山西省低碳经济分部门脱钩指标建构与评估
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摘要
全球气候变化日益成为国际社会普遍关注的重大问题。如何减少碳排放,减缓并甚至遏制以气温增高为主要特征的全球气候变化问题成为目前全人类越来越紧迫需要解决的问题。在这一背景下,低碳经济的概念油然而生。即如何在经济发展过程中,实现以二氧化碳为代表的温室气体的排放量的减少,学术界称之为实现经济与二氧化碳之间关系的“脱钩”构成了目前学术研究的最大课题。其研究意义植根于当下全球气候变化所带给人类的非传统安全威胁。显然,在经济发展过程中实现“去物质化”与“去碳化”,实现可持续发展是人类社会可持续存在的前提,也是经济发展的高级阶段。这一阶段的实现,必须通过实现能源效率提高,提高可再生能源以改进能源结构,减少温室气体排放,优化经济结构以及改进人类消费方式在内的一系列措施的实施才能实现的,而学术研究在实践之前的前瞻性研究就具有了至关重要的意义。
本研究第一部分首先对碳排放与经济之间的关系进行了探讨,引出了低碳经济的产生背景与意义,同时也简要介绍了脱钩概念及相关指标,并提出脱钩指标是测度低碳经济的有效工具。紧接着文章对目前中国所面临的国际形势及碳排放压力进行了分析,并提出削减省级层面的碳排放是目前及将来中国减排的立足点所在。文章对中国内陆地区重要的煤炭化工基地—山西的情况进行了分析,指出了以山西为例对低碳经济发展情况进行测度是区域性具针对性及有效性低碳政策实施的基础性步骤,也是尝试在我国大陆引进低碳经济测评体系的创新步骤,这也就构成了本研究研究的目的所在。
研究第二部分则对脱钩理论进行了文献综述,对环境库兹涅茨曲线、OECD的脱钩模式及Tapio脱钩模式进行了对比分析,其目的在于梳理脱钩模型的发展脉络,追踪国际脱钩指标的最新发展状态,掌握OECD、Tapio等两种国际最新脱钩指标建构方法。该部分对国内外研究成果进行了总结,发现目前脱钩理论及相关指标在国外己广泛应用于测度经济与碳排放之间的压力关系,而目前在中国则大多数应用于节能领域的研究,应用于包括减排在内的经济与碳排放之间压力关系测度的研究比较薄弱,由此,本研究在中国大陆地区以山西省为例的研究就具有了一定的创新性和开拓价值。
文章第三部分则对国际间因应温室气体减排的脱钩政策进行了归纳总结与比较分析,选用工业革命与低碳经济概念的发源地—英国及最大的发达国家——美国为代表国家。英国由于其首先提出“低碳经济”概念,又是工业革命发源地,如今在全球气候变迁领域发挥着领导地位,美国众议院刚刚通过的《美国清洁能源与安全法案》(ACES法案)则代表着美国奥巴马政府崭新的应对全球气候变化政策。最后根据本章各节中各国对于因应温室气体减排的脱钩政策做一比较。其目的在于从中瞭望国际先进国家脱钩政策的制定过程,提供我国政府及相关省(市、区)拟定相关政策的参考。
研究的第四部分根据IPCC推荐的碳排放计算方法计算2000-2007年期间山西工业、建筑业及交通运输及仓储邮政业的碳排放情况,并据此为依据,利用OECD和Tapio的脱钩指标,通过与以1999年不变价计算的2000至2007年间的各个行业的产业GDP之间构建压力关系,进行脱钩情形测度。由于工业、建筑业与交通运输及仓储业是内陆能源大省山西最重要的温室气体排放部门,瞭望其能源消费与温室气体排放形态与特性,有助于提高政策有效性。经由本研究实证分析,获得如下结论：(1)山西工业部门“能源／CO2脱钩因子”逐年整体呈现相对脱钩趋势,代表山西工业部门节能减排成效良好。(2)若以1999年为基准年,山西能源脱钩状态与C02脱钩状态均呈现连结,说明山西省节能减排工作随着山西经济持续快速发展,背负着巨大的压力。(3)山西建筑业通过脱钩分析,其节能减排工作成效最为显著。(4)山西交通运输、仓储及邮政业若以Tapio脱钩指标分析可发现,其减排工作成效大于节能,即山西省交通运输及仓储业部门碳强度效率提高明显大于能源效率提高程度。
文章第五部分基于中国在哥本哈根气候大会上向国际社会做出的到2020年碳排放强度比2005年降低40%—45%的庄严承诺,联系以省级层面进行减排的中国减排现实,通过碳强度及OECD脱钩指标对2020年山西碳排放总量及脱钩情形进行了预测研究,认为山西2020年要实现其碳排放强度在2005基础上下降40%—45%即可有力的促进节能减排工作,发展低碳经济,而这一下降幅度需要通过积极推进经济和产业结构调整、优化能源结构、实施鼓励节能、提高能效等政策措施,不断增加应对气候变化科技研发投入等方面的工作方能实现,其任务任重道远。
文章最后对本研究整体进行了总结,提出了结论与建议,指出了不足与研究方向。
Global climate change is a growing major issues of common concern. How to reduce carbon emissions and slow down and even reverse such global climate change as higher temperatures of the main features is become urgent need for humanity to solve. In this backdrop, the concept of low-carbon economy arises spontaneously. That is how the economic developed, while the carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emission reducing. This type of economic development process is called "decoupling" between the economic and carbon dioxide academically. How to achieve the situation of "decoupling" is the largest academic research topics nowadays. Suan study Significance is rooted in the non-traditional security threats that man must to face,which are brought by current global climate change. Clearly, in the process of economic development to achieve "dematerialization" and "decarbonation" and to achieve continuable development of economics that is the premise of human society continuance. This type of economics is also the economic development of the advanced stage. To achieve this situation, human society must to improve energy efficiency, increase renewable energy proportion to improve the energy structure, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, optimize the economic structure and improving the human consume habit and so on, and prospective study Academic research have a crucial significance before these practice.
