropolitan Area. With the distance to metropolitan area increasing, the relative change rate of farmland decreased gradually.
(3) Demographic and socio-economic , scientific and technological progress of agriculture、adjustment of agricultural structure and policy systems are four major factors which drive cultivated land usage change. The former three factors have a long-term impact on cultivated land use change. The policy and system factor has played a decisive role in increasing farmland acreage, but it only has a short-term impact. It only alleviates contradiction between the development of society and economy and the reduction of cultivated land to some degree, but can not reverse the declining trend of cultivated land essentially.
(4) The loss of cultivated land resource in Chongqing has displayed a characteristic of Kuznets curve. The decreasing amount of cultivated land will accumulatively reach to 81263.60 hm~2 from 2006 to 2020 in Chongqing City. It will separately reduce 57681.83 hm~2 from 2006 to 2010 and 23581.77 hm~2 from 2010 to 2020. The rapid reducing trend in cultivated land will be restrained afterward 2010; In terms of the declining rate, an annual average declining rate of cultivated land will be 0.24% during the period of 2005-2020, the annual average declining rate of cultivated land will be 0.51% during 2006-2010, which is relatively higher than the rate during 2010-2020.
(5) The per capita ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Chongqing City has displayed a consistent changing trend during 1997-2005, and the ecological security of cultivated land was in a critical state. However, the deficit phenomenon about per capita ecological capacity of cultivated land took place in 2006, which has land resource environment being in an unsustainable state in Chongqing city.
(6) Characteristics that the per capita ecological footprint of cultivated land has displayed are as follows: Southeast of Chongqing > Northeast of Chongqing > One hour Economic Sphere in three economic regions of Chongqing City from 2001 to 2006. The decline rate of per capita cultivated land is fastest in Northeast of Chongqing and slowest in southeast. However, the average yield level is improved rapidly in southeast of Chongqing. The ecological carrying capacity of per capita cultivated land is enhanced gradually in Northeast. In contrast, the ecological carrying is decreased slightly in Southeast of Chongqing. In addition, the per capita ecological capacity of One hour Economic Sphere is the same to that in Chongqing City, which is on a critical ground. The security levels are in a insecurity state in southeast and northeast, and the ecological security of cultivated land is more critical in northeast, which departed from the sustainable track.
(7) The analysis and calculation indicate that it will demand an amount of 2184300hm~2 and 2160700hm~2 cultivated land respectively in 2010 and 2020 in Chongqing city, in order to ensure food security of regional population. The security warning rank of cultivated land resource are in the state of moderation and feebleness in the year of 2010 and that of 2020。
In addition, the mechanisms for cultivated land resources protection, the protecting emphases and object of different functional areas are investigated in the thesis. Furthermore, the protective countermeasures of cultivated land resource are proposed, which can increase the integrated production capacity of cultivated land resource and stabilize the quantity of ensure farmland.
