嵌入消费者信心指数的消费函数建构
摘要
根据传统经济理论,消费、投资和出口是拉动一国经济的“三驾马车”,三驾马车中,尤以消费最为重要。消费作为经济增长的最终动力,对于拉动国民经济起着决定作用。
经济危机背景下,中央扩大内需的战略决策及时且意义深远,研究我国居民消费函数形式更具有理论和现实意义。当前国外消费函数理论多考虑了收入和价格等影响居民消费需求的客观因素,国内研究也多是基于国外上述理论展开的实证分析。然而传统的消费函数理论并未包含真正意义上的影响消费需求的消费者主观因素。事实上,消费者的很多主观因素,诸如消费者的心理、情感、社会、历史等因素都会在一定程度上影响消费者的消费需求,且这些因素并不能被一些客观因素完全代替或反映。针对这一问题,本文引入主观因素变量“消费者信心指数”指标,实证我国消费者信心指数与消费需求之间的关系。并基于国家统计局公布的实际数据,对我国城镇居民消费需求函数进行实证分析,在此基础上得到一些有意义的结论,如,消费需求函数不能缺少消费者心理因素等客观变量；消费者信心对消费需求具有一定的引导作用；客观因素对消费需求增长仍然起主导作用；扩大居民消费,要切实提高居民可支配收、增强城镇居民消费信心、完善社会保障体系等。
Accoriding with the traditional economic theories, consumption, investment and net export are the three main powers to drive a nation's economic development. And consumption is the most important one among these three powers. Consumtion, as the last demand, always make up most of GDP in a country. Without consumption, the economy can not operate smoothly.
In the background of the economic crisis, the government's decision to expand domestic demand in a timely and far-reaching significance to study the function of the form of China's consumer is more theoretical and practical significance. Current foreign consumption function theory, give more consideration to the impact of income and prices, consumer demand for objective factors, internal research are mostly foreign-based empirical analysis undertaken by the above-mentioned theories. However, the traditional theory of consumption function does not contain the true sense of the impact of consumer demand in the consumer element of subjectivity. In fact, lots of subjective elements, such as consumer psychology, emotional, social, historical and other factors, to some extent which will affect the consumer's spending, and these factors can not be completely replaced by a number of objective factors, or to reflect. To solve this problem, this paper introduces the subjective element variable "consumer confidence index" indicator, evidence of China's consumer confidence index and consumer demand relationship. And based on actual data released by National Bureau of Statistics on China's urban household consumption demand function for empirical analysis, on this basis to get some meaningful conclusions, such as a lack of consumer demand function of consumers of psychological factors can not be an objective variable; consumer confidence consumer demand has a certain guiding role; objective factors on the growth in consumer demand continues to play a leading role; expanding consumption, residents must raise their disposable income, enhance consumer confidence in urban residents, improve the social security system.
经济危机背景下,中央扩大内需的战略决策及时且意义深远,研究我国居民消费函数形式更具有理论和现实意义。当前国外消费函数理论多考虑了收入和价格等影响居民消费需求的客观因素,国内研究也多是基于国外上述理论展开的实证分析。然而传统的消费函数理论并未包含真正意义上的影响消费需求的消费者主观因素。事实上,消费者的很多主观因素,诸如消费者的心理、情感、社会、历史等因素都会在一定程度上影响消费者的消费需求,且这些因素并不能被一些客观因素完全代替或反映。针对这一问题,本文引入主观因素变量“消费者信心指数”指标,实证我国消费者信心指数与消费需求之间的关系。并基于国家统计局公布的实际数据,对我国城镇居民消费需求函数进行实证分析,在此基础上得到一些有意义的结论,如,消费需求函数不能缺少消费者心理因素等客观变量；消费者信心对消费需求具有一定的引导作用；客观因素对消费需求增长仍然起主导作用；扩大居民消费,要切实提高居民可支配收、增强城镇居民消费信心、完善社会保障体系等。
Accoriding with the traditional economic theories, consumption, investment and net export are the three main powers to drive a nation's economic development. And consumption is the most important one among these three powers. Consumtion, as the last demand, always make up most of GDP in a country. Without consumption, the economy can not operate smoothly.
In the background of the economic crisis, the government's decision to expand domestic demand in a timely and far-reaching significance to study the function of the form of China's consumer is more theoretical and practical significance. Current foreign consumption function theory, give more consideration to the impact of income and prices, consumer demand for objective factors, internal research are mostly foreign-based empirical analysis undertaken by the above-mentioned theories. However, the traditional theory of consumption function does not contain the true sense of the impact of consumer demand in the consumer element of subjectivity. In fact, lots of subjective elements, such as consumer psychology, emotional, social, historical and other factors, to some extent which will affect the consumer's spending, and these factors can not be completely replaced by a number of objective factors, or to reflect. To solve this problem, this paper introduces the subjective element variable "consumer confidence index" indicator, evidence of China's consumer confidence index and consumer demand relationship. And based on actual data released by National Bureau of Statistics on China's urban household consumption demand function for empirical analysis, on this basis to get some meaningful conclusions, such as a lack of consumer demand function of consumers of psychological factors can not be an objective variable; consumer confidence consumer demand has a certain guiding role; objective factors on the growth in consumer demand continues to play a leading role; expanding consumption, residents must raise their disposable income, enhance consumer confidence in urban residents, improve the social security system.
