太阳风暴的综合研究
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摘要
强烈的太阳活动事件,如耀斑、日珥爆发、日冕物质抛射(CME)等,常引发X射线暴、粒子暴和等离子体物质的快速抛出,它们会在地球空间引起各种效应,如磁暴、电离层暴、热层暴和高能粒子暴等等.太阳风暴是指剧烈太阳活动释放巨大能量和物质的现象.它常引发日地空间环境的急剧变化,对空间和地面的技术系统产生严重的干扰和破坏,是空间天气学研究的重点之一.本文主要以分析观测资料为主,同时通过物理模型和数值模拟,对太阳风暴中相关现象以及太阳风暴预报方法进行了研究.本文的主要工作概括如下:
1.太阳风暴预报方法研究.把每次具体空间天气事件的状态分析—“望诊”与定量预报—“切脉”结合在一起,提出了用于预报太阳风暴到达地球的时间及其引起的磁扰大小的两步法.以2003年10月28日和29日的两次特大太阳风暴(激波)事件为预报试验对象,第一步,“望诊”,对太阳源表面磁场分布、行星际闪烁观测资料和ACE卫星观测的联合分析表明,源表面的大尺度磁位形造成了激波相对于爆发源法向非对称传播,地球处在接近激波传播最快、能量最大的方向上;这两次激波都是强激波事件,高速、强磁场、高温的日冕物质抛射以及高速的背景太阳风都有利于激波的快速传播.第二步,“切脉”,采用新建立的快速激波渡越时间的从属函数于ISF方法中,对其渡越时间和引起的地磁扰动进行了预报试验.预报结果是:两次激波事件到达地球时间的预报值与观测值相比较,相对误差分别为1.8%和6.7%;磁扰幅度ΣKp指数的预报,相对误差分别为4.1%和3.1%;此外,比较两步法与国际流行的五种统计或数值预报方法,结果表明两步法对此类强激波事件的地磁扰动预报是有优势的.该方法充分考虑了每次事件的真实空间天气状态,在背景场描述方面优于其他基于统计的预报模型,有利于改善预测太阳风暴到达时间及其引起的地磁扰动幅度大小的能力.
2.利用新的日地观测资料,太阳风暴传播特征的统计研究.以1997～2005年期间的180次行星际激波和与之相联系的日冕物质抛射事件为样本,分析了日球电流片对激波传播特性及其相应地磁效应的影响,得到的结果是: (1)太阳上日冕电流片及其附近区域有利于产生CME等太阳爆发活动;随着离开电流片角距的增加,爆发活动数目明显减少; (2)当地球和太阳爆发源位于电流片同侧时,地球附近飞船观测到激波事件的频次以及地磁扰动事件频次明显高于它们分处电流片异侧时的频次; (3)激波阵面参数的跃变量呈现出同侧高于异侧,强激波多在同侧观测到; (4)地磁扰动强弱程度也呈现了同侧高于异侧,而且,磁扰强度随着地球离开日球电流片角距的增加而减弱的趋势明显; (5)得到了利用激波初速度预测其到达地球时间的经验公式,并尝试了分别对同、异侧事件进行分类预测.上述研究结果表明,日球电流片是一个重要的物理特征面,它对行星际激波事件的传播以及相应地磁扰动的产生和强弱水平有重要影响.此外,结合日冕源表面磁场分布与单点飞船的行星际磁场方位角观测,发现激波在传播过程中遇到电流片时,会对电流片形态产生明显的局部扰动.
3.太阳风暴传播特征的三维运动学模拟研究.利用三维运动学HAF模型,了解太阳风暴的三维传播特性,对激波到达地球时间和重现型磁暴的发生进行了预报试验;还分析了CME对日球电流片的可能影响.对于2004年4月4日日冕物质抛射事件驱动的激波, HAF模型预测的激波到达地球时间比实际到达时间延迟了约6小时.对于第1995卡林顿周, HAF模型较好预测出了该卡林顿周内的三次重现型磁暴的发生.此外,通过比较有无CME事件发生时HAF模型的模拟结果,分析了CME/激波系统对日球电流片的可能影响.初步结果表明, CME/激波系统能对日球电流片产生明显的挤压效应,其结果是使扇形边界的形状发生变化,而且扇形边界到达地球的时间也会随之发生明显变化.
Solar eruptive phenomena, such as ?are, erupting prominence and coronamass ejection (CME), usually induce radiation storm, particle storm and fastejection of plasma, which may be impact the Earth greatly and result in geomag-netic storm, ionospheric storm, thermospheric storm and so on. Solar storms,the manifestation of hazard weather in space mentioned above, have a number ofphysical effects in the solar-terrestrial environment. As an important cause thatcan inffuence the performance and reliability of space- and ground-based techno-logical systems and can endanger human life, solar storm plays an pivotal role inspace weather research. On the basis of the observations of the solar-terrestrialenvironment, the following aspects are studied observationally, theoretically andnumerically.
