经济福利核算的理论及其指标研究
摘要
改革开放以来，中国经济虽取得持续增长，但近年来的经济福利却未能与之同步。“十二五”规划明确提出“坚持把保障和改善民生作为加快转变经济发展方式的根本出发点和落脚点”，标志着以改善民生为重点的社会建设将成为我国现阶段的主要任务。在这一背景下，本文试图探索构建能客观反映我国经济福利状况的指标体系，数理证明学者武康平（2012）所提出的中国经济福利指标CMEW（ChinaMeasure of Economic Wellfare），在此基础上对近30年来中国经济福利状况进行估算，研究中国经济增长与福利水平的变化趋势，并思考提升居民经济福利的思路与对策。本文遵循“理论研究→实证分析→指标构建→实际应用→政策建议”的基本研究思路，同时采用了数量经济学的分析与建模方法对上述问题展开分析和研究。
具体来说，本文从福利的基本问题出发，逐渐深入地探讨经济福利核算的理论基础，并运用微观数据检验影响经济福利的关键因素及其影响形式，从而为构建中国经济福利指标奠定理论与经验基础。然后在SNA体系下，遵循Nordhaus&Tobbin（1972）提出的研究国民经济福利核算的基本范式，吸取了经济福利指标ISEW与绿色GDP指标中的可持续发展思想，借鉴了Sen（1976）构建公理化福利指标思路以构建中国的经济福利指标体系。因此，在所构建的经济福利指标体系中重点考虑了在国民净收入中消除通货膨胀影响、扣除防御性与工具性支出、考虑可耗竭资源的耗损与环境的破坏等内容，更重要的是，我们所构建的福利指标体现了收入不平等程度对居民经济福利的复杂影响。
在根据所构建的中国经济福利指标CMEW对中国改革开放以来居民经济福利核算的过程中，本文通过可以用来衡量居民经济福利的历年人均消费趋势校准了CMEW指标中的参数a，从而找到衡量收入分配不平等程度的中国最优基尼系数值大致在0.35附近。在通过观察改革开放以来中国实际人均GDP与人均CMEW的变化趋势中，发现中国近年来经济福利增长缓慢，该现象提醒中国政府未来需要谨防Max-Neef（1995）所提出的“门槛假说”在中国的出现。
最后，根据微观检验与宏观核算的结果，本文认为提升居民经济福利的途径至少可以从以下几方面去考虑：通过提高居民收入份额、促进居民消费、改善居民收入分配以及控制可耗竭资源的过度开采与遏制环境的恶化等措施达到提升居民经济福利与经济福利可持续的目的。
China has been experiencing sustainable economic growth since the reform andopening up, while the economic welfare fell behind in recent years.According to theobject proposed by the12th Five Year Plan to guarantee and improve the livelihood ofpeople as the essential starting point and foothold of speeding up the transformation ofeconomic development mode, it means that improving the welfare of the people isplaying a more and more important role during the current stage.In this context, thispaper tries to build the indicator system of economic welfare which can objectivelyreflect the situation in China, proves the evaluation formula of welfare proposed by WuKangping (2012) mathematically, evaluates the situation of economic welfare in Chinaduring the past30years, studies the relationship between economic growth and welfareimprovement, and proposes suggestions on how to improve the resident’s welfare.Under the basic approach of “theoretical research→Empirical Analysis→indicatorconstruction→practical application→policy recommendations ",this paper adopts themodeling methods of econometrics to analyze above issues.
Specifically, from the point of basic concept of welfare, this paper discussesfoundational theories of economic welfare accounting problem, and tests the key factorsand influence forms that influence the economic welfare on micro-data, to providetheoretical and empirical foundations to construct measure of economic welfare forChina. Under the SNA system, following the basic paradigm of national economywelfare accounting proposed by Nordhaus&Tobbin (1972), drawing the concept ofsustainable development in the ISEW and Green GDP indicators of economic welfareindicators, learning the idea of building axiomatic welfare indicator from Sen (1976),this paper builds China's economic welfare indicators. Therefore, our indicator systemof economic welfare focuses to eliminate influence of the inflation, to deduct thespendings of defensive and instrumental expenditure, and to take out the contents of theexhaustible resource depletion and environmental destruction in the net national income.More importantly, our welfare indicator reflects the complex relationship between thedegree of income inequality and the resident economic welfare.
This paper calibrates the parameter a in CMEW with the real per capita consumption which can be used to measure the economic welfare, and shows that theoptimal Gini coefficient in China is roughly near0.35, in the process of evaluating theeconomic welfare during the past years in China. It is obvious that the growth rate ismuch too slow from the relationship of real GDP per capita and CMEW per capita.Therefore, the Chinese government should be vigilant against the "thresholdhypothesis" phenomenon proposed by Max-Neef (1995) in the future.