本论文在广泛查阅国内外有关耕地资源安全和耕地预警文献资料基础上,运用重庆市土地利用的历史数据,分析了区域土地利用变化特征、演变趋势及其驱动响应机制。在分析重庆市耕地资源利用变化的基础上,从粮食安全和生态安全两个方面分别对重庆市耕地资源安全状况进行了评价;在定性描述耕地资源安全及预警指标体系的基础上,较为系统地提出了区域耕地资源安全及其预警研究的技术体系和研究方法。同时,采取数理统计分析和计量模型等研究方法,采用理论与实践相结合的形式,从理论、方法、指标体系及预警技术等方面对研究区域耕地资源安全及其预警进行系统研究,并提出了促进区域耕地资源健康运行的对策措施,以期对区域耕地资源安全领域的研究提供参考和借鉴。
论文主要包括如下几方面的内容:
1.重庆市耕地资源现状分析。主要从数量、质量、分布、后备耕地资源潜力、耕地资源与农业气候资源的组合五个方面对研究区域耕地资源进行定性分析,在此基础上采用人口承载力对耕地资源现状进行定量评价。
2.重庆市耕地利用变化及其驱动响应分析。主要包括:重庆市耕地利用变化特点及耕地利用存在的问题;重庆市耕地利用变化驱动力及不同利益主体对耕地变化的响应。
3.重庆市耕地资源安全评价。主要从粮食安全保障和生态安全两个角度评价重庆市耕地资源安全状况。前者在对重庆市1997—2006年粮食生产—消费情况进行分析的基础上,对重庆市目前的粮食安全状况作出客观的评价;对影响重庆市耕地粮食产出水平的相关因子进行筛选,构建基于粮食安全保障的耕地安全评价指标体系,预测重庆市在保持一定消费水平条件下2010年、2020年的耕地保有量。运用生态足迹理论中的有关模型,测算出重庆市不同时段、不同区域的耕地人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力、人均生态盈余/赤字及耕地生态安全度,并以此判定重庆市及其市域范围内三大经济区的耕地资源在不同时间段的生态安全状况。
4.耕地资源安全预警研究。主要包括重庆市耕地资源安全预警指标的选择和重庆市耕地资源安全预警等级划分以及重庆市不同时期耕地资源安全预警值的测算等方面内容。具体而言,在对重庆市耕地资源现状分析和耕地资源安全综合评价基础上,选择能够进行预期性评价的指标,并研究确定重庆市耕地资源安全预警的等级。
5.耕地资源安全对策研究。根据重庆市耕地资源安全态势,着重从制定不同主体功能区的耕地保护策略、强化耕地资源保护意识、完善耕地保护法制、创新基本农田保护机制和提高耕地综合生产能力等方面提出耕地资源安全对策。
本论文的主要结论如下:
(1)1997—2006年间,重庆市耕地净减少29.93万hm~2,2006年人均耕地占有量只有全国平均水平的76.42%,耕地资源安全形势较为严峻。同期耕地总体质量略有提高,但土壤肥力变化定点监测结果表明全市局部地区耕地质量近10年来并没有明显提高,反而有所下降。
(2)1997—2006年,重庆市耕地利用程度变化处于调整期。重庆市耕地大量减少和耕地年均变化率快速增长集中在2002—2006年,渝东北各个区县的耕地相对变化率最大,渝东南各个区县的耕地相对化率最小,一小时经济圈的各个区县的耕地相对变化率比较复杂,总体以都市圈为中心,随着与都市圈的距离增加,耕地相对变化率递减趋势。
(3)人口和社会经济因素、农业科技进步因素、农业结构调整和政策制度四大类因素是驱动重庆市耕地利用变化的主要因素。前三类因素长期影响耕地面积变化,并将继续影响未来耕地利用变化,政策制度因素虽然对耕地面积的增加起决定性作用,但只有短期效应,只能在一定程度上缓解社会经济发展与耕地面积减少的矛盾,不能根本扭转耕地面积减少的趋势。
(4)重庆市耕地资源流失具备库兹涅茨曲线特征。从耕地减少数量来看,2006年到2020年重庆市耕地将减少81263.60hm~2,其中2006-2010年将减少57681.83hm~2,2010年到2020年耕地数量将减少23581.77hm~2,2010年以后耕地快速减少的趋势将得到遏制;从耕地递减率看,2006-2020年,耕地年均递减率为0.24%。其中2005-2010年耕地年均递减率相对较高达到0.51%,2010-2020年,耕地年均递减率下降到0.10%,下降幅度较大。
(5)1997—2005年间,重庆市耕地资源的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力的变化趋势基本保持一致,耕地生态安全处于临界状态;但在2006年,重庆市人均生态承载力出现赤字现象,耕地资源生态环境处于不可持续发展状态。
(6)重庆市三大经济区2001—2006年间,耕地人均生态足迹具有如下特点:渝东南＞渝东北＞一小时经济罔:渝东北的人均耕地面积年减少速度最快,一小时经济圈居中,渝东南减少速度最慢;而渝东南地区耕地的平均单产水平提高的速度最快,渝东北最慢;渝东南地区人均生态承载力在逐步提高,而渝东北的人均生态承载力在逐步减少;一小时经济圈的耕地资源生态安全趋势与重庆市基本一致,其安全级别处于临界状态;而渝东北和渝东南均处于不安全状态,但渝东北在三大经济区中,其耕地生态环境最不安全,其耕地变化趋势也最偏离可持续发展“轨道”。
(7)分析测算表明,重庆市2010年和2020年分别需要218.43万hm~2、216.07万hm~2耕地才可以保障区域人口的粮食安全。重庆市2010年、2020年耕地资源安全的预警级别分别处于中警和轻警区间。
此外,论文还对耕地资源保护机制、不同主体功能区的耕地保护重点及目标等方面作了探讨,并提出了以提高耕地综合生产能力为中心、确保耕地数量稳定为前提的耕地资源保护对策。
Cultivated land is an important non-renewable resource. It is an inevitable choice for protecting cultivated land resource. On the one hand, it can comprehensively implement Scientific Outlook on Development and realize the sustainable development of eco-society; on the other hand, it plays an important role in promoting the concordant development of economy and society and building a harmonious socialism society. As the core of the problem of "countryside, farmer and agriculture", the problem of cultivated land resource is not only the basis of the production relations of countryside but also vitally relates to the interests of hundreds of millions peasants.Besides, it has a direct impact on economic development and social stability. The security of cultivated land resource is related to food security, social security, ecological security in china. Conducting researches about regional cultivated land resource can put the cultivated land protection policies into practice and provide a theoretical basis and practical reference for ensuring the sustainable use of land resource.