1. Study on forecast model of solar storm. Aiming at two intense shockevents on 28 and 29 October 2003, this paper presents a Two-Step method,which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–”observing”and quantita-tive prediction–”palpating”, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step,”observing”, on the basis of observations of the solar source surface magneticfield, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that thepropagation of the shocks is asymmetric relative to the normal direction of theirsolar sources, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speedand the greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, thefast explosion of coronal mass of the extremely high temperature and the strongmagnetic field, and the high speed background solar wind, are also helpful totheir rapid propagation. In the second step,”palpating”, we adopt a new mem-bership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predictedresults here show that for the arrival time of the shock at the Earth, the relativeerrors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8% and 6.7%;and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors are 4.1% and3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that theTwo-Step method is advantageous.
2. Statistical study of the propagation of solar storms. Using 180 interplan-etary (IP) shock events associated with CMEs during 1997–2005, we investigatethe inffuence of heliospheric current sheet (HCS) upon the propagation and geo-effectiveness of IP shocks Statistically. Our preliminary results are: (1) Themajority of CME–driving IP shocks occurred near the HCS. (2) The numbers ofshock events and related geomagnetic storms observed when the Earth and thesolar source are located on the same side of the HCS, are obviously higher thanthose when the Earth and the solar source are located on the opposite sides ofthe HCS. (3) Parameter jumps across the shock fronts for the same-side eventsare also higher than those for the opposite-side events, and the stronger shocksare mainly attributed to be same-side events. (4) The level of the geomagneticdisturbances is higher for the same-side events than that for the opposite-sideevents. (5) We propose an empirical model to predict the arrival time of theshock at the Earth, whose accuracy is comparable to the other prevailing mod-els. These results show that the HCS is an important physical structure, whichprobably plays an important role in the propagation of interplanetary shocks andtheir geoeffectiveness.
3. 3-D kinematic simulation study of the propagation of solar storms. Usingthe 3-D kinematic model, HAF model, to predict the shock arrival time at theEarth and the occurrence of recurrent magnetic storm, and to analyze the impactof CMEs on HCS. Taking the shock associated with CME, erupted on 2004 April4, for example, its arrival time at the Earth predicted by the HAF model is about6 hours later than the observations. The HAF model forecasts the recurrentmagnetic storms in Carrington Rotation 1995 fairly well. In addition, simulationresults show that the ejected plasma of CME and its driving IP shocks willinteract with the sector boundary. Then the interactions will change both theshape of the sector boundary and its arrival time at the Earth substantially.
1.太阳风暴预报方法研究.把每次具体空间天气事件的状态分析—“望诊”与定量预报—“切脉”结合在一起,提出了用于预报太阳风暴到达地球的时间及其引起的磁扰大小的两步法.以2003年10月28日和29日的两次特大太阳风暴(激波)事件为预报试验对象,第一步,“望诊”,对太阳源表面磁场分布、行星际闪烁观测资料和ACE卫星观测的联合分析表明,源表面的大尺度磁位形造成了激波相对于爆发源法向非对称传播,地球处在接近激波传播最快、能量最大的方向上;这两次激波都是强激波事件,高速、强磁场、高温的日冕物质抛射以及高速的背景太阳风都有利于激波的快速传播.第二步,“切脉”,采用新建立的快速激波渡越时间的从属函数于ISF方法中,对其渡越时间和引起的地磁扰动进行了预报试验.预报结果是:两次激波事件到达地球时间的预报值与观测值相比较,相对误差分别为1.8%和6.7%;磁扰幅度ΣKp指数的预报,相对误差分别为4.1%和3.1%;此外,比较两步法与国际流行的五种统计或数值预报方法,结果表明两步法对此类强激波事件的地磁扰动预报是有优势的.该方法充分考虑了每次事件的真实空间天气状态,在背景场描述方面优于其他基于统计的预报模型,有利于改善预测太阳风暴到达时间及其引起的地磁扰动幅度大小的能力.
