气候变化对中国北方针叶林森林火灾的影响
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摘要
本文以中国东北大兴安岭地区北方针叶林为研究对象,利用Delta及WGEN二种统计降尺度方法时间解集HadCM3 IPCC SRES A2a和B2a情景下气候基准时段(1961-1990年)与未来不同时段(2020s,2010-2039年；2050s,2040-2069年；2080s,2070-2099年)的逐月的最高温度、相对湿度、降水和风速数据,将得到的逐日天气数据经过参数率定和应用检验的加拿大火险天气指标系统,结合其输出的FWI和SSR指标与林火动态因子的统计相关性,在假设林火动态对当前及未来气候变化具有相同响应方式的基础上,定量和定性相结合预估未来该区北方针叶林林火状况的潜在变化趋势。结果表明：
IPCC SRES A2a、B2a情景下,21世纪大兴安岭地区森林火险天气、森林火险等级、过火面积显著增加,其增加的幅度随着采用的IPCC SRES的情景、选取的降尺度方法以及选择的研究时期的不同而不同,但无论是哪种排放情景驱动下,无论是哪种统计降尺度模拟结果,也无论是未来哪段研究时期都显示其整体相对于基准年(1961-1990年)呈增加趋势,且这种增加趋势可能会随着时间的推进更加明显。
大兴安岭地区21世纪3时段每30年FWI均值可能呈现一致增加趋势,与基准情景的(1961-1990年)相比,通过DW法模拟的各时段年均FWI值可能增加了近2成；DA法可能增加近5成。到21世纪后期,在DW SRES A2a下,年均FWI值可能增加超3成；DA SRES A2a下,年均FWI可能增加超7成。
在同时期同排放情景下,春季防火期的FWI均值最大。DW下,夏季FWI值的增幅可能最明显,平均增加可能超3成。到21世纪后期,DW SRES A2a下,夏季防火期FWI值FWI均值可能增加超1倍。DA下,秋季的增幅可能最明显,平均增加可能超4成。到21世纪后期,DA SRESA2a下,秋季防火期FWI均值可能增加近1倍。
DW下,2050s和2080s时段各月FWI均值总体呈现增加趋势,月均FWI可能增加超3成。其中,7、8月可能增加的幅度最大,到21世纪后期,A2a情景下FWI值可能分别增加近1.5倍和超2倍。DA下,21世纪3时段各月FWI均值呈现一致增加趋势,月均FWI可能增加超3成。其中,7、8、11和12月可能增加的幅度最大,到21世纪后期,A2a情景下FWI值可能分别增加约1.2倍、1.2倍、1倍和1.1倍。
HadCM3模式在SRES A2a和B2a情景下,通过DW和DA法模拟未来火险等级日变化差异较大。DW SRES A2a和B2a下,平均年极高、高火险日数日数相对于基准年都呈增加趋势；而DA SRES A2a下,DW SRES A2a和B2a下,平均年极高、高火险日数都呈减少趋势。
CFFWIS输出SSR值与1966-2008年研究区的历史过火面积存在显著相关(r,0.16-0.61),SSR增值能作为过火面积增量指标。大兴安岭地区21世纪3时段每30年SSR均值呈现一致增加趋势,与基准情景的(1961-1990年)相比,通过DW法模拟的各时段年均SSR值可能增加了近3成；DA可能增加了超5成。到21世纪后期,在DW SRES A2a下,年均SSR值可能增加超7成；DA SRES A2a下,年均SSR值可能增加超1倍。
春季防火期的SSR均值最大。DW下,夏季的增幅可能最明显,平均增加可能超4成。到21世纪后期,DW SRES A2a下,夏季防火期SSR均值增加可能超1.5倍。DW下,夏、秋季的增幅可能同样明显,夏季平均可能增加超7成,秋季平均可能增加约8成。到21世纪后期,DA SRES A2a下,夏、秋季防火期SSR值可能分别增加约1.7倍和1.5倍；DA SRES A2a下,SSR均值均可能增加超1倍。
This study chose the Great Xing'an Mountains boreal forests of northeastern China as research object. Monthly projections such as maximum temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed were used from the Hadley Centre's General Circulation Model HadCM3, using two climate scenarios (A2a and B2a) for both the baseline period of 1961-1990 (referred to as 1980s) and the future scenario periods (the period 2010-2039 referred to as 2020s, the period 2040-2069 referred to as 2050s, the period 2070-2099 referred to as 2080s), then downscaled by the delta change methods and weather generator to represent daily finer local climate variability. Before FWI and SSR were projected, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System was first calibrated and validated using both local weather data and fire data. This study made a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the variation trend of fire dangers and fire regime in Great Xing'an Mountains boreal forests, assuming that the fire regime respond to future warming similar to the manner during the past century.
A significant increase in fire weather, fire danger rating and area burned were found for the 21st century in Great Xing'an Mountains under IPCC scenarios (A2a and B2a), and theirs rate of increase varied with the emissions scenarios, statistical downscaling methods and study periods. Whichever emissions scenarios, statistical downscaling methods or study periods were chosen, an increasing trend of fire severity was found, relative to the figure of the baseline period of 1961-1990. Moreover, the trend would be more evident as time goes by.
