中国的国防支出需求和政策研究
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摘要
如何在国防部门与民用经济部门合理配置资源,是世界各国政府都必须考虑的重大现实政策问题。本文的主题是研究大国框架下的中国国防支出需求及其政策决定。期望通过对中国国防支出需求和国防支出与经济增长关系的研究,对国家财政资源的国防领域分配提供理论和实证的借鉴意义。
本研究以福利效用理论和内生增长理论为基础,通过理论模型和计量经济分析探讨中国国防支出的需求和经济效应。主要内容有:(1)中国国防支出的重新测度。通过国防支出定义的国际比较,重新测算了中国国防支出的实际供给数量;(2)中国国防支出的需求研究。讨论了中国国防支出需求总量和适度防务负担问题;(3)国防支出与中国经济增长的关系研究。基于我国国家安全环境,讨论了中国国防支出的经济效应;(4)中国国防支出的政策研究。讨论中国国防建设与经济建设协调发展的政策。
本文的创新点主要有:(1)构建了中国国防支出需求的完整理论体系。以中国国防建设“适度国防支出”为主题,从中国国防支出的实际供给数量出发,融合国防支出总量需求、相对需求以及国家安全、国防支出与经济增长的关系,在大国框架下系统研究中国国防支出的需求问题,使中国国防支出需求分析有一完整而又系统的理论体系和分析框架;(2)较准确地重新估算了中国国防支出实际供给数量,推进了国内外对中国军费估算的研究。西方国家对中国政府官方公布的国防支出数据多有疑虑,因此,重新估算中国国防支出数额成为国际学术界研究中国问题的重要课题。本文以SIPRI的国防支出定义为基础,对建国以来的中国国防支出数额进行了重新估算,这是国内学者首次对中国国防支出实际供给数额的较为准确的重新测算,这一估算,解决了横亘在国际学术界因中国国防支出数据障碍而很少涉足中国问题研究的难题;(3)理论模型中引入内生增长理论,首次采用国防战略、国家安全环境以及中国经济转型等重要变量,较为完美地解决了现有理论难以解释的重大社会变革对中国国防支出需求和经济效应的影响问题。这一创新为中国国防经济理论研究和国家国防支出宏观政策的制定提供了理论和方法上的依据。
How to allocate the rare national resources between defense and economic sectors is an important policy issue faced by every government of the world. The present thesis is intended to explore China’s defense expenditure demand and its policy making in the context of a powerful country. Based on the study of China’s defense expenditure demand and the relationship between China’s defense expenditure and economic growth, the author expects to offer some suggestions as to how to allocate China’s financial resources in the sector of national defense.
Based on the theories of welfare effect and endogenesis growth, this thesis attempts to explore China’s defense expenditure demand and economic effect by means of theoretical models as well as calculation and analysis. It consists of the following sections. Chapter Two provides a recalculation of China’s defense expenditure based on the comparison of popular definitions of defense expenditure in the world. Chapter Three and Four offer a study of the demand of China’s defense expenditure and discusses the overall demand of China’s defense expenditure and an acceptable burden of defense. Chapter Five conducts a research on the relationship between China’s defense expenditure and economic growth. Based on the national security environment of China, this chapter discusses the effect of defense expenditure on economic growth. Chapter Six focuses on China’s national defense policy regarding the coordination of China’s defense expenditure and economic growth.
The thesis is of great significance in the following aspects. First, it has set up a complete theory of China’s defense expenditure demand. Focusing on an acceptable defense expenditure, this thesis attempts to make a systematic study of China’s defense expenditure demand so as to provide a complete theory and a systematic analytical framework. To achieve this goal, the thesis combines the actual supply of China’s defense expenditure with the overall demand of China’s defense expenditure, relative demand of defense expenditure and the relationship between national security, defense expenditure and economic growth in the context of a powerful country. Secondly, it reestimates the actual supply of China’s defense expenditure and thus contributes to the estimate of China’s military expenditure conducted both at home
本研究以福利效用理论和内生增长理论为基础,通过理论模型和计量经济分析探讨中国国防支出的需求和经济效应。主要内容有:(1)中国国防支出的重新测度。通过国防支出定义的国际比较,重新测算了中国国防支出的实际供给数量;(2)中国国防支出的需求研究。讨论了中国国防支出需求总量和适度防务负担问题;(3)国防支出与中国经济增长的关系研究。基于我国国家安全环境,讨论了中国国防支出的经济效应;(4)中国国防支出的政策研究。讨论中国国防建设与经济建设协调发展的政策。
本文的创新点主要有:(1)构建了中国国防支出需求的完整理论体系。以中国国防建设“适度国防支出”为主题,从中国国防支出的实际供给数量出发,融合国防支出总量需求、相对需求以及国家安全、国防支出与经济增长的关系,在大国框架下系统研究中国国防支出的需求问题,使中国国防支出需求分析有一完整而又系统的理论体系和分析框架;(2)较准确地重新估算了中国国防支出实际供给数量,推进了国内外对中国军费估算的研究。西方国家对中国政府官方公布的国防支出数据多有疑虑,因此,重新估算中国国防支出数额成为国际学术界研究中国问题的重要课题。本文以SIPRI的国防支出定义为基础,对建国以来的中国国防支出数额进行了重新估算,这是国内学者首次对中国国防支出实际供给数额的较为准确的重新测算,这一估算,解决了横亘在国际学术界因中国国防支出数据障碍而很少涉足中国问题研究的难题;(3)理论模型中引入内生增长理论,首次采用国防战略、国家安全环境以及中国经济转型等重要变量,较为完美地解决了现有理论难以解释的重大社会变革对中国国防支出需求和经济效应的影响问题。这一创新为中国国防经济理论研究和国家国防支出宏观政策的制定提供了理论和方法上的依据。
How to allocate the rare national resources between defense and economic sectors is an important policy issue faced by every government of the world. The present thesis is intended to explore China’s defense expenditure demand and its policy making in the context of a powerful country. Based on the study of China’s defense expenditure demand and the relationship between China’s defense expenditure and economic growth, the author expects to offer some suggestions as to how to allocate China’s financial resources in the sector of national defense.