2.利用新的日地观测资料,太阳风暴传播特征的统计研究.以1997～2005年期间的180次行星际激波和与之相联系的日冕物质抛射事件为样本,分析了日球电流片对激波传播特性及其相应地磁效应的影响,得到的结果是: (1)太阳上日冕电流片及其附近区域有利于产生CME等太阳爆发活动;随着离开电流片角距的增加,爆发活动数目明显减少; (2)当地球和太阳爆发源位于电流片同侧时,地球附近飞船观测到激波事件的频次以及地磁扰动事件频次明显高于它们分处电流片异侧时的频次; (3)激波阵面参数的跃变量呈现出同侧高于异侧,强激波多在同侧观测到; (4)地磁扰动强弱程度也呈现了同侧高于异侧,而且,磁扰强度随着地球离开日球电流片角距的增加而减弱的趋势明显; (5)得到了利用激波初速度预测其到达地球时间的经验公式,并尝试了分别对同、异侧事件进行分类预测.上述研究结果表明,日球电流片是一个重要的物理特征面,它对行星际激波事件的传播以及相应地磁扰动的产生和强弱水平有重要影响.此外,结合日冕源表面磁场分布与单点飞船的行星际磁场方位角观测,发现激波在传播过程中遇到电流片时,会对电流片形态产生明显的局部扰动.
3.太阳风暴传播特征的三维运动学模拟研究.利用三维运动学HAF模型,了解太阳风暴的三维传播特性,对激波到达地球时间和重现型磁暴的发生进行了预报试验;还分析了CME对日球电流片的可能影响.对于2004年4月4日日冕物质抛射事件驱动的激波, HAF模型预测的激波到达地球时间比实际到达时间延迟了约6小时.对于第1995卡林顿周, HAF模型较好预测出了该卡林顿周内的三次重现型磁暴的发生.此外,通过比较有无CME事件发生时HAF模型的模拟结果,分析了CME/激波系统对日球电流片的可能影响.初步结果表明, CME/激波系统能对日球电流片产生明显的挤压效应,其结果是使扇形边界的形状发生变化,而且扇形边界到达地球的时间也会随之发生明显变化.
Solar eruptive phenomena, such as ?are, erupting prominence and coronamass ejection (CME), usually induce radiation storm, particle storm and fastejection of plasma, which may be impact the Earth greatly and result in geomag-netic storm, ionospheric storm, thermospheric storm and so on. Solar storms,the manifestation of hazard weather in space mentioned above, have a number ofphysical effects in the solar-terrestrial environment. As an important cause thatcan inffuence the performance and reliability of space- and ground-based techno-logical systems and can endanger human life, solar storm plays an pivotal role inspace weather research. On the basis of the observations of the solar-terrestrialenvironment, the following aspects are studied observationally, theoretically andnumerically.
1. Study on forecast model of solar storm. Aiming at two intense shockevents on 28 and 29 October 2003, this paper presents a Two-Step method,which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–”observing”and quantita-tive prediction–”palpating”, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step,”observing”, on the basis of observations of the solar source surface magneticfield, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that thepropagation of the shocks is asymmetric relative to the normal direction of theirsolar sources, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speedand the greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, thefast explosion of coronal mass of the extremely high temperature and the strongmagnetic field, and the high speed background solar wind, are also helpful totheir rapid propagation. In the second step,”palpating”, we adopt a new mem-bership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predictedresults here show that for the arrival time of the shock at the Earth, the relativeerrors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8% and 6.7%;and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors are 4.1% and3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that theTwo-Step method is advantageous.
2. Statistical study of the propagation of solar storms. Using 180 interplan-etary (IP) shock events associated with CMEs during 1997–2005, we investigatethe inffuence of heliospheric current sheet (HCS) upon the propagation and geo-effectiveness of IP shocks Statistically. Our preliminary results are: (1) Themajority of CME–driving IP shocks occurred near the HCS. (2) The numbers ofshock events and related geomagnetic storms observed when the Earth and thesolar source are located on the same side of the HCS, are obviously higher thanthose when the Earth and the solar source are located on the opposite sides ofthe HCS. (3) Parameter jumps across the shock fronts for the same-side eventsare also higher than those for the opposite-side events, and the stronger shocksare mainly attributed to be same-side events. (4) The level of the geomagneticdisturbances is higher for the same-side events than that for the opposite-sideevents. (5) We propose an empirical model to predict the arrival time of theshock at the Earth, whose accuracy is comparable to the other prevailing mod-els. These results show that the HCS is an important physical structure, whichprobably plays an important role in the propagation of interplanetary shocks andtheir geoeffectiveness.
3. 3-D kinematic simulation study of the propagation of solar storms. Usingthe 3-D kinematic model, HAF model, to predict the shock arrival time at theEarth and the occurrence of recurrent magnetic storm, and to analyze the impactof CMEs on HCS. Taking the shock associated with CME, erupted on 2004 April4, for example, its arrival time at the Earth predicted by the HAF model is about6 hours later than the observations. The HAF model forecasts the recurrentmagnetic storms in Carrington Rotation 1995 fairly well. In addition, simulationresults show that the ejected plasma of CME and its driving IP shocks willinteract with the sector boundary. Then the interactions will change both theshape of the sector boundary and its arrival time at the Earth substantially.
引文
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