As for the yearly time scale, almost all annual mean FWI demonstrated an increasing pattern under the two climate change scenarios for the three future periods over the 21st century in study region, compared to the figure of the baseline period of 1961-1990. Under DW methods, the annual mean FWI was predicted to rise by about 20% and it would go up by about 30% by the end of this century. Under DA, it was predicted to rise by over 50% and over 70% by the end of this century.
In the same period and emission scenarios, the seasonal mean FWI suggested that the study region would experience the highest fire danger in spring fire season. Under DW, the highest increase of the FWI would happen in summer fire season, the seasonal mean FWI was predicted to rise by over 30% and it would double by the end of this century. Under DA, the highest increase of the FWI would happen in autumn fire season, the seasonal mean FWI was predicted to rise by over 40% and it would double by the end of this century.
Under DW, the monthly mean FWI would have an increasing trend in the future during the period of 2050s and 2080s which was predicted to rise by over 30%, and the highest increase of the FWI would happen in July and August. For example, under Scenario A2a, the monthly average FWI was anticipated to increase by about 1.5 times and 2 times by the end of the 21st century, respectively. Under DA, the monthly mean FWI would have an increasing trend for the three future periods over the 21st century which was predicted to rise by 30%, and the highest increase of the FWI would happen in July, August, November and December. For example, the monthly average FWI was anticipated to increase by about 1.2,1.2,1,1.2 times by the end of the 21st century, respectively.
The fire danger rating under DW was different from that of DA. Under DW, Forest fires that occurred on days with high fire danger tended to be large fires. The study indicated that in the future, the number of days with very high and extremely high danger was anticipated to increase. Under DA, the study indicated that in the future, the number of days with very high and extremely high danger was anticipated to decrease.
Our results confirmed that the relationship between historical area burned and average SSR values among the study area was illustrated by a significant linear regression(r,0.16-0.61). The considerable evidence could lead us to conclude that the increased SSR values could translate into increased area burned. As for the annual time scale, almost all annual mean SSR demonstrated an increasing pattern under the two climate change scenarios for the three future periods over the 21st century in study region, compared to the figure of the baseline period of 1961-1990. Under DW methods, the annual mean SSR was predicted to rise by about 30% and it was predicted to rise by over 70% by the end of the 21st century. Under DA, it was predicted to rise by over 50% and would double by the end of the 21st century.
In the same period and emission scenarios, the seasonal mean SSR suggested that the study region would experience the highest area burned in spring fire season. Under DW, the highest increase of the SSR would happen in summer fire season, the seasonal mean SSR was predicted to rise by over 40% and it would increase by 1.5 times by the end of the 21st century. Under DA, the highest increase of the SSR would happen in spring and autumn fire season; the seasonal mean SSR were predicted to rise by about 70%,80% and it would double by the end of the 21st century.
IPCC SRES A2a、B2a情景下,21世纪大兴安岭地区森林火险天气、森林火险等级、过火面积显著增加,其增加的幅度随着采用的IPCC SRES的情景、选取的降尺度方法以及选择的研究时期的不同而不同,但无论是哪种排放情景驱动下,无论是哪种统计降尺度模拟结果,也无论是未来哪段研究时期都显示其整体相对于基准年(1961-1990年)呈增加趋势,且这种增加趋势可能会随着时间的推进更加明显。
大兴安岭地区21世纪3时段每30年FWI均值可能呈现一致增加趋势,与基准情景的(1961-1990年)相比,通过DW法模拟的各时段年均FWI值可能增加了近2成；DA法可能增加近5成。到21世纪后期,在DW SRES A2a下,年均FWI值可能增加超3成；DA SRES A2a下,年均FWI可能增加超7成。
在同时期同排放情景下,春季防火期的FWI均值最大。DW下,夏季FWI值的增幅可能最明显,平均增加可能超3成。到21世纪后期,DW SRES A2a下,夏季防火期FWI值FWI均值可能增加超1倍。DA下,秋季的增幅可能最明显,平均增加可能超4成。到21世纪后期,DA SRESA2a下,秋季防火期FWI均值可能增加近1倍。
DW下,2050s和2080s时段各月FWI均值总体呈现增加趋势,月均FWI可能增加超3成。其中,7、8月可能增加的幅度最大,到21世纪后期,A2a情景下FWI值可能分别增加近1.5倍和超2倍。DA下,21世纪3时段各月FWI均值呈现一致增加趋势,月均FWI可能增加超3成。其中,7、8、11和12月可能增加的幅度最大,到21世纪后期,A2a情景下FWI值可能分别增加约1.2倍、1.2倍、1倍和1.1倍。
HadCM3模式在SRES A2a和B2a情景下,通过DW和DA法模拟未来火险等级日变化差异较大。DW SRES A2a和B2a下,平均年极高、高火险日数日数相对于基准年都呈增加趋势；而DA SRES A2a下,DW SRES A2a和B2a下,平均年极高、高火险日数都呈减少趋势。
CFFWIS输出SSR值与1966-2008年研究区的历史过火面积存在显著相关(r,0.16-0.61),SSR增值能作为过火面积增量指标。大兴安岭地区21世纪3时段每30年SSR均值呈现一致增加趋势,与基准情景的(1961-1990年)相比,通过DW法模拟的各时段年均SSR值可能增加了近3成；DA可能增加了超5成。到21世纪后期,在DW SRES A2a下,年均SSR值可能增加超7成；DA SRES A2a下,年均SSR值可能增加超1倍。
春季防火期的SSR均值最大。DW下,夏季的增幅可能最明显,平均增加可能超4成。到21世纪后期,DW SRES A2a下,夏季防火期SSR均值增加可能超1.5倍。DW下,夏、秋季的增幅可能同样明显,夏季平均可能增加超7成,秋季平均可能增加约8成。到21世纪后期,DA SRES A2a下,夏、秋季防火期SSR值可能分别增加约1.7倍和1.5倍；DA SRES A2a下,SSR均值均可能增加超1倍。