With full understanding the history and present situation of cultivated land resource security in the region, this article studied the early warning of cultivated land resource in the future, and proposed some countermeasures of cultivated land resource security. On the basis of widely collecting documentations about the cultivated land resource and land security warning in domestic and abroad, the regional land utilization change characteristics, evolution tendency and their drive -response mechanism have been analyzed.Meanwhile, the security circumstance of cultivated land resource is evaluated from food security and ecological security aspects With qualitatively describing the security of cultivated land resources and the early warning indicator-system, this article has systematically proposed the technical system and the research method about the security of regional cultivated land resource and the early warning research.At the same time, the mathematical statistic analysis and econometric model are used to research the security and early warning of regional cultivated land resource, from aspects such as theory、method、indicator-system and early warning technology. At last, countermeasures have been proposed to promote the healthy operation of regional cultivated land resource, which provide reference and advice for further study.
The main contents of this article are as follows:
1. Current situation analysis. The status of cultivated land resource is qualitatively appraised from five aspects: quantity, quality, distribution, potential resource and the combination of cultivated land resource and agricultural climate resource in region. The status of cultivated land resource has been quantitatively evaluated from population supporting capacity.
2. Land utilization change and its drive - response analysis. It mainly included the characteristics and problems of regional land utilization change, as well as the driving force of land use change and response of society, economy and different subjects.
3. Security evaluation of cultivated land resource, which are mainly evaluated from the food security and ecological security. The current food security is objectively evaluated according to grain production consumption from 1997 to 2006. Furthermore, the relevant factors which influence the grain output level are selected, and evaluation indicator-system is constructed. Based on factors and indictor-system, the amount of cultivated land is forecasted in the year of 2010 and 2020, which is maintained to a certain consumption level and a special condition. The model of ecological footprint theory is applied to estimate the per capita ecological footprint, the per capita ecological carrying capacity, and the per capita ecological surplus / deficit and cultivated land ecological security, which is applied to determine the ecological security situation in different periods of time and the three economic regions of Chongqing City.
4. The early warning of cultivated land resource security. The main contents are as follows: indicator selection, grade classification and warning scalar prediction and so on. The evaluating indicators are selected and the early warning grades are set on according to the current situation and comprehensive evaluation of cultivated land resource.
