论气候变化对我国巨灾保险制度的影响
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摘要
全球气候变暖,各种气候灾害的增加使保险业面临着严峻的考验。最近十多年来因气候灾害引起的保险损失逐渐增大,全球范围内各种自然灾害频繁发生。面对气候变化带来频繁的自然灾害,我国建立切实可行的巨灾保险制度势在必行。本文在阐述了巨灾风险及气候变化的基础上,对巨灾风险再保险精算模型进行了分析,并对巨灾风险再保险最优自留额的确定方法进行了改进,分别做了引入效用函数和熵的两种改进方法,且用实例验证了改进后的两种方法在实务中都是可行的。同时分析研究了日本、美国和挪威等国巨灾保险制度的模式和特征,在气候变化的影响下提出了我国巨灾保险制度的设计探索,最后还就建立我国巨灾保险制度提出了一些对策和建议。
As the world climate turns warmer, and number of various climate hazards increases, the insurance industry is facing a tough test. In the recent ten years, various climate hazard words such like hurricane, flood, snow storm, and earthquake appear more and more frequent, and thereby the insurance costs caused by these climate hazards increase gradually. Under such conditions, people start worry about that whether insurance companies are able to stand the impact caused by the climate change. The world natural damage report in 2008, issued by of ISDR secretary at United Nations, has shown that the death toll and economic loss is triple and double of the average number from 2000 to 2007 respectively.
Our country has spent a disaster year in 2008. Faced to the frequent climate damages, the function of our insurance industry is limited. In the snow storm happen in 2008, the direct economic loss was 1516.5 hundred million, however, the insurance indemnity was only 20 hundred million, which was less than 2% of the total loss. In the Wenchuan earthquake happened on 12th, May in 2008, the direct loss was 8523 hundred million, however, until 10th May, 2009, the insurance indemnity paid was only 11.6 hundred million. These data arise our notice again: Currently the contribution of insurance industry in aid system is too small, and therefore it is urgent and necessary to build up a disaster insurance system.
In this essay, we discussed the basic theory of the huge disaster insurance, and briefly talked about the climate change and its impact. We also shown the actuarial research of huge disaster insurance and reinsurance, and in the meantime analyzed earthquake insurance in Japan, flood insurance in America, and huge disaster insurance in Norway and New Zealand, pointing out the experience and weak points of these foreign insurances, and designing a huge disaster insurance system for our country based on these explorations. This essay consists of five sections.
The first part mainly talked about the background and reality meaning of building up our huge insurance system under the condition that the world climate is changing frequently. We summarized foreign existed researches, and briefly introduced the framework, the main innovative points and some weak points of these researches.
The second part is the summary of the huge disaster risk and the huge disaster insurance. We gave the definition of huge disaster insurance. In the world insurance industry, different countries have different definitions of huge disaster insurance according to their own background and histories. The definition in our country is "huge insurance caused by huge natural disaster, disease transmission, terrorist attack and factious accidents". Secondly, we described characters of the huge disaster insurance, including the huge loss, low happening frequency, and the inapplicability of the probability theory. Thirdly, we introduced two ways for the classification of the huge disaster insurance. According to the frequency, we have normal huge disaster insurance and abnormal huge disaster insurance; and according to the causation of the disaster, we have natural disaster insurance and fractious disaster insurance. Finally, we analyzed the huge economic loss in the whole world and our own country, which is caused by huge climate change in recent years, using data and fact.
We reviewed the history of our huge disaster insurance in our country, analyzed the current situation and some problems in our huge disaster insurance system. Our aid to the disaster mainly depends on the government aid and donation of the society. Finally, we analyzed the necessity and applicability of our country's huge disaster insurance, pointed out from data that our deletion in the risk prevention, and therefore the necessity and urgency for the building up of the huge disaster insurance system.
The third part Impact on the huge disaster risk by the climate disaster.We summarized the climate change according to the IPCC report, showing the rise of both the sea level and the temperature in these years by using data. There are two reasons for these changes. One is the emission of the greenhouse gases, and the other one is the emission of four kinds of greenhouse gases caused by human activities. Finally, we described the impact brought by the climate changes to various areas and continents.
The fourth part Learn and Design of the huge disaster insurance. We talked about the design of the actuarial model of the huge disaster reinsurance, and discussed the retention of the reinsurance. We firstly introduced the traditional way of the retention, and improved it by using utility function and method of entropy. Also, we pointed out that the traditional way is hard to be applied widely in reality, because it doesn't take into account of the risk loving degree of the insurance companies, but only gets the optimal value in the theory. However, after using the utility function and the method of entropy, we throughly consider the risk loving degree, such that although we cut down some profits, but meanwhile largely cut down the risk burdened by the companies, and the degree of cutting down the risk is much greater than that of the profits. Therefore, the two improvement methods in this essay is applicable. The analysis of the earthquake insurance in Japan, flood insurance in America, and huge disaster insurance in Norway and New Zealand.