This study chose the Great Xing'an Mountains boreal forests of northeastern China as research object. Monthly projections such as maximum temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed were used from the Hadley Centre's General Circulation Model HadCM3, using two climate scenarios (A2a and B2a) for both the baseline period of 1961-1990 (referred to as 1980s) and the future scenario periods (the period 2010-2039 referred to as 2020s, the period 2040-2069 referred to as 2050s, the period 2070-2099 referred to as 2080s), then downscaled by the delta change methods and weather generator to represent daily finer local climate variability. Before FWI and SSR were projected, the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System was first calibrated and validated using both local weather data and fire data. This study made a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the variation trend of fire dangers and fire regime in Great Xing'an Mountains boreal forests, assuming that the fire regime respond to future warming similar to the manner during the past century.
A significant increase in fire weather, fire danger rating and area burned were found for the 21st century in Great Xing'an Mountains under IPCC scenarios (A2a and B2a), and theirs rate of increase varied with the emissions scenarios, statistical downscaling methods and study periods. Whichever emissions scenarios, statistical downscaling methods or study periods were chosen, an increasing trend of fire severity was found, relative to the figure of the baseline period of 1961-1990. Moreover, the trend would be more evident as time goes by.
As for the yearly time scale, almost all annual mean FWI demonstrated an increasing pattern under the two climate change scenarios for the three future periods over the 21st century in study region, compared to the figure of the baseline period of 1961-1990. Under DW methods, the annual mean FWI was predicted to rise by about 20% and it would go up by about 30% by the end of this century. Under DA, it was predicted to rise by over 50% and over 70% by the end of this century.
In the same period and emission scenarios, the seasonal mean FWI suggested that the study region would experience the highest fire danger in spring fire season. Under DW, the highest increase of the FWI would happen in summer fire season, the seasonal mean FWI was predicted to rise by over 30% and it would double by the end of this century. Under DA, the highest increase of the FWI would happen in autumn fire season, the seasonal mean FWI was predicted to rise by over 40% and it would double by the end of this century.
Under DW, the monthly mean FWI would have an increasing trend in the future during the period of 2050s and 2080s which was predicted to rise by over 30%, and the highest increase of the FWI would happen in July and August. For example, under Scenario A2a, the monthly average FWI was anticipated to increase by about 1.5 times and 2 times by the end of the 21st century, respectively. Under DA, the monthly mean FWI would have an increasing trend for the three future periods over the 21st century which was predicted to rise by 30%, and the highest increase of the FWI would happen in July, August, November and December. For example, the monthly average FWI was anticipated to increase by about 1.2,1.2,1,1.2 times by the end of the 21st century, respectively.
The fire danger rating under DW was different from that of DA. Under DW, Forest fires that occurred on days with high fire danger tended to be large fires. The study indicated that in the future, the number of days with very high and extremely high danger was anticipated to increase. Under DA, the study indicated that in the future, the number of days with very high and extremely high danger was anticipated to decrease.
Our results confirmed that the relationship between historical area burned and average SSR values among the study area was illustrated by a significant linear regression(r,0.16-0.61). The considerable evidence could lead us to conclude that the increased SSR values could translate into increased area burned. As for the annual time scale, almost all annual mean SSR demonstrated an increasing pattern under the two climate change scenarios for the three future periods over the 21st century in study region, compared to the figure of the baseline period of 1961-1990. Under DW methods, the annual mean SSR was predicted to rise by about 30% and it was predicted to rise by over 70% by the end of the 21st century. Under DA, it was predicted to rise by over 50% and would double by the end of the 21st century.
In the same period and emission scenarios, the seasonal mean SSR suggested that the study region would experience the highest area burned in spring fire season. Under DW, the highest increase of the SSR would happen in summer fire season, the seasonal mean SSR was predicted to rise by over 40% and it would increase by 1.5 times by the end of the 21st century. Under DA, the highest increase of the SSR would happen in spring and autumn fire season; the seasonal mean SSR were predicted to rise by about 70%,80% and it would double by the end of the 21st century.
引文
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