东亚外汇储备规模问题研究
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摘要
近年全球外汇储备规模迅速扩大,其中东亚地区表现最为突出,对该地区外汇储备最优规模进行研究具有一定的理论和现实意义。东亚政治、经济和文化的多样性和复杂性,使其选择一条具有特色的经济发展道路。作为发达国家产业的主要承接者,东亚采用以区域产业循环机制为基础的生产模式加快经济建设。同时,出于自身金融安全的考虑,东亚主要国家或地区选择隐蔽性的钉住美元汇率制度。另外,东亚金融危机后,东亚金融合作进展缓慢。上述原因使东亚地区积累高额外汇储备作为危机预防工具。分析东亚国际储备资产、国际收支和国际清偿力等基本经济情况后发现,东亚积累高额外汇储备是必要的,并具有一定的延续性。通过传统指标和建模对外汇储备规模进行判断发现,东亚主要经济体外汇储备存量已超过最优规模。对此,在分析东亚具体外汇储备管理机制后,从建设东亚外汇储备库和发展主权财富基金两个角度提出有效管理外汇储备,实现收益最大化的手段。最后,针对中国特殊国情,对外汇储备规模和经济影响进行分析,并提出相关政策建议。
After the 1990s, the global distribution pattern of foreign exchange reserves has changed dramatically. The United States and other developed countries are no longer the major holders of foreign exchange reserves, Asia, Latin America and other emerging economies change the past foreign exchange reserve situation, so that the scale of foreign exchange continued to expand and eventually occupy more than 65% share of the world. Among them, especially changes in foreign exchange reserves in East Asia. In the East Asian financial crisis, East Asia's foreign exchange reserves growth rate far exceeds the rest of the world, the end of 2008, foreign exchange reserves in East Asia accounted for about one-third share of the world. This phenomenon means that the East Asian economies have to integrate into the international financial system, economic growth and successes in the international economic status has improved. But behind the prosperity of the problems that caused us to ponder: First, the global flow of foreign exchange reserves to the root causes of the East Asian region out of its external debt, trade, or pay for their own crisis prevention? East Asian countries such as Japan, emerging market powers such as China, speed up foreign exchange reserves are there, what is the reason behind this result? Analysis from the East as a whole, what is the reason for the East Asian economies, so the same behavior? Second, which level should East Asian foreign exchange reserves? Third, the high foreign exchange reserves in East Asia brought hinder their development, means or measures should be adopted to deal with? Fourth, China is now the largest foreign exchange reserves as a holder of high foreign exchange reserves of the national economy is adversely affected? Should China adopt specific measures?
This article with the above problems, take an objective, rigorous academic research approach, using qualitative and quantitative analysis, historical experience and the real condition of the camera combined with mathematical analysis and quantitative analysis method of combining the use of SPSS14.0 and EVIEWS6 .0 measuring statistical software such as the establishment of statistical, mathematical models and measurement issues related to foreign exchange reserves in East Asia to conduct feasibility studies and analysis.
Throughout the Evolution of international reserves, precious metals gold and silver Deng was once a synonym for wealth, for the attention of all countries, national economic strength, gold or silver storage capacity of the embodiment of international reserves also gold and silver Wei Zhu. With economic development, despite the absolute law precious metals reimbursement capability as an important component of international reserves, but a variety of "key money" has entered the list of countries in international reserves to meet the needs of external payments. After the 1970s, the U.S. dollar, British pound and the euro and other international currencies and gold together to support the normal functioning of the international financial system, foreign exchange reserves in the ratio of international reserves in the growing and more distributed in the Asian emerging market countries. The reason for East Asia to enhance the economic strength and international industry mechanism for the formation of international industrial cycle continued accumulation of foreign exchange reserves into the power source, in this basis, the sustainability of global economic imbalances so that this situation is not in the short term nature of change will occur. In-depth study within the economic system in East Asia found that although East Asia tend to float foreign exchange system, but still remain hidden in fact pegged to the dollar the state, which to some extent increase the demand for foreign exchange reserves in East Asia. However, not enough to explain the reasons for post-2000 surge in foreign exchange reserves in East Asia, in fact, the East Asian regional economic development process, the financial system is relatively backward to the lack of a crisis prevention tool, which makes the economies in the East Asian financial crisis After the crisis created a strong demand for preventive, large accumulation of foreign reserves. Specific analysis, and larger demand on the foreign exchange reserves, the higher the more imperfect financial market development needs of the foreign exchange reserves, the higher the greater the external financial pressures the greater the demand on the foreign exchange reserves, which by the principal component analysis of the East Asian region The analysis is also discussed.
