供应链风险的管理与控制研究
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摘要
由于供应链网络结构的错综复杂性、外部环境的不稳定性和供应链管理者过于追求精益化、忽视风险管理而造成的脆弱性等因素，供应链越来越容易遭受各类风险的侵袭。许多的案例表明，一旦某种风险真的发生，往往会给供应链造成不可逆转的损害和巨大损失，甚至造成供应链的彻底断裂。有效的对供应链风险进行管理与控制能够使供应链更加富有弹性，从而对各类风险具有更强的抵抗力，使供应链能够避免或者减少由于风险带来的损失。良好的风险协调管理还能提高供应链的运作效率，降低供应链的成本，有助于企业的持续发展。因此，供应链风险管理与控制具有重要的实际意义和广阔的应用前景。
论文首先研究梳理了供应链风险管理的相关理论，综合分析了可能导致供应链风险的许多因素，据此对供应链风险进行了分类，研究了供应链风险管理与控制的过程和方法，建立了供应链风险值评价的模型。
中断风险和预测风险是最重要的两种供应链风险，论文专门对这两种风险进行了研究。面对中断风险的威胁，论文提出了应该构建基于“准事制”的弹性供应链的构想，研究了构建弹性供应链的原则和过程，并构建了不同的基于中断风险管理的弹性供应链设计模型。对于预测风险，论文针对逆向选择问题和道德风险问题研究了供应链预测风险的防范措施，包括信息共享。为了克服供应链中信息共享的“囚徒困境”，作者设计了一系列的策略，并运用多目标理论和管理激励理论构建了信息共享的管理激励模型。
供应链中的风险、利益和成本能否合理分配决定着供应链风险管理能否顺利地进行。论文分析了供应链风险管理的利益和风险分配的原则，运用博弈论原理设计了供应链成员具有不同的风险偏好时的利益和风险分配模型。然后还依据合作博弈理论研究供应链风险管理中的利益分配和成本分摊的模型和机制。
论文还研究了期权与供应链风险管理的关系，构建了基于期权的供应链风险管理模型，指出将期权合约引入供应链风险管理能够降低供应链风险并增加供应链收益。
通过本论文的研究，对于推动供应链风险管理的进一步发展将起到一定的促进作用，对于供应链管理者实施具体的风险管理、构建风险管理体系也具有良好的理论指导和实践参考作用。
Because of the anfractuosities of structure, instability of environment, managers pursuing lean supply chain and neglecting risk management, and so on, supply chain is having been more and more subject to affected by all kinds of risks. There were many cases about supply chain risks. They tell us, once some certain risk really happens, it will cause huge damage and incalculable loss, even thorough disruption of supply chain. Managing & controlling supply chain risk effectively make supply chain more resilient. A resilient supply chain is more robust so that it can mitigate even avoid the loss caused by risk. It also can improve operation efficiency of supply chain and reduce the cost of supply chain, which are helpful to the continuous development of corporation. So, it's significant in practice to managing and controlling supply chain risk.
Firstly, he paper studies some theories about supply chain risk management; analyze the derivers of supply chain risks systematically. Based on former analysis, the author classifies these supply chain risks; studies the process and methods of managing & controlling supply risk; then constructs the risk evaluation model with Value of Risk.
Disruption risk and forecast risk are two most important supply chain risks, so the paper studies these two risks specially. In the face of disruption risk, we should construct the resilient supply chain based on the idea of "Just-in-Case". In chapter 4, the author studies the principles and process of constructing resilient supply chain and designs different model of resilient supply chain. For forecast risks put forward in chapter 5, the paper investigates the mitigating measures to adverse selection and moral hazard problems, which include information sharing. In order to solve the problem of prisoner's dilemma during information sharing in supply chain, the paper put forward to a series of methods and constructs managerial incentive model of information sharing based on multiobjective theory and managerial incentive theory.
Reasonable distribution of risk, benefit and cost in supply chain affects the operation of supply chain risk management. In chapter 6, the paper discusses the benefits of supply chain risk management and principles of risk distribution; designs the benefit and risk distribution model when the members' preferences to risk are different in supply chain. Then the paper studies the benefit and cost distribution model and mechanism in supply chain with cooperative game theory.
