国际货币制度视角下的货币危机机理研究
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摘要
自20世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系崩溃以来,国际货币体系进入了浮动汇率合法化的牙买加体系时代。至此,国际货币制度经历了从国际金本位制→布雷顿森林体系→牙买加体系的演变过程。每一次国际货币制度的演变,无不伴随着某种形式的货币危机。尤其是20世纪90年代后期以来,世界范围内货币危机频发,因此,对各种类型货币危机发生机理、传导途径及防范措施的研究再次引起了理论界的重视;货币危机、金融危机的频发,也引发了人们对当前国际货币制度有效性的再思考。伴随着欧元的顺利启动、拉美美元化趋势扩展及东亚货币合作的不断深入,国际货币制度即将进入美元区域化兼国际化、欧元欧洲化兼国际化、东亚货币合作化的三大国际区域货币并存的发展阶段。
本文即从国际货币制度演变的视角,顺沿国际货币制度发展、更迭的过程,详细分析每种国际货币制度下货币危机的形成机理。本文主要包括这样几部分:首先,对论文中涉及到的重要概念给予界定,并对货币危机理论进行系统梳理;接着,按时间顺序从总体上回忆国际货币制度的历史演进;然后,用三个章节分别研究了固定汇率制度、浮动汇率制度以及中间汇率制度下货币危机的形成机理,其中,固定汇率制度下的货币危机主要包括国际金本位制度和布雷顿森林体系的崩溃,以及欧洲货币体系的瓦解;浮动汇率制度下的货币危机,则重点分析了自由浮动汇率制度下汇率的过度波动问题;中间汇率制度下的货币危机,分别分析了区域美元本位及货币局制度下货币危机的发生机理;最后,分析了目前新型区域货币合作模式出现的必然性,及各模式下如何规避货币危机。
基于国际货币制度演变视角,分析历次货币危机的深层次原因,我们发现国际货币制度的演变发展遵循着否定之否定的原则,在固定汇率和浮动汇率之间不断更迭;国际货币体系也经历了自发形成到人为地建立起国际间的协调原则的过程。通过对不同汇率制度下典型货币危机发生机理的研究,得到这样的结论:以贵金属黄金或某一强国货币作为国际本位货币的国际货币制度是行不通的,是终将走向灭亡的,国际货币体系未来的变革趋势应该是创造一种既不依赖于黄金、又不依赖于某一单一强国货币的超主权的世界货币,以避免主权世界货币的内在缺陷;而目前出现的国际间区域货币合作模式,则是国际货币制度演变的必经阶段。
Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods System in the 70s of 20th century, the international monetary system has entered in Jamaica System, in which floating exchange rate becomes legitimate. Since then, the international monetary system has gone through from the international gold standard to Bretton Woods System, then the Jamaica System. Every evolution was accompanied by some form of currency crisis. Especially in the second half of 90's of last century, the worldwide currency crises broke out frequently. So the study of the mechanism and contagion path and preventive measures of various types of currency crises has aroused the attention of the theory circle once again, and the rethinking of the effectiveness of Jamaica System. Along with the smooth startup of the euro, the expansion of dollarization in Latin America and evolution of East Asian monetary cooperation, the international monetary system is entering a new stage, which is characterized by the regionalization and internationalization of U.S., the Europeanization and internationalization of euro, co-operation of East Asian currencies.
In this paper, with the perspective of the evolution of international monetary system, a detailed analysis of the mechanism of currency crises under each type international monetary system will be made. This paper includes several parts: first, some important concepts of the thesis have been defined, a theoretical overview of currency crisis has been finished; then, we have described the history of the international monetary system; later, three chapes have been arranged to discuss the mechanism of currency crisis under fixed and floating and intermediate exchange rate system respectively. The part of the fixed exchange rate system mainly includes the analysis of the collapse of the international gold standard system, the Bretton Woods system and the the European Monetary System; in the part of the floating exchange rate system, the volatility problem under freely floating exchange rate system has been studied; the part of the intermediate exchange rate system mainly includes the analysis of currency crises in regional dollar standard system and the currency board system. And finally, we have analysed the inevitability of the appearance of new type regional monetary cooperation patterns, and how these cooperations avoid currency crises.
