我国台风灾害损失分类与估计
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摘要
中国东南沿海地区是世界上受台风影响最严重的地区之一,风灾每年都造成巨额经济损失和大量人员伤亡。同时,该区域也是中国经济最发达、人口最稠密的地区。近年来,沿海地区城市化速度加快、人口增长及社会财富密集度快速增长,导致沿海地区在台风条件下的灾害易损性与灾害链的易发性大大增加。建立历史台风灾害数据库,估计台风灾害损失,对于政府采取应急反应措施和制定恢复重建计划、保险公司确定合理的保险政策具有重要意义。
本文对台风的致灾机理进行了详细的阐述,主要包括大风引起的灾害链,降雨引起的灾害链和风暴潮引起的灾害链;按照自然灾害损失的分类原则,对台风灾害造成的灾害种类进行了详细的分类,按照承灾体的不同分为受灾人口、社会经济损失和环境损失三大类,受灾人口中包括伤亡人口、紧急转移人口和无家可归人口等,社会经济损失按照部门不同又可以分为社会部门损失,生产部门损失和基础设施损失三大类,每个部门损失又分为直接损失和间接损失,环境损失包括由台风三大灾害链引发的土地盐渍化、淡水资源污染、海岸线侵蚀和水土流失等等;收集了我国历史台风灾害资料,建立了我国历史台风灾害数据库,结合台风年鉴数据库实现了台风基本信息和灾害信息的查询。
然后,对台风灾害数据进行了简单统计,建立了单项灾情指标,对单项灾情进行无量纲化处理;对台风灾情较为严重的浙江、广东、福建三省的受灾面积指标、伤亡人口指标、倒损房屋指标和直接经济损失指标建立了逐步回归方程,以作为该省一定强度台风下灾害平均水平的预估模型;建立了综合灾情指标,对台风造成的总体灾情进行评估。
China’s southeast coast is one of the regions most severely influenced by typhoons in the world. This area suffers significant casualties and huge economic losses from typhoon-caused disasters every year. The booming economy and the fast growing population in urban areas make costal cities and buildings more vulnerable to typhoon-caused disasters. Building typhoon disaster database and estimating typhoon disaster losses, make great sense in supporting government to make preparedness in event response and recovery plan and help insurance company form proper insurance policy.
A detailed description to the disaster-causing mechanism of typhoon is given, which includes typhoon wind induced disaster chain, typhoon rain induced disaster chain and typhoon surge induced disaster chain. According to the principle of natural disaster classification method, a detailed classification of typhoon disaster is made, which includes population affected, socio-economic effects and environmental effects. Population affected includes injury and death, persons evacuated and persons homeless. Socio-economic effects include social sectors loss, productive sectors loss and infrastructure loss. The effects of each sector include direct loss and indirect loss. Environmental effects include soil salinization, impacts on water quality, coastal erosion, soil erosion and so on. China typhoon disaster data is collected and China typhoon disaster database is built. Combined with typhoon yearbook database, typhoon basic information and typhoon disaster information can be queried easily.
A simple statistic to the typhoon disaster data is made, and single disaster grade index is introduced to calculate the dimensionless form of disaster data. The stepwise regression equations of area infected index, injury and death index, building collapsed and damaged index and direct economic loss index in Zhejiang Province, Guangdong Province and Fujian Province, which badly infected by typhoon, are built to predict average disaster loss under assumed typhoon with certain intensity. At last a comprehensive disaster index is introduced to give a global assessment on the disaster induced by a typhoon event.
本文对台风的致灾机理进行了详细的阐述,主要包括大风引起的灾害链,降雨引起的灾害链和风暴潮引起的灾害链;按照自然灾害损失的分类原则,对台风灾害造成的灾害种类进行了详细的分类,按照承灾体的不同分为受灾人口、社会经济损失和环境损失三大类,受灾人口中包括伤亡人口、紧急转移人口和无家可归人口等,社会经济损失按照部门不同又可以分为社会部门损失,生产部门损失和基础设施损失三大类,每个部门损失又分为直接损失和间接损失,环境损失包括由台风三大灾害链引发的土地盐渍化、淡水资源污染、海岸线侵蚀和水土流失等等;收集了我国历史台风灾害资料,建立了我国历史台风灾害数据库,结合台风年鉴数据库实现了台风基本信息和灾害信息的查询。
然后,对台风灾害数据进行了简单统计,建立了单项灾情指标,对单项灾情进行无量纲化处理;对台风灾情较为严重的浙江、广东、福建三省的受灾面积指标、伤亡人口指标、倒损房屋指标和直接经济损失指标建立了逐步回归方程,以作为该省一定强度台风下灾害平均水平的预估模型;建立了综合灾情指标,对台风造成的总体灾情进行评估。
China’s southeast coast is one of the regions most severely influenced by typhoons in the world. This area suffers significant casualties and huge economic losses from typhoon-caused disasters every year. The booming economy and the fast growing population in urban areas make costal cities and buildings more vulnerable to typhoon-caused disasters. Building typhoon disaster database and estimating typhoon disaster losses, make great sense in supporting government to make preparedness in event response and recovery plan and help insurance company form proper insurance policy.
A detailed description to the disaster-causing mechanism of typhoon is given, which includes typhoon wind induced disaster chain, typhoon rain induced disaster chain and typhoon surge induced disaster chain. According to the principle of natural disaster classification method, a detailed classification of typhoon disaster is made, which includes population affected, socio-economic effects and environmental effects. Population affected includes injury and death, persons evacuated and persons homeless. Socio-economic effects include social sectors loss, productive sectors loss and infrastructure loss. The effects of each sector include direct loss and indirect loss. Environmental effects include soil salinization, impacts on water quality, coastal erosion, soil erosion and so on. China typhoon disaster data is collected and China typhoon disaster database is built. Combined with typhoon yearbook database, typhoon basic information and typhoon disaster information can be queried easily.