Based on the theories of welfare effect and endogenesis growth, this thesis attempts to explore China’s defense expenditure demand and economic effect by means of theoretical models as well as calculation and analysis. It consists of the following sections. Chapter Two provides a recalculation of China’s defense expenditure based on the comparison of popular definitions of defense expenditure in the world. Chapter Three and Four offer a study of the demand of China’s defense expenditure and discusses the overall demand of China’s defense expenditure and an acceptable burden of defense. Chapter Five conducts a research on the relationship between China’s defense expenditure and economic growth. Based on the national security environment of China, this chapter discusses the effect of defense expenditure on economic growth. Chapter Six focuses on China’s national defense policy regarding the coordination of China’s defense expenditure and economic growth.
The thesis is of great significance in the following aspects. First, it has set up a complete theory of China’s defense expenditure demand. Focusing on an acceptable defense expenditure, this thesis attempts to make a systematic study of China’s defense expenditure demand so as to provide a complete theory and a systematic analytical framework. To achieve this goal, the thesis combines the actual supply of China’s defense expenditure with the overall demand of China’s defense expenditure, relative demand of defense expenditure and the relationship between national security, defense expenditure and economic growth in the context of a powerful country. Secondly, it reestimates the actual supply of China’s defense expenditure and thus contributes to the estimate of China’s military expenditure conducted both at home
引文
1转引自萨缪尔森、诺德豪斯, 经济学(第 16 版,中文版)[M],萧琛等译,北京:华夏出版社,1999. 6[2]
7United Nations, Reduction of military budgets. Measurement and international reporting of military expenditures, Report of the Secretary- General [R], A/31/222/ Rev.1, New York: UN Centre for Disarmament, 1977. 27[92]。
9引自Sen,S., Military expenditure data for developing countries: Methods and measurement[A], in Lamb, G and Kallab, V., (eds.) Military Expenditure and Economic Development; A Symposium on Research Issues [C], World Bank, Washington D.C, 1992: 1-18[96]。
10Brzoska 在权威的“Handbook of Defense Economics”一书中认为 IMF 是将准军事部队有条件地列入武装力量中的[89(]Brzoska, Table 1 , p48-49),但我们对 IMF 分别于 1986 年和 2001 年出版的“Government Finance Statistics Manual”进行比较[97][98],均见其将“准军事部队”列入“公共秩序和安全”类中。因此,我们认为,在 IMF 的国防支出定义中,“准军事部队”的支出是不计入国防支出的。这一看法得到联合国拉美和加勒比海经济委员会文件的佐证[93]。