East Asia's foreign exchange reserves caused by high growth and large-scale financial institutions, governments and international concern, but the scale of foreign exchange reserves, the existence of ideal or optimal standards, how to designate this standard become a research problem. Combination of characteristics and factors affecting foreign exchange reserves, the analysis can be found, the state external economic environment and economic development within the circumstances of their different degrees. East Asian foreign exchange reserves to ensure the optimal size of a comprehensive and objective study, this paper, qualitative and quantitative analysis with the method discussed, and the mathematical model of the major economies of East Asia's foreign exchange reserves to judge the size. Overall, East Asian international reserves in U.S. dollars, Japanese yen and the euro and other foreign currency reserve assets, mainly when compared to Western countries will hold high-quality gold and special drawing rights and other international reserves of the majority. The East Asian economies, financial market development in general lagged behind the international credit rating lower external financing capacity is inadequate to provide the necessary short-term funding guarantee. Analysis of the major economies of East Asia can be found in the international balance of payments, current account surplus will be a long time, and as economic conditions improve, the international investment in the ASEAN and China tend to have high investment potential in China. Meanwhile, the East Asia special economic, cultural and political environment in the process of making slow progress in financial cooperation in East Asia. The above analysis is that East Asia's foreign exchange reserves will continue to maintain growth in a period of time, to maintain the high scale of foreign exchange reserves. The foreign exchange reserves for the East Asian economies, the scale of the main quantitative analysis shows that in the traditional "rule of thumb", the East Asian foreign exchange reserves have far exceeded the level of the necessary scale. Traditional analysis, an analysis of the problem is often more one-sided, narrow, relatively homogeneous factors to consider. Comprehensive analysis of these characteristics can see, the East Asian foreign exchange reserves by many factors, but the most fundamental factors that storage root causes of foreign exchange reserves - crisis prevention needs. On this basis, based on Jeanne (2007) crisis prevention model to scale analysis of East Asia's foreign exchange reserves, the major economies of East Asia foreign exchange reserves exceeded the needs of crisis prevention, the total size of surplus. Various factors considered, even if not yet the East Asian foreign exchange reserves should be reasonable over the management and control.
The world's foreign exchange reserves management system have different features, different options according to their own characteristics different management approach. International reserves to gold and other developed countries, mainly in East Asia's foreign exchange reserves different countries, hence the choice between the different management system. Even within the East Asian economies, but also according to their need to choose a different foreign exchange reserves management. Overall, foreign exchange reserves of East Asian economies comprehensive analysis found that the East Asian region as a whole and by the East Asian economies within countries to manage foreign exchange reserves in two ways. On the one hand, East Asia should actively set up a regional reserve pool to cope with external economic shocks, to avoid the country caused by excessive reserves of waste; the other hand, the economies of East Asia should proceed from its own characteristics, appropriate to enhance the development of sovereign wealth funds revenue reserves.
Hold foreign exchange reserves of China as East Asia's largest economy, the impact of its high foreign exchange reserves by the most obvious, and rational policy measures to deal with foreign exchange reserves of China and the whole of East Asia have important practical significance. China since 1940 after the founding of the ongoing foreign exchange system reform to meet the growing economy, but in 2000, China's foreign exchange reserves continue to exceed the optimal size and to maintain an upward trend. High foreign exchange reserves on China, a great impact on the economy itself. First, the mandatory exchange settlement system, the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves will affect the base currency and thus are not conducive to the implementation of China's monetary policy, influence policy effectiveness. Second, high foreign exchange reserves rise to Foreign Exchange Reserves to increase and expand the volume of currency issued, once the hedging policy is invalid or not increment the monetary compensation will increase domestic inflation rate is not conducive to overall economic development. Third, the high foreign exchange reserves to China brought a strong appreciation pressure, governments and international public opinion demands the incessant appreciation, China's own system of restrictions so that the pressure continued to enlarge. Therefore, if properly handled will hinder China's economic and effective, orderly and healthy development. In this regard, China should actively participate in East Asian foreign exchange reserves, library building, to enhance its international status; sovereign wealth funds to develop and improve the efficiency of foreign exchange assets; deepen the foreign exchange system, so that more effective management of foreign exchange reserves.