Based on the perspective of the evolution of the international monetary system, we have analysed the deep-rooted reasons of typical currency crises, then we find that the evolution of the international monetary system follows the principle of negation of negation, changes between the fixed and the floating exchange rate. The international monetary system has also experienced a process from spontaneously formed to artificially established. After the study of the mechanism of typical currency crises under different exchange rate regimes, we obtain the conclusion that it is unfeasible to use gold or some strong currency as international currency standard. The future trends of reform must be the creation of a new international currency which is independent of gold and some strong currency, this reform can avoid the inherent defects of monetary sovereignty as the international currency. While the appearance of international and regional monetary cooperation is a necessary step in the evolution of international monetary system.
本文即从国际货币制度演变的视角,顺沿国际货币制度发展、更迭的过程,详细分析每种国际货币制度下货币危机的形成机理。本文主要包括这样几部分:首先,对论文中涉及到的重要概念给予界定,并对货币危机理论进行系统梳理;接着,按时间顺序从总体上回忆国际货币制度的历史演进;然后,用三个章节分别研究了固定汇率制度、浮动汇率制度以及中间汇率制度下货币危机的形成机理,其中,固定汇率制度下的货币危机主要包括国际金本位制度和布雷顿森林体系的崩溃,以及欧洲货币体系的瓦解;浮动汇率制度下的货币危机,则重点分析了自由浮动汇率制度下汇率的过度波动问题;中间汇率制度下的货币危机,分别分析了区域美元本位及货币局制度下货币危机的发生机理;最后,分析了目前新型区域货币合作模式出现的必然性,及各模式下如何规避货币危机。
基于国际货币制度演变视角,分析历次货币危机的深层次原因,我们发现国际货币制度的演变发展遵循着否定之否定的原则,在固定汇率和浮动汇率之间不断更迭;国际货币体系也经历了自发形成到人为地建立起国际间的协调原则的过程。通过对不同汇率制度下典型货币危机发生机理的研究,得到这样的结论:以贵金属黄金或某一强国货币作为国际本位货币的国际货币制度是行不通的,是终将走向灭亡的,国际货币体系未来的变革趋势应该是创造一种既不依赖于黄金、又不依赖于某一单一强国货币的超主权的世界货币,以避免主权世界货币的内在缺陷;而目前出现的国际间区域货币合作模式,则是国际货币制度演变的必经阶段。
Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods System in the 70s of 20th century, the international monetary system has entered in Jamaica System, in which floating exchange rate becomes legitimate. Since then, the international monetary system has gone through from the international gold standard to Bretton Woods System, then the Jamaica System. Every evolution was accompanied by some form of currency crisis. Especially in the second half of 90's of last century, the worldwide currency crises broke out frequently. So the study of the mechanism and contagion path and preventive measures of various types of currency crises has aroused the attention of the theory circle once again, and the rethinking of the effectiveness of Jamaica System. Along with the smooth startup of the euro, the expansion of dollarization in Latin America and evolution of East Asian monetary cooperation, the international monetary system is entering a new stage, which is characterized by the regionalization and internationalization of U.S., the Europeanization and internationalization of euro, co-operation of East Asian currencies.
In this paper, with the perspective of the evolution of international monetary system, a detailed analysis of the mechanism of currency crises under each type international monetary system will be made. This paper includes several parts: first, some important concepts of the thesis have been defined, a theoretical overview of currency crisis has been finished; then, we have described the history of the international monetary system; later, three chapes have been arranged to discuss the mechanism of currency crisis under fixed and floating and intermediate exchange rate system respectively. The part of the fixed exchange rate system mainly includes the analysis of the collapse of the international gold standard system, the Bretton Woods system and the the European Monetary System; in the part of the floating exchange rate system, the volatility problem under freely floating exchange rate system has been studied; the part of the intermediate exchange rate system mainly includes the analysis of currency crises in regional dollar standard system and the currency board system. And finally, we have analysed the inevitability of the appearance of new type regional monetary cooperation patterns, and how these cooperations avoid currency crises.
Based on the perspective of the evolution of the international monetary system, we have analysed the deep-rooted reasons of typical currency crises, then we find that the evolution of the international monetary system follows the principle of negation of negation, changes between the fixed and the floating exchange rate. The international monetary system has also experienced a process from spontaneously formed to artificially established. After the study of the mechanism of typical currency crises under different exchange rate regimes, we obtain the conclusion that it is unfeasible to use gold or some strong currency as international currency standard. The future trends of reform must be the creation of a new international currency which is independent of gold and some strong currency, this reform can avoid the inherent defects of monetary sovereignty as the international currency. While the appearance of international and regional monetary cooperation is a necessary step in the evolution of international monetary system.