The first part of this study discussed the relationship between carbon emissions and economic and educe the concept of low-carbon economy. Also introduced the concept of decoupling and related indicators briefly. This study proposed decoupling indicator are a type of effective tool to measure low carbon economy. Followed This articles following analyze the current international pressure of carbon emissions China faced, and point out the provincial level of reduce carbon emissions reduction is a foothold in China nowadays and future. This article analyze the situation of Shanxi—a important coal chemical industry base in China. This study take Shanxi in case to measure low-carbon economy situation is a basic steps to implement pertinence and validity low-carbon policy in a special zone, This is also a steps with innovative value trying to introduce evaluation system for a low carbon economy in China of Mainland, which is also a meaningful purpose of this study.
The second part of this study summarize the literature of decoupling, compareing environmental Kuznets curve, OECD decoupling mode and Tapio decoupling mode. The purpose is to comb development context of decoupling mode, to pursue the latest developments of decoupling indicators in the international state, also master such as the latest international construction as OECD decoupling indicators and Tapio decoupling indicators of two mode. This part of the study summarized domestic and foreign research results, finding that the current decoupling theory and related indicators have been widely used to measure the pressure relationship between the economy and the carbon emissions. In China, however, the decoupling theory and related indicators are mostly used in the field of energy conservation research, the application on measureing pressure relationship of economy and carbon emissions is relatively weak. Thus, the study of Shanxi Province in mainland China has the innovative and advanced value.
The third part summarized and comparatively analyzed decoupling policy of greenhouse gas reduction of the international. This part selected industrial revolution and the birthplace of the concept of low-carbon economy-the United Kingdom and the biggest development state—The United States., because United Kingdom first put forward the "low-carbon economy" concept, and also is the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, now played a leading role in the field of global climate change. The United States House of Representatives just passed The American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES Act),which represented a new policy of Obama administration. Finally, the sections of this chapter compared decoupling policy of greenhouse gas emissions. This aim is to Outlook policy-making process of the advanced states, to provide our government and the relevant provinces (cities, districts) develop policies for reference.