5. Countermeasures of cultivated land resource security. According to current situation of cultivated land resource, the following suggests have been brought forward. Setting down protection strategies of different functions farmland, strengthening awareness of cultivated land protection, perfecting related laws and regulations about cultivated land protection and innovating the mechanism of basic farmland protection, improving the overall production capacity of cultivated.
The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:
(1) A net decrease of farmland was amount to 299300 hm~2 from 1997 to 2006. What is worse, the per capita cultivated land only reached 76.42% of the country's average level. The overall quality of cultivated slightly increased in the same term, but results of soil fertility monitors have showed that the quality of farmland have not markedly improved, but declined to some extent in some areas in nearly ten years.
(2) During the periods of 2002-2006, the large reduction of farmland and the rapid increase of farmland annual average change rate occurred. The degree of land usage change is in the adjustment periods from 1997 to 2006. Among them, the relative rate has changed fastest in northeastern of Chongqing, least in southeast of Chongqing. But the relative rate has changed complicatedly in "One hour Economic Sphere", which center around the Metropolitan Area. With the distance to metropolitan area increasing, the relative change rate of farmland decreased gradually.
(3) Demographic and socio-economic , scientific and technological progress of agriculture、adjustment of agricultural structure and policy systems are four major factors which drive cultivated land usage change. The former three factors have a long-term impact on cultivated land use change. The policy and system factor has played a decisive role in increasing farmland acreage, but it only has a short-term impact. It only alleviates contradiction between the development of society and economy and the reduction of cultivated land to some degree, but can not reverse the declining trend of cultivated land essentially.
(4) The loss of cultivated land resource in Chongqing has displayed a characteristic of Kuznets curve. The decreasing amount of cultivated land will accumulatively reach to 81263.60 hm~2 from 2006 to 2020 in Chongqing City. It will separately reduce 57681.83 hm~2 from 2006 to 2010 and 23581.77 hm~2 from 2010 to 2020. The rapid reducing trend in cultivated land will be restrained afterward 2010; In terms of the declining rate, an annual average declining rate of cultivated land will be 0.24% during the period of 2005-2020, the annual average declining rate of cultivated land will be 0.51% during 2006-2010, which is relatively higher than the rate during 2010-2020.
(5) The per capita ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Chongqing City has displayed a consistent changing trend during 1997-2005, and the ecological security of cultivated land was in a critical state. However, the deficit phenomenon about per capita ecological capacity of cultivated land took place in 2006, which has land resource environment being in an unsustainable state in Chongqing city.
(6) Characteristics that the per capita ecological footprint of cultivated land has displayed are as follows: Southeast of Chongqing > Northeast of Chongqing > One hour Economic Sphere in three economic regions of Chongqing City from 2001 to 2006. The decline rate of per capita cultivated land is fastest in Northeast of Chongqing and slowest in southeast. However, the average yield level is improved rapidly in southeast of Chongqing. The ecological carrying capacity of per capita cultivated land is enhanced gradually in Northeast. In contrast, the ecological carrying is decreased slightly in Southeast of Chongqing. In addition, the per capita ecological capacity of One hour Economic Sphere is the same to that in Chongqing City, which is on a critical ground. The security levels are in a insecurity state in southeast and northeast, and the ecological security of cultivated land is more critical in northeast, which departed from the sustainable track.
(7) The analysis and calculation indicate that it will demand an amount of 2184300hm~2 and 2160700hm~2 cultivated land respectively in 2010 and 2020 in Chongqing city, in order to ensure food security of regional population. The security warning rank of cultivated land resource are in the state of moderation and feebleness in the year of 2010 and that of 2020。
In addition, the mechanisms for cultivated land resources protection, the protecting emphases and object of different functional areas are investigated in the thesis. Furthermore, the protective countermeasures of cultivated land resource are proposed, which can increase the integrated production capacity of cultivated land resource and stabilize the quantity of ensure farmland.
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