After the 1990s, the global distribution pattern of foreign exchange reserves has changed dramatically. The United States and other developed countries are no longer the major holders of foreign exchange reserves, Asia, Latin America and other emerging economies change the past foreign exchange reserve situation, so that the scale of foreign exchange continued to expand and eventually occupy more than 65% share of the world. Among them, especially changes in foreign exchange reserves in East Asia. In the East Asian financial crisis, East Asia's foreign exchange reserves growth rate far exceeds the rest of the world, the end of 2008, foreign exchange reserves in East Asia accounted for about one-third share of the world. This phenomenon means that the East Asian economies have to integrate into the international financial system, economic growth and successes in the international economic status has improved. But behind the prosperity of the problems that caused us to ponder: First, the global flow of foreign exchange reserves to the root causes of the East Asian region out of its external debt, trade, or pay for their own crisis prevention? East Asian countries such as Japan, emerging market powers such as China, speed up foreign exchange reserves are there, what is the reason behind this result? Analysis from the East as a whole, what is the reason for the East Asian economies, so the same behavior? Second, which level should East Asian foreign exchange reserves? Third, the high foreign exchange reserves in East Asia brought hinder their development, means or measures should be adopted to deal with? Fourth, China is now the largest foreign exchange reserves as a holder of high foreign exchange reserves of the national economy is adversely affected? Should China adopt specific measures?
This article with the above problems, take an objective, rigorous academic research approach, using qualitative and quantitative analysis, historical experience and the real condition of the camera combined with mathematical analysis and quantitative analysis method of combining the use of SPSS14.0 and EVIEWS6 .0 measuring statistical software such as the establishment of statistical, mathematical models and measurement issues related to foreign exchange reserves in East Asia to conduct feasibility studies and analysis.
Throughout the Evolution of international reserves, precious metals gold and silver Deng was once a synonym for wealth, for the attention of all countries, national economic strength, gold or silver storage capacity of the embodiment of international reserves also gold and silver Wei Zhu. With economic development, despite the absolute law precious metals reimbursement capability as an important component of international reserves, but a variety of "key money" has entered the list of countries in international reserves to meet the needs of external payments. After the 1970s, the U.S. dollar, British pound and the euro and other international currencies and gold together to support the normal functioning of the international financial system, foreign exchange reserves in the ratio of international reserves in the growing and more distributed in the Asian emerging market countries. The reason for East Asia to enhance the economic strength and international industry mechanism for the formation of international industrial cycle continued accumulation of foreign exchange reserves into the power source, in this basis, the sustainability of global economic imbalances so that this situation is not in the short term nature of change will occur. In-depth study within the economic system in East Asia found that although East Asia tend to float foreign exchange system, but still remain hidden in fact pegged to the dollar the state, which to some extent increase the demand for foreign exchange reserves in East Asia. However, not enough to explain the reasons for post-2000 surge in foreign exchange reserves in East Asia, in fact, the East Asian regional economic development process, the financial system is relatively backward to the lack of a crisis prevention tool, which makes the economies in the East Asian financial crisis After the crisis created a strong demand for preventive, large accumulation of foreign reserves. Specific analysis, and larger demand on the foreign exchange reserves, the higher the more imperfect financial market development needs of the foreign exchange reserves, the higher the greater the external financial pressures the greater the demand on the foreign exchange reserves, which by the principal component analysis of the East Asian region The analysis is also discussed.