The fourth part of the carbon emissions refered the IPCC recommended calculation method to calculate carbon emissions of Shanxi industry, construction and transport and storage of postal industry from 2000 to 2007, and accordingly, constructed the pressure relations between the datum of industry GDP of relative at 1999 price and the weight of carbon emissions to estimate situation of decoupling based on OECD and Tapio decoupling indicators from 2000 to 2007. As the industrial, construction and transportation and warehousing sectors are the most important greenhouse gas emitting sectors in Shanxi of energy inland province, to outlook its energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions patterns and characteristics, will help to improve policy effectiveness. This study conclusions are as following:(1) The energy/CO2 decoupling factor of industry in Shanxi province as a whole performed relative decoupling year by year, showing effectiveness on energy-saving and emission-reduction work.(2)If take 1999 as base year, the Energy decoupling state and CO2 decoupling state all showed a link, indicating energy-saving and emission reduction work in Shanxi Province bear tremendous pressure under the sustained and rapid economic development of Shanxi Province.(3) Energy-saving and emission reduction has a obvious effect on the architecture of Shanxi by using decoupling indicator to analyze.(4)Using Tapio decoupling indicators to analyze transportation and warehousing industries in Shanxi province,its emissions-reduction effectiveness is greater than energy-saving, that is, in Shanxi transportation and warehousing sector, the more obvious effectiveness work on carbon intensity than on energy-saving efficiency.
The fifth part article base on the solemn commitments that China makes on Copenhagen climate conference to decrease 40%-45% of carbon emissions intensity in 2020 compared to 2005,and the reality of Chinese emission reduction assignment standed on provincial emission reduction separately. The paper forecasted the total discharge of CO2 emissions and the situation of decoupling that in Shanxi in 2020 by using carbon intensity and the OECD indicators of carbon emissions separtedly. The conclusion is that if the carbon intensity can be down 40%-45% based on 2005,this will effectivly promote energy conservation and emission reduction to promote low carbon economy in Shanxi province.To achieve this situation,must promote economic and industrial restructuring, optimize energy structure and the imple policies and measures of encourage energy conservation and energy efficiency,suah as increasing R & D investment to handle climate change.There is a long way to achieve the target.
Finally,this paper summarized the whole of this study, put forward to conclusions and recommendations, and pointed out the shortage of research.
本研究第一部分首先对碳排放与经济之间的关系进行了探讨,引出了低碳经济的产生背景与意义,同时也简要介绍了脱钩概念及相关指标,并提出脱钩指标是测度低碳经济的有效工具。紧接着文章对目前中国所面临的国际形势及碳排放压力进行了分析,并提出削减省级层面的碳排放是目前及将来中国减排的立足点所在。文章对中国内陆地区重要的煤炭化工基地—山西的情况进行了分析,指出了以山西为例对低碳经济发展情况进行测度是区域性具针对性及有效性低碳政策实施的基础性步骤,也是尝试在我国大陆引进低碳经济测评体系的创新步骤,这也就构成了本研究研究的目的所在。
研究第二部分则对脱钩理论进行了文献综述,对环境库兹涅茨曲线、OECD的脱钩模式及Tapio脱钩模式进行了对比分析,其目的在于梳理脱钩模型的发展脉络,追踪国际脱钩指标的最新发展状态,掌握OECD、Tapio等两种国际最新脱钩指标建构方法。该部分对国内外研究成果进行了总结,发现目前脱钩理论及相关指标在国外己广泛应用于测度经济与碳排放之间的压力关系,而目前在中国则大多数应用于节能领域的研究,应用于包括减排在内的经济与碳排放之间压力关系测度的研究比较薄弱,由此,本研究在中国大陆地区以山西省为例的研究就具有了一定的创新性和开拓价值。