Finally, according to the results of micro test and macro evaluation, this paperproposes the following approaches to improve the economic welfare of the people andmaintain sustainable economic growth: increasing the income share of the residents,promoting the consumption of the people, amending the income distribution, controllingthe over-exploitation of exhaustible resources and curbing the deterioration of theenvironment.
具体来说，本文从福利的基本问题出发，逐渐深入地探讨经济福利核算的理论基础，并运用微观数据检验影响经济福利的关键因素及其影响形式，从而为构建中国经济福利指标奠定理论与经验基础。然后在SNA体系下，遵循Nordhaus&Tobbin（1972）提出的研究国民经济福利核算的基本范式，吸取了经济福利指标ISEW与绿色GDP指标中的可持续发展思想，借鉴了Sen（1976）构建公理化福利指标思路以构建中国的经济福利指标体系。因此，在所构建的经济福利指标体系中重点考虑了在国民净收入中消除通货膨胀影响、扣除防御性与工具性支出、考虑可耗竭资源的耗损与环境的破坏等内容，更重要的是，我们所构建的福利指标体现了收入不平等程度对居民经济福利的复杂影响。
在根据所构建的中国经济福利指标CMEW对中国改革开放以来居民经济福利核算的过程中，本文通过可以用来衡量居民经济福利的历年人均消费趋势校准了CMEW指标中的参数a，从而找到衡量收入分配不平等程度的中国最优基尼系数值大致在0.35附近。在通过观察改革开放以来中国实际人均GDP与人均CMEW的变化趋势中，发现中国近年来经济福利增长缓慢，该现象提醒中国政府未来需要谨防Max-Neef（1995）所提出的“门槛假说”在中国的出现。
最后，根据微观检验与宏观核算的结果，本文认为提升居民经济福利的途径至少可以从以下几方面去考虑：通过提高居民收入份额、促进居民消费、改善居民收入分配以及控制可耗竭资源的过度开采与遏制环境的恶化等措施达到提升居民经济福利与经济福利可持续的目的。
China has been experiencing sustainable economic growth since the reform andopening up, while the economic welfare fell behind in recent years.According to theobject proposed by the12th Five Year Plan to guarantee and improve the livelihood ofpeople as the essential starting point and foothold of speeding up the transformation ofeconomic development mode, it means that improving the welfare of the people isplaying a more and more important role during the current stage.In this context, thispaper tries to build the indicator system of economic welfare which can objectivelyreflect the situation in China, proves the evaluation formula of welfare proposed by WuKangping (2012) mathematically, evaluates the situation of economic welfare in Chinaduring the past30years, studies the relationship between economic growth and welfareimprovement, and proposes suggestions on how to improve the resident’s welfare.Under the basic approach of “theoretical research→Empirical Analysis→indicatorconstruction→practical application→policy recommendations ",this paper adopts themodeling methods of econometrics to analyze above issues.
Specifically, from the point of basic concept of welfare, this paper discussesfoundational theories of economic welfare accounting problem, and tests the key factorsand influence forms that influence the economic welfare on micro-data, to providetheoretical and empirical foundations to construct measure of economic welfare forChina. Under the SNA system, following the basic paradigm of national economywelfare accounting proposed by Nordhaus&Tobbin (1972), drawing the concept ofsustainable development in the ISEW and Green GDP indicators of economic welfareindicators, learning the idea of building axiomatic welfare indicator from Sen (1976),this paper builds China's economic welfare indicators. Therefore, our indicator systemof economic welfare focuses to eliminate influence of the inflation, to deduct thespendings of defensive and instrumental expenditure, and to take out the contents of theexhaustible resource depletion and environmental destruction in the net national income.More importantly, our welfare indicator reflects the complex relationship between thedegree of income inequality and the resident economic welfare.
This paper calibrates the parameter a in CMEW with the real per capita consumption which can be used to measure the economic welfare, and shows that theoptimal Gini coefficient in China is roughly near0.35, in the process of evaluating theeconomic welfare during the past years in China. It is obvious that the growth rate ismuch too slow from the relationship of real GDP per capita and CMEW per capita.Therefore, the Chinese government should be vigilant against the "thresholdhypothesis" phenomenon proposed by Max-Neef (1995) in the future.
Finally, according to the results of micro test and macro evaluation, this paperproposes the following approaches to improve the economic welfare of the people andmaintain sustainable economic growth: increasing the income share of the residents,promoting the consumption of the people, amending the income distribution, controllingthe over-exploitation of exhaustible resources and curbing the deterioration of theenvironment.
引文
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