Part V Design and exploration of the huge disaster insurance in our country under the climate change. Explore and design our country's huge disaster insurance. Firstly, we need to build up the distributed mechanism of the huge disaster insurance, improve the reinsurance service at home and abroad, and let the government to be the last reinsured part. Secondly, we need to build up the fund for the huge disaster, which is sponsored by the center, province, and region governments' finance, and manage them by the individual calculations. Thirdly, we need to explore new insurance policies, which will make the huge disaster insurance separated, and issue some favorable tax treatments, such that with the help of the government, we can bring out a series of mandatory and nonprofit insurance products. Finally, we request the born of bonds in the capital market for the huge disaster insurance, and make the actuarial analysis for this practicability.
We present some proposals for our country's huge disaster insurance system. The first is that we need a correspondingly comprehensive laws. A perfect laws is a powerful protection for the huge disaster insurance system, and either the government's fund or the insurance companies' new insurance services need the laws as their operation basis. The second is that we need to strengthen the public awareness of the insurance. In our country, the aid for the natural disaster usually comes from the government's aid and society's donation. Currently, public awareness of the insurance is insufficient, so, strengthen the awareness is not only of the important influence for the building of the huge disaster insurance system, but also provides a solution for the society problems such as job lost and medication. The third is to cultivate the insurance experts. Because of the amalgamation of traditional insurance and the capital market is an inevitable trend, we request that the actuaries should not only be familiar of the insurance market, but also of the capital market. The fourth is to build up the participation of the insurance from the government, which is the main force, the individuals, the insurance companies, the reinsurance companies and the capita market. Therefore, when the disaster happens, all the forces can participate in, and the risk can be transfered among these participants. The fifth is that both national and market companies should prepare huge disaster risk provisions in order to reinforce the capacity to fight against the huge risk. The sixth is to construct the reinsurance market, especially the international reinsurance market, to distribute the huge risk. Construct the reinsurance market, improve the insurance capacity of our insurance companies, and encourage the entry of overseas reinsurance companies under some conditions , we can decentralize the risk and therefore build a comprehensive huge disaster insurance system.
As the world climate turns warmer, and number of various climate hazards increases, the insurance industry is facing a tough test. In the recent ten years, various climate hazard words such like hurricane, flood, snow storm, and earthquake appear more and more frequent, and thereby the insurance costs caused by these climate hazards increase gradually. Under such conditions, people start worry about that whether insurance companies are able to stand the impact caused by the climate change. The world natural damage report in 2008, issued by of ISDR secretary at United Nations, has shown that the death toll and economic loss is triple and double of the average number from 2000 to 2007 respectively.
Our country has spent a disaster year in 2008. Faced to the frequent climate damages, the function of our insurance industry is limited. In the snow storm happen in 2008, the direct economic loss was 1516.5 hundred million, however, the insurance indemnity was only 20 hundred million, which was less than 2% of the total loss. In the Wenchuan earthquake happened on 12th, May in 2008, the direct loss was 8523 hundred million, however, until 10th May, 2009, the insurance indemnity paid was only 11.6 hundred million. These data arise our notice again: Currently the contribution of insurance industry in aid system is too small, and therefore it is urgent and necessary to build up a disaster insurance system.
In this essay, we discussed the basic theory of the huge disaster insurance, and briefly talked about the climate change and its impact. We also shown the actuarial research of huge disaster insurance and reinsurance, and in the meantime analyzed earthquake insurance in Japan, flood insurance in America, and huge disaster insurance in Norway and New Zealand, pointing out the experience and weak points of these foreign insurances, and designing a huge disaster insurance system for our country based on these explorations. This essay consists of five sections.
The first part mainly talked about the background and reality meaning of building up our huge insurance system under the condition that the world climate is changing frequently. We summarized foreign existed researches, and briefly introduced the framework, the main innovative points and some weak points of these researches.
The second part is the summary of the huge disaster risk and the huge disaster insurance. We gave the definition of huge disaster insurance. In the world insurance industry, different countries have different definitions of huge disaster insurance according to their own background and histories. The definition in our country is "huge insurance caused by huge natural disaster, disease transmission, terrorist attack and factious accidents". Secondly, we described characters of the huge disaster insurance, including the huge loss, low happening frequency, and the inapplicability of the probability theory. Thirdly, we introduced two ways for the classification of the huge disaster insurance. According to the frequency, we have normal huge disaster insurance and abnormal huge disaster insurance; and according to the causation of the disaster, we have natural disaster insurance and fractious disaster insurance. Finally, we analyzed the huge economic loss in the whole world and our own country, which is caused by huge climate change in recent years, using data and fact.