文章第三部分则对国际间因应温室气体减排的脱钩政策进行了归纳总结与比较分析,选用工业革命与低碳经济概念的发源地—英国及最大的发达国家——美国为代表国家。英国由于其首先提出“低碳经济”概念,又是工业革命发源地,如今在全球气候变迁领域发挥着领导地位,美国众议院刚刚通过的《美国清洁能源与安全法案》(ACES法案)则代表着美国奥巴马政府崭新的应对全球气候变化政策。最后根据本章各节中各国对于因应温室气体减排的脱钩政策做一比较。其目的在于从中瞭望国际先进国家脱钩政策的制定过程,提供我国政府及相关省(市、区)拟定相关政策的参考。
研究的第四部分根据IPCC推荐的碳排放计算方法计算2000-2007年期间山西工业、建筑业及交通运输及仓储邮政业的碳排放情况,并据此为依据,利用OECD和Tapio的脱钩指标,通过与以1999年不变价计算的2000至2007年间的各个行业的产业GDP之间构建压力关系,进行脱钩情形测度。由于工业、建筑业与交通运输及仓储业是内陆能源大省山西最重要的温室气体排放部门,瞭望其能源消费与温室气体排放形态与特性,有助于提高政策有效性。经由本研究实证分析,获得如下结论：(1)山西工业部门“能源／CO2脱钩因子”逐年整体呈现相对脱钩趋势,代表山西工业部门节能减排成效良好。(2)若以1999年为基准年,山西能源脱钩状态与C02脱钩状态均呈现连结,说明山西省节能减排工作随着山西经济持续快速发展,背负着巨大的压力。(3)山西建筑业通过脱钩分析,其节能减排工作成效最为显著。(4)山西交通运输、仓储及邮政业若以Tapio脱钩指标分析可发现,其减排工作成效大于节能,即山西省交通运输及仓储业部门碳强度效率提高明显大于能源效率提高程度。
文章第五部分基于中国在哥本哈根气候大会上向国际社会做出的到2020年碳排放强度比2005年降低40%—45%的庄严承诺,联系以省级层面进行减排的中国减排现实,通过碳强度及OECD脱钩指标对2020年山西碳排放总量及脱钩情形进行了预测研究,认为山西2020年要实现其碳排放强度在2005基础上下降40%—45%即可有力的促进节能减排工作,发展低碳经济,而这一下降幅度需要通过积极推进经济和产业结构调整、优化能源结构、实施鼓励节能、提高能效等政策措施,不断增加应对气候变化科技研发投入等方面的工作方能实现,其任务任重道远。
文章最后对本研究整体进行了总结,提出了结论与建议,指出了不足与研究方向。
Global climate change is a growing major issues of common concern. How to reduce carbon emissions and slow down and even reverse such global climate change as higher temperatures of the main features is become urgent need for humanity to solve. In this backdrop, the concept of low-carbon economy arises spontaneously. That is how the economic developed, while the carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emission reducing. This type of economic development process is called "decoupling" between the economic and carbon dioxide academically. How to achieve the situation of "decoupling" is the largest academic research topics nowadays. Suan study Significance is rooted in the non-traditional security threats that man must to face,which are brought by current global climate change. Clearly, in the process of economic development to achieve "dematerialization" and "decarbonation" and to achieve continuable development of economics that is the premise of human society continuance. This type of economics is also the economic development of the advanced stage. To achieve this situation, human society must to improve energy efficiency, increase renewable energy proportion to improve the energy structure, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, optimize the economic structure and improving the human consume habit and so on, and prospective study Academic research have a crucial significance before these practice.
The first part of this study discussed the relationship between carbon emissions and economic and educe the concept of low-carbon economy. Also introduced the concept of decoupling and related indicators briefly. This study proposed decoupling indicator are a type of effective tool to measure low carbon economy. Followed This articles following analyze the current international pressure of carbon emissions China faced, and point out the provincial level of reduce carbon emissions reduction is a foothold in China nowadays and future. This article analyze the situation of Shanxi—a important coal chemical industry base in China. This study take Shanxi in case to measure low-carbon economy situation is a basic steps to implement pertinence and validity low-carbon policy in a special zone, This is also a steps with innovative value trying to introduce evaluation system for a low carbon economy in China of Mainland, which is also a meaningful purpose of this study.