引文
[1]DION, David Pascal. Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? [J] Munich Personal RePEc Archive.22 November 2006
[2]Sydney C. Ludvigson. Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending. [J]Journal of Economic Perspectives-Volume 18, Number 2-Spring 2004-Pages 29-50
[3]DION, David Pascal UNSPECIFIED. Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? The Euro Area Case.[J] Munich Personal RePEc Archive.22 November 2006
[4]Chengze Simon Fan, Phoebe Wong. Does consumer sentiment forecasting household spending? The Hong Kong case [J]. Economics Letters 58(1998),77-84.
[5]Batchelor R, Pami D. Improving macro - economic forecasts:The role of consumer confidence[J]. Inter-national Journal of Forecasting,1998,14:71-81
[6]Garner A. Forecasting consumer spending:Should economists pay attention to consumer confidence surveys? [J]. Economic Review,1991,5:57-71.
[7]Kumar V, Robert R P Leone.John J N Gaskins. Aggregate and disaggregate sector forecasting using consumer confidence measures[J]. International Journal of Forecasting,1995,11:361-377.
[8]Carroll, C. D., Fuhrer, J. C. and Wilcox, D. W. (1994), "Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why?," American economic review, Volume 85, N.5, p.1397-1408.
[9]Howrey, E. P. (2001), "The predictive power of the index of consumer sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol.1,p.175-216.
[10]Throop, A. W. (1992), " Consumer sentiment:its causes and effects," Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), N.1, p.35-59.
[11]Souleles, N. (2001), "Consumer sentiment:Its rationality and usefulness in forecasting expenditure-Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data," NBER Working Paper 8410.
[12]Adams, F.G. and E.W. Green.1965. "Explaining and Predicting Aggregative Consumer Attitudes." International Economic Review 6(3):275-93.
[13]Mishkin, F. S. (1978), " Consumer sentiment and spending on durable goods," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, N.1:217-32.
[14]Muth, J.F. (1961), "Rational expectations and the theory of price movements," Econometrica, Vol. 51:125-179.
[15]Tobin, J. (1959), "On the predictive value of consumer intentions and attitudes," Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.41:1-11.
[16]Brown, C. (1997), "Consumer credit and the propensity to consume; Evidence from 1930," Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics, Vol.19, N.4; 17-38.
[17]Keynes, J. M. (1936), The general theory of employment, interest, and money, New York, N. Y.Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.
[18]Milo Keynes. Essays on John Maynard Keynes[G]. New York:Columbia University Press.1975.
[19]Hadijimatheou, George. Consumer Economics after Keynes:Theory and Evidence of the Consumption Function[M]. New York:St. Martin's Press,1987.
[20]Thomas Sowell. Marxism:Philosophy and Economics[M]. New York:William Morrow,1985.
[21]John Pullen. Principles of Political Economy[M]. New York:Cambridge University Press,1987.
[22]约翰.梅纳德.凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].高鸿业译.上海：商务印书馆,1999.04.
[23][美]斯皮格尔[HENRYWILLIAM SPIEGEL).经济思想的成长[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社.1999.10.
[24]马克思.资本论[M].北京：人民出版社,1975.06.
[25]龚志民.消费经济学前沿[G].北京：经济科学出版社,2002.09
[26]吕一林,邓增永.论我国居民消费需求不足的原因及对策[J].延边大学学报(社会科学版),2004,37(1)：53-58.
[27]胡雪萍.消费转型与经济发展[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社,2002.08
[28]王秀芝.消费理论的发展及其对我国扩大内需的启示[J].宜春学院学报(社会科学),2004,26(1)：41-43.
[29]孙国锋.中国居民消费行为演变及其影响因素研究[D].北京：中国财政经济出版,2004.05.
[30][美]达摩达尔.古扎拉第.计量经济学基础(上、下).中国人民大学出版社.
[31]潘监伟,徐蒙生.国外消费经济理论研究进展及评述[J].前沿,2002,(11)：19-22
[32]聂红隆.现代消费理论主要流派观点评析—兼论我国居民消费行为的影响因素[J].新余高专学报,2003,8(4)：31-34.
[33]http://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki
[34]孙元明.预期水平对消费意向和购买行为的影响分析[J].消费经济.2001.4：39-41
[35]瞿佳颖.影响我国居民消费需求的结构分析.2006.5
[36]曾广福.西方消费理论述评[J].学术界.2006.4：286-290
[37]杨茂.中国消费者信心与消费需求拉动效应的实证分析[J].经济经纬,2006,1：21-24
[38]吴文锋,胡戈游,吴冲锋.中国消费者信心指数的信号引导功能[J].系统工程理论方法应用,2004,vol.13 No.5：447-450.