引文
①国际金本位制度下,各国间汇率波动的上下限受到黄金输出、输入点的限制。
②根据IMF官方网站:http://www.imf.org/external/np/mfd/er/2004/eng/1204.htm。
①Agenor, Bhandari和Flood(1992),金洪飞(2001)提供了相关综述。(Agenor Pierre-Richard, Jagdeep S. Bhandari and Robert P. Flood. Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises[J/OL].NBER Working Paper,No.W3919,http://www.nber.org/papers/w3919,1992;金洪飞.货币危机理论综述[J].当代经济科学,2001(23):34-43.)
②但文中没解释为什么政府会执行这种具有不确定性的扩张的信贷政策。Penati和Pennachi(1989)认为这可能与政府对铸币税的需求有关。(Penati Alessandro and George Pennacchi. Optimal Portfolio Choice and the Collapse of a Fixed-Exchange Rate Regime[J].Journal of International Economics,1989,27(1-2):1-24.)
①第二代货币危机理论的部分文献综述参考了金洪飞(2002)。(金洪飞.新兴市场货币危机机理研究[D]:[博士学位论文].北京:清华大学数量经济学,2002.)
1 ①有关“双危机”或称“共生危机”理论的文献综述主要来自周先平(2006)。(周先平.共生危机理论研究评述[J].经济学动态,2006(5):99-102.)
②货币制度的基本内容主要参考胡庆康(2006)。(胡庆康.现代货币银行学教程[M].第3版.上海:复旦大学出版社,2006.11-14.)
①对此问题的研究重要的文献包括Ehsan U. Choudhri and Levis A. Kochin,”The Exchange Rate and the International Transmission of Business Cycle Disturbances:Some Evidence from the Great Depression,”Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking 12(1980),pp.565-574,Peter Temin,Lessons from the Great Depression (Cambridge,MA:MIT Press,1989),and Barry Eichengreen,Golden Fetters:The Gold Standard and the Great Depression,1919-1939(New York:Oxford University Press,1992),Ben S. Bernanke,”The World on a Cross of Gold:A Review of‘Golden Fetters:The Gold Standard and the Great Depression,1919-1939,’”Journal of Monetary Economics 31(April 1993),pp.251-267。
②事实上,当时英国尚存一些与美国讨价还价的能力;英美两国政府在1943年4月7日分别在伦敦和华盛顿发表了各自从本国利益出发设计的战后国际货币新秩序的方案,即英国的“凯恩斯计划”和美国的“怀特计划”;但由于美国在政治和经济上的实力远超过英国,英国被迫接受美国的方案,同时,美国也对英国作了一些让步。(刘力臻.国际金融危机四重分析[M].长春:东北师范大学出版社,2002.40-42.)
①参见Triffin,Gold and the Dollar Crisis,New Haven:Yale University Press,1960。
②具体分类参见Ghosh,Gulde and Wol(f2003)。(Atish R. Ghosh, Anne-Marie Gulde, and Holger C. Wolf. Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences[M]. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press,2003.)
①根据IMF官方网站:http://www.imf.org/external/np/mfd/er/2004/eng/1204.htm。
①[英]卡拉姆·亨德森.亚洲在衰退·朱宝宪等译.北京:机械工业出版社,1998.57。
①关于汇率的长期预测,参见Menzie D. Chinn和Richard A. Meese(1995),以及Nelson C. Mark(1995)。(Menzie D. Chinn and Richard A. Meese. Banking on Currency Forecasts: How Predictable Is Change in Money?[J]. Journal of International Economics, 1995(38):161-178;Nelson C. Mark. Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability[J]. American Economic Review, 1995,85(1):201-218.)
①参见Richard A. Mees(e1986)和Kenneth D. Wes(t1987)(。Richard A. Meese. Testing for Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case of Sparkling Rates?[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1986,94(2):345-373;Kenneth D. West. A Standard Monetary Model and the Variability of the Deutschemark-Dollar Exchange Rate[J]. Journal of International Economics, 1987(23):57-76.)
①但Krugman本人后来对道德风险引发亚洲危机的观点给予了否定,参考Krugman,1999a。(Krugman, Paul. The Return of Depression Economics[J].Foreign Affairs, 1999a,78(1):56-74.)
①相关综述来自Sweta C. Saxena and Kar-yiu Wong(1999)。(Sweta C. Saxena and Kar-yiu Wong. Currency Crises and Capital Controls: A Selective Survey[J/OL]. University of Washington, http://faculty.washington.edu/karyiu/papers/crisis-sur.pdf, January 2, 1999.)