资料来源:Brzoska, M, World military expenditures [C], in Handbook of Defense Economics [A], Hartley, K., and T., Sandler (eds.), Elsevier, 1995: 49
16国家统计局,中国统计年鉴-2000 [M],北京: 中国统计出版社, 2000. 219[112]。
17国务院新闻办公室, 2000 年中国的国防[N],人民日报,2000 年 10 月 17 日[113]。
19王金秀、陈志勇,国家预算管理,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000. 59
21布莱克比和奥尔逊,军费和军火贸易的资料问题研究[C],苏米茨主编,陈炳福译,军费经济研究[A],大连: 大连理工大学出版社,1992: 1~26
27斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所,SIPRI 年鉴-1999 [M], 中国国际问题研究所译,北京:世界知识出版,2000: 397
29见 SIPRI,SIPRI 年鉴~1999,中国国际问题研究所译[M],北京:世界知识出版社,2000: 412。在该文中,王绍光引证的是杨永良的数据资料[134](杨永良,中国军事经济学概论,北京:中国经济出版社,1988 年, P148,243),我们经过对证,发现杨永良的完整表述是“国防工业投资”,而不是国防科技工业的“基建投资”。
30见彭敏主编,当代中国的基本建设(上)[M],北京:中国社会科学出版社,1989: 27, 第 1 个注释[135]。
31见彭敏主编,当代中国的基本建设(上)[M],北京:中国社会科学出版社,1989: 34。
32同上,第 56 页。引进苏联技术设备投资 76 亿元人民币,其中,国防项目占 12%。
34陈俨,国防经济非均衡研究,北京:国防大学出版社,2000. 125[140]。
36斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所, SIPRI 年鉴-1999[M],中国国际问题研究所译,北京:世界知识出版社,2000年,第 415 页。
38对外军事援助的数据资料,如未注明出处,均引自《中国人民解放军军事史要》[144]。
42上述数据源于胥光义主编,当代中国的军队后勤工作[M],北京:当代中国出版社, 1992: 553-591[145]。
43总后财务部、军事经济学院,中国人民解放军财务简史[M],北京:中国财政经济出版社,1991: 688[146]。
44同上,第 853 页;另见胥光义主编,当代中国的军队后勤工作[M],北京:当代中国出版社,1992: 577。
45总部要求对农副业生产所用固定资产、种子、化肥等生产资料进行严格的成本核算,但这不包括对投入的现役军人的用工成本的核算。
46胥光义主编,当代中国的军队后勤工作,第 573 页。
47胥光义主编,当代中国的军队后勤工作,第 583 页。
48胥光义主编,当代中国的军队后勤工作,第 604 页。
491977 年全军军工、军农帐面资金盘亏 5450 万元。见《中国人民解放军财务简史》第 741 页、第 893 页。
50胥光义主编,当代中国的军队后勤工作,第 688 页。
51胥光义主编,当代中国的军队后勤工作,第 666 页。
53以下数据,如未注明出处,均来自于总后财务部、军事经济学院,中国人民解放军财务简史,北京:中国财政经济出版社,1991 年。
54用半对数模型法计算平均增长率的方法,详见古扎拉蒂,计量经济学(上)[M],北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000. 154~158
551964 年 9 月中央军委决定改革军官薪金制度,取消军龄补助金,降低军官薪金标准,做出了《关于改革军官薪金制度的决定》,于 1965 年 2 月 11 日报经中共中央批准。
56总后财务部、军事经济学院,中国人民解放军财务简史[M],北京:中国财政经济出版社,1991.752。
57有关 20 世纪 80 年代中国国防支出变化,请参见陈炳福,“近十年中国军费支出变化的经济分析”一文(《经济研究》,1990 年第 6 期)。
60邓小平,邓小平文选[M], 第 3 卷, 北京:人民出版社,1993. 126~127[162]。
61在改革开放前 30 年的国家财政支出中,国防支出是居经济建设费之后,国家财政优先考虑的支出项目,国防支出占国家财政支出的比重长年保持在 16-18%之间[62]。
62回归关系的检验为:R2=64.85%,修正的 R2=62.89%,t=-5.76,通过了 1%的显著性检验。
68保罗·肯尼迪著,大国的兴衰 , 蒋葆英等译 , 北京 :中国经济出版社, 1989:304-305.
69Castillo, et,al, Military Expenditures and Economic Growth, RAND , MR-1112-A,2001.
70保罗·肯尼迪,大国的兴衰, 蒋葆英等译,北京:中国经济出版社,1989. 304[185]。
76Benoit, Emile, Growth and Defense in Development Countries, Economic Development and Culture Change, 1978, 26(2): 271.
