我国银行业海外并购的风险研究
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摘要
海外并购是中国企业走向国际化的必经之路,也是全球化背景之下的企业经营的重要举措.我国银行业的海外并购早已开始起步,成为银行业一个备受瞩目的现象。国际经验表明,在全球性和区域性金融危机过程中,银行并购机会将大大增加。亚洲金融危机之后,欧美银行一举并购了韩美银行、韩国第一银行和韩国外换银行。日本经济萧退过程中,也出现了大规模的银行并购狂潮,使市场上银行的数量锐减。中国在过去30年里积累了至少2万亿美元的外汇储备,预计这些资金将更多地用于外汇并购活动,蔓延的次贷危机恰恰迎接了这场大戏的到来。在当前美国次贷危机影响下,不少全球金融机构陷入了流动性困境。伴随着股改上市后资产规模和财务实力的极大增强,我国商业银行应该利用这个机会并很好地进行研究,重点选择一些有发展前途的银行进行并购,这也就是本文研究背景意义所在.文章从以下五个部分进行了论述:
第一章先介绍了银行海外并购风险研究的目的及意义,详述了国内外跨国并购风险的研究现状,指出在当前的经济形势之下,研究银行海外并购具有深远的意义。
第二章在有关风险及海外并购风险的概念界定的基础上,分析了银行业进行海外并购的动机。银行跨国并购是多元化动机共同驱动的结果,但其核心动机不外乎是为了获取最大化的利益。在目前次贷危机影响下,国内外经济形势为我国银行业跨国并购提供了历史性契机,这更成为当下我国银行业海外并购主要的动因之一。
第三章主要论述了有关银行海外并购风险的识别及评价。一方面海外并购是我国银行拓展业务、扩大规模、增强竞争力的有效途径,但另一方面并购本身也存在着国际政治、市场、并购操作、整合等方面的风险。文章首先论述了我国银行业海外并购存在的风险,并对各风险之间的关系以及相互间的传导进行了探讨。进而利用层次分析法和模糊评价法构建海外并购风险的评价模型,以更好的对风险进行管理。
第四章针对银行并购过程中出现的各种风险,结合风险间的关系及传导性,提出了防范各种风险的对策建议,如加强国家对外活动能力,减少政治风险;完善政府支持体系;制定合理的并购方案及整合计划等,以规避和防范风险。
第五章,通过中国工商银行收购南非标准银行20%股份这一案例进行了实证研究。在当前金融危机形势下,这对我国银行规避和防范海外并购的风险起一定的指导作用。
Oversea merger & acquisition is the only way of the Chinese enterprises' internationalization, and it's also an important measure for the enterprise operation under the globalization background. The oversea M & A of banking industry in our country has already started and become a high-profile phenomenon. International experience shows that the opportunities for M & A of banking industry will greatly increase under the global and regional financial crisis. After the Asian financial crisis, banks in Europe and America merged & acquired KorAm Bank, Korea First Bank and Korea Exchange Bank in one fell swoop. In the Japan's economic recession, there have been large-scale bank merger & acquisition tides, and the number of banks drop sharply. In the past 30 years, China has accumulated at least 2 trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves. As respected that the money will be used for more foreign exchange M & A activities, and the spread of the subprime crisis is precisely just to greet the arrival. In the current subprime crisis of the United States, many global financial institutions are in the fluidity difficulties. With the great enhancement of the asset size and financial strength after the stock market reform, Chinese commercial banks should take advantage of this opportunity and choose a number of promising banks to carry out M & A. This is the significance of this thesis. Specifically, the full text is divided into following five parts.
The first chapter introduces the purpose and significance of the risk research for oversea M & A of banks, and reviews the research situation of risk about the domestic and cross-border M & A. Then it points out that in the current economic situation, the study of oversea M & A of banks has far-reaching significance.
The second chapter analyzes the motivation of oversea M & A of banking industry based on the concept of risk and oversea M & A risk. Cross-border M &A of banking industry is the result droved by many kinds of motivation together, but the core motivation is nothing more than to maximize profit. Under the influence of the current subprime crisis, the economic situation at home and abroad provides a historic opportunity to banking industry in our country to carry out cross-border M & A,which now becomes one of the main motivations of Chinese banking industry to carry out oversea M & A.