A simple statistic to the typhoon disaster data is made, and single disaster grade index is introduced to calculate the dimensionless form of disaster data. The stepwise regression equations of area infected index, injury and death index, building collapsed and damaged index and direct economic loss index in Zhejiang Province, Guangdong Province and Fujian Province, which badly infected by typhoon, are built to predict average disaster loss under assumed typhoon with certain intensity. At last a comprehensive disaster index is introduced to give a global assessment on the disaster induced by a typhoon event.
引文
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2 WMO技术文件,裘国庆等译,全球热带气旋预报指南(WMO/TD-NO.560).北京:气象出版社,1995
3王喜年.风暴潮灾害及其预报与防御对策.海洋预报, 1998,15(3):26~31
4杨华庭.我国沿海带可持续发展与减轻海洋灾害.海洋预报,1998, 15(3): 12~20
5王静爱,史培军等.中国沿海自然灾害及减灾对策.北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 1995,31(3):104~109
6国家统计局,民政部.中国灾情报告(1949-1995).北京:中国统计出版社, 1995:81~86
7郭洪寿等. 1992年特大风暴潮及其监测预报.中国减灾, 1992,3(1):12~16
8梁必祺,梁经萍,温之平.中国台风灾害及其影响的研究.自然灾害学报, 1995, 14(1):84~91
9鞠笑生.台风侵袭我国南方地区而产生的风灾.灾害学, 1994, 9(2):78~82
10章淹,张义民,白建强.台风暴雨.自然灾害学报, 1995, 4(3):15~22
11陈定外.低造价房屋抗台风灾害研究.建筑科学. 1994,3:3-11
12孙炳楠,傅国宏,陈鸣,唐锦春. 94年17号台风对温州民房破坏的调查.浙江建筑. 1995, 4:19~23
13廖河山,黄诗福.滨海城市建筑工程台风灾害的新特点.厦门理工学院学报. 2006.14(1):28-32
14葛学礼,朱立新等.浙江苍南县“桑美”台风建筑灾害与抗风技术措施.工程质量. 2006.10:18-22
15杨万裕,张陆,高岭花.台州市房屋倒塌与台风关系分析及防御对策.中国气象学会2007年年会天气预报预警和影响评估技术分会场论文集,2007:2552-2557
16弓晓芸.台风作用中轻钢结构建筑的破坏及分析.工业建筑.1997.27(10):51-55
17王士奇,刘仲波.轻型门式刚架风灾破坏形式及其工程措施.钢结构. 2006(5):25-95
18弓晓芸.台风灾害造成体育场馆屋面的破坏及修复.工业建筑.1998.28(10):51-53,45-47
19张勇.输电线路风灾防御的现状与对策.华东电力. 2006.34(3):29-31
20唐斯庆,张弥等.海南电网“9.26”大面积停电事故的分析与总结.电力系统自动化.2006.30(1):1-7
21王良睦,王中道,许海燕. 9914号台风对厦门市园林树木破坏情况的调查及对策研究.中国园林, 2000(4):65-68
22台州市建设规划局调研组. 0414号台风塔吊倒塌破坏原因分析及对策措施.
23 Roodvoets. Dave. Designing a roofing system to withstand wind. Construction Specifier, 1988, V41, N10: 68-73
24 P.R. Sparks, S.D. Schiff and T.A. Reinhold. Wind Damage to Envelops of Houses and Consequent Insurance Losses. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 1994(53):145-155
25 Raju D V S and Jayanta Sinha, Vulnerability and Failure Study of Built Enviroment in Gujarat Cyclone, Nation Conference on Disaster & Technology, Manipal, 1998
26 Brian E. Lee and John Wills. Vulnerability of Fully Glazed High-Rise Buildings in Tropical Cyclones. Journal of Architectural Engineering, 2002, V8, N2:42-48
27 A.C. Khanduri, G.C. Morrow. Vulnerability of Buildings to Windstorms and Insurance Loss Estimation. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 2003(91):455-467
28 Yue Li, Bruce R. Ellingwood. Hurricane Damage to Residential Construction in the US: Importance of Uncertainty Modeling in Risk Assessment. Engineering Structure, 2006(28):1009-1018
29 Kyung Ho Lee, David V. Rosowsky. Fragility Assessment For Roof Sheathing Failure in High Wind Regions. Engineering Structure, 2005(27):857-868
30 Berke. Philip, Larsen. Terry and Ruch. Carlton. Computer System For Hurricane Hazard Assessment. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 1984, V9, N4: 259-269
31 C.S.Papacastas, W.M.Hamaguchi, H.S.Hamada, John Jaquess. Using GIS Technology to Assess Hurricane Damage. Hurricane of 1992, Lessonslearned and implications for the future
32 Powell M.D., S.H.Houston, and Ignacio Ares. Real-time damage assessment in hurricanes. 21st AMS Conference on hurricanes and tropical meteorology, Miami, FL., April 24-28, 1995:500-502.
33 Katz, Richard W. Stochastic Modeling of Hurricane Damage. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 2002, V41, N7: 754-762
34 Luky Adrianto and Yoshiaki Matsuda. Developing Economic Vulnerability Indices of Environmental Disasters in Small Island Regions. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 2002 (22):381-401
35 FEMA. Multi-Hazard Loss Estimation Methodology Hurricane Model. HAZUS-MH MR1 Technical Manual., 2003
36 ECLAC. Handbook for estimating the socio-economic and environmental effects of disasters. UN,ECLAC and The World Bank,2003
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