①更多关于货币局制度的操作原理参见Bali?o,et al(1997)and Enoch and Gulde(1997)。(Bali?o, Tomás J.T., Charles Enoch, et al. Currency Board Arrangements: Issues and Experiences[J]. IMF Occasional Paper, Washington, August,151,1997;Enoch, Charles and Anne-Marie Gulde. Making a Currency Board Operational[J/OL]. IMF Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment, Washington, November, 97/10, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ppaa/ppaa9710.pdf,1997.)
②Collins(1996)讨论了在固定汇率体系下,为什么贬值会引发政治成本。(Collins, Susan M. On Becoming More Flexible: Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean[J].Journal of Development Economics, 1996(51):117-138.)
③Rivera Batiz and Sy(2000)通过不同的方法建模了货币局体系的可信性。(Rivera Batiz, Luis A. and Amadou N.R. Sy. Currency Boards, Credibility, and Macroeconomic Behaviour[J/OL]. IMF Working Paper, Washington, June, WP/00/97, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2000/wp0097.pdf, 2000.)
①具体证明过程可参考原文Gregor Irwin(2001)附录。(Gregor Irwin. Currency Boards and Currency Crises[J/OL]. University College and Department of Economics, University of Oxford, http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/research/WP/PDF/paper065.pdf,January,2001.)
②参见Gregor Irwin(2001)脚注13。
①关于特里芬的国际货币改革思想和国际货币合作理论的论述主要参考了李富有(2004)。(李富有.区域货币合作:理论、实践与亚洲的选择[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2004:28-32.)
①有关最优货币区标准的理论综述,主要参考了李富有(2004)、祝丹涛(2005)。(李富有.区域货币合作:理论、实践与亚洲的选择[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2004:44-52;祝丹涛.最优货币区批判性评析[J].世界经济,2005(1):17-34.)
①有关Hamada模型的基本理论主要参考了李富有(2004)。(李富有.区域货币合作:理论、实践与亚洲的选择[M]. 北京:中国金融出版社,2004:34-39.)
①有关欧元模式特征的总结参考了刘力臻(2003)。(刘力臻.论国际区域货币合作[J].税务与经济,2003(3):1-5.)
①欧洲货币合作模式的成因和历史背景主要参考了李富有(2004)。(李富有.区域货币合作:理论、实践与亚洲的选择[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2004:95-97.)
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②根据IMF官方网站:http://www.imf.org/external/np/mfd/er/2004/eng/1204.htm。
①Agenor, Bhandari和Flood(1992),金洪飞(2001)提供了相关综述。(Agenor Pierre-Richard, Jagdeep S. Bhandari and Robert P. Flood. Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises[J/OL].NBER Working Paper,No.W3919,http://www.nber.org/papers/w3919,1992;金洪飞.货币危机理论综述[J].当代经济科学,2001(23):34-43.)
②但文中没解释为什么政府会执行这种具有不确定性的扩张的信贷政策。Penati和Pennachi(1989)认为这可能与政府对铸币税的需求有关。(Penati Alessandro and George Pennacchi. Optimal Portfolio Choice and the Collapse of a Fixed-Exchange Rate Regime[J].Journal of International Economics,1989,27(1-2):1-24.)
①第二代货币危机理论的部分文献综述参考了金洪飞(2002)。(金洪飞.新兴市场货币危机机理研究[D]:[博士学位论文].北京:清华大学数量经济学,2002.)
1 ①有关“双危机”或称“共生危机”理论的文献综述主要来自周先平(2006)。(周先平.共生危机理论研究评述[J].经济学动态,2006(5):99-102.)
②货币制度的基本内容主要参考胡庆康(2006)。(胡庆康.现代货币银行学教程[M].第3版.上海:复旦大学出版社,2006.11-14.)
①对此问题的研究重要的文献包括Ehsan U. Choudhri and Levis A. Kochin,”The Exchange Rate and the International Transmission of Business Cycle Disturbances:Some Evidence from the Great Depression,”Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking 12(1980),pp.565-574,Peter Temin,Lessons from the Great Depression (Cambridge,MA:MIT Press,1989),and Barry Eichengreen,Golden Fetters:The Gold Standard and the Great Depression,1919-1939(New York:Oxford University Press,1992),Ben S. Bernanke,”The World on a Cross of Gold:A Review of‘Golden Fetters:The Gold Standard and the Great Depression,1919-1939,’”Journal of Monetary Economics 31(April 1993),pp.251-267。
②事实上,当时英国尚存一些与美国讨价还价的能力;英美两国政府在1943年4月7日分别在伦敦和华盛顿发表了各自从本国利益出发设计的战后国际货币新秩序的方案,即英国的“凯恩斯计划”和美国的“怀特计划”;但由于美国在政治和经济上的实力远超过英国,英国被迫接受美国的方案,同时,美国也对英国作了一些让步。(刘力臻.国际金融危机四重分析[M].长春:东北师范大学出版社,2002.40-42.)