The third chapter focuses on the risk identification and evaluation of oversea M & A of banks. On one hand, oversea M & A is an effective way to expand the scale and enhance the competitiveness for Chinese banks, but on the other hand, there are also many risks such as international politics, markets, operations, and integration. First it discusses the risk existing in the oversea M & A of banking industry in our country and researches the relationship and transfer among the risks. And then it uses analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy evaluation method to build overseas M & A risk assessment model to manage risk well.
The fourth chapter, combined with the relationship and conductivity of the risk in the process of oversea M & A, we put forward measures and proposals to guard against the risk, such as strengthening the country's external activities and reduce political risk; improving the system of government support; developing reasonable M & A plan and the integration plan in order to evade and guarding risk.
The fifth chapter is an empirical study which is the case of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China acquires the Standard Bank of South Africa 20% stake. In the current financial crisis, we hope to give certain guide to the banks in China to evade and guard risk in oversea M & A.
第一章先介绍了银行海外并购风险研究的目的及意义,详述了国内外跨国并购风险的研究现状,指出在当前的经济形势之下,研究银行海外并购具有深远的意义。
第二章在有关风险及海外并购风险的概念界定的基础上,分析了银行业进行海外并购的动机。银行跨国并购是多元化动机共同驱动的结果,但其核心动机不外乎是为了获取最大化的利益。在目前次贷危机影响下,国内外经济形势为我国银行业跨国并购提供了历史性契机,这更成为当下我国银行业海外并购主要的动因之一。
第三章主要论述了有关银行海外并购风险的识别及评价。一方面海外并购是我国银行拓展业务、扩大规模、增强竞争力的有效途径,但另一方面并购本身也存在着国际政治、市场、并购操作、整合等方面的风险。文章首先论述了我国银行业海外并购存在的风险,并对各风险之间的关系以及相互间的传导进行了探讨。进而利用层次分析法和模糊评价法构建海外并购风险的评价模型,以更好的对风险进行管理。
第四章针对银行并购过程中出现的各种风险,结合风险间的关系及传导性,提出了防范各种风险的对策建议,如加强国家对外活动能力,减少政治风险;完善政府支持体系;制定合理的并购方案及整合计划等,以规避和防范风险。
第五章,通过中国工商银行收购南非标准银行20%股份这一案例进行了实证研究。在当前金融危机形势下,这对我国银行规避和防范海外并购的风险起一定的指导作用。
Oversea merger & acquisition is the only way of the Chinese enterprises' internationalization, and it's also an important measure for the enterprise operation under the globalization background. The oversea M & A of banking industry in our country has already started and become a high-profile phenomenon. International experience shows that the opportunities for M & A of banking industry will greatly increase under the global and regional financial crisis. After the Asian financial crisis, banks in Europe and America merged & acquired KorAm Bank, Korea First Bank and Korea Exchange Bank in one fell swoop. In the Japan's economic recession, there have been large-scale bank merger & acquisition tides, and the number of banks drop sharply. In the past 30 years, China has accumulated at least 2 trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves. As respected that the money will be used for more foreign exchange M & A activities, and the spread of the subprime crisis is precisely just to greet the arrival. In the current subprime crisis of the United States, many global financial institutions are in the fluidity difficulties. With the great enhancement of the asset size and financial strength after the stock market reform, Chinese commercial banks should take advantage of this opportunity and choose a number of promising banks to carry out M & A. This is the significance of this thesis. Specifically, the full text is divided into following five parts.
The first chapter introduces the purpose and significance of the risk research for oversea M & A of banks, and reviews the research situation of risk about the domestic and cross-border M & A. Then it points out that in the current economic situation, the study of oversea M & A of banks has far-reaching significance.
