校准雨量计密度对雷达估测流域降水和水文模拟的影响及其校准方法的研究
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摘要
本文利用“黄淮项目”和973中国暴雨项目外场试验资料中的合肥雷达观测资料、气象部门和淮委收集的雨量计资料、淮委收集的蒸发和入库观测流量等资料,对淠河流域上游的响洪殿和佛子岭流域,以流域内各自12部雨量计距离平方反比法得到的雨量作为真值,采用距离加权校准方法,结合TOPMODEL水文模型,对不同数量雨量计校准雷达对流域面雨量和入库流量模拟的影响进行了研究。在平均校准和距离权重校准的基础上,提出了一种局地平均校准方法,并对雨量和模拟入库流量结果进行了分析。主要工作包括:
1)通过选择和控制校准雨量计的位置和数量,对研究流域内不同数量雨量计校准雷达时的面雨量进行了计算,并进行了比较;
2)将1)中得到的一系列雨量序列输入TOPMODEL水文模型,进行了入库流量模拟,并进行了流量序列的对比和分析;
3)使用局地平均校准方法对流域雨量进行计算,同雨量计和雷达等得到的平均面雨量和单点雨量序列进行了比较,并结合水文模型,进行了入库流量的对比。
根据上述研究工作的开展,获得的结论主要有以下几点:
1)两研究流域内研究时段的几次降水过程,各自两部及以上的雨量计实施校准时,同作为真值的12部雨量计平均面雨量相比,估测误差较小,RMSE变化平缓,相关性较高。两部雨量计校准时,佛子岭流域内的雨量计密度为900km2每部,而临近的响洪殿流域为700km2,可以作为研究流域的校准雨量计密度下限;
2)入库流量径流深的模拟结果显示,模拟入库径流深序列之间的变化与模式输入雨量序列之间的变化具有很大的类似性,雨量的估测精度对模拟结果有很大影响,根据研究流域内三次降水过程得到的两部校准雨量计的下限在入库流量方面仍有显著体现,两部以上的雨量计校准时,模型效率系数、RMSE和相关系数均稳定在较好的水平。
3)序列和单点雨量以及模拟入库流量序列的比较表明,局地平均校准方法能有效提高降水的估测精度和入库流量模拟精度。
Rainfall-runoff model named TOPMODEL is employed to simulate runoffs of Xianghongdian and Foziling sub-catchments located in the upper reaches of Pihe River. The input data for the model include evaporation and runoff data collected by the Huaihe River Commission of Ministry of Water Resource, P. R. C., and initial rain gauge data and Hefei CINRAD radar data obtained by the China heavy rainfall experiment under the frame of 973 Project and Project of Huaihe/Huanghe Basin Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Monitoring System. By employing the distance weighting algorithm, the effects of calibration rain gauge densities on radar rainfall and runoff simulations are studied, and a domain average calibration algorithm formed from average adjusting algorithm and distance weighting algorithm is depicted and studied. Following are main parts of this work:
1)Data are firstly processed. By choosing and controlling calibration gauges manually, effects of adjusting gauge densities on radar rainfall estimates are studied;
2)Rainfall series obtained from step 1) are input to the TOPMODEL model, runoffs are obtained, compared and analyzed;
3)Based on the domain average calibration algorithm, areal rainfalls are computed and runoffs simulated. Results are compared with that obtained from average adjusting and distance weighting algorithms.
Some conclusions based upon above investigations are given as follows:
1)Two calibration gauges would be a good threshold while the error of precipitation estimation is less than 10% with the stable RMSE and correlation coefficients for cases studied over both sub-catchments; the corresponding gauge density is about 900km2 per gauge for Foziling sub-catchment, and 700km2 per gauge for Xianghongdian, respectively.
2)Simulations show that runoffs are greatly affected by the accuracy of rainfall estimation. The threshold obtained from rainfall comparison still works in runoff simulations. All of the model efficiency criterion, RMSE and correlation coefficients keep steady on high levels with this threshold.