[39]易丹辉.数据分析与Eviews应用.中国统计出版社.
[40]《中国统计年鉴》
[2]Sydney C. Ludvigson. Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending. [J]Journal of Economic Perspectives-Volume 18, Number 2-Spring 2004-Pages 29-50
[3]DION, David Pascal UNSPECIFIED. Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? The Euro Area Case.[J] Munich Personal RePEc Archive.22 November 2006
[4]Chengze Simon Fan, Phoebe Wong. Does consumer sentiment forecasting household spending? The Hong Kong case [J]. Economics Letters 58(1998),77-84.
[5]Batchelor R, Pami D. Improving macro - economic forecasts:The role of consumer confidence[J]. Inter-national Journal of Forecasting,1998,14:71-81
[6]Garner A. Forecasting consumer spending:Should economists pay attention to consumer confidence surveys? [J]. Economic Review,1991,5:57-71.
[7]Kumar V, Robert R P Leone.John J N Gaskins. Aggregate and disaggregate sector forecasting using consumer confidence measures[J]. International Journal of Forecasting,1995,11:361-377.
[8]Carroll, C. D., Fuhrer, J. C. and Wilcox, D. W. (1994), "Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why?," American economic review, Volume 85, N.5, p.1397-1408.
[9]Howrey, E. P. (2001), "The predictive power of the index of consumer sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol.1,p.175-216.
[10]Throop, A. W. (1992), " Consumer sentiment:its causes and effects," Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), N.1, p.35-59.
[11]Souleles, N. (2001), "Consumer sentiment:Its rationality and usefulness in forecasting expenditure-Evidence from the Michigan Micro Data," NBER Working Paper 8410.
[12]Adams, F.G. and E.W. Green.1965. "Explaining and Predicting Aggregative Consumer Attitudes." International Economic Review 6(3):275-93.
[13]Mishkin, F. S. (1978), " Consumer sentiment and spending on durable goods," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, N.1:217-32.
[14]Muth, J.F. (1961), "Rational expectations and the theory of price movements," Econometrica, Vol. 51:125-179.
[15]Tobin, J. (1959), "On the predictive value of consumer intentions and attitudes," Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.41:1-11.
[16]Brown, C. (1997), "Consumer credit and the propensity to consume; Evidence from 1930," Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics, Vol.19, N.4; 17-38.
[17]Keynes, J. M. (1936), The general theory of employment, interest, and money, New York, N. Y.Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.
[18]Milo Keynes. Essays on John Maynard Keynes[G]. New York:Columbia University Press.1975.
[19]Hadijimatheou, George. Consumer Economics after Keynes:Theory and Evidence of the Consumption Function[M]. New York:St. Martin's Press,1987.
[20]Thomas Sowell. Marxism:Philosophy and Economics[M]. New York:William Morrow,1985.
[21]John Pullen. Principles of Political Economy[M]. New York:Cambridge University Press,1987.
[22]约翰.梅纳德.凯恩斯.就业、利息和货币通论[M].高鸿业译.上海：商务印书馆,1999.04.
[23][美]斯皮格尔[HENRYWILLIAM SPIEGEL).经济思想的成长[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社.1999.10.
[24]马克思.资本论[M].北京：人民出版社,1975.06.
[25]龚志民.消费经济学前沿[G].北京：经济科学出版社,2002.09
[26]吕一林,邓增永.论我国居民消费需求不足的原因及对策[J].延边大学学报(社会科学版),2004,37(1)：53-58.
[27]胡雪萍.消费转型与经济发展[M].北京：中国财政经济出版社,2002.08
[28]王秀芝.消费理论的发展及其对我国扩大内需的启示[J].宜春学院学报(社会科学),2004,26(1)：41-43.
[29]孙国锋.中国居民消费行为演变及其影响因素研究[D].北京：中国财政经济出版,2004.05.
[30][美]达摩达尔.古扎拉第.计量经济学基础(上、下).中国人民大学出版社.
[31]潘监伟,徐蒙生.国外消费经济理论研究进展及评述[J].前沿,2002,(11)：19-22
[32]聂红隆.现代消费理论主要流派观点评析—兼论我国居民消费行为的影响因素[J].新余高专学报,2003,8(4)：31-34.
[33]http://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki
[34]孙元明.预期水平对消费意向和购买行为的影响分析[J].消费经济.2001.4：39-41
[35]瞿佳颖.影响我国居民消费需求的结构分析.2006.5
[36]曾广福.西方消费理论述评[J].学术界.2006.4：286-290
[37]杨茂.中国消费者信心与消费需求拉动效应的实证分析[J].经济经纬,2006,1：21-24
[38]吴文锋,胡戈游,吴冲锋.中国消费者信心指数的信号引导功能[J].系统工程理论方法应用,2004,vol.13 No.5：447-450.
[39]易丹辉.数据分析与Eviews应用.中国统计出版社.
[40]《中国统计年鉴》