The second chapter analyzes the motivation of oversea M & A of banking industry based on the concept of risk and oversea M & A risk. Cross-border M &A of banking industry is the result droved by many kinds of motivation together, but the core motivation is nothing more than to maximize profit. Under the influence of the current subprime crisis, the economic situation at home and abroad provides a historic opportunity to banking industry in our country to carry out cross-border M & A,which now becomes one of the main motivations of Chinese banking industry to carry out oversea M & A.
The third chapter focuses on the risk identification and evaluation of oversea M & A of banks. On one hand, oversea M & A is an effective way to expand the scale and enhance the competitiveness for Chinese banks, but on the other hand, there are also many risks such as international politics, markets, operations, and integration. First it discusses the risk existing in the oversea M & A of banking industry in our country and researches the relationship and transfer among the risks. And then it uses analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy evaluation method to build overseas M & A risk assessment model to manage risk well.
The fourth chapter, combined with the relationship and conductivity of the risk in the process of oversea M & A, we put forward measures and proposals to guard against the risk, such as strengthening the country's external activities and reduce political risk; improving the system of government support; developing reasonable M & A plan and the integration plan in order to evade and guarding risk.
The fifth chapter is an empirical study which is the case of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China acquires the Standard Bank of South Africa 20% stake. In the current financial crisis, we hope to give certain guide to the banks in China to evade and guard risk in oversea M & A.
引文
[1]Andrew· Sheng.Bank Restructuring:Lessons from the 1980s[M].World Bank Publications,December 1995.
[2]Robert Z.Aliber(1984).International Banking:A Survey.Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,Vol.16,No.4,Part2:Bank Market Studies,pp.66-178.
[3]John H.Dunning.Alliance Capitalism and Global Business(Routledge Studies in International Business and the World Economy,7),.[M].London:Routledge,1997.185-186
[4]Lensink,R.,and N.Hermes,2004.The short term effects of foreign bank entry on domestic bank behavior:does economic development matter?[J].Journal of Banking and Finance,28(3):553 - 568.
[5]Buck,R Steiner,and N Salazar Foreign investment in Colombia's financial sector,Journal of Development Economics,2000,63(1):157 -1961
[6]Claessens,S.,Demirguc - kunt,A.,Huizinga,H.,2001.How Does Foreign Entry Affect Domestic Banking Markets?[J].Journal of Banking & Finance,(25):891-911.
[7]Devine,James and Gary Dymski(1991):Roemer's "general" theory of exploitation is a special case,the limits of Walrasian Marxism,Economics and Philosophy,7:235-275.Roemer comments,1992(8):149-156
[8]Barajas,Adolfo,Roberto Steiner and Natalia Salazar,2000.The Impact of Liberalization and Foreign Investment in Colombia's Financial Sector[J].Journal of Development Economics,(63):157-196.
[9]金晓斌.银行并购论[M].上海财经大学出版社,1999(12):53-80
[10]孔永新.迎接全球银行购并浪潮[M].中国金融出版社,2000(12):74-86
[11]吴韦华.银行并购与中国银行业发展[M].中国财政经济出版社,2003(12):38-42
[12]毛泽盛.跨国银行的进入、绩效及其管制--以发展中国家为研究视角[M].人民出版社,2006(8):32-47
[13]曹军.银行并购问题研究[M].中国金融出版社,2005(1):25-28
[14]胡峰.银行跨国并购:理论、实证与政策协调[M].中国财政经济出版社 2005(6):78-85
[15]初叶萍,胡艳;企业并购风险识别及决策支持系统的初步框架设计[J];技术经济与管理研究;2003(5)
[16]藏秀清,张远德.并购风险的多层次权重分析研究[J].技术经济,2001(11)
[17]张振辉,达庆利;灰色系统理论在企业并购风险识别中的应用[J];科研管理;2003(6)
[18]叶厚元,邓明然.企业跨国并购风险传导的因素及特征分析[J].武汉理工大学学报,2006(9)
[19]张子刚,程志勇。跨国并购的风险防范,企业改革与管理,2004(6)
[20]徐振东.跨国并购的风险及其控制的主要途径[J].中国工业经济,2000,(05)
[21]杨培强.企业跨国并购的风险管理与防范[J].企业经济,2004(9):
[22]王中华.企业跨国并购过程中的风险管理[J]国际贸易问题,2001,(04)
[23]Berger,A.DeYoung,R.,Genay,H.,Udell,G.,,"Globalization of Financial Institutions:Evidence from Cross-Border Banking Performance,"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2000
[24]Robert J Borhgese and Borgese M&A from Planning to integration.NewYork:McGraW-Hill,2001,P51-82.
