中国软件行业服务外包的机理研究与策略分析
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摘要
随着经济全球化与信息技术的发展,在20世纪最后三十余年时间里,国际贸易领域发生了许多突出的变化。其中最重要的变化之一,是出现了以垂直专业化为基础的全球性产品生产协作,即原本集中于一国或一地的产品生产过程,开始分散到不同的国家,每个国家专注于产品的某个特殊环节,这就是全球产品内分工。伴随着这种新的国际分工方式,诞生了企业创新型的生产模式—IT外包。它能够帮助企业在世界范围内寻求更有效的资源配置、降低成本、提高效率,取得更大的竞争优势。外包被管理学家誉为20世纪组织和产业结构最伟大的变革之一。从20世纪90年代开始,随着IT技术的广泛应用,服务的“可贸易”程度不断提高,服务贸易的领域不断拓宽,软件服务外包继制造外包之后,成为了一项新兴的、增长迅速的商务活动。
软件外包是“服务外包”实践的主要推动力量。当面临发达国家经济增长乏力、劳动和商务成本居高不下、市场容量有限的发展瓶颈时,跨国公司在导演了第一轮制造业产业转移之后,正在积极的将更多的服务环节进行全球配给,形成了全球产业转移的第二波浪潮。很多新兴的发展中国家,凭借其劳动力、资源、经济环境、政策法规等方面的优势,成为了跨国公司的服务产业转移首选目的地。在这些服务承接地,跨国公司可以通过两种方式实现服务供应：一种是跨国直接投资,另一种是跨国外包。
外包对于中国并不陌生,我们正是借助制造外包,成为了“世界工厂”。同时,伴随着对外开放不断扩大,与各国的经济联系日益密切,中国逐渐成为其他国家关注的服务外包焦点。因此,深入研究软件服务外包机理和决策,对于指导我国如何在激烈的外包市场竞争中,把握国际机遇,保持领先地位,成为最具吸引力的跨国外包承接地,具有重要意义。
本文在全球产品内分工的背景下,以经济学和管理学的理论为依据,研究软件服务外包的机理、过程、风险、决策策略,以及中国开展软件服务外包产业的优势与建议,希望能提供理论指导和方向指南。全文共分7章,各章具体内容安排如下：第一章是绪论部分,概述了本项研究的背景、内容和方法；第二章是软件服务外包理论已有研究成果的综述；第三章阐述了软件服务外包发展的现状；第四章先利用经济学原理分从宏观层面分析我国软件外包产生的动因,然后采用博弈论分析了完全信息动态博弈模型以及它的均衡状态,深入讨论了IT外包项目中合作双方的博弈关系；第五章以委托代理理论为基础构建数学模型来分析软件外包中如何在信息部不对称下,设计最优契约,来达到双方共赢的目的：第六章是基于改进的神经网络方法在承接商选择中,如何进行筛选、评估。第七章是我国软件外包产业展望与研究总结。
本文的创新主要体现在以下三个方面：第一,通过运用博弈论原理,分析得知软件服务外包决策博弈具有合作的特征,但与合作博弈又有根本差别。不同于零和博弈谈判中的我赢你输的竞争关系,软件服务外包决策的博弈过程具有合作的特征,更多体现出的是正和博弈的状态；完全信息与不完全信息下的服务外包均衡解是有差异的,当今的服务外包的决策均衡接近不完全信息状态下的动态博弈均衡；服务外包合约实质的是一种关系契约(relational contracts)。第二,本研究在规范研究的基础上提出了一些基本原理与假设前提,将不完全信息情况下IT外包中博弈双方的激励因素、奖惩机制分别引入并建立数学模型。通过最优化求解、本文给出了承接商最佳工作努力水平和外包方相应的的最佳激励强度,此时IT外包双方实现了双赢。通过对比信息对称的情况下,风险成本和激励成本的变化,我们很清楚的得知引入监督—奖惩机制能大大降低了外包方的代理成本,这点对外包方采用IT外包,提高企业绩效有一定的借鉴意义。第三,通过阅读大量文献和实地调研我国21个服务外包基地城市,以及走访主要IT外包相关的企业,可知,中国ITO的深入发展,是我国政府强有力推动和企业发展到一定程度必然的结果,它是几股合力共同促成；本文还构建一个基于AHP—BP方法的选择策略,来选择承接商。并通过实证验证了我们模型的有效性。
中国服务外包的发展,无论是理论研究还是实践操作都还处于成长初期,本文从软件产业外包的角度,分析其外包策略,以及它的发展状况。希望得出的一些研究成果,能够对中国发展软件服务外包提供有益的帮助。
With the development of global economy and Information technology, the field of International trade has evolved in significant ways during the last few decades. One of the most important changes is a new production mode based on vertical specialization. We called it Intra-product Specialization which is division of labor within product and professional division of work in different links on multinational productive value chain. This new phenomenon is becoming main manifestation of international division of work and it Outsourcing is becoming the most innovation pattern of production to reduce cost, optimizing arrangement of resource, smooth the industrial chain and improve the core competence. Since 1990s, with the widely application of IT technology and the rapid development of electronic business, Software service Outsourcing following the manufacturing outsourcing, as a new type of the international industry shifting is playing an important role.