We reviewed the history of our huge disaster insurance in our country, analyzed the current situation and some problems in our huge disaster insurance system. Our aid to the disaster mainly depends on the government aid and donation of the society. Finally, we analyzed the necessity and applicability of our country's huge disaster insurance, pointed out from data that our deletion in the risk prevention, and therefore the necessity and urgency for the building up of the huge disaster insurance system.
The third part Impact on the huge disaster risk by the climate disaster.We summarized the climate change according to the IPCC report, showing the rise of both the sea level and the temperature in these years by using data. There are two reasons for these changes. One is the emission of the greenhouse gases, and the other one is the emission of four kinds of greenhouse gases caused by human activities. Finally, we described the impact brought by the climate changes to various areas and continents.
The fourth part Learn and Design of the huge disaster insurance. We talked about the design of the actuarial model of the huge disaster reinsurance, and discussed the retention of the reinsurance. We firstly introduced the traditional way of the retention, and improved it by using utility function and method of entropy. Also, we pointed out that the traditional way is hard to be applied widely in reality, because it doesn't take into account of the risk loving degree of the insurance companies, but only gets the optimal value in the theory. However, after using the utility function and the method of entropy, we throughly consider the risk loving degree, such that although we cut down some profits, but meanwhile largely cut down the risk burdened by the companies, and the degree of cutting down the risk is much greater than that of the profits. Therefore, the two improvement methods in this essay is applicable. The analysis of the earthquake insurance in Japan, flood insurance in America, and huge disaster insurance in Norway and New Zealand.
Part V Design and exploration of the huge disaster insurance in our country under the climate change. Explore and design our country's huge disaster insurance. Firstly, we need to build up the distributed mechanism of the huge disaster insurance, improve the reinsurance service at home and abroad, and let the government to be the last reinsured part. Secondly, we need to build up the fund for the huge disaster, which is sponsored by the center, province, and region governments' finance, and manage them by the individual calculations. Thirdly, we need to explore new insurance policies, which will make the huge disaster insurance separated, and issue some favorable tax treatments, such that with the help of the government, we can bring out a series of mandatory and nonprofit insurance products. Finally, we request the born of bonds in the capital market for the huge disaster insurance, and make the actuarial analysis for this practicability.
We present some proposals for our country's huge disaster insurance system. The first is that we need a correspondingly comprehensive laws. A perfect laws is a powerful protection for the huge disaster insurance system, and either the government's fund or the insurance companies' new insurance services need the laws as their operation basis. The second is that we need to strengthen the public awareness of the insurance. In our country, the aid for the natural disaster usually comes from the government's aid and society's donation. Currently, public awareness of the insurance is insufficient, so, strengthen the awareness is not only of the important influence for the building of the huge disaster insurance system, but also provides a solution for the society problems such as job lost and medication. The third is to cultivate the insurance experts. Because of the amalgamation of traditional insurance and the capital market is an inevitable trend, we request that the actuaries should not only be familiar of the insurance market, but also of the capital market. The fourth is to build up the participation of the insurance from the government, which is the main force, the individuals, the insurance companies, the reinsurance companies and the capita market. Therefore, when the disaster happens, all the forces can participate in, and the risk can be transfered among these participants. The fifth is that both national and market companies should prepare huge disaster risk provisions in order to reinforce the capacity to fight against the huge risk. The sixth is to construct the reinsurance market, especially the international reinsurance market, to distribute the huge risk. Construct the reinsurance market, improve the insurance capacity of our insurance companies, and encourage the entry of overseas reinsurance companies under some conditions , we can decentralize the risk and therefore build a comprehensive huge disaster insurance system.
引文
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[33]中国人寿推出重大自然灾害意外伤害保险[EB/OL].搜狐财经,[2008-06-13] http://business.sohu.com/20080613/n257479064.shtml
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[2]李伟.世界保险业应对全球气候变化研究动态[J].财经科学,2008(7).
[3]同[2].
[4] Arthur Charpentier.2008“Insurability of Climate Risks”The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance[J].Issues and Practice, vol.33,issue 1,pages 91-109,2008.
[5] Evan Mills .From Risk to Opportunity: Insurer Responses to Climate Change[R].Ceres,2009.
[6]殷仲民,王昕,薛伟贤加拿大巨灾风险管理经验对我国的其实[J].开发研究,2006(2).
[7]庆玲.对完善我国巨灾保险立法的思考[N].四川行政学院学报,2008:5.
[8]史培军.2008年低温雨雪冰冻巨灾看我国巨灾风险防范对策[J].保险研究, 2008(5).
[9]赵慧珺.我国巨灾保险制度何时建立[N].中国保险报,2008(1).
[10]同[2].
[11]李勇权.巨灾保险风险证券化研究[M].中国财政经济出版社,2005(25).
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