[25]吴哔.银行并购与中国银行业发展[M].中国财经经济出版社,2003(1)
[26]鲁桐,等.中国企业海外市场进入模式研究[M].经济管理出版社,2007(6):229-231
[27]朱宝宪.司并购与重组[M].清华大学出版社,2006(2):46-52
[28]丁峰.从联想并购IBM PC看“蛇吞象”的五大风险[J].新财经,2005(1)
[29]冯赫.关于中国企业跨国并购的若干思考-与20实际80年代中后期日本海外并购狂潮的比较[J].经济研究参考,2006(24)
[30]张细移.企业跨国并购后的整合风险与对策[J].管理科学文摘,2006(1)
[31]Calvo,Guillermo A.Conta gioninemer,going markets:when Wall Streetisa carrier[A].Workingpaper,University of Maryland.1999.
[32]杨青.投资评价[M].中国经济出版社,:151-152
[33]沈俊.企业风险传导条件、类型及路经研究[J].当代经济管理,2006(6)
[34]叶厚元,邓明然。企业跨国并购风险传导的因素及特征分析[J].武汉理工大学学报,2006.9
[35]王应洛.系统工程[M].机械工业出版社,2005(1):130-144
[36]陈福明.中国企业海外并购风险评估模型及防范策略[J].学术研究,2007(8)
[37]叶建木,邓明然,王洪运.企业风险传导机理研究[J].理论月刊,2005(3)
[38]Anna Nagurney,Jose Cruz,June Dong and Ding Zhang.Supply chain networks,electronic commerce,and supply side and demand side risk[J].European Journal of Operational Research,European Journal of Operational Research,Volume 164,Issue 1,1 July 2005.
[39]Choi TY,Krause D R.The supply base and its complexity:Implications for transaction costs,risk,responsiveness and innovation[J].JournalofOperationManagement,2005
[40]Jonatan Gjerdrum,Nilay Shah and Lazaros G.Papageorgiou.Fair transfer price and inventory holding policies in two-enterprise supply chains[J].European Journal of Operational Research,Production,Manufacturing and Logistics,Volume 143,Issue 3,16December 2002.
[41]冉宗荣.国企业跨国并购的整合风险及应对之策[J].国际贸易问题,2006(5)
[42]http://www.online-ma.com.cn,全球并购研究中心
[2]Robert Z.Aliber(1984).International Banking:A Survey.Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,Vol.16,No.4,Part2:Bank Market Studies,pp.66-178.
[3]John H.Dunning.Alliance Capitalism and Global Business(Routledge Studies in International Business and the World Economy,7),.[M].London:Routledge,1997.185-186
[4]Lensink,R.,and N.Hermes,2004.The short term effects of foreign bank entry on domestic bank behavior:does economic development matter?[J].Journal of Banking and Finance,28(3):553 - 568.
[5]Buck,R Steiner,and N Salazar Foreign investment in Colombia's financial sector,Journal of Development Economics,2000,63(1):157 -1961
[6]Claessens,S.,Demirguc - kunt,A.,Huizinga,H.,2001.How Does Foreign Entry Affect Domestic Banking Markets?[J].Journal of Banking & Finance,(25):891-911.
[7]Devine,James and Gary Dymski(1991):Roemer's "general" theory of exploitation is a special case,the limits of Walrasian Marxism,Economics and Philosophy,7:235-275.Roemer comments,1992(8):149-156
[8]Barajas,Adolfo,Roberto Steiner and Natalia Salazar,2000.The Impact of Liberalization and Foreign Investment in Colombia's Financial Sector[J].Journal of Development Economics,(63):157-196.
