金融危机的产生及对我国商业银行的影响
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摘要
次贷危机的发生,对全世界的金融市场和金融秩序造成了毁灭性的打击,并且直接导致世界经济进入了衰退期。中国的金融行业不可避免的也受到了次贷危机的影响,部分银行由于投资次级债也造成了不小的损失。金融危机给中国银行业上了很好的一课,使我们对银行业务的开展、从业理论和方法都有了全新的认识。虽然现在距次贷危机爆发已经过去多时,但其威力仍不可小视。当前整体金融市场仍处在次贷危机的阴影下运行,世界经济面临整体衰退的压力。中国的资本市场虽还并没有完全对外开放,次贷危机对于中国的直接影响有限,但要注意的是,次贷导致的美元贬值、消费低迷和全球资金流动性的收紧,以及全球经济下行的趋势,对我国宏观经济形势的影响不容低估,对于金融行业的从业方法和从业理论影响更为深远。
本来分为三个部分,第一部分探讨了次贷危机的起源,描述了次贷危机发生的四个过程,并且从危机引发的全球失衡角度阐述了对全球经济造成的影响;第二部分首先对金融危机的产生进行了概括,其次从金融危机对全球经济、对国际资本流动和对金融行业三个角度分析其带来的影响,深度剖析金融危机的根源,并且详细分析了美国金融危机对中国经济的影响;第三部分分析了金融危机对我国银行业的影响,说明了我国商业银行应加快调整经营结构和推进战略转型的必要性,以及应该采取的应对措施。本文试图剖析金融危机的根源,找到金融危机发生的原因,综合国内外近期来的宏观经济形势,研究国有银行发展面临的挑战和机遇,帮助国有商业银行积极寻找应对的策略,确保我国银行业的稳健运行和健康发展。
Sub-prime crisis made the world's financial markets and financial order a devastating blow, and a direct result is the recession of the world economy. China's financial industry has been suffering Sub-prime crisis inevitably, even some banks led to loss. Financial crisis give China's banking a good lesson. It makes us have a whole new opinion on our banking business, business theory and way. While it has been a long time from the Sub-prime crisis, it's power still can not be neglected. At present the overall financial markets are still running under the shadow of Sub-prime crisis and the world economy is forced to fall. Although Sub-prime crisis has a lighter impact on China comparing to other countries because China's capital market has not fully been opened to the outside world, it should be noted that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, consumer downturn and global tightening of liquidity as well as the global economy downing trend still have the huge impact on China's macroeconomic, as well as the financial sector practitioners and the theory and impact of practitioners.
The article originally is divided into three parts. The first part is mainly about the origin of Sub-prime crisis, describing the Sub-prime crisis triggering the global imbalances and the recession of the global economy; The second part is majored in financial crisis, followed from the financial crisis on the global economy to international capital flows and the three angles of the financial industry to analyze its impact, in-depth analysis of the root causes of the financial crisis and a detailed analysis of the United States financial crisis on Chinese economic impact; The third part analyzes the financial crisis on the impact of China's banking industry. It shows that China's commercial banks should speed up the operating structure to reconcile the need to promote the strategic transition, as well as response measures to be taken. This paper attempts to analyze the root causes of the financial crisis and find out reasons, researches the development of state-owned banks are facing the challenges and opportunities, and assists state-owned commercial banks to actively look for strategies to ensure the stability of operation and healthy development in the future.
本来分为三个部分,第一部分探讨了次贷危机的起源,描述了次贷危机发生的四个过程,并且从危机引发的全球失衡角度阐述了对全球经济造成的影响;第二部分首先对金融危机的产生进行了概括,其次从金融危机对全球经济、对国际资本流动和对金融行业三个角度分析其带来的影响,深度剖析金融危机的根源,并且详细分析了美国金融危机对中国经济的影响;第三部分分析了金融危机对我国银行业的影响,说明了我国商业银行应加快调整经营结构和推进战略转型的必要性,以及应该采取的应对措施。本文试图剖析金融危机的根源,找到金融危机发生的原因,综合国内外近期来的宏观经济形势,研究国有银行发展面临的挑战和机遇,帮助国有商业银行积极寻找应对的策略,确保我国银行业的稳健运行和健康发展。
Sub-prime crisis made the world's financial markets and financial order a devastating blow, and a direct result is the recession of the world economy. China's financial industry has been suffering Sub-prime crisis inevitably, even some banks led to loss. Financial crisis give China's banking a good lesson. It makes us have a whole new opinion on our banking business, business theory and way. While it has been a long time from the Sub-prime crisis, it's power still can not be neglected. At present the overall financial markets are still running under the shadow of Sub-prime crisis and the world economy is forced to fall. Although Sub-prime crisis has a lighter impact on China comparing to other countries because China's capital market has not fully been opened to the outside world, it should be noted that the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, consumer downturn and global tightening of liquidity as well as the global economy downing trend still have the huge impact on China's macroeconomic, as well as the financial sector practitioners and the theory and impact of practitioners.