3)Comparisons of rainfall series obtained from single gauges and over the whole catchment, also runoff simulations, show that the accuracy of rainfall estimation and runoff simulations can be obviously improved by the domain average calibration algorithm. Key words: radar-gauge calibration; runoff simulation; rain gauge densities; domain average calibration algorithm; TOPMODEL
1)通过选择和控制校准雨量计的位置和数量,对研究流域内不同数量雨量计校准雷达时的面雨量进行了计算,并进行了比较;
2)将1)中得到的一系列雨量序列输入TOPMODEL水文模型,进行了入库流量模拟,并进行了流量序列的对比和分析;
3)使用局地平均校准方法对流域雨量进行计算,同雨量计和雷达等得到的平均面雨量和单点雨量序列进行了比较,并结合水文模型,进行了入库流量的对比。
根据上述研究工作的开展,获得的结论主要有以下几点:
1)两研究流域内研究时段的几次降水过程,各自两部及以上的雨量计实施校准时,同作为真值的12部雨量计平均面雨量相比,估测误差较小,RMSE变化平缓,相关性较高。两部雨量计校准时,佛子岭流域内的雨量计密度为900km2每部,而临近的响洪殿流域为700km2,可以作为研究流域的校准雨量计密度下限;
2)入库流量径流深的模拟结果显示,模拟入库径流深序列之间的变化与模式输入雨量序列之间的变化具有很大的类似性,雨量的估测精度对模拟结果有很大影响,根据研究流域内三次降水过程得到的两部校准雨量计的下限在入库流量方面仍有显著体现,两部以上的雨量计校准时,模型效率系数、RMSE和相关系数均稳定在较好的水平。
3)序列和单点雨量以及模拟入库流量序列的比较表明,局地平均校准方法能有效提高降水的估测精度和入库流量模拟精度。
Rainfall-runoff model named TOPMODEL is employed to simulate runoffs of Xianghongdian and Foziling sub-catchments located in the upper reaches of Pihe River. The input data for the model include evaporation and runoff data collected by the Huaihe River Commission of Ministry of Water Resource, P. R. C., and initial rain gauge data and Hefei CINRAD radar data obtained by the China heavy rainfall experiment under the frame of 973 Project and Project of Huaihe/Huanghe Basin Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Monitoring System. By employing the distance weighting algorithm, the effects of calibration rain gauge densities on radar rainfall and runoff simulations are studied, and a domain average calibration algorithm formed from average adjusting algorithm and distance weighting algorithm is depicted and studied. Following are main parts of this work:
1)Data are firstly processed. By choosing and controlling calibration gauges manually, effects of adjusting gauge densities on radar rainfall estimates are studied;
2)Rainfall series obtained from step 1) are input to the TOPMODEL model, runoffs are obtained, compared and analyzed;
3)Based on the domain average calibration algorithm, areal rainfalls are computed and runoffs simulated. Results are compared with that obtained from average adjusting and distance weighting algorithms.
Some conclusions based upon above investigations are given as follows:
1)Two calibration gauges would be a good threshold while the error of precipitation estimation is less than 10% with the stable RMSE and correlation coefficients for cases studied over both sub-catchments; the corresponding gauge density is about 900km2 per gauge for Foziling sub-catchment, and 700km2 per gauge for Xianghongdian, respectively.
2)Simulations show that runoffs are greatly affected by the accuracy of rainfall estimation. The threshold obtained from rainfall comparison still works in runoff simulations. All of the model efficiency criterion, RMSE and correlation coefficients keep steady on high levels with this threshold.
3)Comparisons of rainfall series obtained from single gauges and over the whole catchment, also runoff simulations, show that the accuracy of rainfall estimation and runoff simulations can be obviously improved by the domain average calibration algorithm. Key words: radar-gauge calibration; runoff simulation; rain gauge densities; domain average calibration algorithm; TOPMODEL
引文
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