84邓小平,邓小平文选[M],第3 卷, 北京:人民出版社, 1993 . 279
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7United Nations, Reduction of military budgets. Measurement and international reporting of military expenditures, Report of the Secretary- General [R], A/31/222/ Rev.1, New York: UN Centre for Disarmament, 1977. 27[92]。
9引自Sen,S., Military expenditure data for developing countries: Methods and measurement[A], in Lamb, G and Kallab, V., (eds.) Military Expenditure and Economic Development; A Symposium on Research Issues [C], World Bank, Washington D.C, 1992: 1-18[96]。
10Brzoska 在权威的“Handbook of Defense Economics”一书中认为 IMF 是将准军事部队有条件地列入武装力量中的[89(]Brzoska, Table 1 , p48-49),但我们对 IMF 分别于 1986 年和 2001 年出版的“Government Finance Statistics Manual”进行比较[97][98],均见其将“准军事部队”列入“公共秩序和安全”类中。因此,我们认为,在 IMF 的国防支出定义中,“准军事部队”的支出是不计入国防支出的。这一看法得到联合国拉美和加勒比海经济委员会文件的佐证[93]。
资料来源:Brzoska, M, World military expenditures [C], in Handbook of Defense Economics [A], Hartley, K., and T., Sandler (eds.), Elsevier, 1995: 49
16国家统计局,中国统计年鉴-2000 [M],北京: 中国统计出版社, 2000. 219[112]。
17国务院新闻办公室, 2000 年中国的国防[N],人民日报,2000 年 10 月 17 日[113]。
19王金秀、陈志勇,国家预算管理,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000. 59
21布莱克比和奥尔逊,军费和军火贸易的资料问题研究[C],苏米茨主编,陈炳福译,军费经济研究[A],大连: 大连理工大学出版社,1992: 1~26
27斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所,SIPRI 年鉴-1999 [M], 中国国际问题研究所译,北京:世界知识出版,2000: 397
29见 SIPRI,SIPRI 年鉴~1999,中国国际问题研究所译[M],北京:世界知识出版社,2000: 412。在该文中,王绍光引证的是杨永良的数据资料[134](杨永良,中国军事经济学概论,北京:中国经济出版社,1988 年, P148,243),我们经过对证,发现杨永良的完整表述是“国防工业投资”,而不是国防科技工业的“基建投资”。
30见彭敏主编,当代中国的基本建设(上)[M],北京:中国社会科学出版社,1989: 27, 第 1 个注释[135]。
31见彭敏主编,当代中国的基本建设(上)[M],北京:中国社会科学出版社,1989: 34。
32同上,第 56 页。引进苏联技术设备投资 76 亿元人民币,其中,国防项目占 12%。
34陈俨,国防经济非均衡研究,北京:国防大学出版社,2000. 125[140]。
36斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所, SIPRI 年鉴-1999[M],中国国际问题研究所译,北京:世界知识出版社,2000年,第 415 页。
38对外军事援助的数据资料,如未注明出处,均引自《中国人民解放军军事史要》[144]。
42上述数据源于胥光义主编,当代中国的军队后勤工作[M],北京:当代中国出版社, 1992: 553-591[145]。
43总后财务部、军事经济学院,中国人民解放军财务简史[M],北京:中国财政经济出版社,1991: 688[146]。
44同上,第 853 页;另见胥光义主编,当代中国的军队后勤工作[M],北京:当代中国出版社,1992: 577。
45总部要求对农副业生产所用固定资产、种子、化肥等生产资料进行严格的成本核算,但这不包括对投入的现役军人的用工成本的核算。
46胥光义主编,当代中国的军队后勤工作,第 573 页。
47胥光义主编,当代中国的军队后勤工作,第 583 页。
48胥光义主编,当代中国的军队后勤工作,第 604 页。
491977 年全军军工、军农帐面资金盘亏 5450 万元。见《中国人民解放军财务简史》第 741 页、第 893 页。
50胥光义主编,当代中国的军队后勤工作,第 688 页。
51胥光义主编,当代中国的军队后勤工作,第 666 页。
53以下数据,如未注明出处,均来自于总后财务部、军事经济学院,中国人民解放军财务简史,北京:中国财政经济出版社,1991 年。
54用半对数模型法计算平均增长率的方法,详见古扎拉蒂,计量经济学(上)[M],北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000. 154~158
551964 年 9 月中央军委决定改革军官薪金制度,取消军龄补助金,降低军官薪金标准,做出了《关于改革军官薪金制度的决定》,于 1965 年 2 月 11 日报经中共中央批准。
56总后财务部、军事经济学院,中国人民解放军财务简史[M],北京:中国财政经济出版社,1991.752。
57有关 20 世纪 80 年代中国国防支出变化,请参见陈炳福,“近十年中国军费支出变化的经济分析”一文(《经济研究》,1990 年第 6 期)。
60邓小平,邓小平文选[M], 第 3 卷, 北京:人民出版社,1993. 126~127[162]。
61在改革开放前 30 年的国家财政支出中,国防支出是居经济建设费之后,国家财政优先考虑的支出项目,国防支出占国家财政支出的比重长年保持在 16-18%之间[62]。
62回归关系的检验为:R2=64.85%,修正的 R2=62.89%,t=-5.76,通过了 1%的显著性检验。
68保罗·肯尼迪著,大国的兴衰 , 蒋葆英等译 , 北京 :中国经济出版社, 1989:304-305.
69Castillo, et,al, Military Expenditures and Economic Growth, RAND , MR-1112-A,2001.
70保罗·肯尼迪,大国的兴衰, 蒋葆英等译,北京:中国经济出版社,1989. 304[185]。
76Benoit, Emile, Growth and Defense in Development Countries, Economic Development and Culture Change, 1978, 26(2): 271.
84邓小平,邓小平文选[M],第3 卷, 北京:人民出版社, 1993 . 279
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