[9]金晓斌.银行并购论[M].上海财经大学出版社,1999(12):53-80
[10]孔永新.迎接全球银行购并浪潮[M].中国金融出版社,2000(12):74-86
[11]吴韦华.银行并购与中国银行业发展[M].中国财政经济出版社,2003(12):38-42
[12]毛泽盛.跨国银行的进入、绩效及其管制--以发展中国家为研究视角[M].人民出版社,2006(8):32-47
[13]曹军.银行并购问题研究[M].中国金融出版社,2005(1):25-28
[14]胡峰.银行跨国并购:理论、实证与政策协调[M].中国财政经济出版社 2005(6):78-85
[15]初叶萍,胡艳;企业并购风险识别及决策支持系统的初步框架设计[J];技术经济与管理研究;2003(5)
[16]藏秀清,张远德.并购风险的多层次权重分析研究[J].技术经济,2001(11)
[17]张振辉,达庆利;灰色系统理论在企业并购风险识别中的应用[J];科研管理;2003(6)
[18]叶厚元,邓明然.企业跨国并购风险传导的因素及特征分析[J].武汉理工大学学报,2006(9)
[19]张子刚,程志勇。跨国并购的风险防范,企业改革与管理,2004(6)
[20]徐振东.跨国并购的风险及其控制的主要途径[J].中国工业经济,2000,(05)
[21]杨培强.企业跨国并购的风险管理与防范[J].企业经济,2004(9):
[22]王中华.企业跨国并购过程中的风险管理[J]国际贸易问题,2001,(04)
[23]Berger,A.DeYoung,R.,Genay,H.,Udell,G.,,"Globalization of Financial Institutions:Evidence from Cross-Border Banking Performance,"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2000
[24]Robert J Borhgese and Borgese M&A from Planning to integration.NewYork:McGraW-Hill,2001,P51-82.
[25]吴哔.银行并购与中国银行业发展[M].中国财经经济出版社,2003(1)
[26]鲁桐,等.中国企业海外市场进入模式研究[M].经济管理出版社,2007(6):229-231
[27]朱宝宪.司并购与重组[M].清华大学出版社,2006(2):46-52
[28]丁峰.从联想并购IBM PC看“蛇吞象”的五大风险[J].新财经,2005(1)
[29]冯赫.关于中国企业跨国并购的若干思考-与20实际80年代中后期日本海外并购狂潮的比较[J].经济研究参考,2006(24)
[30]张细移.企业跨国并购后的整合风险与对策[J].管理科学文摘,2006(1)
[31]Calvo,Guillermo A.Conta gioninemer,going markets:when Wall Streetisa carrier[A].Workingpaper,University of Maryland.1999.
[32]杨青.投资评价[M].中国经济出版社,:151-152
[33]沈俊.企业风险传导条件、类型及路经研究[J].当代经济管理,2006(6)
[34]叶厚元,邓明然。企业跨国并购风险传导的因素及特征分析[J].武汉理工大学学报,2006.9
[35]王应洛.系统工程[M].机械工业出版社,2005(1):130-144
[36]陈福明.中国企业海外并购风险评估模型及防范策略[J].学术研究,2007(8)
[37]叶建木,邓明然,王洪运.企业风险传导机理研究[J].理论月刊,2005(3)
[38]Anna Nagurney,Jose Cruz,June Dong and Ding Zhang.Supply chain networks,electronic commerce,and supply side and demand side risk[J].European Journal of Operational Research,European Journal of Operational Research,Volume 164,Issue 1,1 July 2005.
[39]Choi TY,Krause D R.The supply base and its complexity:Implications for transaction costs,risk,responsiveness and innovation[J].JournalofOperationManagement,2005
[40]Jonatan Gjerdrum,Nilay Shah and Lazaros G.Papageorgiou.Fair transfer price and inventory holding policies in two-enterprise supply chains[J].European Journal of Operational Research,Production,Manufacturing and Logistics,Volume 143,Issue 3,16December 2002.
[41]冉宗荣.国企业跨国并购的整合风险及应对之策[J].国际贸易问题,2006(5)
[42]http://www.online-ma.com.cn,全球并购研究中心