Software service Outsourcing is the important power of service outsourcing development. When facing the labor cost, prospects of the market and the development bottleneck of the developed country, multinational corporations have started to accelerate the international transfer of service industry. Depending on the advantage of superior resources, labor force, political policies and economic environments, some emerging economies become the international industry transfer destination. In those countries which is receiving service outsourcing in the world, multinational corporations can receive service products by two ways, the one is foreign direct investment, and the other is international outsourcing.
China is no stranger to outsourcing, though absorbing a lot of international manufacturing shifting; China became "world plant". Due to the rapid development, and service industry has already been regarded as a new economic booming point in China. Thorough studies of the service outsourcing activities and decisions have important significance for China to take international opportunities and become main country receiving service outsourcing in the world.
This paper products in the global division of labor within the context of economics and management science theory as the basis to study the mechanism of software services outsourcing, process, risk, decision-making strategies, and software service outsourcing industry in China to carry out the analysis and suggestions, hoping to provide theoretical guidance and direction guide.
Paper is divided into seven chapters, the specific content of each chapter as follows:The first chapter is the introduction, this study outlines the background, content and methods; second chapter is the software service outsourcing research results have been reviewed; third chapter of the software the status of the development of service outsourcing; fourth chapter in the points from the first use of macro-level economic analysis of the motivation generated by the software outsourcing, and then analyzed using game theory, incomplete information dynamic game model and its equilibrium, in-depth discussion of the IT outsourcing project cooperation between the two sides of the game; Chapter agent theory to build mathematical model to analyze how software outsourcing asymmetry in the Ministry of Information under the optimal contract designed to achieve both win situation; The sixth chapter is based on improved The neural network chosen in the outsourcing business, how to be screened and assessed. Chapter VII of the outlook of China's software outsourcing industry and research summary.
In this paper, the following three aspects of innovation:
1.The Innovation of research perspective:In recent years, based on the context of economic globalization, industrial transfer, IT outsourcing in developing countries have sprung up everywhere, especially in China. The economic restructuring of china has inherent need to adjustment its related industries. However, many domestic enterprises in China just participate in these industries in part. Therefore, how to research on its internal mechanism and risk control is very important. In This paper, we will introduce agency theory, which can combine the macro with micro levels, then to explore the software outsourcing. This unique research perspective is still in the forefront of the current literature, and thus to form the new theoretical theory in this study. This paper argues that software outsourcing has the strong support by Chinese government, through economies of scale, external effects, agglomeration effects and the contract between the micro enterprises, the profit sharing of the mechanism, then the software outsourcing can flourish. The study is carried out under the above framework, it enrich the motivation theory of software outsourcing, and develop a new perspective about IT outsourcing research. At the same time, it reveals the unique properties and formation mechanism of IT outsourcing more objectively and comprehensively.
2.The innovative of research methods:The paper puts forward some fundamental theories and assumptions based on the specification research. It uses reward and punishment mechanism, complete information dynamic game equilibrium and incomplete information dynamic game equilibrium in IT outsourcing incentives under the case of incomplete information game to establish corresponding models. Then this paper will analyze the influencing factors by using optimization, agency theory and Nash equilibrium, in addition, a new AHP-BP select model is erected. It can be used to select the undertake business. And the empirical results validate this model is effective. Generally speaking, the research methods related to motivation for outsourcing analysis, risk control methods, the strategy of partner selection should have some reference value for follow-up study in the future.
3.The innovations of research contents:firstly, by reading a lot of related literatures and investigated service outsourcing based on 21 base cities, as well as visits to major IT outsourcing enterprise, we can see that the depth development of China ITO is the inevitable result by Chinese government strong promotion and enterprise itself development at some extent, which is a promote result by several groups together; Secondly, the decision-making game of software service outsourcing cooperation has cooperate features, but there are fundamental differences between decision-making game and cooperative game. Unlike the negotiations in the zero-sum game, "I win" means "you lose", which is the competition relationship. software services outsourcing decision-making process has co-operative game features, it can reflect the state of positive game; third, there are differences between complete information and incomplete information for service outsourcing equilibrium, today service outsourcing decision-making equilibrium is close to a dynamic game equilibrium within the state of incomplete information. In the case of complete information, there is only one sub-game perfect equilibrium, which means tremendous opportunities for both sides. In incomplete information, there may be two perfect Bayesian equilibrium solutions:Implications for the possibility of establishing an outsourcing depends on the outsourcer decision-making; fourth, we design an optimal contract model, it can guide the companies form outsourcing cooperation effectively, which result in win-win.