The article originally is divided into three parts. The first part is mainly about the origin of Sub-prime crisis, describing the Sub-prime crisis triggering the global imbalances and the recession of the global economy; The second part is majored in financial crisis, followed from the financial crisis on the global economy to international capital flows and the three angles of the financial industry to analyze its impact, in-depth analysis of the root causes of the financial crisis and a detailed analysis of the United States financial crisis on Chinese economic impact; The third part analyzes the financial crisis on the impact of China's banking industry. It shows that China's commercial banks should speed up the operating structure to reconcile the need to promote the strategic transition, as well as response measures to be taken. This paper attempts to analyze the root causes of the financial crisis and find out reasons, researches the development of state-owned banks are facing the challenges and opportunities, and assists state-owned commercial banks to actively look for strategies to ensure the stability of operation and healthy development in the future.
引文
[1]范俏燕.当前国际性金融危机的生成和传导 财经科学,2008年第7期
[2]郭田勇,陆洋.次贷危机对我国银行业发展的启示 金融发展研究,2008年第10期
[3]王自力.道德风险与监管缺失:美国金融危机的深层原因 中国金融,2008年第20期
[4]黄小军,陆晓明,吴晓晖.对美国次贷危机的深层思考 金融与保险,2008年第9期
[5]曾刚.美国次贷危机的前景展望 中国金融,2008年第20期
[6]赖秀福,田娟.金融危机再思考 中国金融,2008年第22期
[7]徐明棋.美国金融危机对中国经济的影响及我们的对策 新金融,2008年第11期
[8]张锐.华尔街金融重组的路径选择与深远影响 深圳金融,2008年第11期
[9][德]诺贝尔特·马太斯克.次贷危机引起的金融市场混乱及其对策建议 财经科学,2008年第11期
[10]梁佳丽,张捷.基于微观视角的次贷危机行业影响研究 新金融,2008年第10期
[11]段国圣 张敬国 次贷危机的主要成因并非监管不严 中国金融,2008年第22期
[12]贾斯汀.拉夏尔 次贷危机对财务信息披露带来的影响 中国金融,2008年第17期
[13]戴维·德罗萨.20世纪90年代金融危机真相.中信出版社,2008
[14]金德尔伯格.金融危机史(第四版).中国金融出版社,2007
[15]何德旭,王卉彤.全球视野中的金融创新.世界经济导刊,2006,10
[16]何帆,张明.美国次贷危机是如何酿成的.求是,2007,20
[17]孙立坚,彭述涛.从“次级债风波”看现代金融风险的本质[J].金融与保险,2008,1
[18]约翰·伊特韦尔,艾斯·泰勒.全球金融风险监管.成家军等译,经济科学出版社,2001
[19]张明.次贷危机的传导机制.中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所工作论文,2008,9
[20]张明,透视CDO:类型、构造、评级与市场.国际金融研究,2008,6
[21]张明,郑联盛.适视房利美、房贷美危机.当地金融家,2008,8
[22]张亦春,许文斌.金融全球化、金融安全和金融演进,华北金融,2002,10
[23]Black,D.G.(1986),"Success and failure of futures contracts:Theory and empirical evidence",Salomon Brothers Center for the Study of Financial Institutions Monograph Series in Finance and Economics, 1986,1
[24]BIS(1986):"Recent Innovation in International Banking",BIS Report,1986 April.
[25]BIS,"Innovations in credit risk transfer:implications for financial stability"BIS working paper No.255,July 2008
[26]BIS:"Financial System:Shock Absorber of Amplifier?",Working paper No.257,July 2008
[27]BIS:"Central bank operations in response to the financial turmoil",CGFS paper No.31 July 2008
[28]Cecchetti,Stephen G:"Crisis and Response:The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008",NBER working paper 14134,June,2008
[29]Dynan,Karen E.,Douglas W.Elmendorf,and Daniel E.Sichel:"Can Financial Innovation Help to Explain the Reduced Volatility of Economic Activity?", Finance and Economics Discussion Series 054,Federral Reserve Board,2005
[30]Economist,"End of Illusions", July 17th 2008.