The second part of this study summarize the literature of decoupling, compareing environmental Kuznets curve, OECD decoupling mode and Tapio decoupling mode. The purpose is to comb development context of decoupling mode, to pursue the latest developments of decoupling indicators in the international state, also master such as the latest international construction as OECD decoupling indicators and Tapio decoupling indicators of two mode. This part of the study summarized domestic and foreign research results, finding that the current decoupling theory and related indicators have been widely used to measure the pressure relationship between the economy and the carbon emissions. In China, however, the decoupling theory and related indicators are mostly used in the field of energy conservation research, the application on measureing pressure relationship of economy and carbon emissions is relatively weak. Thus, the study of Shanxi Province in mainland China has the innovative and advanced value.
The third part summarized and comparatively analyzed decoupling policy of greenhouse gas reduction of the international. This part selected industrial revolution and the birthplace of the concept of low-carbon economy-the United Kingdom and the biggest development state—The United States., because United Kingdom first put forward the "low-carbon economy" concept, and also is the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution, now played a leading role in the field of global climate change. The United States House of Representatives just passed The American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES Act),which represented a new policy of Obama administration. Finally, the sections of this chapter compared decoupling policy of greenhouse gas emissions. This aim is to Outlook policy-making process of the advanced states, to provide our government and the relevant provinces (cities, districts) develop policies for reference.
The fourth part of the carbon emissions refered the IPCC recommended calculation method to calculate carbon emissions of Shanxi industry, construction and transport and storage of postal industry from 2000 to 2007, and accordingly, constructed the pressure relations between the datum of industry GDP of relative at 1999 price and the weight of carbon emissions to estimate situation of decoupling based on OECD and Tapio decoupling indicators from 2000 to 2007. As the industrial, construction and transportation and warehousing sectors are the most important greenhouse gas emitting sectors in Shanxi of energy inland province, to outlook its energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions patterns and characteristics, will help to improve policy effectiveness. This study conclusions are as following:(1) The energy/CO2 decoupling factor of industry in Shanxi province as a whole performed relative decoupling year by year, showing effectiveness on energy-saving and emission-reduction work.(2)If take 1999 as base year, the Energy decoupling state and CO2 decoupling state all showed a link, indicating energy-saving and emission reduction work in Shanxi Province bear tremendous pressure under the sustained and rapid economic development of Shanxi Province.(3) Energy-saving and emission reduction has a obvious effect on the architecture of Shanxi by using decoupling indicator to analyze.(4)Using Tapio decoupling indicators to analyze transportation and warehousing industries in Shanxi province,its emissions-reduction effectiveness is greater than energy-saving, that is, in Shanxi transportation and warehousing sector, the more obvious effectiveness work on carbon intensity than on energy-saving efficiency.
The fifth part article base on the solemn commitments that China makes on Copenhagen climate conference to decrease 40%-45% of carbon emissions intensity in 2020 compared to 2005,and the reality of Chinese emission reduction assignment standed on provincial emission reduction separately. The paper forecasted the total discharge of CO2 emissions and the situation of decoupling that in Shanxi in 2020 by using carbon intensity and the OECD indicators of carbon emissions separtedly. The conclusion is that if the carbon intensity can be down 40%-45% based on 2005,this will effectivly promote energy conservation and emission reduction to promote low carbon economy in Shanxi province.To achieve this situation,must promote economic and industrial restructuring, optimize energy structure and the imple policies and measures of encourage energy conservation and energy efficiency,suah as increasing R & D investment to handle climate change.There is a long way to achieve the target.
Finally,this paper summarized the whole of this study, put forward to conclusions and recommendations, and pointed out the shortage of research.
引文
①经济增长率以国内生产总值(GDP)的增长率衡量.
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③高碳省份的“低碳时代”[N／OL].山西省环保厅网站：http://www.sxhb.gov.cn/new/News.asp?class name=新闻动态&class_id=1&news_id=20080.
①《中国能源研究报告—区域篇》[M].北京：中国统计出版社2006年2月第1版
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