China's service outsourcing development, both theory and practice are still at an early stage operation, this article from the perspective of the.software outsourcing industry, analysis of their outsourcing strategy and its development. Want to come to some of the research results to the development of software outsourcing in China to provide useful help.
软件外包是“服务外包”实践的主要推动力量。当面临发达国家经济增长乏力、劳动和商务成本居高不下、市场容量有限的发展瓶颈时,跨国公司在导演了第一轮制造业产业转移之后,正在积极的将更多的服务环节进行全球配给,形成了全球产业转移的第二波浪潮。很多新兴的发展中国家,凭借其劳动力、资源、经济环境、政策法规等方面的优势,成为了跨国公司的服务产业转移首选目的地。在这些服务承接地,跨国公司可以通过两种方式实现服务供应：一种是跨国直接投资,另一种是跨国外包。
外包对于中国并不陌生,我们正是借助制造外包,成为了“世界工厂”。同时,伴随着对外开放不断扩大,与各国的经济联系日益密切,中国逐渐成为其他国家关注的服务外包焦点。因此,深入研究软件服务外包机理和决策,对于指导我国如何在激烈的外包市场竞争中,把握国际机遇,保持领先地位,成为最具吸引力的跨国外包承接地,具有重要意义。
本文在全球产品内分工的背景下,以经济学和管理学的理论为依据,研究软件服务外包的机理、过程、风险、决策策略,以及中国开展软件服务外包产业的优势与建议,希望能提供理论指导和方向指南。全文共分7章,各章具体内容安排如下：第一章是绪论部分,概述了本项研究的背景、内容和方法；第二章是软件服务外包理论已有研究成果的综述；第三章阐述了软件服务外包发展的现状；第四章先利用经济学原理分从宏观层面分析我国软件外包产生的动因,然后采用博弈论分析了完全信息动态博弈模型以及它的均衡状态,深入讨论了IT外包项目中合作双方的博弈关系；第五章以委托代理理论为基础构建数学模型来分析软件外包中如何在信息部不对称下,设计最优契约,来达到双方共赢的目的：第六章是基于改进的神经网络方法在承接商选择中,如何进行筛选、评估。第七章是我国软件外包产业展望与研究总结。
本文的创新主要体现在以下三个方面：第一,通过运用博弈论原理,分析得知软件服务外包决策博弈具有合作的特征,但与合作博弈又有根本差别。不同于零和博弈谈判中的我赢你输的竞争关系,软件服务外包决策的博弈过程具有合作的特征,更多体现出的是正和博弈的状态；完全信息与不完全信息下的服务外包均衡解是有差异的,当今的服务外包的决策均衡接近不完全信息状态下的动态博弈均衡；服务外包合约实质的是一种关系契约(relational contracts)。第二,本研究在规范研究的基础上提出了一些基本原理与假设前提,将不完全信息情况下IT外包中博弈双方的激励因素、奖惩机制分别引入并建立数学模型。通过最优化求解、本文给出了承接商最佳工作努力水平和外包方相应的的最佳激励强度,此时IT外包双方实现了双赢。通过对比信息对称的情况下,风险成本和激励成本的变化,我们很清楚的得知引入监督—奖惩机制能大大降低了外包方的代理成本,这点对外包方采用IT外包,提高企业绩效有一定的借鉴意义。第三,通过阅读大量文献和实地调研我国21个服务外包基地城市,以及走访主要IT外包相关的企业,可知,中国ITO的深入发展,是我国政府强有力推动和企业发展到一定程度必然的结果,它是几股合力共同促成；本文还构建一个基于AHP—BP方法的选择策略,来选择承接商。并通过实证验证了我们模型的有效性。
中国服务外包的发展,无论是理论研究还是实践操作都还处于成长初期,本文从软件产业外包的角度,分析其外包策略,以及它的发展状况。希望得出的一些研究成果,能够对中国发展软件服务外包提供有益的帮助。
With the development of global economy and Information technology, the field of International trade has evolved in significant ways during the last few decades. One of the most important changes is a new production mode based on vertical specialization. We called it Intra-product Specialization which is division of labor within product and professional division of work in different links on multinational productive value chain. This new phenomenon is becoming main manifestation of international division of work and it Outsourcing is becoming the most innovation pattern of production to reduce cost, optimizing arrangement of resource, smooth the industrial chain and improve the core competence. Since 1990s, with the widely application of IT technology and the rapid development of electronic business, Software service Outsourcing following the manufacturing outsourcing, as a new type of the international industry shifting is playing an important role.