①参见Triffin,Gold and the Dollar Crisis,New Haven:Yale University Press,1960。
②具体分类参见Ghosh,Gulde and Wol(f2003)。(Atish R. Ghosh, Anne-Marie Gulde, and Holger C. Wolf. Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences[M]. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press,2003.)
①根据IMF官方网站:http://www.imf.org/external/np/mfd/er/2004/eng/1204.htm。
①[英]卡拉姆·亨德森.亚洲在衰退·朱宝宪等译.北京:机械工业出版社,1998.57。
①关于汇率的长期预测,参见Menzie D. Chinn和Richard A. Meese(1995),以及Nelson C. Mark(1995)。(Menzie D. Chinn and Richard A. Meese. Banking on Currency Forecasts: How Predictable Is Change in Money?[J]. Journal of International Economics, 1995(38):161-178;Nelson C. Mark. Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability[J]. American Economic Review, 1995,85(1):201-218.)
①参见Richard A. Mees(e1986)和Kenneth D. Wes(t1987)(。Richard A. Meese. Testing for Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case of Sparkling Rates?[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1986,94(2):345-373;Kenneth D. West. A Standard Monetary Model and the Variability of the Deutschemark-Dollar Exchange Rate[J]. Journal of International Economics, 1987(23):57-76.)
①但Krugman本人后来对道德风险引发亚洲危机的观点给予了否定,参考Krugman,1999a。(Krugman, Paul. The Return of Depression Economics[J].Foreign Affairs, 1999a,78(1):56-74.)
①相关综述来自Sweta C. Saxena and Kar-yiu Wong(1999)。(Sweta C. Saxena and Kar-yiu Wong. Currency Crises and Capital Controls: A Selective Survey[J/OL]. University of Washington, http://faculty.washington.edu/karyiu/papers/crisis-sur.pdf, January 2, 1999.)
①更多关于货币局制度的操作原理参见Bali?o,et al(1997)and Enoch and Gulde(1997)。(Bali?o, Tomás J.T., Charles Enoch, et al. Currency Board Arrangements: Issues and Experiences[J]. IMF Occasional Paper, Washington, August,151,1997;Enoch, Charles and Anne-Marie Gulde. Making a Currency Board Operational[J/OL]. IMF Paper on Policy Analysis and Assessment, Washington, November, 97/10, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ppaa/ppaa9710.pdf,1997.)
②Collins(1996)讨论了在固定汇率体系下,为什么贬值会引发政治成本。(Collins, Susan M. On Becoming More Flexible: Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean[J].Journal of Development Economics, 1996(51):117-138.)
③Rivera Batiz and Sy(2000)通过不同的方法建模了货币局体系的可信性。(Rivera Batiz, Luis A. and Amadou N.R. Sy. Currency Boards, Credibility, and Macroeconomic Behaviour[J/OL]. IMF Working Paper, Washington, June, WP/00/97, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2000/wp0097.pdf, 2000.)
①具体证明过程可参考原文Gregor Irwin(2001)附录。(Gregor Irwin. Currency Boards and Currency Crises[J/OL]. University College and Department of Economics, University of Oxford, http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/research/WP/PDF/paper065.pdf,January,2001.)
②参见Gregor Irwin(2001)脚注13。
①关于特里芬的国际货币改革思想和国际货币合作理论的论述主要参考了李富有(2004)。(李富有.区域货币合作:理论、实践与亚洲的选择[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2004:28-32.)
①有关最优货币区标准的理论综述,主要参考了李富有(2004)、祝丹涛(2005)。(李富有.区域货币合作:理论、实践与亚洲的选择[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2004:44-52;祝丹涛.最优货币区批判性评析[J].世界经济,2005(1):17-34.)
①有关Hamada模型的基本理论主要参考了李富有(2004)。(李富有.区域货币合作:理论、实践与亚洲的选择[M]. 北京:中国金融出版社,2004:34-39.)
①有关欧元模式特征的总结参考了刘力臻(2003)。(刘力臻.论国际区域货币合作[J].税务与经济,2003(3):1-5.)
①欧洲货币合作模式的成因和历史背景主要参考了李富有(2004)。(李富有.区域货币合作:理论、实践与亚洲的选择[M].北京:中国金融出版社,2004:95-97.)
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