East Asia's foreign exchange reserves caused by high growth and large-scale financial institutions, governments and international concern, but the scale of foreign exchange reserves, the existence of ideal or optimal standards, how to designate this standard become a research problem. Combination of characteristics and factors affecting foreign exchange reserves, the analysis can be found, the state external economic environment and economic development within the circumstances of their different degrees. East Asian foreign exchange reserves to ensure the optimal size of a comprehensive and objective study, this paper, qualitative and quantitative analysis with the method discussed, and the mathematical model of the major economies of East Asia's foreign exchange reserves to judge the size. Overall, East Asian international reserves in U.S. dollars, Japanese yen and the euro and other foreign currency reserve assets, mainly when compared to Western countries will hold high-quality gold and special drawing rights and other international reserves of the majority. The East Asian economies, financial market development in general lagged behind the international credit rating lower external financing capacity is inadequate to provide the necessary short-term funding guarantee. Analysis of the major economies of East Asia can be found in the international balance of payments, current account surplus will be a long time, and as economic conditions improve, the international investment in the ASEAN and China tend to have high investment potential in China. Meanwhile, the East Asia special economic, cultural and political environment in the process of making slow progress in financial cooperation in East Asia. The above analysis is that East Asia's foreign exchange reserves will continue to maintain growth in a period of time, to maintain the high scale of foreign exchange reserves. The foreign exchange reserves for the East Asian economies, the scale of the main quantitative analysis shows that in the traditional "rule of thumb", the East Asian foreign exchange reserves have far exceeded the level of the necessary scale. Traditional analysis, an analysis of the problem is often more one-sided, narrow, relatively homogeneous factors to consider. Comprehensive analysis of these characteristics can see, the East Asian foreign exchange reserves by many factors, but the most fundamental factors that storage root causes of foreign exchange reserves - crisis prevention needs. On this basis, based on Jeanne (2007) crisis prevention model to scale analysis of East Asia's foreign exchange reserves, the major economies of East Asia foreign exchange reserves exceeded the needs of crisis prevention, the total size of surplus. Various factors considered, even if not yet the East Asian foreign exchange reserves should be reasonable over the management and control.
The world's foreign exchange reserves management system have different features, different options according to their own characteristics different management approach. International reserves to gold and other developed countries, mainly in East Asia's foreign exchange reserves different countries, hence the choice between the different management system. Even within the East Asian economies, but also according to their need to choose a different foreign exchange reserves management. Overall, foreign exchange reserves of East Asian economies comprehensive analysis found that the East Asian region as a whole and by the East Asian economies within countries to manage foreign exchange reserves in two ways. On the one hand, East Asia should actively set up a regional reserve pool to cope with external economic shocks, to avoid the country caused by excessive reserves of waste; the other hand, the economies of East Asia should proceed from its own characteristics, appropriate to enhance the development of sovereign wealth funds revenue reserves.
Hold foreign exchange reserves of China as East Asia's largest economy, the impact of its high foreign exchange reserves by the most obvious, and rational policy measures to deal with foreign exchange reserves of China and the whole of East Asia have important practical significance. China since 1940 after the founding of the ongoing foreign exchange system reform to meet the growing economy, but in 2000, China's foreign exchange reserves continue to exceed the optimal size and to maintain an upward trend. High foreign exchange reserves on China, a great impact on the economy itself. First, the mandatory exchange settlement system, the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves will affect the base currency and thus are not conducive to the implementation of China's monetary policy, influence policy effectiveness. Second, high foreign exchange reserves rise to Foreign Exchange Reserves to increase and expand the volume of currency issued, once the hedging policy is invalid or not increment the monetary compensation will increase domestic inflation rate is not conducive to overall economic development. Third, the high foreign exchange reserves to China brought a strong appreciation pressure, governments and international public opinion demands the incessant appreciation, China's own system of restrictions so that the pressure continued to enlarge. Therefore, if properly handled will hinder China's economic and effective, orderly and healthy development. In this regard, China should actively participate in East Asian foreign exchange reserves, library building, to enhance its international status; sovereign wealth funds to develop and improve the efficiency of foreign exchange assets; deepen the foreign exchange system, so that more effective management of foreign exchange reserves.
引文
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