Software service Outsourcing is the important power of service outsourcing development. When facing the labor cost, prospects of the market and the development bottleneck of the developed country, multinational corporations have started to accelerate the international transfer of service industry. Depending on the advantage of superior resources, labor force, political policies and economic environments, some emerging economies become the international industry transfer destination. In those countries which is receiving service outsourcing in the world, multinational corporations can receive service products by two ways, the one is foreign direct investment, and the other is international outsourcing.
China is no stranger to outsourcing, though absorbing a lot of international manufacturing shifting; China became "world plant". Due to the rapid development, and service industry has already been regarded as a new economic booming point in China. Thorough studies of the service outsourcing activities and decisions have important significance for China to take international opportunities and become main country receiving service outsourcing in the world.
This paper products in the global division of labor within the context of economics and management science theory as the basis to study the mechanism of software services outsourcing, process, risk, decision-making strategies, and software service outsourcing industry in China to carry out the analysis and suggestions, hoping to provide theoretical guidance and direction guide.
Paper is divided into seven chapters, the specific content of each chapter as follows:The first chapter is the introduction, this study outlines the background, content and methods; second chapter is the software service outsourcing research results have been reviewed; third chapter of the software the status of the development of service outsourcing; fourth chapter in the points from the first use of macro-level economic analysis of the motivation generated by the software outsourcing, and then analyzed using game theory, incomplete information dynamic game model and its equilibrium, in-depth discussion of the IT outsourcing project cooperation between the two sides of the game; Chapter agent theory to build mathematical model to analyze how software outsourcing asymmetry in the Ministry of Information under the optimal contract designed to achieve both win situation; The sixth chapter is based on improved The neural network chosen in the outsourcing business, how to be screened and assessed. Chapter VII of the outlook of China's software outsourcing industry and research summary.
In this paper, the following three aspects of innovation:
1.The Innovation of research perspective:In recent years, based on the context of economic globalization, industrial transfer, IT outsourcing in developing countries have sprung up everywhere, especially in China. The economic restructuring of china has inherent need to adjustment its related industries. However, many domestic enterprises in China just participate in these industries in part. Therefore, how to research on its internal mechanism and risk control is very important. In This paper, we will introduce agency theory, which can combine the macro with micro levels, then to explore the software outsourcing. This unique research perspective is still in the forefront of the current literature, and thus to form the new theoretical theory in this study. This paper argues that software outsourcing has the strong support by Chinese government, through economies of scale, external effects, agglomeration effects and the contract between the micro enterprises, the profit sharing of the mechanism, then the software outsourcing can flourish. The study is carried out under the above framework, it enrich the motivation theory of software outsourcing, and develop a new perspective about IT outsourcing research. At the same time, it reveals the unique properties and formation mechanism of IT outsourcing more objectively and comprehensively.
2.The innovative of research methods:The paper puts forward some fundamental theories and assumptions based on the specification research. It uses reward and punishment mechanism, complete information dynamic game equilibrium and incomplete information dynamic game equilibrium in IT outsourcing incentives under the case of incomplete information game to establish corresponding models. Then this paper will analyze the influencing factors by using optimization, agency theory and Nash equilibrium, in addition, a new AHP-BP select model is erected. It can be used to select the undertake business. And the empirical results validate this model is effective. Generally speaking, the research methods related to motivation for outsourcing analysis, risk control methods, the strategy of partner selection should have some reference value for follow-up study in the future.
3.The innovations of research contents:firstly, by reading a lot of related literatures and investigated service outsourcing based on 21 base cities, as well as visits to major IT outsourcing enterprise, we can see that the depth development of China ITO is the inevitable result by Chinese government strong promotion and enterprise itself development at some extent, which is a promote result by several groups together; Secondly, the decision-making game of software service outsourcing cooperation has cooperate features, but there are fundamental differences between decision-making game and cooperative game. Unlike the negotiations in the zero-sum game, "I win" means "you lose", which is the competition relationship. software services outsourcing decision-making process has co-operative game features, it can reflect the state of positive game; third, there are differences between complete information and incomplete information for service outsourcing equilibrium, today service outsourcing decision-making equilibrium is close to a dynamic game equilibrium within the state of incomplete information. In the case of complete information, there is only one sub-game perfect equilibrium, which means tremendous opportunities for both sides. In incomplete information, there may be two perfect Bayesian equilibrium solutions:Implications for the possibility of establishing an outsourcing depends on the outsourcer decision-making; fourth, we design an optimal contract model, it can guide the companies form outsourcing cooperation effectively, which result in win-win.
China's service outsourcing development, both theory and practice are still at an early stage operation, this article from the perspective of the.software outsourcing industry, analysis of their outsourcing strategy and its development. Want to come to some of the research results to the development of software outsourcing in China to provide useful help.
引文
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