[31]Eichengreen,Barry,Donald Mathieson,and others:"Hedge Funds and Financial Market Dynamics,IMF Occasional Paper NO.166,1998
[32]Greenlaw,David,Hatzius,Jan,Kashyap,Anil K,Shin,Hyun Song , Leveraged Losses:Lessons from the Mortgage Market Meltdown , USMonetary Policy Forum Conference Draft. 2008
[33] Hui Tong, Shang-Jin Wei, Real Effects of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Is it a Demand or a Finance Shock? NBER, July 2008
[34] Michael P. Dooley,David Folkerts-Landau,Peter M. Garber Will Subprime be a Twin Crisis for the United States? NBER, May 2008
[35]Khor Hoe Ee and Kee Rui Xiong, Asia: A Perspective on the Subprime Crisis Finance&Development, June 2008, Volume 45, Number 2
[36]Randall Dodd, Subprime: Tentacles of a Crisis, Finance&Development, December 2007, Volume 44, Number 4
[2]郭田勇,陆洋.次贷危机对我国银行业发展的启示 金融发展研究,2008年第10期
[3]王自力.道德风险与监管缺失:美国金融危机的深层原因 中国金融,2008年第20期
[4]黄小军,陆晓明,吴晓晖.对美国次贷危机的深层思考 金融与保险,2008年第9期
[5]曾刚.美国次贷危机的前景展望 中国金融,2008年第20期
[6]赖秀福,田娟.金融危机再思考 中国金融,2008年第22期
[7]徐明棋.美国金融危机对中国经济的影响及我们的对策 新金融,2008年第11期
[8]张锐.华尔街金融重组的路径选择与深远影响 深圳金融,2008年第11期
[9][德]诺贝尔特·马太斯克.次贷危机引起的金融市场混乱及其对策建议 财经科学,2008年第11期
[10]梁佳丽,张捷.基于微观视角的次贷危机行业影响研究 新金融,2008年第10期
[11]段国圣 张敬国 次贷危机的主要成因并非监管不严 中国金融,2008年第22期
[12]贾斯汀.拉夏尔 次贷危机对财务信息披露带来的影响 中国金融,2008年第17期
[13]戴维·德罗萨.20世纪90年代金融危机真相.中信出版社,2008
[14]金德尔伯格.金融危机史(第四版).中国金融出版社,2007
[15]何德旭,王卉彤.全球视野中的金融创新.世界经济导刊,2006,10
[16]何帆,张明.美国次贷危机是如何酿成的.求是,2007,20
[17]孙立坚,彭述涛.从“次级债风波”看现代金融风险的本质[J].金融与保险,2008,1
[18]约翰·伊特韦尔,艾斯·泰勒.全球金融风险监管.成家军等译,经济科学出版社,2001
[19]张明.次贷危机的传导机制.中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所工作论文,2008,9
[20]张明,透视CDO:类型、构造、评级与市场.国际金融研究,2008,6
[21]张明,郑联盛.适视房利美、房贷美危机.当地金融家,2008,8
[22]张亦春,许文斌.金融全球化、金融安全和金融演进,华北金融,2002,10
[23]Black,D.G.(1986),"Success and failure of futures contracts:Theory and empirical evidence",Salomon Brothers Center for the Study of Financial Institutions Monograph Series in Finance and Economics, 1986,1
[24]BIS(1986):"Recent Innovation in International Banking",BIS Report,1986 April.
[25]BIS,"Innovations in credit risk transfer:implications for financial stability"BIS working paper No.255,July 2008
[26]BIS:"Financial System:Shock Absorber of Amplifier?",Working paper No.257,July 2008
[27]BIS:"Central bank operations in response to the financial turmoil",CGFS paper No.31 July 2008
[28]Cecchetti,Stephen G:"Crisis and Response:The Federal Reserve and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008",NBER working paper 14134,June,2008
[29]Dynan,Karen E.,Douglas W.Elmendorf,and Daniel E.Sichel:"Can Financial Innovation Help to Explain the Reduced Volatility of Economic Activity?", Finance and Economics Discussion Series 054,Federral Reserve Board,2005
[30]Economist,"End of Illusions", July 17th 2008.
[31]Eichengreen,Barry,Donald Mathieson,and others:"Hedge Funds and Financial Market Dynamics,IMF Occasional Paper NO.166,1998
[32]Greenlaw,David,Hatzius,Jan,Kashyap,Anil K,Shin,Hyun Song , Leveraged Losses:Lessons from the Mortgage Market Meltdown , USMonetary Policy Forum Conference Draft. 2008
[33] Hui Tong, Shang-Jin Wei, Real Effects of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Is it a Demand or a Finance Shock? NBER, July 2008
[34] Michael P. Dooley,David Folkerts-Landau,Peter M. Garber Will Subprime be a Twin Crisis for the United States? NBER, May 2008
[35]Khor Hoe Ee and Kee Rui Xiong, Asia: A Perspective on the Subprime Crisis Finance&Development, June 2008, Volume 45, Number 2
[36]Randall Dodd, Subprime: Tentacles of a Crisis, Finance&Development, December 2007, Volume 44, Number 4