The author also studies the connection of option and supply chain risk management, and constructs the supply chain risk management model based on option. Supply chain management with option can mitigate supply chain risk and increase supply chain benefit.
The study of the paper will drive the development of supply chain risk management more deeply. It's also helpful to put the risk management in supply chain and construct the risk management system.
论文首先研究梳理了供应链风险管理的相关理论，综合分析了可能导致供应链风险的许多因素，据此对供应链风险进行了分类，研究了供应链风险管理与控制的过程和方法，建立了供应链风险值评价的模型。
中断风险和预测风险是最重要的两种供应链风险，论文专门对这两种风险进行了研究。面对中断风险的威胁，论文提出了应该构建基于“准事制”的弹性供应链的构想，研究了构建弹性供应链的原则和过程，并构建了不同的基于中断风险管理的弹性供应链设计模型。对于预测风险，论文针对逆向选择问题和道德风险问题研究了供应链预测风险的防范措施，包括信息共享。为了克服供应链中信息共享的“囚徒困境”，作者设计了一系列的策略，并运用多目标理论和管理激励理论构建了信息共享的管理激励模型。
供应链中的风险、利益和成本能否合理分配决定着供应链风险管理能否顺利地进行。论文分析了供应链风险管理的利益和风险分配的原则，运用博弈论原理设计了供应链成员具有不同的风险偏好时的利益和风险分配模型。然后还依据合作博弈理论研究供应链风险管理中的利益分配和成本分摊的模型和机制。
论文还研究了期权与供应链风险管理的关系，构建了基于期权的供应链风险管理模型，指出将期权合约引入供应链风险管理能够降低供应链风险并增加供应链收益。
通过本论文的研究，对于推动供应链风险管理的进一步发展将起到一定的促进作用，对于供应链管理者实施具体的风险管理、构建风险管理体系也具有良好的理论指导和实践参考作用。
Because of the anfractuosities of structure, instability of environment, managers pursuing lean supply chain and neglecting risk management, and so on, supply chain is having been more and more subject to affected by all kinds of risks. There were many cases about supply chain risks. They tell us, once some certain risk really happens, it will cause huge damage and incalculable loss, even thorough disruption of supply chain. Managing & controlling supply chain risk effectively make supply chain more resilient. A resilient supply chain is more robust so that it can mitigate even avoid the loss caused by risk. It also can improve operation efficiency of supply chain and reduce the cost of supply chain, which are helpful to the continuous development of corporation. So, it's significant in practice to managing and controlling supply chain risk.
Firstly, he paper studies some theories about supply chain risk management; analyze the derivers of supply chain risks systematically. Based on former analysis, the author classifies these supply chain risks; studies the process and methods of managing & controlling supply risk; then constructs the risk evaluation model with Value of Risk.
Disruption risk and forecast risk are two most important supply chain risks, so the paper studies these two risks specially. In the face of disruption risk, we should construct the resilient supply chain based on the idea of "Just-in-Case". In chapter 4, the author studies the principles and process of constructing resilient supply chain and designs different model of resilient supply chain. For forecast risks put forward in chapter 5, the paper investigates the mitigating measures to adverse selection and moral hazard problems, which include information sharing. In order to solve the problem of prisoner's dilemma during information sharing in supply chain, the paper put forward to a series of methods and constructs managerial incentive model of information sharing based on multiobjective theory and managerial incentive theory.
Reasonable distribution of risk, benefit and cost in supply chain affects the operation of supply chain risk management. In chapter 6, the paper discusses the benefits of supply chain risk management and principles of risk distribution; designs the benefit and risk distribution model when the members' preferences to risk are different in supply chain. Then the paper studies the benefit and cost distribution model and mechanism in supply chain with cooperative game theory.
The author also studies the connection of option and supply chain risk management, and constructs the supply chain risk management model based on option. Supply chain management with option can mitigate supply chain risk and increase supply chain benefit.
The study of the paper will drive the development of supply chain risk management more deeply. It's also helpful to put the risk management in supply chain and construct the risk management system.
引文
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